An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tornadodude:


oh wow, that has to be annoying. the forecast here calls for low 60's throughout this week with chances of rain
Sometimes in Dec/Jan we have a few nights and early mornings where it might get anywhere from maybe 64-68 degrees but they are few and far between. It's nice when it goes down to mid 70's during the day in the "winter".
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238. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


and then there are trolls......


LOL.....he loves me doesn't he? There's a reason I have him on ignore.

"Favors them"...LMAO.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Temperature here now is 90 degrees. Hot !


oh wow, that has to be annoying. the forecast here calls for low 60's throughout this week with chances of rain
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


I would make like Levi32, Weatherguy03 and MichaelSTL and split.


I seem to recall that MichaelSTL got permabanned (back when banning was taken seriously) or something to that effect.
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Quoting tornadodude:


well I hope you get more rain then, it is kind of chilly here. 60 degrees
Temperature here now is 90 degrees. Hot !
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Quoting StormW:
This chart will give you a good idea of when we can see a possible upswing in activity. The further away from the center of the chart, the stronger the upward motion pulse of the MJO. We here in the Atlantic Basin, GOMEX, and Caribbean are interested in when the MJO moves into octants 8, 1, and 2. The most activity is notable when the MJO is in octants 1&2. On the second graphic, you'll notice this, as you can compare the activity we had back in August, with the position of the MJO on the chart.





the MJO spiked around the 14 of August, Ana, Bill and Claudette
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Fantastic rain earlier this morning with lots of thunder and lightning. Sun is out now and kinda windy but it's nice. We need the rain.


well I hope you get more rain then, it is kind of chilly here. 60 degrees
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
NO!

A downcaster is someone who looks at both side of the spectrum but only chooses the side that favors them and ignores the other half. Eg. IKE

A wishcaster is the exact opposite. Eg. Reedzone.

A forecaster is one who weighs both sides and make reasonable judgements based on the available information.
And which category do you fall in ?
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Quoting Weather456:



lol lol lol that's a good one. I'm tempted to tell you the faith of each significant storm in past, but that would be wrong of me. Religion is a very sensitive subject, that, politics, race and tropical development. lol
on this site, tropical developement is number 1 on the list
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
NO!

A downcaster is someone who looks at both side of the spectrum but only chooses the side that favors them and ignores the other half. Eg. IKE

A wishcaster is the exact opposite. Eg. Reedzone.

A forecaster is one who weighs both sides and make reasonable judgements based on the available information.


and then there are trolls......
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting tornadodude:


so how goes the weather for you?
Fantastic rain earlier this morning with lots of thunder and lightning. Sun is out now and kinda windy but it's nice. We need the rain.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I didn't mean the one disagreeing was a wishcaster. What I meant was whoever they are disagreeing with. Now, did I say that right ? If I disagree with your forecast then I would say you are a wishcaster.


oh ok, I see what you mean, good point
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF shows a nice trough in the east(just 4 U, JFVWS), and the Atlantic wave dying over the eastern Caribbean and nothing else through Oct. 14th.

It must be right too, I heard recently the ECMFW is 99.9% accurate. It was crazy people betting their lives on it's accuracy and all....=D sorry just picking at yeh WS
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting tornadodude:


IMO it isnt the disagreeing that makes someone a downcaster, I think a lot of it has to do with the way people disagree. it is one thing to politely tell someone that you do not agree with his forecast, and maybe even show something to back it up. but it is another thing to just flat out tell someone that he is wrong and not back up that statement with anything. sometimes I think those who repeatedly disagree are just looking to start a "fight."
I didn't mean the one disagreeing was a wishcaster. What I meant was whoever they are disagreeing with. Now, did I say that right ? If I disagree with your forecast then I would say you are a wishcaster.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yep.


so how goes the weather for you?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It seems to me that if you disagree with someones forecast then you are a wishcaster/downcaster. I think you and he both forecast what you perceive things to be.
i dont call them wishcasters or downcasters.. just a difference of opinions
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Quoting tornadodude:


IMO it isnt the disagreeing that makes someone a downcaster, I think a lot of it has to do with the way people disagree. it is one thing to politely tell someone that you do not agree with his forecast, and maybe even show something to back it up. but it is another thing to just flat out tell someone that he is wrong and not back up that statement with anything. sometimes I think those who repeatedly disagree are just looking to start a "fight."
Yep.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It seems to me that if you disagree with someones forecast then you are a wishcaster/downcaster. I think you and he both forecast what you perceive things to be.


IMO it isnt the disagreeing that makes someone a downcaster, I think a lot of it has to do with the way people disagree. it is one thing to politely tell someone that you do not agree with his forecast, and maybe even show something to back it up. but it is another thing to just flat out tell someone that he is wrong and not back up that statement with anything. sometimes I think those who repeatedly disagree are just looking to start a "fight."
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting StormW:
I'll make another point...folks need to think before calling 456 a wishcaster. I take it most would agree they like my forecasting?

And I know 456 has done a darn good job.

With that said, where do you think he got some of his forecasting skills? (Not trying to brag, just stating fact).
It seems to me that if you disagree with someones forecast then you are a wishcaster/downcaster. I think you and he both forecast what you perceive things to be.
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Quoting 789:
yes and thanks for loaning out your crayola box to nhc


Phew. Glad I found it. It isn't easy to find this place.

NHC says they'll give the crayola box back sometime in December. Said they may need it for a little while longer.


456 - Glad you took it the way I intended...
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Quoting Weather456:


Levi left due to some personal and family issues, not the blog. I think he was caught up in moving. Second, if you hate the blog so much, you can always leave, it does not give you the right to keep "attacking people" because if you do, you are only practicing what you preach.
Just what I wanted to say but afraid to get banned again for replying to a "troll".
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Well here is a strange one for ya....someone was just able to set off the SAME alert at NWS-CAE and play about 10 seconds of someone having sex!!!!! We don't get that everyday, thats for sure!!! So if any of you are working for the NWS and someone from S Carolina applies for a job next week..BEWARE!!
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214. 789
Quoting Dakster:
I'm looking for the paranoid schizophrenic multiple personality blog that talks about the weather.

Is this the right place?
yes and thanks for loaning out your crayola box to nhc
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
213. IKE
12Z ECMWF shows a nice trough in the east(just 4 U, JFVWS), and the Atlantic wave dying over the eastern Caribbean and nothing else through Oct. 14th.
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212. 789
Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurricane23:
GFS has done quite poorly this season when it comes to upper conditions.


Well, I have to disagree on that...between the NOGAPS, CMC and GFS...the GFS has performed better. In fact, I think the Navy needs to overhaul the NOGAPS. I've been comparing my forecasts against the GFS shear, and though it hasn't been exactly perfect, it's done better than 90%. CMC has had shear in place most of the time...even where we've had development.

And looking at the forecast shear...the models have been consistent over the past 3 days at showing shear relaxing over the GOMEX and western Caribbean at about the same time the MJO upward motion sticks its nose into things.

If that current wave, or anything makes it to the Gulf or W. Caribbean near 10-17 OCT, then there is a very decent chance at seeing something develop. Period. Especially if the MJO makes it to octants 1&2 on the RMM1.
howdy & excellent thanks
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
Quoting Dakster:



Just out of curiousity, waht faith are hurricanes? (Christian, Jewish, Mulsim, Hindu???)

j/k 456 - I know it was a typo.



lol lol lol that's a good one. I'm tempted to tell you the faith of each significant storm in past, but that would be wrong of me. Religion is a very sensitive subject, that, politics, race and tropical development. lol
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Ok guys, sorry for the troll feeding earlier, I tend to let it get under my skin when I should just ignore them. my apologies. I guess my point is that I dont care if people criticize other's forecasts, but the way some people do this can be pretty rude, imo.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


I saw your mail but really don't want me to reply. I have been following this blog since it began let me tell you it has become a joke and it makes me angry. If I choose to say something, poeple think I'm attacking them, I am being honest. This blog is a JOKE. Poeple calling persons like Weather456 a wishcaster when he is one of the most reasonable persons on here, even Dr. Masters recognizes multiple times, even recently on 1 October with his outlook. Drak making fun of StormW and Levi32. Hurricane23 acting like he is the best forecaster. IKE crying like a baby all season long, no educated forecasts just a bunch of biased information and WS is the topping on the cake. This blog is nothing but a joke and if I was StormW and Weather456, I would make like Levi32, Weatherguy03 and MichaelSTL and split. Their talent should not be wasted here.


Levi left due to some personal and family issues, not the blog. I think he was caught up in moving. Second, if you hate the blog so much, you can always leave, it does not give you the right to keep "attacking people" because if you do, you are only practicing what you preach.
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Quoting Weather456:
StormW,

also the vertical shear by the GFS verified excellent for July, August and September, the areas where low shear was forecasted for the respect months is where all 6 storms develop and the areas where the GFS forecast high wind shear is where Ana, Danny, Erika, Fred and TD 8 all met their faith.



Just out of curiousity, waht faith are hurricanes? (Christian, Jewish, Mulsim, Hindu???)

j/k 456 - I know it was a typo.
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I'm looking for the paranoid schizophrenic multiple personality blog that talks about the weather.

Is this the right place?
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StormW,

also the vertical shear by the GFS verified excellent for July, August and September, the areas where low shear was forecasted for the respect months is where all 6 storms develop and the areas where the GFS forecast high wind shear is where Ana, Danny, Erika, Fred and TD 8 all met their faith.
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201. beell
Quoting weatherman874:
whats the spin by Galveston about to go into the Gulf?


funkyradar-no spin!
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Quoting TexNowNM:
Leave WeatherStudent alone. He is not the one trying to pick a fight.
I agree with that. He only asked Drak's opinion on something and certain folks tried to turn it into a major event.
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Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurricane23:
GFS has done quite poorly this season when it comes to upper conditions.


Well, I have to disagree on that...between the NOGAPS, CMC and GFS...the GFS has performed better. In fact, I think the Navy needs to overhaul the NOGAPS. I've been comparing my forecasts against the GFS shear, and though it hasn't been exactly perfect, it's done better than 90%. CMC has had shear in place most of the time...even where we've had development.

And looking at the forecast shear...the models have been consistent over the past 3 days at showing shear relaxing over the GOMEX and western Caribbean at about the same time the MJO upward motion sticks its nose into things.

If that current wave, or anything makes it to the Gulf or W. Caribbean near 10-17 OCT, then there is a very decent chance at seeing something develop. Period. Especially if the MJO makes it to octants 1&2 on the RMM1.


do i have to put stuff in my hurricane box for the month of october..i live in sfla...
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Leave WeatherStudent alone. He is not the one trying to pick a fight.
Member Since: October 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
whats the spin by Galveston about to go into the Gulf?
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Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurricane23:
GFS has done quite poorly this season when it comes to upper conditions.


Well, I have to disagree on that...between the NOGAPS, CMC and GFS...the GFS has performed better. In fact, I think the Navy needs to overhaul the NOGAPS. I've been comparing my forecasts against the GFS shear, and though it hasn't been exactly perfect, it's done better than 90%. CMC has had shear in place most of the time...even where we've had development.

And looking at the forecast shear...the models have been consistent over the past 3 days at showing shear relaxing over the GOMEX and western Caribbean at about the same time the MJO upward motion sticks its nose into things.

If that current wave, or anything makes it to the Gulf or W. Caribbean near 10-17 OCT, then there is a very decent chance at seeing something develop. Period.


Thank you

This is from my October Outlook, the shear section

Models have differed on the vertical wind shear forecast for next 15-30 days over the climatological development areas of the Caribbean. The Climate Forecast System (CFS), shows above average shear for the region while the Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows low shear values through mid-October. I will have to go with the GFS due its excellent handle on long-term shear and the fact that lower shear is product of upward MJO pulses. This lower shear may allow some development over the extremely warm waters of the Western Caribbean. Beyond October 31, an increase in westerlies associated with cool season troughiness will likely shut down development basin wide. However, I would not discount a subtropical storm where the jet splits.
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Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurricane23:
GFS has done quite poorly this season when it comes to upper conditions.


Well, I have to disagree on that...between the NOGAPS, CMC and GFS...the GFS has performed better. In fact, I think the Navy needs to overhaul the NOGAPS. I've been comparing my forecasts against the GFS shear, and though it hasn't been exactly perfect, it's done better than 90%. CMC has had shear in place most of the time...even where we've had development.

And looking at the forecast shear...the models have been consistent over the past 3 days at showing shear relaxing over the GOMEX and western Caribbean at about the same time the MJO upward motion sticks its nose into things.

If that current wave, or anything makes it to the Gulf or W. Caribbean near 10-17 OCT, then there is a very decent chance at seeing something develop.
Thanks for your input.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Hello WS/Drak


Ummm maybe I'm wrong but WS and Drak aren't the same person. It's very easy to tell WS can't write or spell usually.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.