Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

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Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Orcasystems:


BZ to the Coasties :)



impressive!
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Quoting timtrice:


I'm looking at pictures of girls in bikinis on the beach right now


LOL
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BZ to the Coasties :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26505
Quoting Orcasystems:
Now this would be a fun place to go :)

Rio de Janeiro has won the race to host the 2016 Olympics, beating Madrid in the final round of voting.


I'm looking at pictures of girls in bikinis on the beach right now
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There has been a lot of flooding in countries along the Mediterranean See during the last two weeks. Now unfortunately 18 people died in Sicily because of mudslides.

Report:
Two buildings have collapsed in a mudslide triggered by torrential rains in Sicily, Italy, leaving at least 17 people killed and 35 others missing.

Up to 250 millimeters (10 inches) of rain fell in the space of a few hours on Thursday, leaving ten people seriously injured and some 415 others homeless, AFP quoted emergency services spokesman Giampiero Gliubizzi as saying.

Gliubizzi confirmed the collapse of the two buildings, adding that sniffer dogs were searching for victims in the rubble.

In Messina city in the northeast of the Italian island, officials were concerned with a heavier death toll in the more inaccessible parts of the southern island.

In a Friday statement, Sicily's regional presidency said the toll was sure to rise and that the damage was 'incalculable', urging authorities in Rome to take "preventive measures so that such disasters do not recur."

Mudslides have disrupted communications, swept away dozens of cars between Messina and several coastal towns south of the city and prompted the government to declare a state of emergency in the region.

Witnesses said in some towns such as Molino, south of Messina, houses were suddenly flooded with mud which rose up to seven meters (23 feet), reducing buildings to rubbles in no time.

Local officials blamed the 'predictable' disaster on inadequate storm drainage systems, criticizing authorities for aggravating hydro-geological imbalance in the region by allowing for illegal constructions.

MRS/MMN
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 50 Comments: 5517
Now this would be a fun place to go :)

Rio de Janeiro has won the race to host the 2016 Olympics, beating Madrid in the final round of voting.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26505
Quoting Weather456:
Good afternoon

Tropical update


Good morning/afternoon right back at you 456.. nice update BTW :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26505
Good afternoon

Tropical update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076


Landfall track is slowly moving South ...

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000
FXUS63 KIND 021730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE SHORT TERM WL BE HOW FAR S THE WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS WL GET TNGT AND TOMORROW AND HOW COOL TEMPS ARE AS A COLD
POOL SETTLES IN ACRS CNTRL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.

CD FNT HAS MOVED WELL E OF THE FA ACRS WCNTRL OH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ATTENDENT SFC AND UPR LOW`S WERE ACRS NERN IA
AND SERN MN. VSBL SATELLITE PICS AND SFC OBS WERE SHOWING SC
WRAPAROUND FIELD SPREADING ACRS ALL BUT THE XTRM SRN FA WITH
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS ACRS IA AND THE DAKOTAS MOVING S
AND E AROUND THE LOWS. THERE WAS ALSO A FEW POP UPS ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF IL.

PREFER THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER S QPF FIELDS OF THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO
THE NAM BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MEANWHILE...GFS MOS WAS BETTER
REGARDING POPS TNGT AND THE NAM BETTER TOMORROW. WITH THAT IN MIND...
WL LOWER POPS TNGT N AND TAKE THEM OUT FAR S WHICH ALSO LINES UP
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THEN...WL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS IN
ALL BUT THE SRN TWO TIERS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MODEL TIME SECS
SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE FM 850 MB AND BLW THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS FAVOR SCT DIURNAL CU AND BKN CU N IN ANY HOLES
THAT WOULD DEVELOP. WITH CLOUDS AROUND TNGT FAVOR THE WARMER
MAV...BUT HEAVILY FAVOR THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...NAM IS EVEN TRENDING COOLER...AND IT MAY EVEN
NOT EVEN REACH NAM NUMBERS BASED ON PROJECTED 850 TEMPS ONLY FROM 1
TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SATURDAY.

UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS WL BEGIN HEADING N TOWARDS HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE N SATURDAY NGT TO KEEP
IT DRY. SRN PARTS OF THE FA COULD ALSO SEE SOME CLRG...ENOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 DEGREES SATURDAY THERE PER SIMILAR MOS.
TEMPS N WL LIKELY ONLY DROP TO THE MID 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS.

COULD SEE SOME BREAKS ON SUNDAY EVEN IN THE N...ALTHOUGH CU
DEVELOOMENT PROGS FAVOR AT LEAST SCT DIURNAL CU. ALSO...850 TEMPS
WARM A FEW DEGREES TO 3 TO 7 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RN STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NGT AS AN UPR LOW SETS UP
ACRS SRN CA ALLOWING FAST SW FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE OH VLY AND
TRANSPORT OF MOIST PACIFIC AIRMASS.

&&
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Quoting tornadofan:


Lots of pretty numbers and letters there, T-dude.


haha yeah, it's the GFS MOS for Indianapolis
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oohhh, those poor folks in the Philippines! Given their history with our country I fervently hope they are right there at the front of the line for US disaster relief - with American Samoa.
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Quoting tornadodude:
GFS MOS FORECASTS

KIND GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/02/2009 1200 UTC
DT /OCT 2/OCT 3 /OCT 4 /OCT 5
HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X 48 62 45 65 47
TMP 61 61 55 52 52 51 50 54 59 59 55 51 49 47 46 55 61 63 58 51 49
DPT 43 42 40 40 41 41 42 44 44 43 42 42 42 42 42 45 44 43 43 44 44
CLD OV BK BK OV OV OV OV BK OV OV OV BK SC FW FW FW BK BK BK CL FW
WDR 24 24 22 20 20 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 09 06
WSP 19 16 08 08 09 09 10 12 14 13 07 07 07 06 05 06 09 08 05 03 05
P06 3 10 30 12 3 7 6 3 2 2 5
P12 38 12 13 4 5
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 0 0 0 0 0
T06 1/ 0 2/ 8 3/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 8 2/ 0 1/ 1 1/ 2 0/ 0
T12 2/ 8 3/ 2 1/ 8 2/ 1 1/ 9
POZ 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
SNW 0 0 0
CIG 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N



Lots of pretty numbers and letters there, T-dude.
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GFS MOS FORECASTS

KIND GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/02/2009 1200 UTC
DT /OCT 2/OCT 3 /OCT 4 /OCT 5
HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X 48 62 45 65 47
TMP 61 61 55 52 52 51 50 54 59 59 55 51 49 47 46 55 61 63 58 51 49
DPT 43 42 40 40 41 41 42 44 44 43 42 42 42 42 42 45 44 43 43 44 44
CLD OV BK BK OV OV OV OV BK OV OV OV BK SC FW FW FW BK BK BK CL FW
WDR 24 24 22 20 20 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 09 06
WSP 19 16 08 08 09 09 10 12 14 13 07 07 07 06 05 06 09 08 05 03 05
P06 3 10 30 12 3 7 6 3 2 2 5
P12 38 12 13 4 5
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 0 0 0 0 0
T06 1/ 0 2/ 8 3/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 8 2/ 0 1/ 1 1/ 2 0/ 0
T12 2/ 8 3/ 2 1/ 8 2/ 1 1/ 9
POZ 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
SNW 0 0 0
CIG 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

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Good afternoon guys,

Storm, thanks for explaining the MJO graph, I always got mixed up on it
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Quoting IKE:


LOL....yo bud.


Hey Ike...

Good thing the GOM is under 40kt of shear. Hopefully I am reading StormW's shear map correctly. I don't like those cut-off lows/fronts this time of the year...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10020
Hi everyone, I posted my analysis on typhoon Parma and the rest of the tropics here. Unfortunately, it appears Parma will be hanging around for a while.
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59. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Today's Understatement Award...


LOL....yo bud.
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Great stuff Storm,always struggled with how to read those charts.
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Quoting IKE:
West-Pac is on fire.

Atlantic is quiet. Fifty-nine days left.


Today's Understatement Award...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10020
Well, I'm headed out here while the skies are clear. Depending on things at work, I may or may not be on later this afternoon.

I don't think we'll see any tropical development w/ the area over the Bahamas right now - does anyone? - but it does represent a significant increase in moisture in the basin. A sign that MJO is on the upswing in the area?

Later.
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Nobody looking at our little boy in the eastern north atlantic basin? Here it is...

Member Since: October 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
Quoting IKE:
Ike or anyone: What is the RMM1 and RMM2 graphic and how is it used? Thanks.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. The Philippines' have had it rough this year.
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90L was deactivated this morning.

10/02/2009 11:50AM 1,089 invest_DEACTIVATE_al902009.ren
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Quoting winter123:
90l. some fairly deep convection firing, right over the center. Too weak to be name worthy but I don't think anyone could argue it doesn't have some tropical charictaristics.



even some outflow on the left side. WV loop
This is the Azores bit, right? I noticed that feature yesterday, but didn't think it would garner enough interest to even get invest status....
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Quoting TampaSpin:


So an Extratropical is linked to a front while a SubTropical is not linked to a front but has stronger winds several miles from the center but, is still with warm core characteristics.


It's completely arbitrary, and thats what p***es me, and hopefully a lot of others off. If that azores low looked exactly the same as it does, but was 200 miles east of NYC, it would have been named a STS yesterday when it had that eye like appearance. Even now, the strongest winds with the system are packed in close with a clearly defined LLCC, and deep convection being produced by the center, and is not connected to any front (still). It may be too weak now, however, but it should have been declared yesterday if they truly care about naming Subtropical Systems. They do not. Same deal with 92L in May, and that was significantly stronger and more well defined than this one.
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Parma Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
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Parma JSL Still Image

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this thing is pretty sketchy if you ask me. Detatched from front now, lots of convection, little shear.. although no surface low.

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90l. some fairly deep convection firing, right over the center. Too weak to be name worthy but I don't think anyone could argue it doesn't have some tropical charictaristics.



even some outflow on the left side. WV loop
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#39.

Looks like Parma will hold on long enough to bring some stormy weather to Taiwan and even the mainland...

Power is back here. I never understand this place; we've gone through cat 2 hurricanes when the power stayed on, but a passing thundershower puts the lights out...
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Just another day in paradise
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Ah, sounds like BEC trucks outside...
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Good Afternoon!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
34. IKE
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Wow. Well, we now have clear skies, but our power just went off.

???
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
read what I wrote above and it stands for Georgetown, Guyana.
Kewl. I have some friends from Guyana who are living here in Nassau. Are u actually living in GT right now?

I sometimes forget Guyana is geographically not in the Caribbean... So u guys have very small likelihood of getting an actual hurricane, but regular rainy season is tied to ITCZ, correct?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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