Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

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Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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131. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
I stick around through the winter and this is what the blog is like,shhhhhh!


I remember you posting in the winter.
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Current Conditions Manila Wu page


Manila, PH (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 53 sec ago
Light Rain
82 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 79 °F
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129. IKE
Quoting BrowardJeff:

I care a bit - I spent a few years in Tallahassee. Brings back memories.
I don't miss having to scrape frost of my windshield, or turning on the car before breakfast so the engine is warmed up. I'd never make it living any further north than that!

The only thing I liked when it got cold was that I could stop somewhere on the way home from the grocery store and not worry about the milk going bad.


LOL. I just get sick of humidity. And then the bugs...spiders...ants...they feed off of humidity and warm weather.
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128. xcool
Southwest U.S. Tropical Cyclones
from Chris Hebert .


2009
As the Atlantic Basin remains very quiet, today’s blog update looks at tropical cyclones which impacted the southwestern U.S. It was prepared by Dante Diaz, a member of my hurricane team.

When it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes, the headlines are often focused on some community between Brownsville, TX and Eastport, ME or a Caribbean vacation destination. You almost never hear about hurricanes and tropical storms impacting California. However, there are a few rare ones that manage to find their way to California and the Southwest, at least at tropical storm strength. There are two good reasons why such systems are so rare.

First, the sea surface temperatures off the coast of California are much too cold to support a tropical cyclone. Second, the vast majority of systems forming in the East Pacific are driven westward by a large area of high pressure to their north. To make it to California or the Southwest as a tropical storm, several factors must come together. There needs to be a break in the ridge of high pressure to the north. In addition, the tropical system needs to have both the speed and strength to overcome the cold waters off California or the high and dry terrain of the Desert Southwest.
The list of those that have made it to the southwestern United States is short to say the least. Four systems are known to have produced sustained winds to tropical storm force winds here (Chenoweth and Landsea 2004). They are a September 1939 tropical storm that hit California, Joanne, 1972 that impacted Arizona, Kathleen that struck California and Arizona in 1976, and Nora that reached Arizona in 1997. In addition, Chenoweth and Landsea (2004) have done a study of a system in 1858. Their findings indicate that this system brought winds to hurricane force over coastal San Diego on October 2, 1858. Although there are a few other systems indicated to be at tropical storm strength over the Southwest in the National Hurricane Center best track database (such as Lester, 1992), only the aforementioned five systems were observed to have produced winds to tropical storm force in the United States. Numerous other systems reached the southwestern United States as weakening tropical depressions. Only the September 1939 tropical storm made landfall. Joanne, Kathleen and Nora made landfall in Mexico before entering the United States. The San Diego Hurricane of 1858 remained just offshore.

The main threat from any tropical cyclone in the Southwest is the potential for destructive flash floods. If the 1939 tropical storm was to strike again today, Chenoweth and Landsea (2004) estimate it would cause as much as $200 million (in 2004 dollars) in damages. Although unique in the historical record, the San Diego Hurricane shows that even California is not immune to the effects of hurricanes. The high tides, heavy rains, and winds to hurricane force would bring even greater damage totals, on the order of several hundred million dollars today in coastal southern California.

Weakening tropical cyclones may bring heavy rain and flash floods to the Southwest, but there is still the potential for a greater hazard on the California coast. Once in a while, the weather patterns manage to bring a hurricane out of the Tropical Pacific to the shores of southern California, inflicting the kind of damage usually seen over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States.



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


My mistake; not sure what conditions will be in the Summer/Fall of 2010.

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 September 2009

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Fig. 5) suggest El Niño will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index in excess of +1.5°C) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Niño will most likely peak at moderate strength. Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño during the winter 2009-10.
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I stick around through the winter and this is what the blog is like,shhhhhh!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


Way to far away to make any predictions... I think the ocean will dry up next year and we will have dust devils to watch. Now thats a prediction. "no water in ocean nino"
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Quoting IKE:


I'll BS about my local weather, even though no one really cares.

I care a bit - I spent a few years in Tallahassee. Brings back memories.
I don't miss having to scrape frost of my windshield, or turning on the car before breakfast so the engine is warmed up. I'd never make it living any further north than that!

The only thing I liked when it got cold was that I could stop somewhere on the way home from the grocery store and not worry about the milk going bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
123. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Personally I enjoy the peace..

2010's going to be really bad on here though I can tell you that.


It is nice to be able to say what I want to. Being that I can now....I never thought I would see a season like this one in the Atlantic.

Six named systems...all within a 4 week period of time. No hurricane warning for the USA. No hurricane past 70W.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


That's a good question.

I'll say this much...IF it does and appears to possible carry through the 2010 season, I'm not following June and July like I did this year.

I'm sorry for anyone on this planet experiencing tropical activity...especially like the west-Pac has, but this season in the Atlantic is a total yawner.

If hindsight was 20/20...it wasn't worth the time.
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Quoting rwdobson:
"I understand the difference between Tropical and ExtraTropical... why do they need one in the middle? Especially if there is no clear consensus of the difference."

I would agree there. I'm not sure what the purpose of naming these sub-trop storms is. There's been a lot of debate about naming marginal TS/STS in this blog this summer, mostly due to the slow pace. I just don't know what it gains in terms of public knowledge or preparedness.


More on this issue...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Personally I enjoy the peace..

2010's going to be really bad on here though I can tell you that.


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?
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120. xcool
blog doom


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Personally I enjoy the peace..

2010's going to be really bad on here though I can tell you that.
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118. IKE
Quoting Floodman:


I hear that...


LOL...I don't remember you being on here last off-season? I'm not saying I blame you, just don't remember you posting much in the winter.

Don't remember weathermanwannabe posting much either in the off-season.

I'll BS about my local weather, even though no one really cares.
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Helloooooooooooo....Back to lurk mode :)
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Quoting IKE:
This is how this blog is in the off-season. Dead as a doornail.

The tropical Atlantic is this blogs survival.


I hear that...
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115. IKE
This is how this blog is in the off-season. Dead as a doornail.

The tropical Atlantic is this blogs survival.
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Quoting Floodman:
Hmmm...is anyone here?


Hello, Echo, Echo, Echo
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Hmmm...is anyone here?
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Just a comment on Typhoon Ketsana from a friend who has family in Manila. Parents house had 3' of water rush through it, Cousins house had water up to the ceiling of 1st floor, they were trapped on the 2nd floor for over 2 days, and finally, her friends house had water up to the roof, when the waters receded they discovered many bodies that had been caught in the first floor of their home. This is a story from just 1 family. I can't imagine the devastation & loss of life this small country is experiencing. And another one, maybe two, on the way...............
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From the ATCF:

EP, 18, 2009100218, , BEST, 0, 234N, 1173W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 75, 1008, 295, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, M,

Olaf weakened, as forecast. Most likely due to increasing hostile conditions.

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107. IKE
12Z ECMWF shows quite an expansive high heading into the SE USA on the end of it's 10 day run. If that materializes it may be the final nail in the coffin along the northern gulf coast as far as the tropics.
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Quoting StormW:


The graphic, depending on which...let's go with real time, shows where the MJO is prevalent.

The further away from the center of the graph, the stronger the pulse (upward motion).

The octants we are concerned with here in the Atlantic Basin are 8, 1, and 2...generally when the MJO is in octants 1 and 2...is when we usually see development in the Atlantic.

This graphic show the last 90 days. If you look at mid and end Aug, you'll see how it comes out and is in octants 1 and 2...that's when we had our burst of activity

StormW, thanks. Your answer got me on the web for definition of MJO, etc. etc. Thanks, Tom
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Quoting StormW:


Aye!
Bravo Zulu!


You see anything in the Blob train coming off of Africa that may cause trouble, Storm?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
yuppers
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting 789:
check post 66


Thanks! On it!
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Quoting SSideBrac:


So long since I heard the term "BZ" - brought back some happy memories and a smile to my face - same as weather in the Caribbean at this time!


Its one of those nice to know ones.. the people who have been there know what it means :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511


Landfall Track
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
97. 789
Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie will be delivering a 34' truckload of household items, clothing, toys , etc., to the Baxters nin Lithia Springs, GA....compliments of our WU community...and it can all be seen...and commented upon....live @ www.portlight.org tomorrow beginning about 6A EST...
check post 66
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Link

ecmwf.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie will be delivering a 34' truckload of household items, clothing, toys , etc., to the Baxters nin Lithia Springs, GA....compliments of our WU community...and it can all be seen...and commented upon....live @ www.portlight.org tomorrow beginning about 6A EST...


Hey Press,

I'm going to try to raise money here at Purdue for Portlight, do you have any suggestions?

just WU-mail me
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Quoting StormW:
77. Orcasystems 2:34 PM EDT on October 02, 2009


BZ to the Coasties :)


Dat's my boys!


So long since I heard the term "BZ" - brought back some happy memories and a smile to my face - same as weather in the Caribbean at this time!
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Stormjunkie will be delivering a 34' truckload of household items, clothing, toys , etc., to the Baxters nin Lithia Springs, GA....compliments of our WU community...and it can all be seen...and commented upon....live @ www.portlight.org tomorrow beginning about 6A EST...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FXUS63 KIND 021730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE SHORT TERM WL BE HOW FAR S THE WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS WL GET TNGT AND TOMORROW AND HOW COOL TEMPS ARE AS A COLD
POOL SETTLES IN ACRS CNTRL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.

CD FNT HAS MOVED WELL E OF THE FA ACRS WCNTRL OH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ATTENDENT SFC AND UPR LOW`S WERE ACRS NERN IA
AND SERN MN. VSBL SATELLITE PICS AND SFC OBS WERE SHOWING SC
WRAPAROUND FIELD SPREADING ACRS ALL BUT THE XTRM SRN FA WITH
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS ACRS IA AND THE DAKOTAS MOVING S
AND E AROUND THE LOWS. THERE WAS ALSO A FEW POP UPS ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF IL.

PREFER THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER S QPF FIELDS OF THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO
THE NAM BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MEANWHILE...GFS MOS WAS BETTER
REGARDING POPS TNGT AND THE NAM BETTER TOMORROW. WITH THAT IN MIND...
WL LOWER POPS TNGT N AND TAKE THEM OUT FAR S WHICH ALSO LINES UP
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THEN...WL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS IN
ALL BUT THE SRN TWO TIERS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MODEL TIME SECS
SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE FM 850 MB AND BLW THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS FAVOR SCT DIURNAL CU AND BKN CU N IN ANY HOLES
THAT WOULD DEVELOP. WITH CLOUDS AROUND TNGT FAVOR THE WARMER
MAV...BUT HEAVILY FAVOR THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...NAM IS EVEN TRENDING COOLER...AND IT MAY EVEN
NOT EVEN REACH NAM NUMBERS BASED ON PROJECTED 850 TEMPS ONLY FROM 1
TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SATURDAY.

UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS WL BEGIN HEADING N TOWARDS HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE N SATURDAY NGT TO KEEP
IT DRY. SRN PARTS OF THE FA COULD ALSO SEE SOME CLRG...ENOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 DEGREES SATURDAY THERE PER SIMILAR MOS.
TEMPS N WL LIKELY ONLY DROP TO THE MID 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS.

COULD SEE SOME BREAKS ON SUNDAY EVEN IN THE N...ALTHOUGH CU
DEVELOOMENT PROGS FAVOR AT LEAST SCT DIURNAL CU. ALSO...850 TEMPS
WARM A FEW DEGREES TO 3 TO 7 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RN STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NGT AS AN UPR LOW SETS UP
ACRS SRN CA ALLOWING FAST SW FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE OH VLY AND
TRANSPORT OF MOIST PACIFIC AIRMASS.

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Millions exposed to worst of super typhoon: UN

Some 1.8 million people could be exposed to the worst winds from a super typhoon currently bearing down on the disaster-struck Philippines, the UN's humanitarian agency said on Friday.

"We are extremely concerned," said Elisabeth Byrs, spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

"Eight and a half million people live in the line of the typhoon and 1.8 million people live in areas along the path of the strongest winds." ................
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting 789:
how about olaf bringing rain into conus ?


well, my area forecast discussion mentioned moisture coming from the Pacific and affecting us next week
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89. 789
Quoting tornadodude:
alright, I'm going to work on a new blog update, any suggestions for the topic?
how about olaf bringing rain into conus ?
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alright, I'm going to work on a new blog update, any suggestions for the topic?
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87. 789
Quoting timtrice:


yea but there's something odd about it, though. can't quite place my finger on it...

Link

Now I'll probably get banned but,oh well. i'll be on vacation next two days, anyway
thanks
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Quoting timtrice:


yea but there's something odd about it, though. can't quite place my finger on it...

Link

Now I'll probably get banned but,oh well. i'll be on vacation next two days, anyway


nice LOL
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Quoting tornadodude:


LOL


yea but there's something odd about it, though. can't quite place my finger on it...

Link

Now I'll probably get banned but,oh well. i'll be on vacation next two days, anyway
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Quoting 789:
link please rofl


link if you squint really hard you might see them
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Quoting StormW:


How to read this:
GFS MOS


thanks Storm!
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82. 789
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL
link please rofl
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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