An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Cazatormentas:
Evening all from Spain :)

Does anyone know what area consider cyclone phase diagrams? I'm sure the extratropical low of Azores has developed a well separated tropical engine perturbation... Despite its origin and despite of those cyclone phase diagrams.

Thanks! :D


Hola,

you might want to read this;

Also someone else from Spain sent me this image and was wondering why the NHC failed to mentioned it

This 90L Today, Sunday 4 October


""[The National Hurricane center] seems to be naming a lot more than they used to. This year, I would put four storms in the very questionable category, and maybe even six. In the past, we would have waited to see if another observation supported naming the system. We would have been a little more conservative."

Neil Frank, National Hurricane Center Director, 1974-1987.

1. Aren't occluded lows a characteristic of mid-latitude cyclones and don't subtropical cyclones have characteristics of both tropical and mid-latitude systems, which has fronts.

2. Aren't occluded lows the sign of a decaying mid-latitude system.

3. Does the satellite presentation support this feature being tied to a front.

4. Is there a temperature contrast along 90L, the last time I check occluded lows have uniformed temperatures.

4. Subtropical cyclones have some sort of frontal feature to their NW.

5. QS showed the strongest winds near a very well define LLCC.


Systems near Greenland as I said before have warm-cores but they are not subtropical or tropical becuz they have more non-tropical features than tropical. For one, they are baroclinic.

You cannot use 23C to define a line, there is no line when it comes to classifying systems because not all systems are perfect. For instant, a tropical depression does not have specific winds of 30, 33, 36 mph, its either 25, 30 or 35 mph. And to say SSTs were too cold when it was 22C is an exaggeration, what is the biggest difference between 22 and 23C when the system is producing convection as if it was over 24C?

So how come Vince was classified over 23C, isn't the threshold for tropical systems 26C?

I am seeing comments about water is too cold and such and that really the only argument against 90L-ex. Now tell me, if the waters are too cold why is the system produce convection? You know what those cirrus clouds indicate? Those cirrus clouds indicate air is hitting the tropopause and has no where to go but outward (outflow). Mid-latitude systems don't have convective clouds that extend that far up that's why thunderstorm frequency drops dramatically in the high lats.

Another thing, the lapse rate, if the SSTs are that cool then the air directly above the sea surface should be cooler than the air aloft (temperating rising with height is a stable situation). The only way this system could produce such organize convection on each frame for 6 hrs, is if the lapse rate was decreasing with height (unstable situation), and in order for that to happen SSTs have to be warmer than the air aloft.

Some of my co-workers who have much more experienced than I am are dumb-founded as to why the NHC has not mentioned this system today. Something is not adding up and the last time I check I haven't had any mental problems, lol. This is utterly whack!

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
338. flsky
Quoting presslord:


It's beyond sad...it's obscene...

fyi...both FEMA and the Red Cross declined to help the Baxters in any way...it seems they do not qualify because they both have jobs...

I swear to God...

FEMA doesn't disqualify people b/c they have jobs.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is sad.


It's beyond sad...it's obscene...

fyi...both FEMA and the Red Cross declined to help the Baxters in any way...it seems they do not qualify because they both have jobs...

I swear to God...
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One think to look for is the development of a circulation. If one develops then the models did not verified since they are not forecasting closed isobars. So no model support, no verification, then we are at a situation where model did not show development of a feature that is.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting TexNowNM:


Thanks,

I was afraid to do that because I didn't want to put anyone on ignore.
You have to click on ignore user for that.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I would gladly give up my viewing of the game to him to watch the NO/NYJ game (not a fan of either but should be a much better game with two elite teams).


Get Satellite TV and enjoy... I dunno, two elite temas playing can sometimes be boring since they both can get completely shut down... But to each their own.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Point the cursor at it and they will tell you what each one stands for.


Thanks,

I was afraid to do that because I didn't want to put anyone on ignore.
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Thanks for the update, Tornado.

Is the reason Melor is expected to lose intensity as it parallels Japan because the water is cooler? Are the models pretty accurate about the Pacific so that confidence is high it will not hit Japan as a strong typhoon?
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Evening all from Spain :)

Does anyone know what area consider cyclone phase diagrams? I'm sure the extratropical low of Azores has developed a well separated tropical engine perturbation... Despite its origin and despite of those cyclone phase diagrams.

Thanks! :D
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Quoting Dakster:


Yes, I am watching and I see it... Maybe it was a sellout because a radio/tv station bought the rest of the tickets? In any event, it is a good game and I fell bad ElConando can't watch it.
I would gladly give up my viewing of the game to him to watch the NO/NYJ game (not a fan of either but should be a much better game with two elite teams).
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Quoting TexNowNM:
Is that image Tornadodude posted in entry 286 Melor? Is the eye really that large? I am in and out so I may have missed something.

I think a lot of us would appreciate a good update on what is going on there.


Yes it is. Me too.

Does anyone here know how well Tokyo handles a typhoon hit? Do they get flooding? Flying glass and building debris?
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Quoting TexNowNM:
On the side of every blog entry there is a little row of symbols: + - ! What do these mean? I know that is probably and dumb question.

Thanks,
Point the cursor at it and they will tell you what each one stands for.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
these are not blocks, these are spread throughout the entire stadium. the blaring orange color cannot be missed. if you are watching the game it is more than obvious.


Yes, I am watching and I see it... Maybe it was a sellout because a radio/tv station bought the rest of the tickets? In any event, it is a good game and I fell bad ElConando can't watch it.
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On the side of every blog entry there is a little row of symbols: + - ! What do these mean? I know that is probably and dumb question.

Thanks,
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Quoting TexNowNM:


Good luck to him! Actually, luck had nothing to do with it - it comes from a combination of ability and hard work.
Thanks. This kid lives to play soccer. He would rather give up food than to give up soccer. His goal is to become a major soccer player some day. I don't mind as long as he keeps his grades up in school. He doesn't do bad so he's okay with that for now.
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Quoting TexNowNM:
Is that image Tornadodude posted in entry 286 Melor? Is the eye really that large? I am in and out so I may have missed something.

I think a lot of us would appreciate a good update on what is going on there.


yes that is Melor, as is this-



TY 0918 (Melor)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 4 October 2009

Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N1755'(17.9)
E13740'(137.7)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW390km(210NM)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting caneswatch:


He will LOVE it. Good thing you watched it at least. It was loud when the U was on D. But after the game it was even louder.


Yep... I loved it when I was his age. I got several chances to be on the sidelines of the games when I was in junior high. Had season tickets up until the 1990's.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Age 8 is usually about the age boys start to get interested in sports and then around 14 it changes to girls. My grandson is 11 and has been playing soccer for about 5 years now. Just made it to the under17 National team.


Good luck to him! Actually, luck had nothing to do with it - it comes from a combination of ability and hard work.
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Quoting Dakster:


Congrats on the National Team... I hear that 13 is about when kids change from wanting to be with their parents to wanting to NOT be around their parents...

Anyways, back to the weather...

I think the "blob" will stay yellow for the moment. Not enough consolidation/rotation/organization to change it at the moment. Of course, I could be completely wrong as this is in my humble opinion.
I was thinking the same about the organization. It's good when kids get into sports. I find in the Caribbean boys play a lot of soccer and basketball but a lot of kids in the US spend too much time in front of the TV or game system. I have a nephew who is 12(Tampa) and still can't even ride a bicycle. Kids are very active outside in the Caribbean.
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Quoting Dakster:


True.... However, most of the time sections of seats are blocked off and weren't for sale anyways. I wonder what number of tickets have to be sold to determine a "sell out" is???

I like watching the Dolphins, as painful as it can be at times. I'm still hopefull that in my remaining lifetime they will make it into the playoffs again.

It'll happen sooner than you think... well hopefully.
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Quoting Dakster:


True.... However, most of the time sections of seats are blocked off and weren't for sale anyways. I wonder what number of tickets have to be sold to determine a "sell out" is???

I like watching the Dolphins, as painful as it can be at times. I'm still hopefull that in my remaining lifetime they will make it into the playoffs again.
these are not blocks, these are spread throughout the entire stadium. the blaring orange color cannot be missed. if you are watching the game it is more than obvious.
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Is that image Tornadodude posted in entry 286 Melor? Is the eye really that large? I am in and out so I may have missed something.

I think a lot of us would appreciate a good update on what is going on there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Age 8 is usually about the age boys start to get interested in sports and then around 14 it changes to girls. My grandson is 11 and has been playing soccer for about 5 years now. Just made it to the under17 National team.


Congrats on the National Team... I hear that 13 is about when kids change from wanting to be with their parents to wanting to NOT be around their parents...

Anyways, back to the weather...

I think the "blob" will stay yellow for the moment. Not enough consolidation/rotation/organization to change it at the moment. Of course, I could be completely wrong as this is in my humble opinion.
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Quoting Weather456:


Most likely, what I'm seeing is showers increasing along this wave but I cannot find any organize patterns. There is cyclonic turning clearly evident. As the showers continue to increase, a pattern may become evident. Awaiting QS.
Ok thanks. It still looks pretty spread out to me so wanted to know what you thought.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Still yellow at 8 ?


Most likely, what I'm seeing is showers increasing along this wave but I cannot find any organize patterns. There is cyclonic turning clearly evident below expansive upper anticyclonic flow. As the showers continue to increase, a pattern may become evident. Awaiting QS.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Dakster:


Nope. There are some personal family reasons that don't allow me to spend too much time away from home at the moment.

Although I am trying to work something out so I can take my 8 year old to a game. All of a sudden he wants to go to one, which figures, since last year I gave up going to a bunch of games FOR FREE because he wouldn't go.


He will LOVE it. Good thing you watched it at least. It was loud when the U was on D. But after the game it was even louder.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
yeah, just look at all those people disguised as emtpy seats. they game MAY be sold out but there are MANY people who did not attend...I would truly question the "sell out" as fans of South Florida professional teams are sell outs.


True.... However, most of the time sections of seats are blocked off and weren't for sale anyways. I wonder what number of tickets have to be sold to determine a "sell out" is???

I like watching the Dolphins, as painful as it can be at times. I'm still hopefull that in my remaining lifetime they will make it into the playoffs again.
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Quoting Weather456:
Still yellow at 8 ?
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Dakster:


Nope. There are some personal family reasons that don't allow me to spend too much time away from home at the moment.

Although I am trying to work something out so I can take my 8 year old to a game. All of a sudden he wants to go to one, which figures, since last year I gave up going to a bunch of games FOR FREE because he wouldn't go.
Age 8 is usually about the age boys start to get interested in sports and then around 14 it changes to girls. My grandson is 11 and has been playing soccer for about 5 years now. Just made it to the under17 National team.
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309. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
yeah, just look at all those people disguised as emtpy seats. they game MAY be sold out but there are MANY people who did not attend...I would truly question the "sell out" as fans of South Florida professional teams are sell outs.



I watched JAX dismantle Tennessee. Half of the stadium in Jacksonville was empty.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Did you go to the game last night?


Nope. There are some personal family reasons that don't allow me to spend too much time away from home at the moment.

Although I am trying to work something out so I can take my 8 year old to a game. All of a sudden he wants to go to one, which figures, since last year I gave up going to a bunch of games FOR FREE because he wouldn't go.
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Quoting Dakster:


Wow. I thought the TV Networks only dissapointed us in Miami with the Dolphins. Missing a GREAT game. TD MIAMI, 16 to 3 so far...

On edit: 17 to 3 now. (Sell out crowd)

Good thing the weather cleard up after the Hurricane blew through last night.
Quoting Dakster:


Wow. I thought the TV Networks only dissapointed us in Miami with the Dolphins. Missing a GREAT game. TD MIAMI, 16 to 3 so far...

On edit: 17 to 3 now. (Sell out crowd)

Good thing the weather cleard up after the Hurricane blew through last night.
yeah, just look at all those people disguised as emtpy seats. they game MAY be sold out but there are MANY people who did not attend...I would truly question the "sell out" as fans of South Florida professional teams are sell outs.
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Quoting Dakster:


I need the Dramamine too. The patch seems work good without making your drowsey - unless the seas are really rough, in which case nothing for me seems to work.
I know what you mean. I take the Dramamine, catch two fish, feel like s*#! and then go to sleep. I think maybe flying is the lesser of two evils since it is usually shorter than a boat.
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Looks like some weather is finally approaching from the east!
It has been a very dry September, and rain would be good at 11n 61w.
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Quoting jurakantaino:
Come to Puerto Rico we have the largest rain forest in the Caribean ,we also have a dry forest, systems of breathtaking caves for the tourist, that extent for miles with an underground 30 miles , 5 river, 5 fluorencents bays,tall mountans to hike ,etc. Just some tourist propaganda ,hope you don't mind.
That is one I have always wanted to see.
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Quoting IKE:
Houston afternoon discussion...

"AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A 1039 MB HIGH
CENTER PUSHING THIS FRONT WHILE GFS INDICATE A 1040 MB CENTER. WE
MAY GET A SQUALL LINE SCENARIO WITH THIS FRONT CONSIDERING
STRENGTH OF FRONT AND AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT."
near record highs forecast for South Fla through the week...
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Quoting ElConando:


bad severe storm?


Yep. There are still pieces of the Oklahoma team strung out all over Miami... Quite sad really.
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Quoting Dakster:


Wow. I thought the TV Networks only dissapointed us in Miami with the Dolphins. Missing a GREAT game. TD MIAMI, 16 to 3 so far...

On edit: 17 to 3 now. (Sell out crowd)

Good thing the weather cleard up after the Hurricane blew through last night.


Did you go to the game last night?
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Quoting jurakantaino:
Come to Puerto Rico we have the largest rain forest in the Caribean ,we also have a dry forest, systems of breathtaking caves for the tourist, that extent for miles with an underground 30 miles , 5 river, 5 fluorencents bays,tall mountans to hike ,etc. Just some tourist propaganda ,hope you don't mind.


I'll pull a MacArthur and go island hopping
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Have you ever been to any of the islands in the Caribbean ? The water is breathtaking. Every one has it's own distinctive thing about it. Cayman has no mountains but we have a bluff, caves blow holes and lots of other things.
Come to Puerto Rico we have the largest rain forest in the Caribean ,we also have a dry forest, systems of breathtaking caves for the tourist, that extent for miles with an underground 30 miles , 5 river, 5 fluorencents bays,tall mountans to hike ,etc. Just some tourist propaganda ,hope you don't mind.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just might do that with a good supply of Dramamine. LOL


I need the Dramamine too. The patch seems work good without making your drowsey - unless the seas are really rough, in which case nothing for me seems to work.
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Quoting Dakster:


Wow. I thought the TV Networks only dissapointed us in Miami with the Dolphins. Missing a GREAT game. TD MIAMI, 16 to 3 so far...

On edit: 17 to 3 now. (Sell out crowd)

Good thing the weather cleard up after the Hurricane blew through last night.


bad severe storm?
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Quoting Dakster:


Take a cruise/boat then. NO flying involved. I hate flying too.
Just might do that with a good supply of Dramamine. LOL
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294. IKE
18Z NAM.....has the CATL wave going NE of the islands.

Memphis,TN. extended....

"ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THE
NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY
THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG STORMS.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES."
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Quoting ElConando:
afternoon all checking up on the wave as the Dolphins game not covered here this week. Maybe I was spoiled the first 3 weeks here in Tallahassee :P.


Wow. I thought the TV Networks only dissapointed us in Miami with the Dolphins. Missing a GREAT game. TD MIAMI, 16 to 3 so far...

On edit: 17 to 3 now. (Sell out crowd)

Good thing the weather cleard up after the Hurricane blew through last night.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have never been to any of the other islands due to the fact that I HATE to fly but maybe one day I will visit other islands.


Take a cruise/boat then. NO flying involved. I hate flying too.
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Quoting ElConando:
afternoon all checking up on the wave as the Dolphins game not covered here this week. Maybe I was spoiled the first 3 weeks here in Tallahassee :P.


hey there, how you doing?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
afternoon all checking up on the wave as the Dolphins game not covered here this week. Maybe I was spoiled the first 3 weeks here in Tallahassee :P.
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289. IKE
HPC 6 day forecast...



and 7 day forecast...shows a 1036mb high heading SE over the northern plains...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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