Typhoon Ketsana hits Vietnam; death toll in Philippines swells to 246

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on September 29, 2009

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Typhoon Ketsana slammed into Vietnam this morning as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds. Ketsana brought sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 71 mph to Da Nang Vietnam. Heavy rainfall amounts of 7.2" and 9.1" were observed at Da Nang, and Hue, respectively, over the past two days. Floods and landslides in Vietnam from Ketsana's heavy rains have already claimed at least 22 lives.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in Manila's Park 9 Alley, where the Barangay Hall of Loyola Heights is located. Image credit: Manuel Quezon III.

The death toll in the Philippines from Ketsana continues to rise, with 284 dead or missing. The storm flooded the homes of 1.9 million people, leaving 350,000 people homeless. Ketsana brought 16.7 inches of rain in a twelve-hour period to Manila on Saturday, which was the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city. Ketsana is the third deadliest deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the globe so far this year. The deadliest was Typhoon Morakot, which left 654 people dead or missing on Taiwan, when it hit the island as a Category 2 typhoon on August 7. The second deadliest was Cyclone Aila, which made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border on May 25 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Aila killed at least 339 people, 149 in India and 190 in Bangladesh.

The Philippines have three more tropical cyclones to their east to keep an eye on. So far, none of these storms appear to pose a major threat. Tropical Storm Parma is expected to curve to the northwest and miss the islands, Tropical Depression 18 is expected to dissipate, and newly-formed Tropical Depression 20 will probably pass to the north of the islands.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How to help Ketsana victims
Help the UN World Food Programme by making a donation. This program identifies families in specific need of aid. Just $18 provides a family with rice for two weeks. This is the most critical and immediate way you can make an impact.

Donate to the International Red Cross and help them continue to put relief workers on the ground in the Philippines.

Donate via Catholic Relief Services online of the Philippines or call 1-877-HELP-CRS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to affect land.

Jeff Masters

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Below is the latest compliments of the CNN News Wire on Typhoon Katsana

September 29th, 2009
Killer Ketsana slams into Vietnam
Posted: 01:29 PM ET
(CNN) %u2014 After lashing the Philippines with deadly force for several days, Ketsana slammed into Vietnam Tuesday, where it weakened to a tropical storm as it moved inland, forecasters said.

%u201CThe system is expected to completely dissipate over land within the next 12 hours as it continues to track to the west,%u201D the Joint Typhoon Warning Center said in a 11 a.m. ET statement, its final on the storm.

Aid agencies reported that amid flood warnings, some 200,000 people were evacuated from low-lying areas to community centers and schools on higher ground on Vietnam.

Numerous news agencies reported the deaths of more than a dozen people. CNN could not independently verify the reports.

%u201CToday was pretty bad, they say that this is the worst of it,%u201D iReporter Jeff Puchalski, 43, told CNN, speaking from Danang.

%u201CIt was very strong winds,%u201D he said.

Puchalski, who lives in Ho Chi Minh City, was staying at a resort in Danang. His video from outside the resort showed tiles falling from the roof and littering the ground. Although he had intended to stay only for a weekend, he said he was stuck there until the storm passed.

%u201CWe%u2019re also getting very heavy rains,%u201D he said. Hours later, he e-mailed to say the airport would reopen on Wednesday and that he and his family were on the first flight back to Ho Chi Minh City.

The city of Hue in central Vietnam picked up an estimated 13 inches of rainfall in a day, according to CNN Meteorologist Jennifer Delgado.

The global relief agency World Vision said the Vietnamese government had shut down airports, schools and power in the Danang area, three hours from Hue.

Danang is predicted to be in the eye of the storm. It%u2019s very windy and trees have already blown down,%u201D said Le Van Duong, World Vision%u2019s emergency response coordinator in Danang.

%u201CWe have seen the evacuation of 3,000 families from our project areas to safer places, including schools, and we have already distributed noodle packs to 700 families.%u201D

Ketsana left at least 246 people dead as it passed over the Philippines. Another 38 people were still missing, according to the nation%u2019s National Disaster Coordinating Council. Nearly 2 million people were affected by the killer storm and 567,000 people had been evacuated.



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Quoting hydrus:
I am sorry Floodman. We did not lose anyone. My uncle made it home but was almost killed. He was shot by a machine gun, hit by three bullets ,one in the leg, two in the arm.


I'm sorry to hear that; I hope he has no lingering effects from his experience. Those of us that did lose people were shaped by our loss, I for one am a pacifist; war is wrong, and the results far out weigh the benefits when all the fighting is over...that is not to say that it isn't unavoidable but I, for one, do not blame the guy that has to fight the war, I always question whether or not every option was considered before the bloodshed begins. Anyone who is "pro-war" should be made to fight in one; these people are typically the ones who never fought
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Plenty of seasons to come; all we need in the future (and we will) is another neutral or La Nina season and the numbers will jump up again.......Can't wait till I retire so I can track these things 24/7 instead of sporadically during the work day....My Wife will probably kick me out when I buy 5 computer monitors and tracking software on my 65th birthday.......... :)
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The Philippines should look out for Parma. The reliable ECMWF and GFS forecast for this system to come over or pass just north of the northern Philippines.
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Patrap-

that picture, it looks like it was taken from a hiding spot
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Ready for Liftoff

The Soyuz rocket is seen shortly after arrival to the launch pad on Monday, Sept. 28, 2009, at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The Soyuz is scheduled to launch the crew of Expedition 21 and a spaceflight participant on Sept. 30, 2009.

Image Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls
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Astronaut Jeff Williams' Blog Expedition 21

Go For Launch! (L-18 hours)
Posted on Sep 29, 2009 09:46:13 AM | Jeff Williams

We have completed all of the major activities leading up to launch. The rocket is on the launch pad and ready to go. Family and friends were able to attend the rollout which, of course, is a highlight of the Baikonur experience.

Today, the State Commission formally gave a report of readiness and go for launch. A press conference followed immediately after that. After a short break, the prime and backup crews watch the Russian movie classic, White Sun of the Desert, as is the tradition here the day before launch.
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Quoting Floodman:


All relatives...
I am sorry Floodman. We did not lose anyone. My uncle made it home but was almost killed. He was shot by a machine gun, hit by three bullets ,one in the leg, two in the arm.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
Quoting hydrus:
The reason I say that is because the fronts are here early (the tail end of fronts sometimes form storms) and the warm water. In S.W.FL we usually do not get our first cold front until the 3rd week of October(on average).....


ah ok, I see, yeah, this has been year of the shear and fronts
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Quoting IKE:
Looking at the long-range on the 12Z GFS through Oct. 15th, I don't see anything in the tropical Atlantic.

Looking like my thoughts about there possibly being 2 more named systems in the Atlantic may be in jeopardy.


Ahh, the Carib can be surprising...we may see 1-3 more, but if the MJO doesn't turn up, likely not even one more
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Quoting tornadodude:



I think we have one left, but I have absolutely nothing to back this up haha
The reason I say that is because the fronts are here early (the tail end of fronts sometimes form storms) and the warm water. In S.W.FL we usually do not get our first cold front until the 3rd week of October(on average).....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
Freds dead man, gone, poof, been for sometime.
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Quoting hydrus:
Hello Floodman, three relatives,friends or fellow soldiers?


All relatives...
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Quoting BobinTampa:


I may be holding on too long, but I haven't given up on Fred yet. He can still make a comeback!!


Fred?
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Quoting hydrus:
I still think the Western Caribbean has 2 storms left. One in October and one in November.


I may be holding on too long, but I haven't given up on Fred yet. He can still make a comeback!!
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I'm still wondering about those poor people in the you tube link that Doc Masters had posted yesterday. What happened to that poor young lady who was on her car rooftop, and if the brave man who jumped from a nearby building was able to save her. And that poor guy hanging on to dear life in a tree. The video ended before anyone made it safely out. It bothered me all day.
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Quoting btwntx08:

agreed i see one storm and thats it


Either way I'll probably eat crow, either no storm, or two storms ha
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Quoting hydrus:
I still think the Western Caribbean has 2 storms left. One in October and one in November.



I think we have one left, but I have absolutely nothing to back this up haha
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Quoting IKE:
Looking at the long-range on the 12Z GFS through Oct. 15th, I don't see anything in the tropical Atlantic.

Looking like my thoughts about there possibly being 2 more named systems in the Atlantic may be in jeopardy.
I still think the Western Caribbean has 2 storms left. One in October and one in November.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
154. IKE
Looking at the long-range on the 12Z GFS through Oct. 15th, I don't see anything in the tropical Atlantic.

Looking like my thoughts about there possibly being 2 more named systems in the Atlantic may be in jeopardy.
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Download
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Quoting Floodman:


No worries, Orca, my pleasure!

We don't have to agree with the policy (I was dead set against inviolvement in South Vietnam) you just have to understand what the guys assigned to enforce the policy are forced to go through and do. BTW, I lost three in Vietnam, one who died in the custody of the North...
Hello Floodman, three relatives,friends or fellow soldiers?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
c(: lol
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Bagyong Ondoy outside Manila..September 26th

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no his head got... :'( c-c-c... oped off
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Be careful, your last bunny is starting to lean to the right. LOL


ya :P... (\__/)
(='.'=)
(")__(") ahhh! another one :0
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ESL by LSU
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Quoting Canekid98:
(\__/) (\__/) (\__/)
(='.'=) (='.'=) (='.'=)
(")_(") (")_(") (")_(") ahhh!!! bunny attack! erff erff erff... :O :)


Be careful, your last bunny is starting to lean to the right. LOL
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By the way, 400 Canadian soldiers died in Vietnam during the course of the war; they did this because they were told to go, and did their duty for their country in a war that was not theirs; in addition, 4000 Canadian soldiers were wounded or injured during the war as well as numerous civilian "contractors" that were killed. I am not a Canadian, but I am grateful to those Canadians that died in Vietnam and to belittle them is as much an insult to our troops as it is to theirs
Action: Quote | Ignore User


yup
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144. beell
This is not a cool issue. That much is obvious.
Don't even know what to say about the poster that started it all or the lame-ass excuses offered after the fact. And my feelings certainly apply to Canadian soldiers also. They may run a little deeper for the kid next door who did not come home-from My Country.
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(\__/) (\__/) (\__/)
(='.'=) (='.'=) (='.'=)
(")_(") (")_(") (")_(") ahhh!!! bunny attack! erff erff erff... :O :)
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Quoting beell:
86.
Flood,
An opportunity and an obligation to pay respect to soldiers should be given greater weight than the weather. Taking a few minutes away from our precious weather reporting to do so seems very appropriate. It just did not sit well with me.

So, there's the reason for "jumping".

Thanks


I understand your feelings completely; the issue here is that Orca was trying to cool things down a little...

By the way, 400 Canadian soldiers died in Vietnam during the course of the war; they did this because they were told to go, and did their duty for their country in a war that was not theirs; in addition, 4000 Canadian soldiers were wounded or injured during the war as well as numerous civilian "contractors" that were killed. I am not a Canadian, but I am grateful to those Canadians that died in Vietnam and to belittle them is as much an insult to our troops as it is to theirs
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Check out the comments section for the Comedy and I would say from the Blog so far... some of you could really use a good laugh :)
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(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")__(")===> now a cat...
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(\__/ ) hello all this is bunny...
(='.'=)
(")_(")
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Quoting pearlandaggie:


"good morning"?? you really are a college student! LOL


haha yeah, well I went on a date last night, and then watched football, so I had to stay up late for homework lol
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137. beell
86.
Flood,
An opportunity and an obligation to pay respect to soldiers should be given greater weight than the weather. Taking a few minutes away from our precious weather reporting to do so seems very appropriate. It just did not sit well with me.

So, there's the reason for "jumping".

Thanks
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Quoting tornadodude:
Um.. good morning..


"good morning"?? you really are a college student! LOL

j/k! howdy!
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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Sep 29, 11:54 am EDT

Mostly Cloudy

57 °F
(14 °C)
Humidity: 51 %
Wind Speed: N 14 G 17 MPH
Barometer: 29.99" (1015.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 39 °F (4 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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Unofficial Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Magicchaos' Western Pacific Public Advisory
Tropical Depression Melor (20W) Advisory Number 2
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...Depression named Melor while strengthening...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...The center of Tropical Depression Melor was located near latitude 10.8 degrees north and longitude 158.4 degrees east. This is about 905 miles east-southeast of Saipan,Marianas.

Melor is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by a shift to the west-northwest. Melor is expected to be near the Marianas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next few days and Melor could be a typhoon by Friday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 MB...29.47 inches.

This system was named already because it has upgraded to a tropical storm according to the Japan Meteorology Agency.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.8N 158.4E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT. LOCATION, WINDS, MOVEMENT, AND FORECAST ARE FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. PRESSURE WAS FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGY AGENCY. THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE OFFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH.

NOTE: This is not a real product. I'm just doing this for fun and to make a Western Pacific public advisory easy to understand by using the NHC's format.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
Um.. good morning..
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I'm outta here. Let it rest ok.....i can live with that .....but, i have lost all respect for 1 and some for others! Have a good day everyone.
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anyway im out for lunch

be back laterz
Update on the Baxters of Lithia Springs, GA....and pictures of Atlanta flood damage...

Link
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Pensacola
72 °F
Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the NNE
Pressure: 30.07 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 118 ft


Ahhhhhhh, nice.
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Quoting timtrice:


And you and all of the other suckers are feeding right into it. So what does that say about you?



That I have respect for the troops that risk their lives everyday

In this case, a reaction needed to happen, this isnt like a troll saying something stupid with no factual basis behind it, there I agree with you

This was much different and way worse, and deserved a heated reaction. All it says about me and others who reacted is that we have a great respect for those who risk their lives so we have the freedoms to do what we choose.


The real question is what should it say about him to make that kind of deliberate statement in the first place?
ahh...finally first cool down of the season. Nice to have lower humidity and dewpoints. Night time around the coast upper 60's; and the further north and away from the coast you go upper 50's to mid 60's. Good news is at least it will last a few a days.
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By ERIC BERGER
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Sept. 24, 2009, 9:03AM

Houston residents hardly could forget about the tropics one year ago, when many remained without power thanks to Hurricane Ike.

This summer, the tropics have stayed far from our minds because they've been so quiet this season, by every measure.

Tropical systems have caused essentially no damage to the United States, with only one storm making landfall, Florida's Tropical Storm Claudette and its 50 mph winds. Texas hasn't had so much of a whiff of the tropics this year.

Moreover, during the last 15 years of heightened Atlantic storm activity we've typically had about nine storms by this time of year, and we've had just six so far, with two hurricanes.

To be fair, more than two months remain before the official end of hurricane season on Nov. 30, and the seas remain plenty warm for low pressure systems to spin into tropical storms.

But for Texas the threat of a meaningful collision with the tropics is rapidly diminishing. Since the 1850s, only three hurricanes have made landfall in the Lone Star State after today's date, although this is the fourth anniversary of Hurricane Rita's landfall east of Sabine Pass.

And as high wind shear continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico and inhibit the formation of tropical storms as it has all season, ImpactWeather's lead hurricane meteorologist, Chris Hebert, doesn't see that changing.

“Given the current pattern across the U.S. and the climatological record, it appears unlikely that the Texas coast will see any hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2009 season,” he said. “Houston is probably in the clear.”

The region's best chance at storm formation will come if a cool front — a low pressure system — moves into the Gulf and develops the counter-clockwise swirl of a tropical system. But at this time of year those systems begin to track to the Northeast, rather than back toward Texas, Hebert said.

Absent a large hurricane during the next two months, overall tropical activity this year could end up being the lowest in the Atlantic basin since 1997.


Looking better for us every day now as we head into October this coming week......
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I joined in 76 when I was 17.. it was all over by then. Its surprising to see how many Canadians were killed over there in a war we were not even in.

All I can say is.. been there...done that.. don't ever want to do it again.

So get along people.




Well said!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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