Typhoon Ketsana hits Vietnam; death toll in Philippines swells to 246

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on September 29, 2009

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Typhoon Ketsana slammed into Vietnam this morning as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds. Ketsana brought sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 71 mph to Da Nang Vietnam. Heavy rainfall amounts of 7.2" and 9.1" were observed at Da Nang, and Hue, respectively, over the past two days. Floods and landslides in Vietnam from Ketsana's heavy rains have already claimed at least 22 lives.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in Manila's Park 9 Alley, where the Barangay Hall of Loyola Heights is located. Image credit: Manuel Quezon III.

The death toll in the Philippines from Ketsana continues to rise, with 284 dead or missing. The storm flooded the homes of 1.9 million people, leaving 350,000 people homeless. Ketsana brought 16.7 inches of rain in a twelve-hour period to Manila on Saturday, which was the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city. Ketsana is the third deadliest deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the globe so far this year. The deadliest was Typhoon Morakot, which left 654 people dead or missing on Taiwan, when it hit the island as a Category 2 typhoon on August 7. The second deadliest was Cyclone Aila, which made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border on May 25 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Aila killed at least 339 people, 149 in India and 190 in Bangladesh.

The Philippines have three more tropical cyclones to their east to keep an eye on. So far, none of these storms appear to pose a major threat. Tropical Storm Parma is expected to curve to the northwest and miss the islands, Tropical Depression 18 is expected to dissipate, and newly-formed Tropical Depression 20 will probably pass to the north of the islands.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How to help Ketsana victims
Help the UN World Food Programme by making a donation. This program identifies families in specific need of aid. Just $18 provides a family with rice for two weeks. This is the most critical and immediate way you can make an impact.

Donate to the International Red Cross and help them continue to put relief workers on the ground in the Philippines.

Donate via Catholic Relief Services online of the Philippines or call 1-877-HELP-CRS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to affect land.

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning Dr. Masters and fellow bloggers on WU. Hope all is well with everyone and that everyone has a great, blessed day.

Typhoon Ketsana will soon be no more. Hopefully the Vietnemese people are safe and damage is not too severe. Unfortunately, there has been loss of life and damage. Reports will trickle out over the coming hours/days.

Yes, we fought a war against Vietnam, unfortunately, it did NOT turn out the way the USA expected. I remember growing up during the war, it was horrible. That ended 35yrs ago, is there any way to stop beating that "dead horse" please. I know people from Vietnam, I heard how they suffered, they were "boat people" rescued by the US NAVY.
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yep, it was 59 degrees here(14 miles west of ike)this morning and it felt good.
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Unofficial Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Magicchaos' Western Pacific Public Advisory
Tropical Storm Eighteen-W (18W) Advisory Number 10
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...Eighteen continues west-northwest with little change in strength...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...The center of Tropical Storm Eighteen-W was located near latitude 12.2 degrees north and longitude 148.2 degrees east. This is about 245 miles east-southeast of Guam,Marianas.

Eighteen-W is moving toward the west-northwest at 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A decrease in forward speed is expected within the next few days and Eighteen could be near the Marianas by late tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next 24 hours, followed by a weakening tread. By Friday, Eighteen-W is expected to be absorbed by the stronger Parma(19W).

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 MB...29.65 inches.

This system is not named because it is still a tropical depression according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.2N 148.2E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT. LOCATION, WINDS, MOVEMENT, AND FORECAST ARE FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. PRESSURE WAS FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGY AGENCY. THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE OFFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH.

NOTE: This is not a real product. I'm just doing this for fun and to make a Western Pacific public advisory easy to understand by using the NHC's format.
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My Father served in the Cuban Air Force (pre-Castro) for 13 years; flew in the Bay of Pigs invasion attempt, then, served as a CIA contractor in Africa in the 60's in the Belgian Congo.....All in the name of fighting Communists who were hell bent on destroying lives and people....We lost a lot of lives during the Cold War in the name of freedom and Democracy and they all proudly served. God Bless all of our soldiers who have served this great Country.
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71. IKE
Quoting CUBWF:
Hi Ike, did you got your colder temps already?


Got down to 61 at my house. Nice outside now...71.3 degrees...dew point of 50.

Props to our military...I'm out for now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Theres really no place anywere for a remark like the one i posted especially coming from a war background in my family.(Again) i for one appreciate and fully respect everything every soilder has done for this country. I did not mean in any way shape or form to call americans soldiers killers ive been working 24hrs straight at the office and work.
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Yea the comment was insensitive, considering the source I am not surprised

there was no need to make that connection and there was something behind the word "killers"

If he was just answering a question there are much better ways to do so, but then again where would be the drama right?
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Hi Ike, did you got your colder temps already?
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What a soldier did or didnt do in the course of his duties and the means he took to survive over there has nothing to do with typhoons hitting the country, so there really was no need to attempt to connect the two. nuf said by me.....
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Quoting IKE:


He was suppose to go in then, but it got delayed til Oct. 1st.

Amazing luck...or someone is watching out for him...
Out.
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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
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64. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:

My wife did that boot camp in July/August (yeeshh)...be glad he is doing Lackland in the fall.
L8R, y'all.


He was suppose to go in then, but it got delayed til Oct. 1st.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting atmoaggie:
MJO not moving and the GFS long term forecast changed again to bring us no amplitude which means...
...nothing.



Clarification: If it verified, it might mean we get nothing in the way of tropical development. My comment was that the GFS forecast changing at more than a week out means nothing, as it's skill at the MJO, especially more than a few days out, is rather poor.
Thanks for the claification. Could hamper development in October IMO
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The only killers in that war were the comunists. Still they have they own people living in the misery. I think every body in this blog deserve a good explanation. I, as a cuban like you, can't accept someone call americans soldiers as killers. They have been bringing freedom all around the world for years. And you must be the first to give then thanks because you are free in their country. Want to believe you didn't meant to said that.
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61. IKE
Quoting hurricane23:


What i meant was i was tring to help someone with a question in regards to typhoons and the Viet Nam vicinity.

Again my apologies.


I do not know how you could even remotely think of them in that regard.

Think I'll take a break from here for awhile.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Agree. I've never served in the military. My father did in the Air Force for over 20 years...retired Master Sgt.

My wife's son is going to boot camp tomorrow in San Antonio.

My wife did that boot camp in July/August (yeeshh)...be glad he is doing Lackland in the fall.
L8R, y'all.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I will just leave that one alone.. and stick to the weather.


Good idea imo.
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Quoting SQUAWK:


OK, then exactly what did you mean???


What i meant was i was tring to help someone with a question in regards to typhoons and the Viet Nam vicinity.

Again my apologies.
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57. IKE
Quoting PanamaBeach1:
I am here everyday, just lurking and reading, and as a vet I can say that was a very uncalled for remark.


Agree. I've never served in the military. My father did in the Air Force for over 20 years...retired Master Sgt.

My wife's son is going to boot camp tomorrow in San Antonio.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting beell:


Mind your own soldiers...


I will just leave that one alone.. and stick to the weather.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting MahFL:
Sounds like we have a pacifist on board.
Weather has always affected wars......


nobody is more of a pacifist liberal ol hippie than me, and I cringed when i read that. how could anyone call a fresh faced high school boy in jesus sandals and a beatle haircut forced into the draft a "killer" good lord. thats not "pacifist" that is ignorant beyond belief. please dont insult ME by calling that person a pacifist!
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54. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:
MJO not moving and the GFS long term forecast changed again to bring us no amplitude which means...
...nothing.



I looked at other charts this morning...not much there on the Atlantic side.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I am here everyday, just lurking and reading, and as a vet I can say that was a very uncalled for remark.
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MJO not moving and the GFS long term forecast changed again to bring us no amplitude which means...
...nothing.



Clarification: If it verified, it might mean we get nothing in the way of tropical development. My comment was that the GFS forecast changing at more than a week out means nothing, as it's skill at the MJO, especially more than a few days out, is rather poor.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, you trashed him enough for a thoughtless and stupid remark.. let it go. Click on the minus sign and carry on with the day.


Mind your own soldiers...
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77878
TCNA21 RJTD 291200 CCB
CCAA 29120 47644 PARMA(0917) 21080 11383 14244 225// 92908=
KETSANA(0916) 20153 11077 13324 250// 92712=
NAMELESS 22106 11574 1419/ 220//=

12:00 PM UTC September 29 2009
TY Ketsana (0916) [System #20]
15.3N 107.7E
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

TS Parma (0917) [System #21]
8.0N 138.3E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Tropical Depression 22
10.6N 157.4E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

--
TD 22 is Melor now
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45628
Unofficial Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Magicchaos' Western Pacific Public Advisory
Tropical Storm Ketsana (17W) Advisory Number 19
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...Ketsana weakening over land...This is the last advisory...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...The center of Tropical Storm Ketsana was located near latitude 15.4 degrees north and longitude 107.5 degrees east. This is about 75 miles south of Hue,Vietnam.

Ketsana is moving toward the west at 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. This motion is expected until the system dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast until Ketsana eventually dissipates tonight.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 MB...28.94 inches.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.4N 107.5E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS THE JTWC ISSUED THEIR FINAL WARNING.

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT. LOCATION, WINDS, MOVEMENT, AND FORECAST ARE FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. PRESSURE WAS FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGY AGENCY. THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE OFFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH.

NOTE: This is not a real product. I'm just doing this for fun and to make a Western Pacific public advisory easy to understand by using the NHC's format.
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Quoting hurricane23:
NO! Did not mean it that way pat at all, my dad pasted away during the gulf war back in 91 and i have plenty of friends currently situated in iraq and i fully respect and appreciate everything there doing for this country.



Okay - let's say you didn't mean it. What was the "(killers)" suppose to mean???
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Quoting hurricane23:
NO! Did not mean it that way pat at all, my dad pasted away during the gulf war back in 91 and i have plenty of friends currently situated in iraq and i fully respect and appreciate everything there doing for this country.



OK, then exactly what did you mean???
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Quoting hurricane23:
NO! Did not mean it that way pat at all, my dad pasted away during the gulf war back in 91 and i have plenty of friends currently situated in iraq and i fully respect and appreciate everything there doing for this country.

Then why did you call us Killers? You Respect No One
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ReliefWEB

Serving the information needs of the humanitarian relief community
29 Sep 2009




(From GDACS)

Orange alert: Tropical Cyclone KETSANA-09 Category 2 affected 854 thousand people with wind speeds of hurricane strength or stronger in Vietnam.
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OK, you trashed him enough for a thoughtless and stupid remark.. let it go. Click on the minus sign and carry on with the day.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
NO! Did not mean it that way pat at all, my dad pasted away during the gulf war back in 91 and i have plenty of friends currently situated in iraq and i fully respect and appreciate everything there doing for this country.

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Quoting hurricane23:


Hopefully we'll get a break from the 90's here soon in southern florida but thats still a good month or so away.welcomed break this season across the the atl we'll see what 2010 holds. should be interesting.


i'm with you 150%...but 8 weeks to the end of hurricane season...cross your fingers
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Adrian, it looks like you tried to piss in the wrong Wheaties bowl. Do not forget the the ONLY reason you are able to make entries in this, or any blog is because of those "killers" that have given evertyhing they have to protect your right to do so.
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Quoting hurricane23:


I would think they get hit quite often. To get statistics you would have to do a web search. It is a tropical jungle and during the Vietnam War i recall reading that the soldiers (killers) were often hindered by tropical storms.

click on each section of the bar graph (in years) at the top of this page and you will get a much more detailed list of storms and their effects. Each five year segment can be clicked on.

Hope that helps. adrian
killers

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Tropical Depression 18 is expected to dissipate


Not according to the JTWC:

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1809.gif
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Quoting hurricane23:


I would think they get hit quite often. To get statistics you would have to do a web search. It is a tropical jungle and during the Vietnam War i recall reading that the soldiers (killers) were often hindered by tropical storms.

click on each section of the bar graph (in years) at the top of this page and you will get a much more detailed list of storms and their effects. Each five year segment can be clicked on.

Hope that helps. adrian


That's clearly the most offensive thing I have read on this blog.
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36. IKE
Adrian...I can't see how you could say you didn't intend to offend anyone after calling soldiers...killers.

That was a low-blow.

Props to all that have and do serve in the military for a job well done.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tropics21:
Patrap Thanks for the Video Puts a lump in My throat Remembering My Lost comrades thank You


Semper Fi...
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Adrian, I used to wonder why some here took issue with your comments.

So you were told to think soldiers are killers?

So are all islanders bums? Do all S. Floridians contract skin cancer at the age of 30? Do all wind surfers do their hobby in tropical storms?

I am sure most soldiers did not want to be there and that very few at all enjoyed what they were doing.

You might consider yourself on comment probation with a suspended iggy sentance...
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Patrap Thanks for the Video Puts a lump in My throat Remembering My Lost comrades thank You
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Typhoon Cobra
18 Dec 1944

Contributor: C. Peter Chen

In 1274, Mongol conqueror Kublai Khan sent a great army of 40,000 in a vast fleet of 1,000 transports to Japan. The army returned before the invasion started after a typhoon drowned 13,000 troops. The Khan tried again in 1281, this time with the largest fleet history had ever seen: 4,500 ships and 145,000 troops. Defeating the initial fierce resistance, the Mongol troops retreated to their ships to regroup and rest for the night, only to be met with yet another typhoon, wiping out as many as 100,000 soldiers. Kublai Khan never attempted to conquer Japan again. The Japanese heralded the typhoons as kamikaze, divine wind sent from heaven that saved their homeland.
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you could have fooled me and everyone else. also, that was a lame apology.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Like sand in an hour glass...the season is passing on by.


Hopefully we'll get a break from the 90's here soon in southern florida but thats still a good month or so away.welcomed break this season across the the atl we'll see what 2010 holds. should be interesting.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Whoa...i did not mean it that way by anymeans just trying to help someone find the answer to there question. My comments were not meant to offend anyone.
You Called us Killers Would have loved to have had You in My platoon over there and have you say the same thing
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Quoting hurricane23:
Whoa...i did not mean it that way by anymeans just trying to help someone find the answer to there question. My comments were not meant to offend anyone.


That is just plain BULL. You inserted that remark to do just what you are now trying to defend. You just went into the losers hall of fame.
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Sounds like we have a pacifist on board.
Weather has always affected wars......
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Hey Adrian, I cant believe that you call american soldier as killer. It may be not well understand by us? If we have had that kind of soldier our country didn't have to go troug this 50 years of comunism. That is so sad.
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Only Adrian could stoop so Low as to portray the American Fighting Man in such Light.

So much for any respect for him from myself or any other service member...here.










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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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