Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

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Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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Parma not really visible from Taiwan's radar. Anyone seeing a better radar? I cannot seem to find one for the Philippines.

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Tonight Carson Valley (10 miles SE of Lake Tahoe)NOAA forecast:

Windy. Areas of blowing dust in the evening. Slight chance of rain and snow in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow level 5500 feet lowering to the valley floor (4900 feet). Snow accumulation up to 1 inch above 5000 feet. Lows 28 to 38. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
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Cleveland has a Volcano?
(edited)Forget it, I found it.. I thought you meant the city.

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
MJO moved in towards 0, which could be the end of new TC developments for the WestPac. Now if it would stay close to zero, rather than a spike, we might not get our own TC developments in the Atlantic or anywhere else.

No guarantee the GFS has it right, of course. The ensemble solution has verified better this season and would be less conducive for our own developments.
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Sorry, in some way this was the wrong volcano. New is the activity of Cleveland (no webicorders available).

Report
Satellite data indicate that Cleveland volcano erupted briefly this morning at ~0730 UTC (2330 AKDT) 02 October 2009, producing an ash cloud to maximum altitudes of 15,000' to 20,000' (4.5 - 6.1 km). Thus, the aviation color code is being increased to Orange, and the volcano alert level is being increased to Watch. Further eruptive activity is possible.

The lack of a real-time seismic network at Cleveland means that AVO is unable to track local earthquake activity related to volcanic unrest. Short-lived explosions with ash plumes that could exceed 20,000 ft above sea level can occur without warning and may go undetected on satellite imagery.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6241
Good morning to all. Shishaldin/Alaska is blowing.



(edit) look further to post 397
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6241
Quoting Chicklit:
There has been a series of minor to moderate earthquakes in the California/Nevada border over the past 15 hours or so. Might this be signalizing that there is a big one to come, i honestly don't know.


03-OCT-2009 11:37:10
36.39 -117.87 4.5 1.2 CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER REGION


03-OCT-2009 05:31:57
36.40 -117.87 4.7 1.6 CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER REGION

03-OCT-2009 01:15:59 36.39 -117.88 5.2 0.0 CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER REGION

03-OCT-2009 01:09:18 36.39 -117.86 4.7 0.1 CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER REGION
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From 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. REMAINING MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W.
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Question for anyone. What is the difference between the QuickScat ascending and descending information besides the time change? Another sad month for the far western Pacific.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
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good morning guys what new talk to me
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good morning expect the atlantic to pick up this next week its turn.
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369. P451


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368. P451
Closed for business!

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367. P451
Quoting Weather456:


QS showed the strongest winds near the center and an increase in deep convection near the center all defines a STS.


I absolutely agree. This is Grace. Are they not naming it because of where it is and it's SSTs? If that is the reason they need to change their rules.

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366. P451
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

What is wrong with the NHC?

Not even a mentioned of 90L and there is mounting evidence this was a subtropical storm?

90L's warm core at 200 mb



I don't understand it either. They have been terrible this year on a number of systems - or according to them - non-systems.

I just don't get it.

Even simple things like putting a yellow circle around the sheared convection free mess just east of the Islands but not even talking about the stronger region east of that.

They've been terrible. I know everyone sung their praises on Bill but other than that everything else has really been a mess. From dropping the ball on 92 and 90 (I'd say one, and I forget which one, was absolutely to be named - the May one?) to Erika and Danny (claiming 50 and 60mph systems because of a few rain contaminated regions far removed from the center supporting such numbers) to this now.

Again, whoever is in charge this past year - of being the final word on everyone's work over there - needs to be canned.



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Quoting P451:
Good Morning. I see 90L, which really should be STS Grace, has made a come back. If anyone remembers the satellite image I posted yesterday it looked like a hurricane (I know it was not, but, it was at least a strong STS).

YESTERDAY:




TODAY:



QS showed the strongest winds near the center and an increase in deep convection near the center all defines a STS.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
364. P451
Good Morning. I see 90L, which really should be STS Grace, has made a come back. If anyone remembers the satellite image I posted yesterday it looked like a hurricane (I know it was not, but, it was at least a strong STS).

YESTERDAY:




TODAY:

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Good Morning

What is wrong with the NHC?

Not even a mentioned of 90L and there is mounting evidence this was a subtropical storm?

90L's warm core at 200 mb

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I see pepinga made landfall. May g_d help those in its path as it looks quite impressive.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10567
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" has made landfall over the Eastern Coast of Cagayan and is now traversing Extreme Northern Luzon

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 17.9ºN 121.9ºE or 40 kms northeast of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (95 kts) with gusts up to 210 km/h (110 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Batanes group of Island
2.Cagayan
3.Babuyan and Calayan Island
4.Ilocos Norte
5.Ilocos Sur
6.Mountain Province
7.Abra
8.Apayao
9.Kalinga
10.Northern Isabela

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Rest of Isabela
2.Ifugao
3.Nueva Vizcaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.Quirino
2.Aurora
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Pangasinan

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.



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Good saturday morning WU...prayers up for the Phillipines.
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359. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TYPHOON PARMA (T0917)
18:00 PM JST October 3 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon Overland Luzon (Philippines)

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Parma (960 hPa) located at 18.1N 121.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
200 NM from the center in west quadrant
160 NM from the center in east quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 19.4N 121.1E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 20.1N 120.9E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 20.7N 120.9E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
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358. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" has made landfall over the Eastern Coast of Cagayan and is now traversing Extreme Northern Luzon

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 17.9ºN 121.9ºE or 40 kms northeast of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (95 kts) with gusts up to 210 km/h (110 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Batanes group of Island
2.Cagayan
3.Babuyan and Calayan Island
4.Ilocos Norte
5.Ilocos Sur
6.Mountain Province
7.Abra
8.Apayao
9.Kalinga
10.Northern Isabela

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Rest of Isabela
2.Ifugao
3.Nueva Vizcaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.Quirino
2.Aurora
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Pangasinan

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
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Quoting JLPR:


impressive


And today as well............



Our attention above it:
Link
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Quoting xcool:







With all due respect iceman, that shear map isn't particularly accurate. Even during the winter months, it almost always has favorable shear.
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Good night everyone. Be blessed sleep well & pray for the nation of the Phillipines, JTWC expects landfall at 0900UTC or 4AM CDT today!
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2.9 3 minutes ago....and i'm out too bye xcool
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
352. xcool
im out bye
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
351. xcool
btwntx08 .yeah way to higher.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
the quakes just keep pulsing up and down between 1.6-3.0 or a bit higher
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
349. xcool
WHAT REALLY Go-on"
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3.0 now
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2.0 3 minutes ago
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346. xcool





Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1.9 occured at 11:02 pm pst
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting btwntx08:
finally a brief break non in the last 10 min

Check again, they recently had a 4.7MW!!
Oops, my bad you're right!!
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343. xcool
btwntx08 / Not Good For california
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
finally a brief break non in the last 10 min
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
341. xcool
oh wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
there goes another 2.1 now
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339. xcool
10-02) 21:37 PDT KEELER, CALIF. -- A series of small earthquakes clustered around Owens Valley on the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada concerned some residents, but did not cause injuries or damage.


About 20 relatively minor quakes struck the region Friday evening and Thursday, said Susan Hough, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. The quakes ranged from 3.0 to 5.2 at 6:15 p.m. Friday.

"It's fortunate this is a pretty remote area. If this were happening in San Francisco or L.A., a lot of people would be getting stressed," she said.

The earthquakes were centered in the virtual ghost town of Keeler, about 15 miles south of Lone Pine in Inyo County, which is just over 200 miles northeast of Los Angeles on Highway 395.

Hough said larger quakes were possible but not likely. "There is the potential for big quakes in that area, but there are a lot of little faults," she said.

The first earthquake was a magnitude 5 at 3:01 a.m. Thursday, which was followed by a number of smaller shakes. Friday's most active series of quakes started at 5:32 p.m. with a 3.1 that was followed at 6:09 p.m. by a 4.7 tremor. A minute later, a 4.9 hit before the 5.2 quake. A 3.1 aftershock was record at 8:11 p.m.

Inyo County sheriff's dispatcher Carol Drew said several residents called about the earthquakes, but no problems were reported.

On March 26, 1872, a large earthquake hit Lone Pine, destroyed most of the town and killed 26 of its residents.




Link
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1.7 again and right over the place again
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337. xcool
btwntx08.oh yeah opp
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
xcool keeler,ca i think everyone was talking a bit earlier in here
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
wow another one 2.9 5 min ago damn this is too active there
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334. xcool
btwntx08 where at ???
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
another 4.7 quake jsut occured about 5 min ago and 12 little quakes in the 10 min hmmmm
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332. xcool
Link


new model anyone !
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331. xcool
tacoman i just got my blood pressure checked ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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