Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

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Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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Here Cane Kid:
Read this, Earthquakes last 7 days
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
wow... what if the TEC.plates are going under and over each other forming vast volcanoes mountains in the ocen, and California are They should name it the eathquake range...

It could be happening folks... or the possibility the earth is cracking up due to an upcoming global disaster, with hypercanes and such...
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At least they're making preparations Aussie.
I think they'll be okay since Parma is going to be down to a CAT 1 at landfall in the north.
The rain is one thing; the wind is something else. I'm glad it's not making landfall further south. The mountains should help to weaken it although the landslides are going to be wicked. They should know the lay of the land and where best to go, right?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
MAP 4.9 2009/10/03 01:10:25 36.386 -117.867 3.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/03 01:09:18 36.385 -117.864 0.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

a few moments ago.. well like a hr. or 2
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MAP 3.3 2009/10/03 02:27:06 36.383 -117.853 3.8 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.6 2009/10/03 02:19:56 36.656 -121.270 11.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.9 2009/10/03 02:01:07 38.325 -122.582 5.2 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2009/10/03 01:59:35 36.400 -117.874 6.4 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.0 2009/10/03 01:56:00 36.387 -117.847 4.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA



all these happened at least 25min ago in CAL.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I hope is 2 also. As we have seen around the SPAC there have been quakes in Samoa, Tonga and last night Fiji. when a plate lets go in 1 are we tend to see more quakes further along the plate boundaries.


That's the last thing we need in California. It took them several months to balance their State budget. They have a 13% unemployment rate, dry weather has caused several large fires, plus a severe drought.

The plate stresses are very high in S California, near Los Angeles and near San Francisco. Seismologists expect a high likelyhood of a 7.5Mw or greater in both areas within 30 yrs. The percent is close to 75%+.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting AussieStorm:
I hope is 2 also. As we have seen around the SPAC there have been quakes in Samoa, Tonga and last night Fiji. when a plate lets go in 1 are we tend to see more quakes further along the plate boundaries.


We are watching very closely here also... being on the opposite side of the plate, it has a tendency of acting like a spring.

BTW, our news reported that we had a (corrected)10cm rise due to the Tidal wave hitting this side.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
3.3 30sec. ago in CEntral Cal.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
someem coming



KoG, the last 20 or so are not shown on that. They happened after 9pm pacific time. Lets hope it is just reaction and not an indication of something else.

Edit. Correction on time. 9 our time on the east coast. LoL Duh

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Yeah, not only has been crazy in the Pacific with the recent west-pac tropical cyclones, we are also had that earthquake and tsunami thing.

Do you think these earthquake readings you guys are reporting from southern-cal are related to that earthquake that happened in the heart of the pacific earlier this week (is the "ring of fire" going through soem active burst)?
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Quoting Bordonaro:


I am really beginning to wonder if these swarms or quakes near Kessler, CA are number one, foreshocks of a major quake to come or number two, that alot of fault movement is gradually relieving the stress. I hope its the second scenario!
I hope is 2 also. As we have seen around the SPAC there have been quakes in Samoa, Tonga and last night Fiji. when a plate lets go in 1 are we tend to see more quakes further along the plate boundaries.
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MAP 2.6 2009/10/03 02:19:56 36.656 -121.270 11.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.9 2009/10/03 02:01:07 38.325 -122.582 5.2 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2009/10/03 01:59:35 36.400 -117.874 6.4 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.0 2009/10/03 01:56:00 36.387 -117.847 4.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
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Quoting Bordonaro:


I am really beginning to wonder if these swarms or quakes near Kessler, CA are number one, foreshocks of a major quake to come or number two, that alot of fault movement is gradually relieving the stress. I hope its the second scenario!
someem coming

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2-6 EQ in Northern California 2 mins ago...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I am extremely worried. I have family very close to where Parma is expected to make land fall. They have evacuated to my sister in-law's place in Central Luzon yet its been hard for them to travel due to the flooding from Ketsana last Saturday.


I really do hope everything turns out good for them.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
To AussieStorm:

Thanks for the clarification.

I have massive interest in the WPAC/ Philippines due to having family there , and I do agree with you that its been an insane ending to the WPAC season. I just hope all that energy doesn't move south of the EQ
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Quoting Chicklit:
thanks aussie storm. i'm very worried.

I am extremely worried. I have family very close to where Parma is expected to make land fall. They have evacuated to my sister in-law's place in Central Luzon yet its been hard for them to travel due to the flooding from Ketsana last Saturday.
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To AussieStorm:

Thanks for the clarification.
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260. xcool



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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Evening all,

This is my second time posting on this blog (first time was on Sept. 15). Guess nothing's changed in the Atlantic (still nothing named after Fred). On my blog, I noted some interesting comparisons of this year to other El Nino years (this Atlantic season could be over already).

Another thing: The west-pac has been insane! (intense typhoons Ketsana, Melor, and Parma back-to-back). My thoughts are to those in SE Asia.

Ketsana wasn't an intense Typhoon. It was barely a cat 1. Choi-wan Was a Cat 5 Super-Typhoon. Parma Max was Cat 4 and Typhoon Melor is not expected to reach Super Typhoon status. 150mph+ is Super Typhoon.
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wundermap parma
At least it's mainly on the north part of the island.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting Chicklit:


So is Cape Verde season over?

pretty much mostly ITCZ enhancement that slowly tracks further south from here on out window is closing wasn't much of a open window to begin with
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Quoting Ossqss:


Many more than that in the last hour or so.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php


I am really beginning to wonder if these swarms or quakes near Kessler, CA are number one, foreshocks of a major quake to come or number two, that alot of fault movement is gradually relieving the stress. I hope its the second scenario!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
255. xcool


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Let's hope it goes as far east as possible.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting Bordonaro:
Interesting 3 EARTHQUAKES, all reviewed by a seismologist in C CALIFORNIA


MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.9 2009/10/03 01:10:25 36.386 -117.867 3.6 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/03 01:09:18 36.385 -117.864 0.1 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA


3 seperate quakes in less than 7 minutes


Many more than that in the last hour or so.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
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Evening all,

This is my second time posting on this blog (first time was on Sept. 15). Guess nothing's changed in the Atlantic (still nothing named after Fred). On my blog, I noted some interesting comparisons of this year to other El Nino years (this Atlantic season could be over already).

Another thing: The west-pac has been insane! (intense typhoons Ketsana, Melor, and Parma back-to-back). My thoughts are to those in SE Asia.
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what it doo??????
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hey big fish thanks for the laugh

myself i would'nt open my eyes

maybe 3 parts in the bag might be good as well

lol
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Looks like Parma has gone down to 114 mph winds but Phillipines still in for a rough ride.


Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
AMEN!!!APOCALYPTIC-induced misanthropic environmental nervousness.
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245. xcool



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Link
look at the shear if that low or any tropical entity in to low shear in the carib. we could see the blog come alive
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Quoting Floodman:


I'm not all the way either way; I lean towards the CC end of things based on the idea that you can only dump so much into a closed system before you effect that system. 6 billion of us, all dumping into the environment at once (with us and China making up for the CO2 that the third world isn't dumping) has to have a detrimental effect on the environment. Add to that my extreme mistrust of the corporate world (does anyone remember the congressional hearings where the tobacco industry trotted out experts that said that nicotine isn't addictive? That cigarette smoke was no more dangerous than breathing city air?)...no, I can fudge the data enough myself to come up with any outcome I choose. The problem here is that if the "sky is falling" crowd is right, what do we do when there is no more run off to water the western United States, or water western Europe? We die...if the other side is right (and to be honest, the real answer is between the two) then we end up with a cleaner safer planet...I can do without a new SUV, can't you?

Yeah, but my point there is that there is so much more we could do besides legislate CO2 emissions to those that can afford the extra cost. Really, I see no effect in the CO2 boondoggle in the way of actual environmental improvements. Other things we could be doing right now would directly affect us now and in the future.

"has to have a detrimental effect on the environment"
While there have been a lot of guesses, no one actually knows that.

I too have that extreme mistrust of the corporate world, and politicians, and those that decide public funding of science (read:politicians), and those that stand to gain, and whomever is motivated to learn or teach anything at all in the fear factory media "specials". But there is no denying that if you want something done or created efficiently, the motivation of lost profits or business to a competitor creates a drive like none other.

(BTW, I cannot stand SUVs. If you actually need a Ford Inexcusable or Slurpurban, maybe you should consider a small bus instead...that or as little travel with your whole brood as possible. And if you don't actually need one of those, then WTH are you thinking?)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
I hope this is another cold front.


Loop
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Interesting 3 EARTHQUAKES, all reviewed by a seismologist in C CALIFORNIA


MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.9 2009/10/03 01:10:25 36.386 -117.867 3.6 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/03 01:09:18 36.385 -117.864 0.1 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA


3 seperate quakes in less than 7 minutes
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785


So is Cape Verde season over?

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Here is a picture I just took of TS Olaf generating some clouds over my house in southern California. It's a rare occurrence for a TS to have any impact here. Not that clouds are much of an impact. I just thought it was cool and thought I would share. I also added a visible satellite shot showing the clouds streaming over SoCal.



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Quoting Floodman:


You know, 007, James Bond?

Hi guys what up you know that is my nickname
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Quoting Portlight:
The live video stream from the Baxters' tomorrow be viewed at the Portlight WU blog...
beginning about 6 A est
Link


Cool. I hope I can wake up in time to watch it live!
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EP, 18, 2009100300, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1168W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 75, 1008, 295, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, M,

Olaf maintains its intensity
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The live video stream from the Baxters' tomorrow be viewed at the Portlight WU blog...
beginning about 6 A est
Link
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I just want to encourage everybody to consider donating something to the International Red Cross for Philippines relief. If you haven't been through something like that, you can't imagine how bad it is, and how greatly needed and appreciated those supplies are.
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Quoting Floodman:


You know, 007, James Bond?


Rough crowd tonight Floodman...
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232. 789
Quoting Floodman:


You know, 007, James Bond?
license to kill 009 license to stop hurricanes
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Quoting stormpetrol:
You have to watch those fronts that trail down in GOM or NW Caribbean this time of year, sometimes they take quite a few days to spawn anything.
Like Paloma.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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