Typhoon Ketsana hits Vietnam; death toll in Philippines swells to 246

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on September 29, 2009

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Typhoon Ketsana slammed into Vietnam this morning as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds. Ketsana brought sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 71 mph to Da Nang Vietnam. Heavy rainfall amounts of 7.2" and 9.1" were observed at Da Nang, and Hue, respectively, over the past two days. Floods and landslides in Vietnam from Ketsana's heavy rains have already claimed at least 22 lives.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in Manila's Park 9 Alley, where the Barangay Hall of Loyola Heights is located. Image credit: Manuel Quezon III.

The death toll in the Philippines from Ketsana continues to rise, with 284 dead or missing. The storm flooded the homes of 1.9 million people, leaving 350,000 people homeless. Ketsana brought 16.7 inches of rain in a twelve-hour period to Manila on Saturday, which was the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city. Ketsana is the third deadliest deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the globe so far this year. The deadliest was Typhoon Morakot, which left 654 people dead or missing on Taiwan, when it hit the island as a Category 2 typhoon on August 7. The second deadliest was Cyclone Aila, which made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border on May 25 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Aila killed at least 339 people, 149 in India and 190 in Bangladesh.

The Philippines have three more tropical cyclones to their east to keep an eye on. So far, none of these storms appear to pose a major threat. Tropical Storm Parma is expected to curve to the northwest and miss the islands, Tropical Depression 18 is expected to dissipate, and newly-formed Tropical Depression 20 will probably pass to the north of the islands.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How to help Ketsana victims
Help the UN World Food Programme by making a donation. This program identifies families in specific need of aid. Just $18 provides a family with rice for two weeks. This is the most critical and immediate way you can make an impact.

Donate to the International Red Cross and help them continue to put relief workers on the ground in the Philippines.

Donate via Catholic Relief Services online of the Philippines or call 1-877-HELP-CRS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to affect land.

Jeff Masters

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575. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0000z 30SEPT)
==========================================

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 13.0N 146.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots

---
TC 18W
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574. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The CMC does funny things to Ketsana (Ondoy)
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Storm W thanks for your analysis, I been watching this area for the last couple of days and the 850vortex has been increasing steady over the last 24hrs that antyciclonic ahead of this disturbance will gave this area the chance to reach at least an invest status in 12-24 hrs. IMO

850 5 days loop:

Link

Evening everyone.
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572. xcool



here in slidell .

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Ketsana might survive the trip overland and redevelop in the BOB.
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569. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
PAGASA will soon put up cyclone watches for Parma as well
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Quoting weatherbro:


...Actually isn't the Quiantain River in northeast China reported to have the tallest Tidal Bore's?


I read the '26 Great Miami Hurricane created a tidal bore up the Miami River. Is that possible?
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Parma seems to be rapidly intensifying. Not good...

And the JMA and JTWC are going to get their hands full.
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564. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Ameister12,

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST September 29 2009
=================================

The well marked low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood persists.
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561. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


indeed Taz
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In case you missed this interesting link on unusual clouds.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Shhhhh...Hydrus might get lucky and have a perfect score (at bowling...what were you thinking...)
Thank you...
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Quoting Weather456:


i think thats the remnants of Fred


LOL! Fred That one was a good one 456.
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this says we now have Typhoon PARMA


Link
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Quoting hurristat:


I think they mean Parma, Ohio, there. LOL


Shhhhh...Hydrus might get lucky and have a perfect score (at bowling...what were you thinking...)
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555. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Overland Laos

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Ketsana (994 hPa) located at 15.5N 106.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as almost stationary

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: "Overland"

Gale-Force Winds
===============
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
300 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.8N 105.2E - Tropical Depression

System #2
------------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 29SEPT)
==========================================

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.0N 147.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
===============================================
Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (18W)

System #3
-----------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Caroline Islands

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Parma (990 hPa) located at 9.1N 136.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 12 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 11.8N 133.3E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 14.5N 130.4E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.1N 127.7E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Is Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (19W)

System #4
----------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near Marshalls Island

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Melor (996 hPa) located at 11.5N 156.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 12.4N 154.3E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 13.2N 153.0E - 65 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 14.3N 150.8E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Is Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (20W)
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Quoting mikatnight:


"Moon over Parma, bring my love to me tonight.

Guide her to Cleveland, underneath your silvery light.

We’re going bowlin’ so don’t loose her in Solon. Moon over Parma, tonight!"



I think they mean Parma, Ohio, there. LOL
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Ketsana is dead, but not gone. Its remnants are still causing a lot of rain through out south Asia.
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Quoting mikatnight:


"Moon over Parma, bring my love to me tonight.

Guide her to Cleveland, underneath your silvery light.

We%u2019re going bowlin%u2019 so don%u2019t loose her in Solon. Moon over Parma, tonight!"

That was so moving, My girl read it and immediately poured wine and punched on the stereo....
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NEW BLOG POST:
South Florida StormWatch
(Main Site)
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Parma's eye is getting bigger.
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548. JRRP
Quoting hydrus:
Equatorial Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Google it.

thanks
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5337
Quoting hurristat:
I've been to Parma, Italy. It is the region where Parmesan cheese originates. I always found the name "Parma" to be slightly amusing because I always associate it with the city.


"Moon over Parma, bring my love to me tonight.

Guide her to Cleveland, underneath your silvery light.

We’re going bowlin’ so don’t loose her in Solon. Moon over Parma, tonight!"

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Quoting JRRP:
what is QBO?
Equatorial Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Google it.
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Good night all.
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Quoting Weather456:
Does not look good for Guam

And it might look even worse if that storm intensifies rapidly...
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543. JRRP
what is QBO?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5337
Quoting Weather456:
I've read that the 2004 tsunami was so large it jolted the entire globe and altered rotation. This is only 1 of the 3 features that are known to affect the earth's internal angular moment - the other 2 being El Nino and the MJO.


Was it maybe the earthquake? I can't see a wave being able to alter the rotation of the earth, but I can see an earthquake maybe doing it.
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Elsewhere is the tropics...

92P


90B

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I've been to Parma, Italy. It is the region where Parmesan cheese originates. I always found the name "Parma" to be slightly amusing because I always associate it with the city.
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Quoting Weather456:


i think thats the remnants of Fred


Fred is long gone... It was over by Florida a week ago...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Elementary, my dear Watson... LOL

Grades 1 - 6.
'

YES.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Elementary, my dear Watson... LOL

Grades 1 - 6.
Thank you for the answer.
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That's a storm train in the WPac if I ever saw one.
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Quoting Magicchaos:
Looks like Saipan could be in for a direct hit.
Twas thinking the same thing....Second storm of the season for that area. I'm thinking yet another effect of El Nino....
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Yeah with directions like these to get to this obs site, I don't think it is representative of open ocean deep water.

"To reach the tidal bench marks, from Pago Pago Airport proceed 0.3 km (0.2 mi) from the parking lot and turn right onto the Airport Road (look for the U.S. Army Reserve Building at intersection) and proceed 2.1 km (1.3 mi) on Airport Road to the T intersection where the Airport and Main Roads intersect, turn right onto the Main Road and proceed 10.6 km (6.6 mi), take a right at the first intersection past the Fagatogo Shopping complex which will be on your right. Proceed one block and take a left onto the waterfront street, then proceed west for 1/2 block and on your right will be the two storied, constructed of gray stone with a cinder block wall, Department of Marine & Wildlife Resource (DMWR) building, located across the street and north of the public outdoor market and bus stop. The bench marks were located in the vicinity all along the harbor.
The Tide Gauge is located in a storage closet (with outside entrance) in the NE corner of the DMWR buillding on the first level. "

From: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=1770000%20Pago%20Pago,%20%20&type=Bench%20Mark %20Data%20Sheets
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Did you get the QBO information I sent you?


Just checked it...thanks.

Question: this was proposed by someone - along with El Nino et al, could the easterly phase of the QBO also a contributor to the inactive season?
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Quoting Weather456:
I've read that the 2004 tsunami was so large it jolted the entire globe and altered rotation. This is only 1 of the 3 features that are known to affect the earth's internal angular moment - the other 2 being El Nino and the MJO.


I've always for some reason suspected that the 2004 earthquake because it altered its rotation just slightly, contributed to the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season significantly. I really have nothing to back that up but it would make sense.
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poor Guam
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Quoting Weather456:


could it be the beginnings of the Rapture.


LOL - it isn't 2012 yet - silly.

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Quoting hydrus:
What is primary school?
Elementary, my dear Watson... LOL

Grades 1 - 6.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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