An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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289. IKE
HPC 6 day forecast...



and 7 day forecast...shows a 1036mb high heading SE over the northern plains...

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I am getting the impression that there is a bit of a state of denial about Melor possible being a threat to Tokyo. At one point they actually had the track taking a little jog out to sea around Tokyo, like there was some kind of invisible hurricane shield around it.

Should people in Tokyo perhaps be taking more notice of that thing?
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287. IKE
Houston afternoon discussion...

"AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A 1039 MB HIGH
CENTER PUSHING THIS FRONT WHILE GFS INDICATE A 1040 MB CENTER. WE
MAY GET A SQUALL LINE SCENARIO WITH THIS FRONT CONSIDERING
STRENGTH OF FRONT AND AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT."
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
285. IKE
NO.LA. long-term....

"TOWARD MIDWEEK...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH TEXAS. AS THIS
LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...
WITH MODEL FORECASTS BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH 6 TO 12 HOURS EACH
WAY FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE THE FAR
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED."
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Are any of you monitoring the track of Melor? It looks like close to a direct hit on Tokyo Wednesday evening as a cat 1. I would like to see where some of the other models are taking it, but the WU page only shows a track for GFS in this part of the world.

My favorite symphony orchestra is arriving some time Tuesday for a Thursday evening tour concert, and I am wondering what they are getting themselves into.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Just sent Portlight.org an email about these people here.

Paul, I'm Michael. I'm under screen name RitaEvac on the tropical blog. There's an issue in Galveston county near the Bay. Have some people that are about to lose everything from Ike a year later. Here is a article from today's newspaper in the Galveston County Daily news. This one guy was asked by an inspector if he had any solultions of what he's going to do and he responed that he should just put a bullet in his head. He's living in a shed with no ventilation and no electricity. Some of the donations to overseas needs to go to our own in the US.

http://galvestondailynews.com/story.lasso?ewcd=4d559fe84a25ea30


This is sad.
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Quoting Weather456:


You can always come across on a boat. My goal really is visit all Caribbean territories in my lifetime, next in line is Mexico.
That's even worse. I love to fish and always get seasick. I'll figure it out some day. I will fly but don't like it. Whenever you come to Cayman let me know.
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Just sent Portlight.org an email about these people here.

Paul, I'm Michael. I'm under screen name RitaEvac on the tropical blog. There's an issue in Galveston county near the Bay. Have some people that are about to lose everything from Ike a year later. Here is a article from today's newspaper in the Galveston County Daily news. This one guy was asked by an inspector if he had any solultions of what he's going to do and he responed that he should just put a bullet in his head. He's living in a shed with no ventilation and no electricity. Some of the donations to overseas needs to go to our own in the US.

http://galvestondailynews.com/story.lasso?ewcd=4d559fe84a25ea30


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Quoting TexNowNM:


I know. It is annoying. What's the deal? Admin, can't you do something about this?

Oh, and in reference to blog entry 240. They are mean... and they are unwell.

personal vendettas. plain and simple.
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So I emailed one of my professors about doing my federal work study (FWS) and this is what he had to offer for me to do:

Matt-

How many hours per week is your work study?
What I'm thinking about having you work on is maintaining
the flow of weather data into the departmental computers and
other related tasks. You would have to learn a lot
about the computers, data, and software, which would
likely be very valuable for your career. We have had someone
in the department taking care of these tasks (Ben Cotton)
for many years (who started out doing this as an undergrad)
who is leaving the department very soon, so there is a
need for someone to take over these tasks. I don't know
how these work study programs operate, but I'm working with
the department head (Prof. Agee) and his assistant (Dee Gillespie)
to set up a position for you. Any information that you can
provide me about your federal work study award would be helpful.
Please let me know if you have any questions, talk to you later!

Baldwin
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have never been to any of the other islands due to the fact that I HATE to fly but maybe one day I will visit other islands.


You can always come across on a boat. My goal really is visit all Caribbean territories in my lifetime, next in line is Mexico.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You are welcome anytime. Caribbean people are very hospitiable(???) and one of the best assests they have.
Yes we are you are welcome culebra pr usa
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Quoting SouthALWX:
annoyance.. someone is intentionally going through and forcing all of tornadodude's posts to be minimized .. well you're wasting your time because my boredom allows for such sillyness and I'm "+"ing all those things you "-"ed so hah =P


I know. It is annoying. What's the deal? Admin, can't you do something about this?

Oh, and in reference to blog entry 240. They are mean... and they are unwell.
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Quoting StormW:


No...but I did have the chance to get close to one of the caves...the resort we were at tokk us out on their small craft, and let some of us dive off the cliffs. I wnted to dive so bad...but my arm was in a cast.
Where did you stay ?
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Quoting StormW:


I think she means the red line at the bottom of the animation.

ah =P i still think it's EWRC too =P
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Quoting Weather456:
Have you ever been to any of the islands in the Caribbean ? The water is breathtaking. Every one has it's own distinctive thing about it. Cayman has no mountains but we have a bluff, caves blow holes and lots of other things.

I would like to experience those cave blow holes. I've been to Barbados, Saint Maarten, the BVI - Tortola and Antigua, i also visited the UWI campus in Jamaica.
I have never been to any of the other islands due to the fact that I HATE to fly but maybe one day I will visit other islands.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You are welcome anytime. Caribbean people are very hospitiable(???) and one of the best assests they have.


well I plan on visiting when I can, maybe a spring break trip (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


sadly I never have, and I know that when I do, I will not want to leave. The Caribbean is a wonderful place, and I definitely want to visit
You are welcome anytime. Caribbean people are very hospitiable(???) and one of the best assests they have.
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Quoting StormW:


Aye, gorgeous. Been to Jamiaca, PR, Grand Cayman, St. Thomas. Even the water around Bermuda is crystal clear.
I was telling my grandson the other day that when you are flying into Cayman you can see right to the bottom of the ocean. The Caribbean waters are very clear. Did you get up to see the blowholes ?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Something odd at the end of Melor MIMIC

eyewall replacement?
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Quoting Weather456:
A few obs

Convection has increase over the past few hours.

Such a large system will take some time to consolidate, organize and tighten up.

There is a band of upper winds north of the disturbance that is aiding an expansive outflow jet.

Thanks. I have great confidence in you and StormW. Several more on here but you both are highly rated in my book. Keep up the good work.
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Have you ever been to any of the islands in the Caribbean ? The water is breathtaking. Every one has it's own distinctive thing about it. Cayman has no mountains but we have a bluff, caves blow holes and lots of other things.

I would like to experience those cave blow holes. I've been to Barbados, Saint Maarten, the BVI - Tortola and Antigua, i also visited the UWI campus in Jamaica.
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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.A MAJOR FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT WILL MOVE FROM NEVADA TODAY...TO
WYOMING MONDAY...AND MINNESOTA TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT TEMPERATURES AND THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE STORM ARE UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE LOCATION
OF POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW.

SDZ001-002-012-024-025-028-WYZ054-056-057-071-050015-
/O.CON.KUNR.WS.A.0009.091005T0900Z-091006T1200Z/
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-
WYOMING BLACK HILLS-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...LEMMON...BISON...
BELLE FOURCHE...LEAD...DEADWOOD...SPEARFISH...HILL CITY...
MT RUSHMORE...GILLETTE...MOORCROFT...HULETT...SUNDANCE...
FOUR CORNERS...COLONY
1006 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE
TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK HILLS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
TIMING OR TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION...OR THE INTERNET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE TIME TO PREPARE
FOR SEVERE WINTER CONDITIONS BEFORE THE STORM DEVELOPS.

$$






Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
260. Skyepony (Mod)
Something odd at the end of Melor MIMIC
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Have you ever been to any of the islands in the Caribbean ? The water is breathtaking. Every one has it's own distinctive thing about it. Cayman has no mountains but we have a bluff, caves blow holes and lots of other things.


sadly I never have, and I know that when I do, I will not want to leave. The Caribbean is a wonderful place, and I definitely want to visit
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting StormW:
456, and anyone interested, go to the bottom of the page in the link to Expert Discussions, click on the Power Point Presentation. Great explanation on the MJO cahrts.

MJO


thanks, I did get what the scales meant.
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255. Skyepony (Mod)
Melor
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2009 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 18:02:59 N Lon : 137:11:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 888.5mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.9 6.8 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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A few obs

Convection has increase over the past few hours.

Such a large system will take some time to consolidate, organize and tighten up.

There is a band of upper winds north of the disturbance that is aiding an expansive outflow jet.

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Quoting tornadodude:


well I'm glad you enjoy it
Have you ever been to any of the islands in the Caribbean ? The water is breathtaking. Every one has it's own distinctive thing about it. Cayman has no mountains but we have a bluff, caves blow holes and lots of other things.
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Quoting IKE:


6-10 day temp outlook....




8-14 day temp outlook....



looks like quite the cool down
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
annoyance.. someone is intentionally going through and forcing all of tornadodude's posts to be minimized .. well you're wasting your time because my boredom allows for such sillyness and I'm "+"ing all those things you "-"ed so hah =P
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249. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


oh ok, thanks


6-10 day temp outlook....




8-14 day temp outlook....

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes. Been living here since 1973 and even though it is very hot and we do tend to get our share of tropical systems I wouldn't live anywhere else.


well I'm glad you enjoy it
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

just dark clouds and a very light shower in the morn and hot and dry for the rest of the day we need rain bad like the rain we has couple of days ago
Must be in WB cause EE had 1.11 inches of rain this morning and lots of lightning and thunder. You were probably still asleep at that time.
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Quoting IKE:


Mid to late next week.


oh ok, thanks
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, well we get plenty of cold and snow here in Indiana in the winters, you're in the Cayman Islands, right?
Yes. Been living here since 1973 and even though it is very hot and we do tend to get our share of tropical systems I wouldn't live anywhere else.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Fantastic rain earlier this morning with lots of thunder and lightning. Sun is out now and kinda windy but it's nice. We need the rain.

just dark clouds and a very light shower in the morn and hot and dry for the rest of the day we need rain bad like the rain we has couple of days ago
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243. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah, glad you dont let it get to you, not that there is much to worry about, so that trough, when is it supposed to move through?


Mid to late next week.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sometimes in Dec/Jan we have a few nights and early mornings where it might get anywhere from maybe 64-68 degrees but they are few and far between. It's nice when it goes down to mid 70's during the day in the "winter".


yeah, well we get plenty of cold and snow here in Indiana in the winters, you're in the Cayman Islands, right?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting IKE:


LOL.....he loves me doesn't he? There's a reason I have him on ignore.

"Favors them"...LMAO.


haha yeah, glad you dont let it get to you, not that there is much to worry about, so that trough, when is it supposed to move through?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


and then there are trolls......


i remember a troll in the story about the three billy goats. he was mean.
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Quoting tornadodude:


oh wow, that has to be annoying. the forecast here calls for low 60's throughout this week with chances of rain
Sometimes in Dec/Jan we have a few nights and early mornings where it might get anywhere from maybe 64-68 degrees but they are few and far between. It's nice when it goes down to mid 70's during the day in the "winter".
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.