Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 231 - 181

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

231. stormwatcherCI
11:56 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting stormpetrol:
You have to watch those fronts that trail down in GOM or NW Caribbean this time of year, sometimes they take quite a few days to spawn anything.
Like Paloma.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8325
230. Floodman
11:54 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Okay folks, my testers have completed their tasks and Floodman is going home...tomorrow is College ball and Sunday the pros...I love the fall!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
229. Orcasystems
11:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Hurrah.. the work day is almost over.....
Mind you. still have to work Saturday :(


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
228. Skyepony (Mod)
11:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Perma has weakened more.. MIMIC as it's coming in for a landfall. This really shows how a band repels a storm from land somewhat & a dry slot won't stop it a bit. It's built up it's core on the NW side a little now & what's behind looks like it could maintain that. Should roll NW contouring the land, just off shore. May see Parma run over the little bit of land that sticks out on the NE side.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37820
227. Floodman
11:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting 789:
oo9 is what license ?


You know, 007, James Bond?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
226. weatherbro
11:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting weatherbro:
I'm starting to wonder about the accuracy of the models...This front is not lossing any steam and looks poised to come-through C. Florida.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1286
225. JLPR
11:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting P451:


This was yesterday: 90L



impressive
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
224. Floodman
11:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting hydrus:
Probably because it helps him adjust the field when he is stocking dividends...J/K..Hello Floodman, thank you for your response to the E-Mail I sent. I am glad that somebody understood what I meant.


No worries...I respond to every and all emails and especially for folks I like
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
223. stormpetrol
11:49 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
You have to watch those fronts that trail down in GOM or NW Caribbean this time of year, sometimes they take quite a few days to spawn anything.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7833
222. Floodman
11:49 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:

I think that is the point of that U Colombia study. According to the tree rings (slurp, gain of salt taken) there have been longer periods of less rainfall in the past than 2005 - 2007, so much so that the most recent drought period falls into the unremarkable category. But in those historical times of lacking rainfall there was not the present day demands on available water.

(I know you lean a different way, but I am not one to hold back my true opinions, so...)
There is so much we could work on if we applied the fervor of AGW to more obvious, proven, with a clear cause-effect relationship environmental issues that we could actually make amends for and have an effect. Alas, the environmental political capital is used up and the EPA is busy.


I'm not all the way either way; I lean towards the CC end of things based on the idea that you can only dump so much into a closed system before you effect that system. 6 billion of us, all dumping into the environment at once (with us and China making up for the CO2 that the third world isn't dumping) has to have a detrimental effect on the environment. Add to that my extreme mistrust of the corporate world (does anyone remember the congressional hearings where the tobacco industry trotted out experts that said that nicotine isn't addictive? That cigarette smoke was no more dangerous than breathing city air?)...no, I can fudge the data enough myself to come up with any outcome I choose. The problem here is that if the "sky is falling" crowd is right, what do we do when there is no more run off to water the western United States, or water western Europe? We die...if the other side is right (and to be honest, the real answer is between the two) then we end up with a cleaner safer planet...I can do without a new SUV, can't you?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
221. weatherbro
11:48 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
I'm starting to wonder about the accuracy of the models...This front is not losing any steam and looks poised to come-through C. Florida.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1286
220. 789
11:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
FEMA and its federal partners are working closely with the CNMI Governor Benigno Fitial and Guam Governor Felix Perez Camacho as they make decisions for their potential response activities. Both FEMA's National Response Coordination Center (NRCC) in Washington, D.C. and the Region IX Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) in Oakland, California are fully activated, and are supporting deployed federal teams in American Samoa, Guam, and CNMI.

FEMA has pre-positioned equipment and critical supplies in CNMI and Guam to respond immediately to any needs, including:

More than 90,000 meals
90,000 liters of water
More than 2,500 cots
More than 3,800 blankets
85 generators
These resources are supplemented by more than 110,000 meals, more than 190,000 liters of water, and additional supplies already in Hawaii, which are also available to support the response in American Samoa.

Key federal personnel and other key federal responders have been deployed for rapid transport to Guam and CNMI. Two Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMAT) and a Mobile Emergency Response Support (MERS) specialist are staged in Guam. Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMAT) and teams from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are prepared for deployment to assist with response efforts. Federal responders are also on the ground in Saipan, the capital of CNMI.

Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
218. jurakantaino
11:37 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting viman:


That's the remnants of TD08, came through the VI today, right over ST. Croix...if I'm not mistaken...
im pretty sure you are right , notice the swirl east of Guadalupe 53W, 15N, is under 10nuts of shear the lowest in the atl.Link<>a href="http://cunss,ssec,wusc,edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg&shr.html" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" Link
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
217. hydrus
11:36 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


That's the test I'm proctoring; why, in the name of all that's holy, would a field adjuster need to know about stock dividends for an insurance company? That's why it's all lines though...they don't let you drop down to P&C only anymore
Probably because it helps him adjust the field when he is stocking dividends...J/K..Hello Floodman, thank you for your response to the E-Mail I sent. I am glad that somebody understood what I meant.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
216. 789
11:35 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting Floodman:
Howdy, 009. I've been meaning to ask you, 009...2 better than 007? Just asking, you know?
oo9 is what license ?
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
215. atmoaggie
11:35 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting Floodman:
@158

No one takes into account the population growth factor; the additional stresses on a water system that was a bit better than adequate at full capacity with 20% fewer people will certainly show signs of a deeper drought when stressed. The question is, given the higher population density against the same resources, should we consider this a deeper drought? Shoud we adjust the figures based on the increased usage? What is average, drought wise, and how were those numbers attained? Was population and stress on the system figured into the old numbers?

I think that is the point of that U Colombia study. According to the tree rings (slurp, gain of salt taken) there have been longer periods of less rainfall in the past than 2005 - 2007, so much so that the most recent drought period falls into the unremarkable category. But in those historical times of lacking rainfall there was not the present day demands on available water.

(I know you lean a different way, but I am not one to hold back my true opinions, so...)
There is so much we could work on if we applied the fervor of AGW to more obvious, proven, with a clear cause-effect relationship environmental issues that we could actually make amends for and have an effect. Alas, the environmental political capital is used up and the EPA is busy.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
214. eyesontheweather
11:28 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


That's the test I'm proctoring; why, in the name of all that's holy, would a field adjuster need to know about stock dividends for an insurance company? That's why it's all lines though...they don't let you drop down to P&C only anymore
And on top of it every 2 years all that usefull info has to be studied again, sort of...
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
213. Floodman
11:22 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Help... I fell of this chair laughing and can't get up.....


That's the test I'm proctoring; why, in the name of all that's holy, would a field adjuster need to know about stock dividends for an insurance company? That's why it's all lines though...they don't let you drop down to P&C only anymore
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
212. eyesontheweather
11:19 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Man...a test that simulates the battle of Midway? Sounds like the Texas All Lines
Help... I fell of this chair laughing and can't get up.....
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
211. JLPR
11:19 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
90L looks subtropical



Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
210. Floodman
11:15 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Howdy, 009. I've been meaning to ask you, 009...2 better than 007? Just asking, you know?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
208. Floodman
11:07 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


I would be worried about the wording of the third... "Midway" is that between the first and second test for hardness... or the Naval Battle?


Man...a test that simulates the battle of Midway? Sounds like the Texas All Lines
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
207. viman
11:06 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting CrazyDuke:
That blob over PR has a small swirl embedded in it. It was more apparent around noon today when it actually had a band with it.


That's the remnants of TD08, came through the VI today, right over ST. Croix...if I'm not mistaken...
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
205. JLPR
11:06 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
not much in the Atl


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
204. JLPR
11:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

Quoting Orcasystems:


I would be worried about the wording of the third... "Midway" is that between the first and second test for hardness... or the Naval Battle?


yeah but I guess that the third one after a semester taking the class shouldn't be as bad as the first one :)
but I guess its gonna be a little difficult considering that one has little something from all the past exams
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
203. TheDawnAwakening
11:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
My next creative idea is called the:

Northeast Coast Oscillation Storm Index

It will combine the NAO index, PNA index and the Gulf stream region of 60-80W longitude and 35-40N latitude region of the Atlantic Ocean and see if there is any correlation with the three in storm intensity during the winter season. I have had some feedback already and was wondering if anyone knows of any links for historical storm tracks for winter storms. This intensity scale is to measure the direct correlation between the Gulf Stream anomalies in this region mentioned above and winter snowfall for the Northeast Urban Corridor/coastline.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3816
202. Floodman
11:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting SQUAWK:
OK Flood, I gotta know. Have you been taking the WS/JFV spelling course?


Very funny, Squawk...I'm proctoring a test and every time I get started doing something in here I have to get up and check on something else...

By the way, if I was a graduate of of the WSJFV school of spelling I would have to intersperse some crap spanish in here too
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
201. Orcasystems
10:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009
Quoting JLPR:


first =P
good to know the second one is a joke XD


I would be worried about the wording of the third... "Midway" is that between the first and second test for hardness... or the Naval Battle?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
200. JLPR
Quoting CrazyDuke:
That blob over PR has a small swirl embedded in it. It was more apparent around noon today when it actually had a band with it.


that swirl is the remnants of TD8, it kept moving west all the way from the Eastern Atl
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
199. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


Hey I saw you NINO graphic for 2010 and if forecasts verify through next spring, the hurricane season of 2010 might be as active as 1998, one of the analog years you might here about come next year.


well that's not a very good outcome
XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
198. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


I am going to take a wiiiild guess..

UPR. AMO. First part of Accounting or the second one? =P. I am done with those classes. First test is hard, second is a joke, third is midway. =)


first =P
good to know the second one is a joke XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
That blob over PR has a small swirl embedded in it. It was more apparent around noon today when it actually had a band with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As far as Bordonaro's post goes, I can't really say. I can say what kind of mess the ACOE has made of the rivers here in the states; the floods here are worse than if the rivers had been left alone and the wetlands left in their original state to provide a buffer zone. I'm afraid if what sort of engineering it would take to harness the rainfall of say a Parma...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting TexNowNM:


Ewwwwwwww! 1998 was not a pretty year!

Good evening all, like many, I have a high school football game to go to tonight. I know someone will catch all of us up when we start filtering back in once the games are over.


At the speed of the blog today.. you might have to read back a page..at the most two :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Floodman, More mail
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
193. Relix
Quoting JLPR:
looking very interesting =P



im finally back after a accounting exam :|
didn't do so well, I think =S


I am going to take a wiiiild guess..

UPR. AMO. First part of Accounting or the second one? =P. I am done with those classes. First test is hard, second is a joke, third is midway. =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK Flood, I gotta know. Have you been taking the WS/JFV spelling course?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Hey I saw you NINO graphic for 2010 and if forecasts verify through next spring, the hurricane season of 2010 might be as active as 1998, one of the analog years you might here about come next year.


Ewwwwwwww! 1998 was not a pretty year!

Good evening all, like many, I have a high school football game to go to tonight. I know someone will catch all of us up when we start filtering back in once the games are over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Hey I saw you NINO graphic for 2010 and if forecasts verify through next spring, the hurricane season of 2010 might be as active as 1998, one of the analog years you might here about come next year.


I never really subscribed to the idea that seems rampant around here that if storm B follows the a similar path to storm A 2 years before then it will landfall in the same area as storm A; too many too many variables to deal with. Analog in appearance only; no two sdeaspons are ever exactly the same...

I will say this, with the heat potential out there with no release this season and a neutral ENSO for next year it could turn out to be a bad thing
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good day, Dr. Masters and fellow bloggers! Thanks for the update, hope all is well!

Typhoon Parma and the Philippines have an unfortunate meeting scheduled coming up this weekend. I hope the Philippine people have received adequate warning, that they have heeded the warnings and that people will be safe.

An "idealistic" thought to prevent the floods time after time after time. It would be great if the IMF and World Bank would assist the Philippines and other W Pacific nations to develop "flood control", ie; Dams and dregded , improved river basin controls to catch and re-release the waters out to the Pacific.

Ten of thousands of people would be put to work, untold thousands of lives would be saved, considering the W Pacific is "Typhoon Alley".

And billions of dollars would be saved throughout the years. My $ .02, for all it's worth!


Certainly worth 2 cents! An ounce of prevention......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Howdy, 456


Hey I saw you NINO graphic for 2010 and if forecasts verify through next spring, the hurricane season of 2010 might be as active as 1998, one of the analog years you might here about come next year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:
Look at the top of the screen; there should be an icon, the word "Mail". I'd imagine the one on your screen is red about now (I emailed you a few minutes ago). Click on it and it will take you to the mail page and I should be the one on top
Cool, Got it and replied
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all


Howdy, 456
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
The outerbands of Melor

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Watch it.. he does accidents also :)

lol Floodman :)


Ask my wife, Orca: I'm an accident looking ofr a place to occur...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Look at the top of the screen; there should be an icon, the word "Mail". I'd imagine the one on your screen is red about now (I emailed you a few minutes ago). Click on it and it will take you to the mail page and I should be the one on top
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Good evening all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Floodman, I would like to get some info to you outside of this blog and I do not know how to use the e-mail system on here.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633

Viewing: 231 - 181

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.