Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

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The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

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Anyone getting any info in from the Philippines? Trying to reach my wheelchair-bound brother in Dagupan City and see if he and his wife are OK.......Patrick and Anne Dailey in the Bonuan Gueset subdivision. Any news or update on situation NORTH of Manila would be greatly appreciated!!!
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56. JRRP
Link
CMC show a low toward the antilles

the system is currently at 10n 15w

see you later
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Quoting CrazyDuke:


There is also the rare event where multiple cyclones impact the same area with heavy rain within a few days of each other. For example: Dennis + Floyd in 1999


Dennis and Floyd were hell for my area.
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Quoting tornadodude:
My weather challenge forecast briefing from Professor Mike Baldwin:

Charleston, SC is located just south of the midpoint of the
South Carolina's coastline. KCHS is located at the Charleston AFB,
which is just north of North Charleston, roughly 15 miles NW of
Charleston Harbor and the Atlantic Ocean. Their normal
high/low temperature for this time of the year is 82/63
and their normal daily precipitation is 0.16". Looking at their
daily reports for the month of Sept 2009, they have an average max
temp of 86 and min temp of 69, which is exactly what their
high/low temps were yesterday. Their average daily max
wind speed has been 13 knots. KCHS had some thunderstorms
go through early Sunday morning, resulting in 0.18" of precip and
the strongest winds of the month (max sustained wind 21 knots).

Their proximity to the Atlantic gives them a humid, subtropical climate.
Significant terrain is found in the Appalachian Mountains in the NW
part of the state, so the terrain slopes upward as you move to the NW.
They are vulnerable to tropical storms, and just last week had the
20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, which made landfall just to the
east of Charleston.


This is going to be fun. Good luck.
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Eleven years ago today, Hurricane Georges paid the Mississippi Gulf Coast a visit!
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Quoting tornadodude:
My weather challenge forecast briefing from Professor Mike Baldwin:

Charleston, SC is located just south of the midpoint of the
South Carolina's coastline. KCHS is located at the Charleston AFB,
which is just north of North Charleston, roughly 15 miles NW of
Charleston Harbor and the Atlantic Ocean. Their normal
high/low temperature for this time of the year is 82/63
and their normal daily precipitation is 0.16". Looking at their
daily reports for the month of Sept 2009, they have an average max
temp of 86 and min temp of 69, which is exactly what their
high/low temps were yesterday. Their average daily max
wind speed has been 13 knots. KCHS had some thunderstorms
go through early Sunday morning, resulting in 0.18" of precip and
the strongest winds of the month (max sustained wind 21 knots).

Their proximity to the Atlantic gives them a humid, subtropical climate.
Significant terrain is found in the Appalachian Mountains in the NW
part of the state, so the terrain slopes upward as you move to the NW.
They are vulnerable to tropical storms, and just last week had the
20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, which made landfall just to the
east of Charleston.


if it helps...it's really nice here today...

btw...tell him Hugo actually hit NORTHeast of Charleston...
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Good Afternoon, Futuremet!
Thank you, oh saintly carnivorous marine mammal!

You crack me up, flood. Constantly and consistently.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Guam (en-us-Guam.ogg /ˈɡwɑːm/ (help·info); Chamorro: Guåhån), is an island in the western Pacific Ocean and is an organized, unincorporated territory of the United States. It is one of five U.S. territories with an established civilian government.[3][4] The island's capital is Hagåtña (formerly Agana). Guam is the largest and southernmost of the Mariana Islands.


Thank you, oh saintly carnivorous marine mammal!
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My weather challenge forecast briefing from Professor Mike Baldwin:

Charleston, SC is located just south of the midpoint of the
South Carolina's coastline. KCHS is located at the Charleston AFB,
which is just north of North Charleston, roughly 15 miles NW of
Charleston Harbor and the Atlantic Ocean. Their normal
high/low temperature for this time of the year is 82/63
and their normal daily precipitation is 0.16". Looking at their
daily reports for the month of Sept 2009, they have an average max
temp of 86 and min temp of 69, which is exactly what their
high/low temps were yesterday. Their average daily max
wind speed has been 13 knots. KCHS had some thunderstorms
go through early Sunday morning, resulting in 0.18" of precip and
the strongest winds of the month (max sustained wind 21 knots).

Their proximity to the Atlantic gives them a humid, subtropical climate.
Significant terrain is found in the Appalachian Mountains in the NW
part of the state, so the terrain slopes upward as you move to the NW.
They are vulnerable to tropical storms, and just last week had the
20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, which made landfall just to the
east of Charleston.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2009 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 16:14:54 N Lon : 110:33:16 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 968.4mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 5.7 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -8.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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44. JRRP

Geroges
Link
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Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting Floodman:


Guam is still a US protectorate or somethinmg similar, yes?


Guam (en-us-Guam.ogg /ˈɡwɑːm/ (help·info); Chamorro: Guåhån), is an island in the western Pacific Ocean and is an organized, unincorporated territory of the United States. It is one of five U.S. territories with an established civilian government.[3][4] The island's capital is Hagåtña (formerly Agana). Guam is the largest and southernmost of the Mariana Islands.
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Quoting tornadodude:


thank you, I was though it was Guam, but only because it had an NWS warning, which means it is in the US or part of it anyway


Guam is still a US protectorate or somethinmg similar, yes?
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Off topic.. but nice to know :)

Canadian team makes cancer diagnostic breakthrough
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I know they had one of the best stocked PX's I had ever seen...


Yup. It was a real high traffic area during Nam. Lots of stuff going through there.
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Quoting SQUAWK:


35 years ago they bragged about having the world's largest McDonalds at the time.


I know they had one of the best stocked PX's I had ever seen...
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's because that's typically the case in the United States. Few tropical cyclones of that intensity produce a catastrophic flood event, with the rare exception of stalling systems such as Alberto (1994) and Fay (2008).

Most of the flooding in the USA from tropical cyclones, occurs across mountainous areas, where orographic lift enhances precipitation.


There is also the rare event where multiple cyclones impact the same area with heavy rain within a few days of each other. For example: Dennis + Floyd in 1999
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been to Guam.. fantastic little place in the middle of no where. Its considered the middle class Japanese Hawaiian vacation spot.


35 years ago they bragged about having the world's largest McDonalds at the time.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been to Guam.. fantastic little place in the middle of no where. Its considered the middle class Japanese Hawaiian vacation spot.


oh interesting, I would like to go sometime
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Quoting tornadodude:


thank you, I was though it was Guam, but only because it had an NWS warning, which means it is in the US or part of it anyway


I have been to Guam.. fantastic little place in the middle of no where. Its considered the middle class Japanese Hawaiian vacation spot.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Thanks Orca
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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. What a mess in the Philippines.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Here


thank you, I was though it was Guam, but only because it had an NWS warning, which means it is in the US or part of it anyway
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Quoting tornadodude:
Where is this???


Here

this one is better

The following islands and groups of islands are considered part of Micronesia:

* Banaba, an outlier of Kiribati
* Gilbert Islands, which forms part of Kiribati
* Mariana Islands, politically divided between Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands
* Marshall Islands
* Caroline Islands, politically divided between Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia
* Nauru
* Wake Island
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting tornadofan:


I believe GU = Guam.


ah ok, thanks
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Quoting tornadodude:
Where is this???


I believe GU = Guam.
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Where is this???
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Typhoon Ketsana has intensified to a CAT 2 storm, pressures estimated at 956MB. Recent satellite picture shows her slowly closing in on Central Vietnam, still intensifying as she heads almost due west.

Hope and pray the Vietnamese people are prepared because it appears they're going to get hit HARD.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


A lot of heat in the wheel house of October / November. Hopefully shear continues to rule the roost.


yep...quite a bit of cooling off the eastern seaboard, though. this is good news for the east coast regarding those late-season, recurving storms.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:


A lot of heat in the wheel house of October / November. Hopefully shear continues to rule the roost.
Good morning everyone! Back to forecasting after a short break. I have updated all the forecasts and Tropical Update at the CCHS Weather Center site for anyone who accesses my website.
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Quoting Patrap:
Allison in 2001 was a Tropical Storm that Flooded Houston and took many Lives.


Allison is the only Tropical Storm in the Basin to Have its name retired.


Tropical Storm Allison on June 5, 2001
Formed June 4, 2001
Dissipated June 18, 2001
Highest
winds
60 mph (95 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg)
Fatalities 41 direct, 14 indirect
Damage $5.5 billion (2001 USD)
$6.77 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Texas (particularly around Houston), Louisiana, most of the Eastern United States

Ahh yes, Allison. I remember her well. Of course, how can you forget when you end up with a 25 inch 12 hour rainfall total and a 38 inch 5 day rainfall total??? Allison is certainly a storm that SETX will never forget.
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Good morning all
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Allison in 2001 was a Tropical Storm that Flooded Houston and took many Lives.


Allison is the only Tropical Storm in the Basin to Have its name retired.


Tropical Storm Allison on June 5, 2001
Formed June 4, 2001
Dissipated June 18, 2001
Highest
winds
60 mph (95 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg)
Fatalities 41 direct, 14 indirect
Damage $5.5 billion (2001 USD)
$6.77 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Texas (particularly around Houston), Louisiana, most of the Eastern United States
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In terms of ACE though, I'm pretty sure that September 2009 ranks among the quietest.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Can someone tell me how this Sept ranks in the record books in terms of activity? It has to be one of the slowest of all time. One storm and if I remember correct, 2 hurricane days.


It is the quietest September since 1997, where only 1 storm occurred during the month. However, despite that fact, September 1997 still had more hurricane days than September 2009. In fact, Erika (1997) persisted as a hurricane for well over a week.
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Quoting noraed:
That's scary: Tropical Storm Ketsana. Americans are pretty well conditioned to think it's not a big deal if it isn't a hurricane, and even to treat category 1 hurricanes as minor.

fireflymom @3: is there something weird going on in Madagascar too, or was "Malagasy Republic" an error for the Philippines?


That's because that's typically the case in the United States. Few tropical cyclones of that intensity produce a catastrophic flood event, with the rare exception of stalling systems such as Alberto (1994) and Fay (2008).

Most of the flooding in the USA from tropical cyclones, occurs across mountainous areas, where orographic lift enhances precipitation.
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That's scary: Tropical Storm Ketsana. Americans are pretty well conditioned to think it's not a big deal if it isn't a hurricane, and even to treat category 1 hurricanes as minor.

fireflymom @3: is there something weird going on in Madagascar too, or was "Malagasy Republic" an error for the Philippines?
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Good Morning, I added some Pacific Graphics this time... just so I could find some AOI's.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
for comparison....
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Thank You for the update Dr. Masters
holy cow. you don't want to be in a car when rain is falling at a high rate. extreme weather elsewhere. benign weather in the atlantic, caribbean, and gom.
have a great monday, everyone.
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Thanks Dr. In terms of the dry cool air starting to filter down across the SE conus due to a nice cold front, and, very hostile conditions in the MDR, looks like I will be in "lurk" mode on the Blog for next two weeks. The Blog is not "dead" (don't want to see those comments), the Tropical Atlantic is in "hibernation" right now........ :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8704

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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