An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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Kman...When or if do you think they will label it an invest?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11745
Quoting tornadodude:


where are they orca? did you eat them again? :P


Man, I just GAVE them my last box... BTW, how can an 8pm TWO be late when it is only 7:49pm...
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Quoting presslord:


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8383
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


CURRT AOI NEAR 13N/39W
LOOKS PRETTY WELL AHI MAMA!
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Quoting CosmicEvents:

The floater is going through PORP(pre-occular re-repositioning) as we speak. Should be up soon on-line.


Cool beans... Thanks.
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Oh, what the heck...
RED
(Don't really believe that...just a reminder to be careful what you wish for, you might get it...)
Wilma, Oct. 2005
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
TWO is runnin late must be looking for the crayons


where are they orca? did you eat them again? :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8383
Quoting Ameister12:

I know! When I first saw it, I was surprised on how big it is.

...if I had a nickel for every time I've heard that...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10513
Good evening everyone.

I have not been on for quite some time due to quiet conditions out in the basin.

The CATL feature has improved during the day and is the best thing we have seen for weeks. Right now it is benefitting from diffluent conditions aloft which are helping to ventilate the system. While still not ideal they are the best we have seen out there in weeks.

Convection is on the increase this evening so I would expect the NHC to go to orange sometime between tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15982
TWO is runnin late must be looking for the crayons
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Quoting Dakster:
Anyone else find this annoying?

Espeically, if there are only a few features that are of interest out there, why can't the NHC (or SSD) put the floaters on them? They used to keep floaters on "suspected" areas more often than they do now.

With 4 floaters, the top 4 areas of concern should always be available. ARGH... Just my frustration for the day.

The floater is going through PORP(pre-occular re-positioning) as we speak. Should be up soon on-line.
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Quoting JRRP:

omg is so huge

reminds me of bill what do you guys think
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476. JRRP
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Quoting Hurricane009:
look at comment # 448 or #458

Oh!

I'm guessing A.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


CURRT AOI NEAR 13N/39W


I meant to ask you, why does your images squeeze up. Sometimes it's difficult to see
them and what they are showing.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
code red
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i would say orange alert
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polls close in about 6-7 min
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Quoting Ameister12:

I know! When I first saw it, I was surprised on how big it is.


Why Thank you...
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CURRT AOI NEAR 13N/39W
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Quoting JRRP:

omg is so huge

I know! When I first saw it, I was surprised on how big it is.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Wait, What?


I meant B but could be A.

In other words, either A or B.

Refer to post 448 for what I mean
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
465. flsky
Quoting presslord:



yup...but the needless complexity of it all is scandalous

On another note, too many that didn't deserve help would be taking advantage of things.
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464. JRRP
Quoting Ameister12:
91L is born.

omg is so huge
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463. IKE
Quoting antonio28:


Recent satelite loop show the shower and TT assosiate with the CATL wave becaming more organize only thing left to have 91L is the COC confimation by the tonight Dpass if don't miss it. Is Grace saying Hello I am here going to land populated area's (somewhere in the Caribbean) still to be see! An upgrade to orange seems quite reasonable in this upcomming TWO.


Latest 18Z GFS takes it into the Caribbean as a low...stronger on this run.
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Anyone else find this annoying?

Espeically, if there are only a few features that are of interest out there, why can't the NHC (or SSD) put the floaters on them? They used to keep floaters on "suspected" areas more often than they do now.

With 4 floaters, the top 4 areas of concern should always be available. ARGH... Just my frustration for the day.
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A
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Quoting IKE:
I think the CATL wave gets a 30-50% chance on the new TWO.


Recent satelite loop show the shower and TT assosiate with the CATL wave becaming more organize only thing left to have 91L is the COC confimation by the tonight Dpass if don't miss it. Is Grace saying Hello I am here going to land populated area's (somewhere in the Caribbean) still to be see! An upgrade to orange seems quite reasonable in this upcomming TWO.
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Quoting Magicchaos:
b but a is also possible

Wait. What?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Presslord: Here is an article and contact info. Hope this helps.
Mrs Susan Olde, and Reverend Graeme Thomson, representatives of the charity I AM CO recently presented H.E. the Governor, Bruce Dinwiddy with a cheque for US$750,000 in support of the Cayman Islands National Recovery Fund (NRF).

The Governor, who is also Chairman of the NRF’s Board of Trustees, thanked I AM CO on behalf of the Government and people of Cayman for such a generous donation, saying: "This substantial cash donation to the National Recovery Fund comes as we prepare to launch an international publicity drive for the fund.

I AM CO’s donation will give a great boost to our campaign. I hope that many other individuals, foundations and corporations will follow Mrs Olde’s example, and show how much they care about Cayman, especially at a time when our community is in need of so much more help to assist in the recovery process."P.O. Box 10256
Grand Cayman
KY1-1003

e: wendy@iamco.org.ky
e: donovan@iamco.org.ky

Ph: 345.947.4010
F: 345.947.4012



o n it thanks!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10513
a
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A
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b but a is also possible
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
448. We will probally know within the next 10 minutes.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11745
91L's chances of developing are fair.
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451. xcool





Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
If this feature develops a circulation, the models would not verify since they all kept this feature an open wave. If it does, then the models did not compensate the improvement in the upper environment by a change in organization. This is why you can't always jump on-board with models, use the models to guide your thinking, not to think for you.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
449. xcool
b
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
poll time!!!!
what will the next TWO show
(A) yellow
(B) orange
(C) red
polls close in 20-25 min
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Quoting tornadodude:


Golf and alcohol dont mix, that's why I dont drink and drive
YES HE DID TODAY....MIA 38-BUFF 10
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Quoting Ameister12:
91L is born.
not yet
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445. IKE
I think the CATL wave gets a 30-50% chance on the new TWO.
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check it out
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Showers continue to increase with the tropical wave of interest. At this rate if it cam maintain it overnight, Invest 91L likely. The Showers are a bit more organize but not what I would like to see.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
442. beell
Thanks, W456.
I had it at about 80-being generous.
I'll stick with this being a small (and interesting) feature rotating around a low in the N ATL.

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Quoting presslord:



yup...but the needless complexity of it all is scandalous

I absolutely agree! And who the heck approved gov't. letters that say "denial" INSTEAD of "request for more information" in the first couple lines should be arse-whipped.
(Note to self and others: start nagging this new administration about this stuff. Sure didn't work with old administration...)
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440. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
yes, "T" are lows
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Quoting Ameister12:
91L is born.

WOW LET THROW A PARTY :)
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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