Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

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Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23┬░C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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Floodman, I would like to get some info to you outside of this blog and I do not know how to use the e-mail system on here.
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I think Chicklit has me on ignore...LOL

Hey, eyes, I'm glad to hear that too
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Don't I know....I have an NFIP # amongst many other Lic.


Wow, you too? Let's go to WU Mail and trade certs...LOL

No really, give it a minute or two and check your mail...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Watch it.. he does accidents also :)

lol Floodman :)
Well, it is not like I had to clean the seat of my chair or anything
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anyway, out for a while.
have a nice evening, folks.

US Navy Track
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Sorry, that was an accident


Watch it.. he does accidents also :)

lol Floodman :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Floodman:


Well, I'm glad to hear that...we in this industry get a fair anmount of hate mail...LOL
Don't I know....I have an NFIP # amongst many other Lic.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Melor
phys.org

CWB Taipei


Does anyone have any links for data in the Pacific? I'm ashamed ot say I donlt have much...I'd like to look at steering, shear and SSTs in front of these two monsters
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Parma's going to hit Luzon tomorrow.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Actually quite the opposite


Well, I'm glad to hear that...we in this industry get a fair anmount of hate mail...LOL
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Quoting Floodman:


Only quoting me does not fill me with confidence, eyes
Sorry, that was an accident
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Quoting Floodman:


Yes, actually...I run field operations (a fancy way of saying I babysit the field staff), among other things, for a medium sized IA firm. We contract to a number of carriers for all sorts of losses, but by far the majority of our business comes from Hurricanes.

Now you hate me, right?
Actually quite the opposite
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Quoting eyesontheweather:


Only quoting me does not fill me with confidence, eyes
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Quoting Floodman:


Yes, actually...I run field operations (a fancy way of saying I babysit the field staff), among other things, for a medium sized IA firm. We contract to a number of carriers for all sorts of losses, but by far the majority of our business comes from Hurricanes.

Now you hate me, right?
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
??? are you in the insurance industry???


Yes, actually...I run field operations (a fancy way of saying I babysit the field staff), among other things, for a medium sized IA firm. We contract to a number of carriers for all sorts of losses, but by far the majority of our business comes from Hurricanes.

Now you hate me, right?
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Melor
phys.org

CWB Taipei
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
Quoting Floodman:


Not wishing anyone any ill, but the money is much better when we deal with 20 or 30,000 claims...
??? are you in the insurance industry???
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Hello, chicklit...that's a nasty syotm
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Quoting Floodman:


Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this chart indicate a forecast waning of the El Nino? Looks to be moving towards neutral in the 1st and 2nd quarters next year...





you are correct Floodman
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90L -- Looks like the NHC is as bored as we are. You know none of them took vacations this time of year.

Not the case in the Phillipines with a "state of calamity" proclaimed and the hot towers of Parma are estimated at 8.5 miles high.
physorg.com
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
@158

No one takes into account the population growth factor; the additional stresses on a water system that was a bit better than adequate at full capacity with 20% fewer people will certainly show signs of a deeper drought when stressed. The question is, given the higher population density against the same resources, should we consider this a deeper drought? Shoud we adjust the figures based on the increased usage? What is average, drought wise, and how were those numbers attained? Was population and stress on the system figured into the old numbers?
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Looks like the next significant front won't be until late next week. But before that, some models are hinting at two high pressures stacked on top of each other(after the weak front washes out south of the area). Centered over central Florida. If that verifies, Orlando could see highs in the mid(possibly upper 90's in rural areas). Yet the good news is subsidence will keep the humidity from going up). As a matter of fact, the NWS is getting ready to take our rain chances out until Wednesday(note, these highs have nothing to do with the Bermuda Ridge which remains well south and east of the U.S. and is weak).

If this materializes, the ridge will quickly stall out by mid-week. Giving way to an impressive long-wave trough to settle over the eastern 2/3 of the nation. Bringing a parade of cold fronts well into the following week.
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Love the sound of crickets in the blog...
L8R
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Connecting some dots...concerning southeast US drought of 2005 - 2007.

1. U Columbia researchers "defied conventional wisdom about the drought by showing that it was mild compared to many others, and in fact no worse than one just a decade ago."
http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2541
According to the study, climate change has so far played no detectable role in the frequency or severity of droughts in the region, and its future effects there are uncertain; but droughts there are essentially unpredictable, and could strike again at any time. The study appears in the October edition of the Journal of Climate.

"The drought that caused so much trouble was pathetically normal and short, far less than what the climate system is capable of generating," said lead author Richard Seager, a climate modeler at Lamont. "People were saying that this was a 100-year drought, but it was pretty run-of-the-mill. The problem is, in the last 10 years population has grown phenomenally, and hardly anyone, including the politicians, has been paying any attention."


2. Dr. M, thankfully, suggested that that drought had nothing to do with any climate change (though everyone behind the CNN "science" desk was certain that it did)
Dr M's blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=886&tstamp=200801 However, for the U Colombia crew to call it pathetically normal, well, from Dr. M's post: "The year 2007 is in the record books as the driest or second driest year on record for much of the Southeastern U.S. A mere 31.85 inches of rain fell in Atlanta, Georgia, during the year, 62% of the average of 48 inches. This year's rainfall total just missed breaking the record of 31.80 inches set in 1954. Rainfall records in Atlanta go back to 1930. The drought was worse in Alabama, where Birmingham had its driest year on record--just 28.86", a full 25 inches below average, smashing the record low of 36.14" set in 1931. Huntsville was even drier--a mere 28.65"--29 inches below average. Surrounding areas of Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Kentucky and Virginia also experienced extraordinarily dry years".
I suppose it may have been rather normal region-wide...I guess.

3. Hey over there, wake up! You might have a bigger problem someday soon. From the Colombia study: The factor that has changed in the meantime is population. In 1990, Georgia, which uses a quarter of the region's water, had 6.5 million people. By 2007, there were 9.5 million, up almost 50 percent in 17 years. The population is still ascending, driven largely by migration. However, little has been done to increase water storage or reduce consumption. There has been increased sewage discharge near water supplies, and vast tracts of land have been covered with impermeable roofs, roads and parking lots, which drain rainfall away rapidly instead of storing it.

And then, a reconstruction by tree rings. (Wait a minute...how can they tell which tree rings are larger/smaller from tempteratures or rainfall?
Stan: Hey Bob, come see.
Bob: Yes?
Stan: Is that a cold-year small tree ring or a drought year small tree ring?
Bob: Well, it's warm out today, so let's call that one a drought year instead a of a cold year.
Stan: Ummmm, okay.)

Backatit...
So the tree ring construction of rainfall by year in the southeast (brown=less than normal rainfall, green=above normal):

Seager and his coauthors Alexandrina Tzanova and Jennifer Nakamura put the period in context by comparing it with instrumental weather records from the last century and studies of tree-growth rings, which vary according to rainfall, for the last 1,000 years. These records show that far more severe, extended region-wide events came in 1555-1574, 1798-1826 and 1834-1861, with certain areas suffering beyond those times. The 1500s drought, which ran into the 1600s in some areas, has been linked by other studies to the destruction of early Spanish and English New World colonies, including Jamestown, Va., where 80 percent of settlers died in a short time. The 20th century turned out relatively wet, but the study showed that even a 1998-2002 drought was worse than that in 2005-2007.

Caveats aside, (as much as possible, anyway) interesting work.
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Quoting IKE:


Yee HAW!!!!!


I was thinking more like tap dancing...you know, the Buck and Wing
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this chart indicate a forecast waning of the El Nino? Looks to be moving towards neutral in the 1st and 2nd quarters next year...



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155. IKE
Quoting Floodman:
Man, so this is what the off season is like...so what, do we sing and dance?


Yee HAW!!!!!
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154. JLPR
looking very interesting =P



im finally back after a accounting exam :|
didn't do so well, I think =S
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Man, so this is what the off season is like...so what, do we sing and dance?
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Let's see! The Atlantic basin and E Pacific has dying TS Olaf. Kinda boring.

PLAN B. The W PAC has Typhoon Parma & Typhoon Melor. Parma is going to affect the Philippines and God knows where from there. Melor is going to pass by Saipan and is forecast to be a 95KT Typhoon off the Japan coast, within 100 mi of Tokyo.

During the N Hemisphere's winter the S Hemisphere has a "Cyclone" season.

Everyone here MIGHT be bored. I am thoroughly enjoying tracking and watching the W PAC storms and during the winter, I'll enjoy watching activity off of Australia and in the S hemisphere. Plus all the crazy, wild & wacky weather in the US, Canada, Europe, etc. during the winter season.

May I ask, what "whine" would you like with that cheese? LOL.

I thought weather lovers LOVED watching the weather. Does it MATTER where?

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting IKE:


LOL...I don't remember you being on here last off-season? I'm not saying I blame you, just don't remember you posting much in the winter.

Don't remember weathermanwannabe posting much either in the off-season.

I'll BS about my local weather, even though no one really cares.
I care. Its interesting to see what is going on 14 miles eastward of me. lol
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150. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
149. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry, internet access problems all p.m.....

The blog isn't THAT dead all the time in the off season.... more like having time-related spikes...early morning, late p.m., early evening EDT, anytime there's a major in one of the other basins.....


I would say it averages 100-200 posts per day. I would agree, it's not dead all of the time. On average it's slow to very slow.
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148. IKE
Quoting Floodman:


Not wishing anyone any ill, but the money is much better when we deal with 20 or 30,000 claims...


I hear ya.

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Sorry, internet access problems all p.m.....

The blog isn't THAT dead all the time in the off season.... more like having time-related spikes...early morning, late p.m., early evening EDT, anytime there's a major in one of the other basins.....
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Quoting IKE:


Oops..that explains it. Sorry.

Bet your glad 2009 has been quiet.


Not wishing anyone any ill, but the money is much better when we deal with 20 or 30,000 claims...
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I was wondering if anyone knows of any links I could use for historical tracks for winter snowstorms and what not?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Goes both ways, if 2010 is active then its full of wishcasters, if 2010's going to be an El Nino then its going to be full of downcasters. Both really miserable.


I hear ya; but it is amusing to watch and participate in something that no one can actually predict with any real certainty...Like Dr. M's take yesterday as to 2 more storms including one hurricane in mid-to-late October. I'm having trouble seeing it but looking at all the "blobs" still around the Atlantic right now, all it would take is for sheer to drop somewhere in the right place before everything really starts to die down in November.

Well.....Enjoy the weekend folks....Off to take the little one to an early rehearsal for the Nutcracker......WW
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143. IKE
Sunday night weather here...afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

"SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...IT
APPEARS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MASS OF MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLAF
AND THE WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT
MANY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL
KEEP LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S."

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Quoting Orcasystems:


bad man say dirty word....


Just for saying it I'll ban myself
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Proof of Global Warming!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz4Rs2F3ZSg
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


Goes both ways, if 2010 is active then its full of wishcasters, if 2010's going to be an El Nino then its going to be full of downcasters. Both really miserable.
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Quoting NEwxguy:


Yep,I think we spend alot of the time avoiding the GW fights that always crop up when the blog is quiet.Oops,I said it didn't I.


bad man say dirty word....
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Good day, Dr. Masters and fellow bloggers! Thanks for the update, hope all is well!

Typhoon Parma and the Philippines have an unfortunate meeting scheduled coming up this weekend. I hope the Philippine people have received adequate warning, that they have heeded the warnings and that people will be safe.

An "idealistic" thought to prevent the floods time after time after time. It would be great if the IMF and World Bank would assist the Philippines and other W Pacific nations to develop "flood control", ie; Dams and dregded , improved river basin controls to catch and re-release the waters out to the Pacific.

Ten of thousands of people would be put to work, untold thousands of lives would be saved, considering the W Pacific is "Typhoon Alley".

And billions of dollars would be saved throughout the years. My $ .02, for all it's worth!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
137. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yep,I think we spend alot of the time avoiding the GW fights that always crop up when the blog is quiet.Oops,I said it didn't I.


I remember...lol.
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Quoting IKE:


I remember you posting in the winter.


Yep,I think we spend alot of the time avoiding the GW fights that always crop up when the blog is quiet.Oops,I said it didn't I.
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135. IKE
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, I was a little busy working Hurricane Ike claim reviews...LOL


Oops..that explains it. Sorry.

Bet your glad 2009 has been quiet.
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Quoting IKE:


LOL...I don't remember you being on here last off-season? I'm not saying I blame you, just don't remember you posting much in the winter.

Don't remember weathermanwannabe posting much either in the off-season.

I'll BS about my local weather, even though no one really cares.


Yeah, I was a little busy working Hurricane Ike claim reviews...LOL
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133. IKE
Quoting Patrap:

Current Conditions Manila Wu page


Manila, PH (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 53 sec ago
Light Rain
82 ░F
Light Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 79 ░F


Dew point of 79...talk about oppressive. I feel sorry for those people over there. A living hell with these storms.
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WunderMap®
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
131. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
I stick around through the winter and this is what the blog is like,shhhhhh!


I remember you posting in the winter.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.