An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormpetrol:

Is this a quikscat of Grace? Where is the circulation?

its there somewhere I am sure its there, maybe.
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1138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


INV/91L/XX
MARK
12N/46W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53844

Is this a quikscat of Grace? Where is the circulation?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting Cotillion:


I think we should put Grace next to it. Melor might dissipate in hysterics of laughter.

Grace:(in a high squeaky voice) Hi I'm Grace, who are you.
Melor:(In a deep booming voice) Hi Grace I'm Melor, what you trying to be , a hurricane......hahahahahahahahaha cough cough cough aaarrrrrhhhhh. SPLASH.
Grace: Melor...Melor... oh no he's dead
Lol
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grace has an eye... remember carlos in EPAC it was a small but deadly curculation cat3. + my grandma lives in a town just S of Londen seems to be headed that way.
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I am hoping some of the florida panhandle rain makes it further east. We only have 40%chance.
Why is the European imagery so far out of sync? I'm surprised their imagery doesn't update at the same rate as ours. Do we just not get theirs? the IR eye is pretty far from the TS marker and the winds posted by Ike look off.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, compare it to the real nasty storm, Typhoon Melor.


I think we should put Grace next to it. Melor might dissipate in hysterics of laughter.
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1126. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


Spot the big nasty storm.


May reach the north pole by the end of the week.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Cotillion:


Spot the big nasty storm.

Yeah, compare it to the real nasty storm, Typhoon Melor.
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Spot the big nasty storm.
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Quoting Dakster:


Good Morning...

I would have thought you would have referenced a different part of your anatomy...

he doesn't want to get banned again
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Quoting StormW:


It's the image from OSI SAF QuikSCAT 25-km.

The little donut thingy is Grace.

Posted it cause...where is the surface circulation? Where are the strongest winds?

Tropical storm my foot.

Agree with you 100%, I think they are just "trying" to get there numbers up.
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1121. Dakster
Quoting StormW:


It's the image from OSI SAF QuikSCAT 25-km.

The little donut thingy is Grace.

Posted it cause...where is the surface circulation? Where are the strongest winds?

Tropical storm my foot.


Good Morning...

I would have thought you would have referenced a different part of your anatomy...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10315
Tropical Storm Grace... is actually... Temperate Squall Grace...

Someone just got the TS initials wrong.
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1119. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Dumping rain here again this morning.

Pretty much sux.


Raining here too. Had nearly an inch since it started last night.

Warm...muggy....miserable weather.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1118. IKE
Bastardi...I would be embarrassed to actually sign my name to an advisory on this, given history.

LOL.
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1117. Relix
I am fairly sure 91L won't become anything to be honest. Will probably be a nice rain event here in the islands, if even that
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Dumping rain here again this morning.

Pretty much sux.
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Joe B. This a.m.


MONDAY 7:30 AM
TYPHOON MELOR THE MAJOR NEWS ITEM WEATHERWISE.

The super typhoon in the Pacific will deal Japan a harsh midweek blow with the track over or very near Tokyo on Thursday. There is opportunity to see "linkage" here to the western hemisphere pattern as the tropical wave in the atlantic near 50 west should be near Puerto Rico by Thursday. If it can stay north of the islands, this does have a chance to be something that can reach the southeast coast and then turn northeast early next week in front of the major cold shot that will envelope the plains later this week and the east for a time next week. Remember, Tokyo is at the latitude of Hatteras. It is interesting to note that the GFS, though not via tropical systems, does have a storm in the mid atlantic coastal waters early next week.

I have wasted enough time with Grace. you are more than welcome to try to justify, in your mind, why this should be named. This is about as egregious example of late season naming in the middle of nowhere as I have ever seen.

Look at the pic of this ( if you can find it) and ask if that was off the coast of NJ, given what you saw with other storms, if it would have been named. I would be embarrassed to actually sign my name to an advisory on this, given history.

No Melor, that of course is a real storm with real implications as far as Japan. It has been a very quiet Pacific season overall, but for Japan, the intensity of this storm will make up for it. In terms of the US, notice how several days later the big trough comes into the east with action near the east coast... as the far/east Pacific demonstrate again why one should pay attention to all the weather worldwide to try to get a jump on events elsewhere.

Thanks for reading, ciao for now *****
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1114. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GRACE...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH AND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1112. IKE
LOL at that quikscat on Grace~
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
From my blog

Tropical storm forced winds extends outwards only 50 miles and thus is not readily seen on QuikSCAT imagery.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1109. IKE
Quoting StormW:


It's the image from OSI SAF QuikSCAT 25-km.

The little donut thingy is Grace.

Posted it cause...where is the surface circulation? Where are the strongest winds?

Tropical storm my foot.


That's what I was thinking you were saying.

The NHC has been questioned more in 2009, then ever on here.

They mention 90L...drop it...start mentioning it again, but say development is unlikely. I wake up this morning and they have it listed as a 60...and now 70 mph TS.

They seem a little unsure of themselves in 2009.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Grace: from nothing of real interest to a 60KT tropical storm overnight. At a timewhen all the models say nothings going to develops, Over 20C water? When all the European sailboats are making their way to Las Palmas to cross over next month.
Crazy....
Anybody remember TS epilon from I think 2005..new years storm that kind of wandered around for a week in the eastern atlantic and NHC keep saying it was going to dissapate until they were saying "we know we've said this before"
How do you forcast something thats not even supposed to form in the first place?
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
Quoting StormW:


It's the image from OSI SAF QuikSCAT 25-km.

The little donut thingy is Grace.

Posted it cause...where is the surface circulation? Where are the strongest winds?

Tropical storm my foot.


They tried to make for lost time.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1105. IKE
Quoting StormW:
What a joke.



So...what is it? I haven't been following it.

Looking at that map you posted...not much.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Tropical Invest 91L and Grace are born

BBL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1101. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning, Ike


Forgot to say good morning to U.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Grace is Miss Independent

LINK
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Good Morning Senior Chief
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http://www.sat24.nl/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

Nice Grace animation

Greetings from the Netherlands ;)
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Quoting StormW:
Anyone know why the Navy doesn't have 91L on their site?


Don't know really and it's not on their back up site either.

Morning BTW
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
TS Grace Storm Track:
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Quoting mcswains:
Hello everyone! Posting from Okinawa Japan. Any change in Melor?

No real change yet. Still a beast.


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1090. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "PEPENG" has slightly intensified as it remains almost stationary and still threatens Extreme Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #21
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Tropical Storm Pepeng (Parma) located at 20.0ºN 119.2ºE or 220 kms north northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 km/h (55 kts) with gusts up to 135 km/h (70 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Norte

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Sur
2.Abra
3.Apayao
4.Northern Cagayan
5.Calayan Group of Islands
6.Babuyan Group of Islands
7.Batanes Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.La Union
2.Benguet
3.Mountain Province
4.Ifugao
5.Kalinga
6.Rest of Cagayan

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signals #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
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1089. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon Melor east of extreme northern Luzon has entered the Philippine Area Of Responsibility and is named "QUEDAN".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Quedan (Melor) located at 19.5ºN 134.3ºE or 1,130 km east southeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 210 km/h (110 kts) with gusts up to 250 km/h (135 kts).

Additional Information
===========================
This disturbance is still too far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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