Typhoon Ketsana hits Vietnam; death toll in Philippines swells to 246

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on September 29, 2009

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Typhoon Ketsana slammed into Vietnam this morning as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds. Ketsana brought sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 71 mph to Da Nang Vietnam. Heavy rainfall amounts of 7.2" and 9.1" were observed at Da Nang, and Hue, respectively, over the past two days. Floods and landslides in Vietnam from Ketsana's heavy rains have already claimed at least 22 lives.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in Manila's Park 9 Alley, where the Barangay Hall of Loyola Heights is located. Image credit: Manuel Quezon III.

The death toll in the Philippines from Ketsana continues to rise, with 284 dead or missing. The storm flooded the homes of 1.9 million people, leaving 350,000 people homeless. Ketsana brought 16.7 inches of rain in a twelve-hour period to Manila on Saturday, which was the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city. Ketsana is the third deadliest deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the globe so far this year. The deadliest was Typhoon Morakot, which left 654 people dead or missing on Taiwan, when it hit the island as a Category 2 typhoon on August 7. The second deadliest was Cyclone Aila, which made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border on May 25 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Aila killed at least 339 people, 149 in India and 190 in Bangladesh.

The Philippines have three more tropical cyclones to their east to keep an eye on. So far, none of these storms appear to pose a major threat. Tropical Storm Parma is expected to curve to the northwest and miss the islands, Tropical Depression 18 is expected to dissipate, and newly-formed Tropical Depression 20 will probably pass to the north of the islands.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How to help Ketsana victims
Help the UN World Food Programme by making a donation. This program identifies families in specific need of aid. Just $18 provides a family with rice for two weeks. This is the most critical and immediate way you can make an impact.

Donate to the International Red Cross and help them continue to put relief workers on the ground in the Philippines.

Donate via Catholic Relief Services online of the Philippines or call 1-877-HELP-CRS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to affect land.

Jeff Masters

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 625 - 575

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625. IKE
All clear in the Atlantic on the 00Z ECMWF through October 10th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
624. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TYPHOON PARMA (T0917)
15:00 PM JST September 30 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon Near The Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Parma (970 hPa) located at 9.9N 135.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.0N 131.6E - 80 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 15.6N 128.8E - 85 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.8N 127.0E - 85 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
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622. JLPR


intense convection gone
im off to bed
goodnight :0)
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and now the best night sleep that i have not had in 4 moths or so i been geting up at 5am for 4 moths


heh heh i dont have too any more in tell next summer


night all
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Quoting winter123:
THREE systems in a row in the WPAC? This has to be some kind of record. Like least total distance between three storms.


Link



am sure there been 3 storms out there be for in the W Pac all so 18W will most likey not going to make it so will olny have to storms out there too track
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and this about when all the bickering starts am going too say good night

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Quoting TampaSpin:


You should get banned for this.


How come TS, whats the problem?

Edited because of #619
TS, if you have a problem, WUmail Admin or myself, but keep it out of the main blog.

I'm out for the night.. have fun
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
THREE systems in a row in the WPAC? This has to be some kind of record. Like least total distance between three storms.


Link
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Quoting Orcasystems:

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Check out the comments section for the Comedy


You should get banned for this.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
614. JLPR
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613. xcool



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612. JLPR
little batch of decent winds with the TW at 50-45W

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611. Skyepony (Mod)
Press~ I hope so too. There is really no one better qualified to give it a go. FEMA always seemed to run smoother in FL. There was lessons learned but at least when they screwed up they handed out a little too much instead of totally dropping the ball. Faye & FEMA around here ran like a well rehearsed play for the most part, even with the multiple landfalls & time spent meandering the state. They set up where people from badly flooded areas could walk to the FEMA place even.
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Quoting Skyepony:
press~ I'll tell you how FEMA will help~ Craig Fugate is running it now. I confess to being a distant relative of his, don't know him personally. But ask any Floridian, he's been our disaster coordinator for the state for years. The calm informing voice before that gets things up & running after. In my opinion we for the 1st time have someone running FEMA that is qualified to attempt to take the reins of that beast..


Fugate has a GREAT reputation...I just fear that FEMA disfunction is greater than anyone can resolve...hope to God you're right...
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609. Skyepony (Mod)
press~ I'll tell you how FEMA will help~ Craig Fugate is running it now. I confess to being a distant relative of his, don't know him personally. But ask any Floridian, he's been our disaster coordinator for the state for years. The calm informing voice before that gets things up & running after. In my opinion we for the 1st time have someone running FEMA that is qualified to attempt to take the reins of that beast..
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30/0230 UTC 9.5N 136.1E T4.5/4.5 PARMA -- West Pacific


this can not be good



T # with PARMA jump from 3.5 too 4.5
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does anyone have any weather related ideas as to why in spring hill fl after haveing seen 0 big bumble bees would we have found 15 of them hanging out around the front porch light tonight? Is it possible they are acting different because of the cold front moving across the states?
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606. JLPR
since we are at blackout
Eumetsat is the best we got :|
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605. 7544
Quoting JRRP:


maybe jrrp and chicklet could be as the 18z gfs show something there making it all the way to fla. ? hard to tell from this run lol

Link
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604. JRRP
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Well, no news yet out of Da Nang from my neighbors family. As expected,power appears to be out all over the area according to news reports. Flooding is major. At this point it is just wait and if nothing soon check with relief agencies. Actual news has been rather sparse. Early still would be my guess.

From Reuters:
The biggest floods in decades threatened Vietnam's central provinces on Wednesday following a powerful typhoon that swept into the country after wreaking havoc in the Philippines.

The government said 38 people had died and 10 were missing in floods and landslides in eight coastal and central highland provinces. River waters in Quang Nam (just below Da Nang) province could reach a level last seen in 1964 by Wednesday evening, weather reports said.

"From the air, one can see many areas around Danang being isolated by floods," a Reuters witness said. "Sea waves pounded the road along Danang's beach and threw several ships onshore."


Thanks for the update. Though not good, I, plus others (who asked earlier on the blog if you had heard anything) were concerned about your friend's family and all affected. Again, prayers go out.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Check out the comments section for the Comedy
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
601. xcool



American Samoa Tsunami
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Well, no news yet out of Da Nang from my neighbors family. As expected,power appears to be out all over the area according to news reports. Flooding is major. At this point it is just wait and if nothing soon check with relief agencies. Actual news has been rather sparse. Early still would be my guess.

From Reuters:
The biggest floods in decades threatened Vietnam's central provinces on Wednesday following a powerful typhoon that swept into the country after wreaking havoc in the Philippines.

The government said 38 people had died and 10 were missing in floods and landslides in eight coastal and central highland provinces. River waters in Quang Nam (just below Da Nang) province could reach a level last seen in 1964 by Wednesday evening, weather reports said.

"From the air, one can see many areas around Danang being isolated by floods," a Reuters witness said. "Sea waves pounded the road along Danang's beach and threw several ships onshore."
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
it RAINED here tonight...we all stood outside like idiots...
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Yeah, the JTWC said TS Ketsana would dissipate in 12 hrs. That was 15 hrs ago. Granted, by now she's a TD, but if she completes the journey into the BOB, what will they call her? The El Nino fiasco of 2009, anything is possible!


Kensana would still be Kensana. Super Typhoon Durian actually did a similar type thing in 2006.



The same occurred with Typhoon Gay in 1989.



Crossing from the W. Pac to the Indian basins is rare, but it is by no means unprecedented.

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597. xcool



Forecast Precip from coolwx.com
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Quoting somemalayguy117:
Ketsana might survive the trip overland and redevelop in the BOB.


Yeah, the JTWC said TS Ketsana would dissipate in 12 hrs. That was 15 hrs ago. Granted, by now she's a TD, but if she completes the journey into the BOB, what will they call her? The El Nino fiasco of 2009, anything is possible!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
595. JLPR
maybe it will get a yellow circle once it gets closer to the islands

right now it has a broad circulation, it needs a better LLC to be considered a candidate

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594. JLPR
night kman :)
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Quoting somemalayguy117:
Parma seems to be rapidly intensifying. Not good...

And the JMA and JTWC are going to get their hands full.


Close, the JMA and the JTWC have their HANDS FULL!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Good night all
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Quoting Chicklit:

Not even a yellow flag on that... CATLoop
Really, goodnight!


Too soon for yellow. Maybe in 18 hours or thereabouts
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590. xcool






impact weather.

66.9°F here in slidell la

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If anyone sees a way for Portlight to help in this situation, I'm all over it...and...anyone who can tell me how FEMA is actually gonna help in this situation, I'll send you $50...


STATEMENT FROM FEMA ADMINISTRATOR CRAIG FUGATE



“The Federal Emergency Management Agency has activated its National Response Coordination Center, as well as our Regional Response Coordination Center in Region IX, in order to support American Samoa as they respond to the earthquake and resulting tsunami in the Pacific Ocean. Working closely with the US Coast Guard, FEMA is deploying an Incident Management Assistance Team (IMAT) as well as a Planning and Response Team (PRT) to American Samoa to provide support and on the ground assessment. FEMA, who has provisions pre-positioned in a distribution center in Hawaii, is also preparing to send supplies as needed. We remain in contact with the leadership of American Samoa and our federal partners and will continue to monitor the situation to ensure that there are no unmet needs in the territory or in other potentially impacted regions. As we take the steps necessary to address the situation, our thoughts and prayers are with the people in the affected communities that have been impacted by this event.”





FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.



# # #





Marcie Roth
Senior Advisor, Disability Issues
Department of Homeland Security/ FEMA

202.212.1537 (office)

202.285.9231 (cell)

marcie.roth@dhs.gov



“FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capacity to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.”
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening
I have not been on for a while due to quiet conditions. One area worth watching IMO is the wave near 45W which is approaching this anticyclone dead ahead

You never know what can spin up even in a year with reduced activity. Anything forming near 50W would likely head due W with high pressure dominating to the N in the CATL right now.

Not even a yellow flag on that... CATLoop
Really, goodnight!
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586. jipmg
2 more cold fronts after the one that just came through central FL, coming during the upcoming week
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WOW, what a day! First Typhoon Ketsana hits Vietnam, with 34 reported dead. There is now Typhoon Parma, which appears destined to become a CAT 3 Typhoon, TS Melor and TD in the W PAC. And an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Bengal, aka 90B.

While the Atlantic & E PAC are quiet, oops, 1 Invest in the E PAC, the other side of the world is getting hammered.

Then the 8.0 MW earthquake and several Tsunami waves hitting American Samoa and the neighboring Samoa. Very sad day with up to 100 feared dead.

Philippines still trying to clean up after TS Katsana flooded Manila and surrounding cities. My prayers to all the families suffering through these disasters.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
584. xcool
hey
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Good evening
I have not been on for a while due to quiet conditions. One area worth watching IMO is the wave near 45W which is approaching this anticyclone dead ahead

You never know what can spin up even in a year with reduced activity. Anything forming near 50W would likely head due W with high pressure dominating to the N in the CATL right now.
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Been monitoring the AOI for a few days now.....this is my update from 9-27


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Anyway, what do I know. Nuthin'.
See y'all tomorrow.
Many prayers for the people on Samoa tonight.
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TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS SEEN IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 39W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-48W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
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Tho it doesn't look like it on the weather report...hmmm.
Point Forecast: New Smyrna Beach FL
29.02°N 80.93°W (Elev. 3 ft)
Last Update: 9:59 pm EDT Sep 29, 2009
Forecast Valid: 11pm EDT Sep 29, 2009-6pm EDT Oct 6, 2009
Overnight Mostly Clear Lo 64 °F
Wednesday Sunny Hi 81 °F Wednesday Night Mostly Clear Lo 59 °F
Thursday Sunny Hi 82 °F
Thursday Night Mostly Clear Lo 66 °F
Friday Mostly Sunny Hi 87 °F
Friday Night Partly Cloudy Lo 72 °F
Saturday Chance Tstms Hi 85 °F
I don't get it.
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Hi all,

Looks like there's some 'good ole' GOM rain headed toward Fla.
Loop
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Quoting mikatnight:


I read the '26 Great Miami Hurricane created a tidal bore up the Miami River. Is that possible?
You bet.
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575. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0000z 30SEPT)
==========================================

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 13.0N 146.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots

---
TC 18W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.