An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Ameister12:
91L is born.

WOW LET THROW A PARTY :)
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438. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
yup it's the forecasted surface map
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Presslord: Here is an article and contact info. Hope this helps.
Mrs Susan Olde, and Reverend Graeme Thomson, representatives of the charity I AM CO recently presented H.E. the Governor, Bruce Dinwiddy with a cheque for US$750,000 in support of the Cayman Islands National Recovery Fund (NRF).

The Governor, who is also Chairman of the NRF’s Board of Trustees, thanked I AM CO on behalf of the Government and people of Cayman for such a generous donation, saying: "This substantial cash donation to the National Recovery Fund comes as we prepare to launch an international publicity drive for the fund.

I AM CO’s donation will give a great boost to our campaign. I hope that many other individuals, foundations and corporations will follow Mrs Olde’s example, and show how much they care about Cayman, especially at a time when our community is in need of so much more help to assist in the recovery process."P.O. Box 10256
Grand Cayman
KY1-1003

e: wendy@iamco.org.ky
e: donovan@iamco.org.ky

Ph: 345.947.4010
F: 345.947.4012
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

are those T should it be L
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91L is born.
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434. N3EG
Quoting Weather456:
lol

The MET on TWC said the remnants of Parma is now moving into Texas. The Hurricane Authority.


Silly MET. Parma is in Ohio.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Thats the forecast right, not what is analyzed now?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
413, etc.
Absolutely, "Question Authority"; it's your job, and keeps us from another generation on our toes.
Just don't forget that most people really are doing the best that they can and have good hearts -- Even those of us who work for bureaucratic institutions, sigh. We go into public service with the best of intentions; to make our country and the world a better place. At least we try...


Exactly, I know what you mean. This applies to media also. If we took everything that we heard on the news as fact, then we live in an even more depressed world.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Well, i don't know about her helping any wealthy person but I do know she helped many poorer folks in East End. I did not receive nor need help but many of my friends and neighbors did. She also set up an account with Progressive Distributors and a 40 FT container was delivered to East End every few days loaded with necessities.


You're right, but I know of one particular individual that was very wealthy that profitted by her help when they could have helped themselve, this in my opinion is a shame, but overall the many she helped really needed it from understanding, but I was just pointing out that one or a few individuals can create a negative outlook on most the mean well in times of need.
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430. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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so guys do we have invest 91L or not talk to me guys
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Quoting beell:
Re Post 364
W456,
What would be your estimate of the diameter of ex90L in the image you posted?


120 miles

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting presslord:
CI...I'm not familiar with her...but would like to connect...if you have any info which would help me track her down please send it to me...
Give me a few minutes.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
413, etc.
Absolutely, "Question Authority"; it's your job, and keeps us from another generation on our toes.
Just don't forget that most people really are doing the best that they can and have good hearts -- Even those of us who work for bureaucratic institutions, sigh. We go into public service with the best of intentions; to make our country and the world a better place. At least we try...
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CI...I'm not familiar with her...but would like to connect...if you have any info which would help me track her down please send it to me...
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Quoting stormpetrol:

So True, but I know of one particular person that she helped that had over a million dollars in the bank, also quite a few wealthy persons got help because of "connections" while those that really needed it just were ignored and help refused! This happens all over the world, while most have good intentions , the road to hell was paved with good intentions, where you will capitalizing on this misfortunes of others, unfortunately there is sames to be no way of stopping this. SAD! SAD!
Well, i don't know about her helping any wealthy person but I do know she helped many poorer folks in East End. I did not receive nor need help but many of my friends and neighbors did. She also set up an account with Progressive Distributors and a 40 FT container was delivered to East End every few days loaded with necessities.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266


AOI/91/XL
MARK
13N/39W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
419. Weather456 11:07 PM GMT on October 04, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


If everyone always accepted the professional opinions of organizations as fact, and never doubted them, then why even bother blogging on here? why bother debating political policies? (theyre professionals, they must be right) might as well take everything that my professors teach me and assume it is true and not ever bother doing any research to verify it. this is what drives America. When we founded this country, it was because we questioned the rule of our mother country and her policies. We did not accept it as "right," but instead we used our God-given intuition to determine what was the better way to govern. It is so important to keep an open mind and use the tools we have to research anything that we want. I do trust the NHC for the most part, but they make mistakes, as do I. Just because someone is in an authoritative position, we shouldnt automatically assume that they always make the right calls. Think about our elected officials- they are in a position of respect and authority, but we should not just take everything they do or say as fact. Read up on them, filter through various sources, research, etc.
Never assume.... we all know what that does.

hope I made sense :P


Amen!

What makes a good forecaster is the ability to reason and take information and interpret it, in the best way possible.
Action: Quote | Ignore User

Absolutely perfect!!
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Quoting Weather456:


That's Invest 90L, it was designated back on 1 October. Read post 339


Thanks 456, I did read that but I didn't get the whole picture. ˆI do understand that some think it should be a named storm but others do not. Since it isn't, I wondered what it is called but I suppose it is just called Invest90L even though it looks like more. I thought it might have some kind of special name. I was wondering what the wind speeds were in it. It is really impressive.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Whoa, yikes, glad I just got on. I can't help with weather, but there's a few things I might be able to help with -- if someone else hasn't already. I'm a disaster reservist, and although the Baxters' area isn't my region -- a "denial" letter isn't often what it seems! FEMA and/or the VOADs, or VOLAGs (Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster and similar), often just need a copy of the Insurance companies Denial letter in order to proceed.
In other words, DENIAL from insurance company is actually GOOD. That can be submitted to FEMA and/or the charities so assistance can be given. This is just to avoid double compensation for the same thing.
One car is covered under personal property.
Perhaps "Floodman" is on...he probably can confirm, believe he's with insurance company.
Anyone who'd like to e-mail me, feel free. I'll try to help.



yup...but the needless complexity of it all is scandalous
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Quoting tornadodude:


If everyone always accepted the professional opinions of organizations as fact, and never doubted them, then why even bother blogging on here? why bother debating political policies? (theyre professionals, they must be right) might as well take everything that my professors teach me and assume it is true and not ever bother doing any research to verify it. this is what drives America. When we founded this country, it was because we questioned the rule of our mother country and her policies. We did not accept it as "right," but instead we used our God-given intuition to determine what was the better way to govern. It is so important to keep an open mind and use the tools we have to research anything that we want. I do trust the NHC for the most part, but they make mistakes, as do I. Just because someone is in an authoritative position, we shouldnt automatically assume that they always make the right calls. Think about our elected officials- they are in a position of respect and authority, but we should not just take everything they do or say as fact. Read up on them, filter through various sources, research, etc.
Never assume.... we all know what that does.

hope I made sense :P


Amen!

What makes a good forecaster is the ability to reason and take information and interpret it, in the best way possible.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
418. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3 min sustained winds average
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417. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Thundery Low 997 39N27W, moving northeast, expected 993 44N21W by
05/12UTC, expected 993 45N19W by 6/00UTC.

--
so this is 90L
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416. amd
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
** WTPQ20 BABJ 041800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY MELOR 0918 (0918) INITIAL TIME 041800 UTC
00HR 17.9N 137.6E 905HPA 65M/S (130 kts)
30KTS 360KM
50KTS 160KM
P12HR WNW 30KM/H
P+24HR 20.8N 131.3E 905HPA 65M/S (130 kts)
P+48HR 25.8N 129.5E 925HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+72HR 31.1N 133.5E 940HPA 50M/S (100 kts)
P+96HR 38.9N 140.2E 955HPA 40M/S= (80 kts)

--
That is a deep central pressure (905 hPa)


are the winds being analyzed as 1 min sustained winds, 2 min sustained winds, 3 min sustained winds, or 10 min sustained winds?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sometimes I think individuals help a lot more than big agencies. I mentioned to you I think the other night about a woman named Susan Olde who generously helped East End(where I live) and other parts of Grand Cayman after Ivan. A lot of people here have been back in their homes for a while now due to her help.

So True, but I know of one particular person that she helped that had over a million dollars in the bank, also quite a few wealthy persons got help because of "connections" while those that really needed it just were ignored and help refused! This happens all over the world, while most have good intentions , the road to hell was paved with good intentions, where you will find those creeps capitalizing on the misfortunes of others, unfortunately there is sames to be no way of stopping this. SAD! SAD!
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414. beell
Re Post 364
W456,
What would be your estimate of the diameter of ex90L in the image you posted?
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Quoting tropics21:
Gettin kinda tired of the NHC bashing If all of you are so Good go take over and work there


If everyone always accepted the professional opinions of organizations as fact, and never doubted them, then why even bother blogging on here? why bother debating political policies? (theyre professionals, they must be right) might as well take everything that my professors teach me and assume it is true and not ever bother doing any research to verify it. this is what drives America. When we founded this country, it was because we questioned the rule of our mother country and her policies. We did not accept it as "right," but instead we used our God-given intuition to determine what was the better way to govern. It is so important to keep an open mind and use the tools we have to research anything that we want. I do trust the NHC for the most part, but they make mistakes, as do I. Just because someone is in an authoritative position, we shouldnt automatically assume that they always make the right calls. Think about our elected officials- they are in a position of respect and authority, but we should not just take everything they do or say as fact. Read up on them, filter through various sources, research, etc.
Never assume.... we all know what that does.

hope I made sense :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting presslord:
hydrus...good question...

the Red Cross didn't so much deny help as just not offer anything...they seem to have not been in the game...

as for FEMA, it is more complex...issues of means testing, home ownership, insurance, etc, all come into play...

Whoa, yikes, glad I just got on. I can't help with weather, but there's a few things I might be able to help with -- if someone else hasn't already. I'm a disaster reservist, and although the Baxters' area isn't my region -- a "denial" letter isn't often what it seems! FEMA and/or the VOADs, or VOLAGs (Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster and similar), often just need a copy of the Insurance companies Denial letter in order to proceed.
In other words, DENIAL from insurance company is actually GOOD. That can be submitted to FEMA and/or the charities so assistance can be given. This is just to avoid double compensation for the same thing.
One car is covered under personal property.
Perhaps "Floodman" is on...he probably can confirm, believe he's with insurance company.
Anyone who'd like to e-mail me, feel free. I'll try to help.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
411. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hmm are you looking at Severe Cyclone Vince photo?
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Quoting TexNowNM:
I have a weather question.

What is that thing in the posts near Spain that looks like a hurricane. I know many have commented that the NHC has not said anything about it, but what is it? What is the wind speed? Why does it look like a hurricane? I know looks can be deceiving and I am no expert. Someone who knows stuff, tell the rest of us what is going on.


That's Invest 90L, it was designated back on 1 October. Read post 339
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting presslord:
the salvation Army is another top notch organization...


They feed a lot of hungry people.
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I have a weather question.

What is that thing in the posts near Spain that looks like a hurricane. I know many have commented that the NHC has not said anything about it, but what is it? What is the wind speed? Why does it look like a hurricane? I know looks can be deceiving and I am no expert. Someone who knows stuff, tell the rest of us what is going on.
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the salvation Army is another top notch organization...
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406. amd
Quoting tropics21:
Gettin kinda tired of the NHC bashing If all of you are so Good go take over and work there


to be fair, this blog is not meant just for those to blindly agree with the NHC. And, those who are arguing for the inclusion of 90L as a named subtropical storm have made some good points, especially w456 (who we all know is a good pro met).

However, just as I said yesterday, I have agreed wholeheartedly with the NHC this year in terms of naming, and not naming storms.

Also, 90L, is still clearly part of a frontal system that is now being pulled into western Europe, which itself automatically disqualifies it from being a named subtropical system. Why is this? Because the low associated with the front (or 90L) is moving in tandem with that front.

Furthermore, with Vince, there was no frontal boundary.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
I hope IKE didn't catch that newscast...
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404. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
did he say Parma.. oops he meant Ofal =P
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Parma isn't looking to good.
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402. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 041800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY MELOR 0918 (0918) INITIAL TIME 041800 UTC
00HR 17.9N 137.6E 905HPA 65M/S (130 kts)
30KTS 360KM
50KTS 160KM
P12HR WNW 30KM/H
P+24HR 20.8N 131.3E 905HPA 65M/S (130 kts)
P+48HR 25.8N 129.5E 925HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+72HR 31.1N 133.5E 940HPA 50M/S (100 kts)
P+96HR 38.9N 140.2E 955HPA 40M/S= (80 kts)

--
That is a deep central pressure (905 hPa)
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Quoting Weather456:
lol

The MET on TWC said the remnants of Parma is now moving into Texas. The Hurricane Authority.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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Quoting flsky:

I have to take another exception here. I have personally sat in an evacuation center and helped people fill out forms and help them gather information they need when most of their forms and papers have been destroyed. I have been in neighborhoods w/in walking distance of disaster epicenters where a aid centers are set up. I have been part of groups of people going door-to-door checking on those who may be housebound and helping them fill out forms and holding hands and listening to their stories. I know public agencies get a bad rap in the press - what isn't publicized as much is all the good, selfless, helpful work that is done. I don't know what the situation has been for the Baxters b/c I'm not on this blog all of the time. It's just hard for me to believe that Portlight is the only group that sought to help them. I only wish them the best and will help them as I can, as well.



Flsky, you are the kind of person of whom we need more. I have done all of those things, too, and I must say the individual people volunteering are awesome. I really do speak from more than one experience, but I must agree that there is a wealth of generous, kind people in this country who will selflessly give to the less fortunate.
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Quoting Weather456:
lol

The MET on TWC said the remants of Parma is now moving into Texas. The Hurricane Authority.


lol I thought Parma was a strong tropical storm and near-stationary. lol

I wish I was watching to hear that.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
398. flsky
Quoting presslord:
we probably weren't the only organization...but we were damned sure the first...by about a week...

THat's great! When I was personally affected by a disaster (3 feet of water in my house) the Salvation Army was there first followed in about an hour by the Red Cross. (Actually, the fire department was there first to help us out of the house.)
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Quoting presslord:
456...you've gotta be makin' that up...


lol, nope. He actually just came back on to correct himself. But it was funny since he sounded so sure.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
456...you've gotta be makin' that up...
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lol

The MET on TWC said the remnants of Parma is now moving into Texas. The Hurricane Authority.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
We could unofficially name it ourselves something and call it that for now on..or we could continue to call it 90L. Just a suggestion.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
393. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" is moving west slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #19
=======================
At 5:00 a.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 20.1ºN 119.5ºE or 220 kms north northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 km/h (65 kts) with gusts up to 150 km/h (80 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Norte

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Batanes Group
2.Northern Cagayan
3.Babuyan Islands
4.Calayan Islands
5.Ilocos Sur
6.Abra
7.Kalinga
8.Apayao

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.Rest of Cagayan
2.La Union
3.Benguet
4.Mt. Province

Additional Information
===========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 A.M. today.
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Gettin kinda tired of the NHC bashing If all of you are so Good go take over and work there
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we probably weren't the only organization...but we were damned sure the first...by about a week...
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390. flsky
Quoting TexNowNM:


The working poor and the regular middle class are often penalized in this whole disaster thing. No one can be fully prepared to be wiped out; it is not possible.

Another problem is that people who work for a living often are not conversant with how to navigate that whole network required to get help from the two mentioned organizations that turned down the Baxters. The working poor often lack the education skills needed to read and complete applications. Many have been so decimated they lack transportation to go apply. Heck, I have a very good Liberal Arts education and I have had to stop and think when helping others complete them.

From my own wide experience with disaster relief, it is faith based charities and community charities like PortLight that help those who don't receive help elsewhere.

I have never personally asked for a cent from either organization, but as a teacher at a very poor school, I was called on to help in disaster relief after a tornado, and my family was hit by multiple hurricanes. (Fortunately, we came out better than most.) I am also involved with disaster relief with a faith-based organization so I have "been around." Bad, bad experience with both organizations Presslord mentioned, with both the tornado and the hurricanes - more so with the non-government one. The stories I could tell......

I have to take another exception here. I have personally sat in an evacuation center and helped people fill out forms and help them gather information they need when most of their forms and papers have been destroyed. I have been in neighborhoods w/in walking distance of disaster epicenters where a aid centers are set up. I have been part of groups of people going door-to-door checking on those who may be housebound and helping them fill out forms and holding hands and listening to their stories. I know public agencies get a bad rap in the press - what isn't publicized as much is all the good, selfless, helpful work that is done. I don't know what the situation has been for the Baxters b/c I'm not on this blog all of the time. It's just hard for me to believe that Portlight is the only group that sought to help them. I only wish them the best and will help them as I can, as well.
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there are, btw, some outstandin big international NGO's who do a very effective job...the one Orca was flogging for Samoa...Caritas...is a good example...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.