Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

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Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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331. xcool
tacoman i just got my blood pressure checked ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting btwntx08:
i see that troll sykkid is back please ingore he's just asking for trouble again


Once I saw him, I did without hesitation.
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328. xcool
tacoman poof
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
327. xcool
hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting SykKid:
I was right. Hurricane season is over.


If past El Nino's are any indication, you are correct. Even during 2004, October was very quiet, and that year had a Modiki El Nino.
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Last update for the night... they should both be making landfall of sorts soon...

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Special Notice

Check out the comedy section if your looking for a chuckle during the slow times.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
The western Pacific sure is going wild.

I have a friend in Manila. He usually repsonds right away and tells me they're fine, but this time I haven't had a peep from him. Hope all is well.
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320. JRRP
Quoting SykKid:
I was right. Hurricane season is over.

yes is true


have a nice day...
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Bloggers in California, has Cal-Tech or any of the other Seismology specialist in California mentioned anything about the Kessler, CA earthquake swarm going on?

There has been over 200 total earthquakes in Kessler, CA in 2 days, not normal!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
318. xcool
SykKid haha lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting melwerle:
305. We just moved in a few months ago - we don't know a good majority of what neighbors are left here right now. Last night though trying to get the dogs out from under tables was stupid...we've had little tremors that we can't feel all around us but nothing in our immediate area that have felt. We have company in from Savannah right now too - I just gave him the speech about sleeping with clothes on etc and if something starts shaking to either get under a table or get out in the backyard. No wires, no poles etc out there. Can't take too much precaution in at least warning. I think the whole "get in a doorway" is crap now..."get under something sturdy" is the new way of thinking. I have to go buy Earthquakes for Dummies now.


Save your money, Google, "Earthquake safety precautions". Print a few copies and MAKE SURE EVERYONE KNOWS what to do, just in case!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link

FYI. Above link from the USGS, showing all the recent quakes measured since the first 5 MW Keesler, CA quake. notice, how MANY aftershocks have taken place.
this is a good site also
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
314. xcool
SykKid oh nooo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Canekid98:
MAP 3.3 2009/10/03 02:27:06 36.383 -117.853 3.8 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.6 2009/10/03 02:19:56 36.656 -121.270 11.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.9 2009/10/03 02:01:07 38.325 -122.582 5.2 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2009/10/03 01:59:35 36.400 -117.874 6.4 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.0 2009/10/03 01:56:00 36.387 -117.847 4.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA



all these happened at least 25min ago in CAL.
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/last30.html
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309 - Orca - hubby plays Admiral Baker almost every weekend. There is also a nice course right on the ocean on Coronado...

LOVE being home. It's the bomb! The sailing here is pretty good too although the water is freezing. did a race to the coronado islands last weekend and it was really nice - weather was PERFECT and no bugs.

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Quoting TampaSpin:
On my Website i have links to most everything one needs to monitor Earthquakes. It updates everytime you refresh.
i love your website, it is very informative.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
Quoting melwerle:
Trolly area is miserable!!! Two golf course within a few miles of our house - Eastlake and Saltwater. I love the mountain views from both...

things here got pretty miserable with the housing stuff and a good majority of the houses here are in foreclosure (our street alone has 8 that I've counted with the "do not trespass signs...that doesn't include the ones that are vacant with no signs up yet). It was a nice area but almost like a ghost town right now. We were VERY fortunate to get a short sale and be able to come home. If you make it back this way - let me know - we'll take you out golfing. Torrey Pines is not that far and since we're residents...

Supposed to get VERY cool here - Monday high of 64. Time to break out the long sleeves. Loving it really - can spend all my time outside now instead of being in Savannah - where I locked myself in the house until the heat broke (from May till October).


I have played Torry Pines about 5 times.. I love it :) Its easily one of the top 3 courses I have ever played.

I also like Balboa Park, Admiral Baker, (both courses), and Sea & Air course :)

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
anyone still up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
305. We just moved in a few months ago - we don't know a good majority of what neighbors are left here right now. Last night though trying to get the dogs out from under tables was stupid...we've had little tremors that we can't feel all around us but nothing in our immediate area that have felt. We have company in from Savannah right now too - I just gave him the speech about sleeping with clothes on etc and if something starts shaking to either get under a table or get out in the backyard. No wires, no poles etc out there. Can't take too much precaution in at least warning. I think the whole "get in a doorway" is crap now..."get under something sturdy" is the new way of thinking. I have to go buy Earthquakes for Dummies now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Trolly area is miserable!!! Two golf course within a few miles of our house - Eastlake and Saltwater. I love the mountain views from both...

things here got pretty miserable with the housing stuff and a good majority of the houses here are in foreclosure (our street alone has 8 that I've counted with the "do not trespass signs...that doesn't include the ones that are vacant with no signs up yet). It was a nice area but almost like a ghost town right now. We were VERY fortunate to get a short sale and be able to come home. If you make it back this way - let me know - we'll take you out golfing. Torrey Pines is not that far and since we're residents...

Supposed to get VERY cool here - Monday high of 64. Time to break out the long sleeves. Loving it really - can spend all my time outside now instead of being in Savannah - where I locked myself in the house until the heat broke (from May till October).
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Quoting melwerle:
Hi Orca - living almost 9 miles from the border in Chula Vista (Eastlake 91915). There's been a bunch of little quakes all over but none that I have felt - and I can hear them coming when they are around 4 or so. Little tremors from what I understand are better than having it totally quiet. Something about releasing pressure often. Could be all nonsense...been watching hurricanes on the east coast up until two months ago so I have to brush up again on my earthquake stuff.


Out of curiousity, do any of your friends, neighbors or relatives have pets? If so, have they mentioned their pets exhibiting weird behavior?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting melwerle:
Hi Orca - living almost 9 miles from the border in Chula Vista (Eastlake 91915). There's been a bunch of little quakes all over but none that I have felt - and I can hear them coming when they are around 4 or so. Little tremors from what I understand are better than having it totally quiet. Something about releasing pressure often. Could be all nonsense...been watching hurricanes on the east coast up until two months ago so I have to brush up again on my earthquake stuff.


I have golfed in your neck of the woods before :) Very nice area...

ROFL, a lot nicer then Chula Vista (bay area), which I normally go thru very fast on the Trolly to TJ
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
303. xcool









Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Chicklit:
At least they're making preparations Aussie.
I think they'll be okay since Parma is going to be down to a CAT 1 at landfall in the north.
The rain is one thing; the wind is something else. I'm glad it's not making landfall further south. The mountains should help to weaken it although the landslides are going to be wicked. They should know the lay of the land and where best to go, right?
if it slows down like they are predicted, they could get 20 inches and they dont need that.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
Hi Orca - living almost 9 miles from the border in Chula Vista (Eastlake 91915). There's been a bunch of little quakes all over but none that I have felt - and I can hear them coming when they are around 4 or so. Little tremors from what I understand are better than having it totally quiet. Something about releasing pressure often. Could be all nonsense...been watching hurricanes on the east coast up until two months ago so I have to brush up again on my earthquake stuff.
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Quoting melwerle:


I'm living in San Diego now...I asked the same thing the other night...we have had dogs hiding for two days now. They are all healthy but acting VERY wierd lately.


Where abouts in SD, approx?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Bordonaro:


I am really beginning to wonder if these swarms or quakes near Kessler, CA are number one, foreshocks of a major quake to come or number two, that alot of fault movement is gradually relieving the stress. I hope its the second scenario!


I'm living in San Diego now...I asked the same thing the other night...we have had dogs hiding for two days now. They are all healthy but acting VERY wierd lately. I will say though - I'll take the little tremors over the big ones any day. 1.5 you don't really even feel if you're at all busy doing anything. You might mistake it for your wash machine being on spin cycle in the same floor of where you are. It's that mild.
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Current Conditions Manila wu-page

Manila, PH (Airport)

Updated: 27 min 15 sec ago
Light Rain
82 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 82 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 29.65 in (Falling)

WunderMap®
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125752
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link

FYI. Above link from the USGS, showing all the recent quakes measured since the first 5 MW Keesler, CA quake. notice, how MANY aftershocks have taken place.


Here is another good link with a graphical interface

Link
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been all over California, and SD & SF extensively (second and third Canadian Westcoast Naval Ports). I live on Vancouver Island which is on the same Fault line.

They have evidence on the West Coast of Vancouver Island of Tidal waves over 400' going up some of the Inlets, due to sea slides along the ridge.



I feel for you, living on the San Andreas. I am living in Nashville, TN, oh, about 160MI away from the dreaded mid-continent fault, the New Madrid, that caused 7.7-8.2MW earthquakes felt in Boston, MA in 1811-12. And its due to go off again soon!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Link

FYI. Above link from the USGS, showing all the recent quakes measured since the first 5 MW Keesler, CA quake. notice, how MANY aftershocks have taken place.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


Been to California in 1984. Drove up and down the Nimitz Expressway that pancaked in 1989. Remember telling my late wife Sue, "Look at all the hairline fractures on those support beams, next major quake, it's coming down", and it did!

Driving through Palmdale, CA, there is a feature called the "Palmdale Bulge", a part of the Sierra Nevada MT range that the San Andreas fault line runs through, then you look off to your right and you can see the San Andreas fault as far as the eye can see.

There are so many thrust faults (they move up/down) because of the stress on the San Andreas, which is a slip/slide fault. The 6.9 MW Northridge quake was caused by a thrust fault that the seismologists DID NOT even know existed, until the quake!!

But, California is a very beautiful state, though. At the N end of California, San Francisco, there are 7 MAJOR fault lines that run through their metro area.



I have been all over California, and SD & SF extensively (second and third Canadian Westcoast Naval Ports). I live on Vancouver Island which is on the same Fault line.

They have evidence on the West Coast of Vancouver Island of Tidal waves over 400' going up some of the Inlets, due to sea slides along the ridge.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Bryant193wx:
Thanks For The Update Dr. Masters.
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com


ROFL, I just looked.. you have everything except Southern North Carolina.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Orcasystems:
282. Bordonaro 2:47 AM GMT on October 03, 2009 Hide this comment.
Compliments of USGS, notice all the CAL quakes over 3.0 Mw


Mental note to self... don't move to S of Keeler, CA


Been to California in 1984. Drove up and down the Nimitz Expressway that pancaked in 1989. Remember telling my late wife Sue, "Look at all the hairline fractures on those support beams, next major quake, it's coming down", and it did!

Driving through Palmdale, CA, there is a feature called the "Palmdale Bulge", a part of the Sierra Nevada MT range that the San Andreas fault line runs through, then you look off to your right and you can see the San Andreas fault as far as the eye can see.

There are so many thrust faults (they move up/down) because of the stress on the San Andreas, which is a slip/slide fault. The 6.9 MW Northridge quake was caused by a thrust fault that the seismologists DID NOT even know existed, until the quake!!

But, California is a very beautiful state, though. At the N end of California, San Francisco, there are 7 MAJOR fault lines that run through their metro area.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Thanks For The Update Dr. Masters.
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
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282. Bordonaro 2:47 AM GMT on October 03, 2009 Hide this comment.
Compliments of USGS, notice all the CAL quakes over 3.0 Mw


Mental note to self... don't move S of Keeler, CA
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
me 2 guys V out
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285. xcool
LONE PINE, Calif. — A 3-day-old earthquake sequence in a remote area of eastern California has thundered back to life with temblors ranging up to a preliminary estimate of magnitude-5.2.

The quakes occurred Friday evening 17 miles southeast of the town of Lone Pine in the arid Owens Valley below the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, about 180 miles north of Los Angeles.

The automated seismic network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and other institutions reports the 5.2 quake was preceded by a 4.7 and a 4.9 between 6:09 p.m. and 6:15 p.m.

Inyo County sheriff's dispatcher Carol Drew says no damage or injuries have been reported, but the department has received several calls about the quakes.

A magnitude-5 earthquake occurred in the same area early Wednesday and has been followed by dozens of aftershocks each day.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Canekid98:
that is where i get my sources from "chicklet"

good boy.

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 01:15:59 UTC
Friday, October 02, 2009 at 06:15:59 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.393%uFFFDN, 117.877%uFFFDW
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances 11 km (7 miles) S (182%uFFFD) from Keeler, CA
16 km (10 miles) ENE (59%uFFFD) from Cartago, CA
18 km (11 miles) NE (37%uFFFD) from Olancha, CA
28 km (17 miles) SE (141%uFFFD) from Lone Pine, CA
239 km (148 miles) W (276%uFFFD) from Las Vegas, NV

Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 0.6 km (0.4 miles); depth /- 2.2 km (1.4 miles)
Parameters Nph=030, Dmin=19 km, Rmss=0.28 sec, Gp= 79%uFFFD,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=C
Source California Integrated Seismic Net:
USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
Event ID ci14519780
goodnight!
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that is where i get my sources from "chicklet"
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Compliments of USGS, notice all the CAL quakes over 3.0 Mw:

Update time = Sat Oct 3 2:35:00 UTC 2009


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km LOCATION
MAP 3.3 2009/10/03 02:27:06 36.383 -117.853 3.8 12 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 3.0 2009/10/03 01:56:00 36.387 -117.847 4.1 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.2 2009/10/03 01:47:54 36.395 -117.855 0.2 10 km ( 6 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 3.4 2009/10/03 01:39:15 18.209 -68.462 110.4 53 km ( 33 mi) SSE of Higüey, Dominican Republic
MAP 3.3 2009/10/03 01:38:08 36.409 -117.862 5.7 9 km ( 5 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 3.4 2009/10/03 01:33:35 36.404 -117.849 2.3 10 km ( 6 mi) SSE of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.0 2009/10/03 01:31:43 36.397 -117.858 0.0 10 km ( 6 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.1 2009/10/03 01:30:31 36.405 -117.863 3.5 9 km ( 6 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.9 2009/10/03 01:10:25 36.386 -117.867 3.6 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/03 01:09:18 36.385 -117.864 0.1 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 3.1 2009/10/03 00:32:04 36.386 -117.868 0.9 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Here Cane Kid:
Read this, Earthquakes last 7 days
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.