An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 189 - 139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Which one are you now, Drak or WS?


ok, quit the trolling and grow up please. you are now on my ignore list, also you have mail
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
The area midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde islands indeed has zero model support. While upper level winds may become favorable for development, downward MJO pulse does not favor the development of strong, sustaining, organized convection. The models track the 850mb towards the northern Lesser Antilles where the AOI meets a deep-layered trough. Another thing is the 850mb wind anomalies have been slightly above average in the Caribbean which may make it harder for a circulation to form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
179. JLPR
conditions are currently favorable, because of an anticlone that has developed over the TW



Now lets see if it fires up tonight
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Canekid98:
i think it will be oarange circle at 8 tonight and then red at 2am.. then depression at 8 that night. then it will move into a hot spot 21o ssts and low wind shear allowing it to form into a weak cat1 then it will go into the EXTREMLY WARM waters of the gulf and intensify to a strong cat3 and pull an ike on us not curve to florida but go straight up SE texas as a cat2.

pretty good prediction based off of low gulf stream prediction at that time.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but it will not follow any type of time scale IMO. Conditions are not that great, and it will have to get up to pretty high latitudes to find better conditions... and with those highs there, it won't happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
177. amd
Before development chances can increase in the Atlantic, I would think that the persistent upper level high would need to move from its current position in mexico.

This upper level high has been instrumental in funneling strong northerly winds into the western Caribbean, and then an associated upper level trough then funnels strong westerly winds in the central Caribbean.
Upper level High in Mexico funneling strong northerly winds into the caribbean

I will say this though, convection and moisture has dramatically increased in the Atlantic, and the MJO change this time could be legitimate. If that big upper level high in Mexico moves into the gulf of Mexico, conditions could become much more favorable in the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's Joey B's blog today.


SUNDAY 11 AM
TYPHOON MELOR TO SLAM JAPAN... ATLANTIC SEASON MAY COME TO LIFE WITH EASTERN US MAJOR TROUGH INTERACTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

The Big Dog is looking at the slamming of Japan by Melor and then the Canadian idea, and its not that far fetched, that 6-10 days later, major amplification in the east picks up what may be Caribbean development. I can not believe there is not a tropical cyclone left in this season, because of the overall hemispheric pattern, but the point here is that there are some big ducks on the pond in the far east this week and perhaps eastern north America with cold and whats left of the tropical season.. next week

The idea that this has merit can be readily seen in the atlantic this morning as convection is increasing south of 20 north in areas where there has been very little this year.

The Long ranger looks at the el ninos since 1950 and the fact that not one had a positive SOI in September.

thanks for reading, ciao for now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
still to far out
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just my forecast :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


0 model support at the moment 456, i do see some slight turning on visible imagery as noted by tpc this afternoon but again until a core with some deep thunderstorm activity gets going iam not to concerned. The caribbean for the most part this season has been shut down with strong westerlies due to a few factors one of them being the weak/moderate nino in place which creates strong shear at lower latitudes. Only thing really that has a chance so i guess its worth keeping an eye on.


Frankly I don't really want to hear anything you have to say, If you read my blog you wouldnt be calling me a wishcaster and reinstating what I already know.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Canekid98:
i think it will be oarange circle at 8 tonight and then red at 2am.. then depression at 8 that night. then it will move into a hot spot 21o ssts and low wind shear allowing it to form into a weak cat1 then it will go into the EXTREMLY WARM waters of the gulf and intensify to a strong cat3 and pull an ike on us not curve to florida but go straight up SE texas as a cat2.

pretty good prediction based off of low gulf stream prediction at that time.
whoa your way ahead of yourself there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Haha, Weather456 that's what you get for backing up for him. Hurricane23 was a nobody back a few years ago when he was plagerizing people's work and he was a wishcaster also, now he has gotten a "fancy job" he feels he is above everyone even the one person that stood up for him.


huh? I don't really know what I said to tick off anyone. Geeze.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


I am not wishcasting anything, I stated that not all the models are showing the same thing, so if the GFS is not handling the upper environment very well then so are all the other models.

I don't know why you choose to call me a wishcaster when I have been reasonable in what
I say.


0 model support at the moment 456, i do see some slight turning on visible imagery as noted by tpc this afternoon but again until a core with some deep thunderstorm activity gets going iam not to concerned. The caribbean for the most part this season has been shut down with strong westerlies due to a few factors one of them being the weak/moderate nino in place which creates strong shear at lower latitudes. Only thing really that has a chance so i guess its worth keeping an eye on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:
Quoting Weather456:
Circulation is pretty good in that region

and so is vorticity

What is the difference? I looked it up and they sounded the same.




both are basically the same but there is a difference in calculation and timing of the 2 images.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12N/39W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Weather456:
Circulation is pretty good in that region

and so is vorticity

What is the difference? I looked it up and they sounded the same.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i think it will be oarange circle at 8 tonight and then red at 2am.. then depression at 8 that night. then it will move into a hot spot 21o ssts and low wind shear allowing it to form into a weak cat1 then it will go into the EXTREMLY WARM waters of the gulf and intensify to a strong cat3 and pull an ike on us not curve to florida but go straight up SE texas as a cat2.

pretty good prediction based off of low gulf stream prediction at that time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks CCHS...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
162. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting ElConando:


Got it, to anyone, including you CCHS, how is MJO and NAO panning out for this week and the next?




MJO likes to travel generally counterclockwise around this graph. The way it turned yesterday suggests another little circle may occur near the area (west Pacific) it has been stuck since Ketsana. I think The MJO getting stuck or congested like this for longer than usual time has thrown off the slosh of earth a touch, possibly help setting off a chain reaction of way more than normal earthquakes.. (any grad students looking for a thesis idea?) Was hoping it was heading out of this area but may hang around a few more days..

Forecast track runs it right over to the Atlantic, but it doesn't look very realistic without a little circle 1st, as sharp as it turned yesterday..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
23 little harsh there huh
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Patrap:
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)







Thanks Patrap
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting hurricane23:


Stop the wishcasting brother i can read models lol, if iam allowed to i think strong shear might still be present regardless of what the models are showing. Very broad disorganized tropical wave with slight potential at the moment. Not really concerned until a core with some deep thunderstorm activity gets going.


I am not wishcasting anything, I stated that all the models are showing the same thing, so if the GFS is not handling the upper environment very well then so are all the other models.

I don't know why you choose to call me a wishcaster when I have been reasonable in what I say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Do you have any predictions regarding if we will see another named storm or not this year?


Can't be ruled out since the long-range models do show a possible two to three week window for rather favorable conditions in the Caribbean and SE Gulf come mid-October to early November.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
149. hurricaneseason2006 6:10 PM GMT on October 04, 2009
hurricane23 is a biased forecaster, he needs to go back to school to learn how to objectively forecast the tropics. He has been wrong all season long.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


but he is a forecaster and when we put all the forecasts together made by the forecasters we come to a reasonable forcast no one is sayin anything is coming only that a window of possible dev could open the next few days if things play out
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Orcasystems:

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Daily Chuckles in Comments section


thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting Weather456:


That's where your wrong. All of the models show the same upper environment, dont just think becuz the GFS shows what you didnt wanted to see, its wrong.


Stop the wishcasting brother i can read models lol, if iam allowed to i think strong shear might still be present regardless of what the models are showing. Very broad disorganized tropical wave with slight potential at the moment. Not really concerned until a core with some deep thunderstorm activity gets going.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Daily Chuckles in Comments section
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Hurricane2006-
mail.



So, does anyone have an image of the wave in the Atlantic we are monitoring?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting hurricane23:
GFS has done quite poorly this season when it comes to upper conditions.

Yeah, and that includes the MJO...monster-sized grain of salt to go with that MJO forecast beyond a day or three out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Haven't checked the gauge. Prolly 1/2 inch in the last hour.

Prolly get to an inch an hour here in the next few frames of this plot.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MJO moved very little...still forecasted to spike our way by GFS. If it doesn't happen I'll be happy, but probably not to the extent of an excessive celebration penalty enforced on the kickoff (target: Press)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Haven't checked the gauge. Prolly 1/2 inch in the last hour.


oh alright, well try to stay dry
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting cchsweatherman:


According to the CFS model (which I have found more reliable with MJO forecasting than the GFS), the downward MJO pulse would continue about another week before a more upward pulse arrives for mid to late October which would make it more favorable for convection to develop.


Do you have any predictions regarding if we will see another named storm or not this year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
GFS has done quite poorly this season when it comes to upper conditions.


All of the models show the same upper environment, don't just think because the GFS shows what you didn't wanted to see, its wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


ha yeah,

how much rain have you had?



Haven't checked the gauge. Prolly 1/2 inch in the last hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS has done quite poorly this season when it comes to upper conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Repost

Pretty much everyone from the Lesser Antilles to the GOM should watch this one. This is the reason why low shear will take over through 5 days, regardless if where the wave goes.

200 mb winds - 120 hrs



Thanks for the supporting illustration.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
134
of coarse models are always used for guidance only and donot depict final outcome things will and can change
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with that the chance for dev increases as well keep yer head up and yer eyes wide open


Unlike 2005 if a storm were to hit Florida the same way as Wilma, (not strength wise just track) it will likely get torn apart by shear either just before or a little after it exits Florida. Thats the way the shear pattern looks for now. East Florida looks protected from a hit for now, however West coast Florida still has its greater opportunities.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



It's a minor talent....

Still dumping rain ATM.


ha yeah,

how much rain have you had?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201

Viewing: 189 - 139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.