An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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there are, btw, some outstandin big international NGO's who do a very effective job...the one Orca was flogging for Samoa...Caritas...is a good example...
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388. Skyepony (Mod)
The COC of ex-90L went just north of this station today.

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Tex makes another great point...there is often a wide disconnect between the disenfranchised and the institutional mindset...many times poor equates with uneducated...and the process gets pretty snarled...
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hydrus...good question...

the Red Cross didn't so much deny help as just not offer anything...they seem to have not been in the game...

as for FEMA, it is more complex...issues of means testing, home ownership, insurance, etc, all come into play...
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90 L now Link
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I was assigned to work with the Red Cross after Wilma. The people do care and want to help out as much as they can - but they are limited by their "orders" and finances too. Some people get left out and it is organizations like Portlight that are stepping up to the plate.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


that's right...the individuals are, almost without expection, GREAT folks...it's the institutional inertia that hampers them...not their intentions...
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Quoting Weather456:


HERE

and HERE


They had one yesterday

HERE

Go through the pages but the discussions are in Spanish
One thing is for sure i love their dicussions been a more open society they use slang language, and bad words to make their points, interesting, Spanish is my first language going to hook to them sometimes is nice to hear and learn from their perspectives.
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Quoting hydrus:
I thought the Baxters lost their vehicle, how are they supposed to get to work?


The working poor and the regular middle class are often penalized in this whole disaster thing. No one can be fully prepared to be wiped out; it is not possible.

Another problem is that people who work for a living often are not conversant with how to navigate that whole network required to get help from the two mentioned organizations that turned down the Baxters. The working poor often lack the education skills needed to read and complete applications. Many have been so decimated they lack transportation to go apply. Heck, I have a very good Liberal Arts education and I have had to stop and think when helping others complete them.

From my own wide experience with disaster relief, it is faith based charities and community charities like PortLight that help those who don't receive help elsewhere.

I have never personally asked for a cent from either organization, but as a teacher at a very poor school, I was called on to help in disaster relief after a tornado, and my family was hit by multiple hurricanes. (Fortunately, we came out better than most.) I am also involved with disaster relief with a faith-based organization so I have "been around." Bad, bad experience with both organizations Presslord mentioned, with both the tornado and the hurricanes - more so with the non-government one. The stories I could tell......
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Quoting presslord:
they lost both vehicles...are sharing a borrowed car for now...
Why did fema and the Red Cross not give help to the Baxters?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21191
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Maybe FEMA or the Red Cross will give them a ride.
I need to find the exact reason why they denied the Baxters aid.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21191
As neighbors, at least where I currently live, we all pull together for the short term. After storms, power outages, etc.. we look out for each other and help each other out. We help remove debris, neighborhood cook-outs for each other, and when the power only came back to half the neighborhood ran extension cords to each other. I had a neighbor help me with my laundry as I had to go to work and had no power.

However, the long term solutions are harder to come by - replacement cars, housing, jobs, and being able to take care of yourself after the "disaster" has cleared. That is what FEMA and the Red Cross are supposed to do, help you back up on your feet.

I was assigned to work with the Red Cross after Wilma. The people do care and want to help out as much as they can - but they are limited by their "orders" and finances too. Some people get left out and it is organizations like Portlight that are stepping up to the plate.
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Quoting presslord:
CI...no people anywhere are most generous than us...but some of our institutions are so inept as to appear hard hearted...it's a frustrating dissonance...
Sometimes I think individuals help a lot more than big agencies. I mentioned to you I think the other night about a woman named Susan Olde who generously helped East End(where I live) and other parts of Grand Cayman after Ivan. A lot of people here have been back in their homes for a while now due to her help.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Link to the forum?

Sigh.. NHC dropped the ball on this one I'm sorry to say, usually they're pretty good about this kind of stuff.


http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/nueva-evo lucion-de-una-borrasca-extratropical-madura-a-posible-entidad-stropical/msg371657/?topicseen#msg3716 57

I'm from the Manager Team of this one.

Thanks again, guys ;)
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CI...no people anywhere are most generous than us...but some of our institutions are so inept as to appear hard hearted...it's a frustrating dissonance...
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Quoting presslord:
Hearts can be open wherever you live.

very very true...
I know this is true because Portlight got a lot of needed items to them but you would think that big agencies like FEMA and the Red Cross could have helped in some way too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION.




90L.



Vince


Not trying to bash the NHC or anything but this does seem like a pretty significant miss w/ 90L.
Is embarrassing to say the list, not to have it in their tropical weather out look for the NATL, GOM, and CS. Unless they are excluding the NE atlantic.
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Quoting flsky:

Please don't cast aspersions on things where your knowledge is limited. After a recent tornado strike in Port Orange (which wasn't declared a disaster BTW), there was an incredible outpouring of help from local agencies (including the Red Cross), churches, neighbors and complete strangers. Hearts can be open wherever you live.
All I meant is that a blind man could see that these people need help. I know there are a lot of good people in the US but sometimes those who need it this most don't seem like they get it.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Link to the forum?

Sigh.. NHC dropped the ball on this one I'm sorry to say, usually they're pretty good about this kind of stuff.


HERE

and HERE


They had one yesterday

HERE

Go through the pages but the discussions are in Spanish
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hearts can be open wherever you live.

very very true...
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION.




90L.



Vince


Not trying to bash the NHC or anything but this does seem like a pretty significant miss w/ 90L.
Well on the other hand Last year they named Marco even though He was no bigger than a midwest Tornado go figure IMO
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Wave 40W looks like it is starting to consolidate/organize some now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
368. flsky
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Whether they do or not I don't know but if anyone needed help these folks sure did. It's things like this that make me thankful I live somewhere like the Cayman Islands where people do tend to have open hearts. Yes, there are some who don't but more that do.

Please don't cast aspersions on things where your knowledge is limited. After a recent tornado strike in Port Orange (which wasn't declared a disaster BTW), there was an incredible outpouring of help from local agencies (including the Red Cross), churches, neighbors and complete strangers. Hearts can be open wherever you live.
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Quoting Weather456:
It has gotten to the point where persons in Spain and Portugal have had threads and forums dedicated to 90L. Well what can we do? Nothing. This was a subtropical storm, NHC or not.

90L today



Link to the forum?

Sigh.. NHC dropped the ball on this one I'm sorry to say, usually they're pretty good about this kind of stuff.
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they lost both vehicles...are sharing a borrowed car for now...
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Quoting hydrus:
I thought the Baxters lost their vehicle, how are they supposed to get to work?
Maybe FEMA or the Red Cross will give them a ride.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
It has gotten to the point where persons in Spain and Portugal have had threads and forums dedicated to 90L. Well what can we do? Nothing. This was a subtropical storm, NHC or not.

90L today

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sometimes you can have jobs and still not make enough for rent etc. I wonder if they don't realize how hard it is for a family with four kids to raise. Boy, I don't know what happened to some peoples hearts. Anyone can spare $5 to help another and that can add up. In Cayman they have a saying. God doesn't sleep nor slumber and I think a lot of people would do well to remember that.
I thought the Baxters lost their vehicle, how are they supposed to get to work?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21191
Quoting tornadodude:


Golf and alcohol dont mix, that's why I dont drink and drive

lmao .. good one
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my wife plays enough golf...and swigs enough scotch...for both of us...
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Quoting Dakster:


LOL... I can't drink or golf...

However, I see that Ricky Williams is earning his dope money today.


Golf and alcohol dont mix, that's why I dont drink and drive
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting presslord:
in my 20's I tried to cultivate a taste for both golf...and scotch...it seems, alas, that I'm a sailing, bourbon swiggin' kinda guy...


LOL... I can't drink or golf...

However, I see that Ricky Williams is earning his dope money today.
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Quoting Weather456:


Hola,

you might want to read this;

Also someone else from Spain sent me this image and was wondering why the NHC failed to mentioned it

This 90L Today, Sunday 4 October


""



ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION.




90L.



Vince


Not trying to bash the NHC or anything but this does seem like a pretty significant miss w/ 90L.
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in my 20's I tried to cultivate a taste for both golf...and scotch...it seems, alas, that I'm a sailing, bourbon swiggin' kinda guy...
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Quoting Weather456:


Hola,

you might want to read this;

Also someone else from Spain sent me this image and was wondering why the NHC failed to mentioned it

This 90L Today, Sunday 4 October


""[The National Hurricane center] seems to be naming a lot more than they used to. This year, I would put four storms in the very questionable category, and maybe even six. In the past, we would have waited to see if another observation supported naming the system. We would have been a little more conservative."

Neil Frank, National Hurricane Center Director, 1974-1987.

1. Aren't occluded lows a characteristic of mid-latitude cyclones and don't subtropical cyclones have characteristics of both tropical and mid-latitude systems, which has fronts.

2. Aren't occluded lows the sign of a decaying mid-latitude system.

3. Does the satellite presentation support this feature being tied to a front.

4. Is there a temperature contrast along 90L, the last time I check occluded lows have uniformed temperatures.

4. Subtropical cyclones have some sort of frontal feature to their NW.

5. QS showed the strongest winds near a very well define LLCC.


Systems near Greenland as I said before have warm-cores but they are not subtropical or tropical becuz they have more non-tropical features than tropical. For one, they are baroclinic.

You cannot use 23C to define a line, there is no line when it comes to classifying systems because not all systems are perfect. For instant, a tropical depression does not have specific winds of 30, 33, 36 mph, its either 25, 30 or 35 mph. And to say SSTs were too cold when it was 22C is an exaggeration, what is the biggest difference between 22 and 23C when the system is producing convection as if it was over 24C?

So how come Vince was classified over 23C, isn't the threshold for tropical systems 26C?

I am seeing comments about water is too cold and such and that really the only argument against 90L-ex. Now tell me, if the waters are too cold why is the system produce convection? You know what those cirrus clouds indicate? Those cirrus clouds indicate air is hitting the tropopause and has no where to go but outward (outflow). Mid-latitude systems don't have convective clouds that extend that far up that's why thunderstorm frequency drops dramatically in the high lats.

Another thing, the lapse rate, if the SSTs are that cool then the air directly above the sea surface should be cooler than the air aloft (temperating rising with height is a stable situation). The only way this system could produce such organize convection on each frame for 6 hrs, is if the lapse rate was decreasing with height (unstable situation), and in order for that to happen SSTs have to be warmer than the air aloft.

Some of my co-workers who have much more experienced than I am are dumb-founded as to why the NHC has not mentioned this system today. Something is not adding up and the last time I check I haven't had any mental problems, lol. This is utterly whack!


The NHC really should have named 90L, STS Henri.
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Western Caribbean Conditions at 42057 as of
(4:50 pm EDT)
2050 GMT on 10/04/2009:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.6 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.9 °F
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
Quoting Weather456:


Hola,

you might want to read this;

Also someone else from Spain sent me this image and was wondering why the NHC failed to mentioned it

This 90L Today, Sunday 4 October


""[The National Hurricane center] seems to be naming a lot more than they used to. This year, I would put four storms in the very questionable category, and maybe even six. In the past, we would have waited to see if another observation supported naming the system. We would have been a little more conservative."

Neil Frank, National Hurricane Center Director, 1974-1987.

1. Aren't occluded lows a characteristic of mid-latitude cyclones and don't subtropical cyclones have characteristics of both tropical and mid-latitude systems, which has fronts.

2. Aren't occluded lows the sign of a decaying mid-latitude system.

3. Does the satellite presentation support this feature being tied to a front.

4. Is there a temperature contrast along 90L, the last time I check occluded lows have uniformed temperatures.

4. Subtropical cyclones have some sort of frontal feature to their NW.

5. QS showed the strongest winds near a very well define LLCC.


Systems near Greenland as I said before have warm-cores but they are not subtropical or tropical becuz they have more non-tropical features than tropical. For one, they are baroclinic.

You cannot use 23C to define a line, there is no line when it comes to classifying systems because not all systems are perfect. For instant, a tropical depression does not have specific winds of 30, 33, 36 mph, its either 25, 30 or 35 mph. And to say SSTs were too cold when it was 22C is an exaggeration, what is the biggest difference between 22 and 23C when the system is producing convection as if it was over 24C?

So how come Vince was classified over 23C, isn't the threshold for tropical systems 26C?

I am seeing comments about water is too cold and such and that really the only argument against 90L-ex. Now tell me, if the waters are too cold why is the system produce convection? You know what those cirrus clouds indicate? Those cirrus clouds indicate air is hitting the tropopause and has no where to go but outward (outflow). Mid-latitude systems don't have convective clouds that extend that far up that's why thunderstorm frequency drops dramatically in the high lats.

Another thing, the lapse rate, if the SSTs are that cool then the air directly above the sea surface should be cooler than the air aloft (temperating rising with height is a stable situation). The only way this system could produce such organize convection on each frame for 6 hrs, is if the lapse rate was decreasing with height (unstable situation), and in order for that to happen SSTs have to be warmer than the air aloft.

Some of my co-workers who have much more experienced than I am are dumb-founded as to why the NHC has not mentioned this system today. Something is not adding up and the last time I check I haven't had any mental problems, lol. This is utterly whack!



Thank you very much, Wx456. Great explanation!
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Afternoon All :) Back from getting my clock cleaned by SWMBO on the golf course :( While I wasn't watching.. she all of a sudden figured out putting :(


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Daily Chuckles in Comments section

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Could we see some development of that 1010MB surface low in the Eastern Pacific.

Summary of current conditions:
Wind Shear(18Z):20-30KTS
SST(18Z):28C
925MB Vorticity:120
Has little development from models

Conditions from PSU E-Wall
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90L also lost the occluded front from yesterday.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Dak...yup...that's a significant part of it...again, I may have put it a bit simplistically...but the the net is exactly as pottery said: people are penalized for trying to do the right thing...
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looking at WV imagery looks like shear is FINALLY starting to relax some? prevailing westerlies are starting to shift and slow some. less subsidence and dry air too.
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Quoting presslord:


It's beyond sad...it's obscene...

fyi...both FEMA and the Red Cross declined to help the Baxters in any way...it seems they do not qualify because they both have jobs...

I swear to God...


I guess they make too much $$$. And if you have home owners insurance they won't help either.
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Quoting pottery:
Strange. Having a job is a reason to refuse to help someone?
The message seems clear to me. Get unemployed! We will support you...
makes no sense to me somehow.
Amen.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
Strange. Having a job is a reason to refuse to help someone?
The message seems clear to me. Get unemployed! We will support you...
makes no sense to me somehow.
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it is a bit complex, in that there is means test matrix in which employment figures...but the bottom line remains what it is...
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Quoting flsky:

FEMA doesn't disqualify people b/c they have jobs.
Whether they do or not I don't know but if anyone needed help these folks sure did. It's things like this that make me thankful I live somewhere like the Cayman Islands where people do tend to have open hearts. Yes, there are some who don't but more that do.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
Quoting TexNowNM:
Thanks for the update, Tornado.

Is the reason Melor is expected to lose intensity as it parallels Japan because the water is cooler? Are the models pretty accurate about the Pacific so that confidence is high it will not hit Japan as a strong typhoon?


Youre welcome.

It does appear that the SST's do drop off.



Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting presslord:


It's beyond sad...it's obscene...

fyi...both FEMA and the Red Cross declined to help the Baxters in any way...it seems they do not qualify because they both have jobs...

I swear to God...
Sometimes you can have jobs and still not make enough for rent etc. I wonder if they don't realize how hard it is for a family with four kids to raise. Boy, I don't know what happened to some peoples hearts. Anyone can spare $5 to help another and that can add up. In Cayman they have a saying. God doesn't sleep nor slumber and I think a lot of people would do well to remember that.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
wanna bet?
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Quoting Cazatormentas:
Evening all from Spain :)

Does anyone know what area consider cyclone phase diagrams? I'm sure the extratropical low of Azores has developed a well separated tropical engine perturbation... Despite its origin and despite of those cyclone phase diagrams.

Thanks! :D


Hola,

you might want to read this;

Also someone else from Spain sent me this image and was wondering why the NHC failed to mentioned it

This 90L Today, Sunday 4 October


""[The National Hurricane center] seems to be naming a lot more than they used to. This year, I would put four storms in the very questionable category, and maybe even six. In the past, we would have waited to see if another observation supported naming the system. We would have been a little more conservative."

Neil Frank, National Hurricane Center Director, 1974-1987.

1. Aren't occluded lows a characteristic of mid-latitude cyclones and don't subtropical cyclones have characteristics of both tropical and mid-latitude systems, which has fronts.

2. Aren't occluded lows the sign of a decaying mid-latitude system.

3. Does the satellite presentation support this feature being tied to a front.

4. Is there a temperature contrast along 90L, the last time I check occluded lows have uniformed temperatures.

4. Subtropical cyclones have some sort of frontal feature to their NW.

5. QS showed the strongest winds near a very well define LLCC.


Systems near Greenland as I said before have warm-cores but they are not subtropical or tropical becuz they have more non-tropical features than tropical. For one, they are baroclinic.

You cannot use 23C to define a line, there is no line when it comes to classifying systems because not all systems are perfect. For instant, a tropical depression does not have specific winds of 30, 33, 36 mph, its either 25, 30 or 35 mph. And to say SSTs were too cold when it was 22C is an exaggeration, what is the biggest difference between 22 and 23C when the system is producing convection as if it was over 24C?

So how come Vince was classified over 23C, isn't the threshold for tropical systems 26C?

I am seeing comments about water is too cold and such and that really the only argument against 90L-ex. Now tell me, if the waters are too cold why is the system produce convection? You know what those cirrus clouds indicate? Those cirrus clouds indicate air is hitting the tropopause and has no where to go but outward (outflow). Mid-latitude systems don't have convective clouds that extend that far up that's why thunderstorm frequency drops dramatically in the high lats.

Another thing, the lapse rate, if the SSTs are that cool then the air directly above the sea surface should be cooler than the air aloft (temperating rising with height is a stable situation). The only way this system could produce such organize convection on each frame for 6 hrs, is if the lapse rate was decreasing with height (unstable situation), and in order for that to happen SSTs have to be warmer than the air aloft.

Some of my co-workers who have much more experienced than I am are dumb-founded as to why the NHC has not mentioned this system today. Something is not adding up and the last time I check I haven't had any mental problems, lol. This is utterly whack!

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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