Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

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The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
Afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...



Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8356
WXTLIST WMO=ABPW10
ABPW10 PGTW 281730 2009271 1710
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281730Z-290600ZSEP2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281353ZSEP2009//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281352ZSEP2009//
REF/C/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZSEP2009//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 281200Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
9.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 281200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AT 281200Z, TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF HUE VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N
168.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 165.1E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALAIN. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 281434Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FORMING
ALONG FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC.
A 280651Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20KT UNFLAGGED WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPRGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR
AND UPDATED AREAS IN PARA 1.//
WXTLIST: done
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104. xcool
temp 40 in slidell this weekend yay
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Quoting IKE:


Oh I will.

Cold front has made it down to central-Alabama. It'll be here by sunset....



yeah, it is pretty intense
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102. xcool
IKE yep.;)
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101. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


hope you guys enjoy it!


Oh I will.

Cold front has made it down to central-Alabama. It'll be here by sunset....

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99. IKE
Quoting xcool:
Link

ECMWF MODEL.


And once again, it shows zilch through October 8th.
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Quoting IKE:
Afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

"SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
PATTERN BECOMING AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGH IN THE EAST...RIDGE IN THE
WEST...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND TROUGH COMING ASHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAY BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TEMPS OVER THE SHORT
TERM. TONIGHT...60-65...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY 80-85 AND WEDNESDAY...AROUND 80. LOOKS LIKE
DELIGHTFUL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REGION."


hope you guys enjoy it!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8356
Link

ECMWF MODEL.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
96. IKE
Afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

"SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
PATTERN BECOMING AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGH IN THE EAST...RIDGE IN THE
WEST...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND TROUGH COMING ASHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAY BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TEMPS OVER THE SHORT
TERM. TONIGHT...60-65...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY 80-85 AND WEDNESDAY...AROUND 80. LOOKS LIKE
DELIGHTFUL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REGION."
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
93. i wouldn't know...we won't see those kind of temperature for a couple of more months! LOL


haha dang!

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8356
93. i wouldn't know...we won't see those kind of temperatures for a couple of more months! LOL
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
90. "cold"...what's that? LOL


haha well high of 58 tomorrow with winds up to 40 mph
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8356
90. "cold"...what's that? LOL
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This is compliments of the Vietnam Hydro-Meteorological Service on Typhoon Katsana, approx 10 AM CDT 9-28-09

Feedback 22 hours on September 28, located in the center of the storm at about 16.0 degrees North Latitude; 110.7 degrees East Business, the coast of Thua Thien-Hue - Quang Nam province about 240km to the east. In the strongest winds near the center of the storm power supply 13 (ie from 134 to 149 km per hour), shock level 14, level 15, and directly influence the waters of the provinces from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai and the area south Gulf of Tonkin.



Forecast for 24 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and north-west Western, per hour to about 10 - 15km and influence directly to the provinces from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai. To 22 hours on 29 / 9, located at the center of the storm at about 16.4 degrees latitude, 107.6 degrees East Business, on land of Quang Tri - Da Nang. The strongest winds near the storm center power supply 12 (ie from 118 to 133 km an hour), shock level 13, level 14. From the center of the storm the winds dangerous levels 10 and over a radius of about 150 km, from grade 6 and over a radius of 350 km.

Within the next 24 to 48 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and northwest Western, per hour to about 10-15 km. To 22 hours on 30 / 9, located at the center of the storm at about 16.8 degrees latitude, 105.0 degrees East Economy, the Central Laos. The strongest winds near the center of the storm power level 8 (ie from 62 to 74 km per hour), shock level 9. Calculated from the center of the storm winds dangerous level 6 and over a radius of about 150 km.

Within the next 48 to 72 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and north-west Western, per hour to about 10 km, continue to go deeper into the mainland and weakened into a low pressure area over East Northern Thailand. To 22 hours on January 10, central location in the low pressure at about 17.2 degrees latitude, 102.7 degrees East Economy. Strongest winds the low pressure level falls below 6 (ie below 39 km an hour).

Because the impact of storms, the sea west of the North and the South China Sea (including the waters of the Paracel Islands), which winds for 11, level 12, near the center of the storm passing through level 13, level shock 14, level 15. Intense fluctuations. South Bay and the waters of the Northern provinces from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai with winds level 9, level 10, the increased level 11, level 12, near the center of the storm passing through level 13, shock level 14, level 15 . Intense fluctuations. Provinces from Quang Binh to Quang Men 8 levels of wind power, the increased level 9, level 10, near the center of the storm passing through level 11, level 12, shock level 13, level 14. From early on (29 / 9), in the provinces of Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Ngai, Kon Tum strong winds will gradually to levels 6, level 7, the increased level 8, shock level 9, level 10 . Coastal provinces from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue precautions to sea level rise with high tides from the 3 -- 5m. In the provinces from Thanh Hoa to Binh Dinh and the Central Highlands rain to the very large. Necessary precautions flash floods and landslides in the mountains, flooding in the valley.

Besides the effects associated with southwest monsoon active, the area between the South China Sea and sea of Binh Thuan - Ca Mau winds sixth grade, seventh grade, eighth grade shock. Sea powerful.

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live view of the Engineering Fountain at Purdue link, pretty windy and cold out today

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8356
Afternoon all.......LOOKS like the invasion of the Shear is taking over the Atlantic in 3 days

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Quoting presslord:


if it helps...it's really nice here today...

btw...tell him Hugo actually hit NORTHeast of Charleston...


alright, will do, press
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8356
El Nino/La Nina update. from
Allan HuffmanRaleigh Weather Examiner




El Nino/La Nina Update
“Region 3.4 holding in weak El Nino range”

Since the middle of June the sst departure in region 3.4 has essentially held steady, oscillating between 0.7 and 0.9 or solidly in the weak category. This week the anomaly dropped 0.1C back down to 0.8C, so in essence if you use this measuring tool to quantify El Nino, we have seen little change through the summer and into the early Fall. There are some changes going on though across the equatorial Pacific as a whole. As I mentioned in the past, the ENSO area in the Pacific is classified into 4 zones. Region 3.4 is right in the middle of this region near the dateline and is usually used as the primary indicator since it encompasses some territory in both the east and west. In recent weeks the eastern regions of the ENSO region has been cooling and now the area of water right off the coast of South American (Region 1.2) is actually cooler than normal for the first time since March. Meanwhile the central and western regions remain solidly in the weak El Nino range. What does it mean? Well traditionally, though not always, an El Nino centered more towards the dateline is a good think for cold and snow lovers in the eastern US. Right now, I think this El Nino event peaks out in the next 2 months in the 0.9 to 1.2 range. Many of the SST models are showing a peak in the low moderate range. And while some have argued that El Nino is not the cause of the weak and inactive tropical season, the stats don’t lie that El Nino is linked to an inactive hurricane season for whatever physical reason it is. So far we are sitting on 6 named storms, and I think 8 may about do it.





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Quoting HurricaneKing:


This is going to be fun. Good luck.


you too man, I'm totally pumped for it!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8356
The science behind the 'hockey stick' climate graph made famous by Mann, et al, comes into some serious scrutiny.

Sorry about the wall of text, but this synopsis was buried down in the comments section.
From Wattsupwiththat:

In a nutshell:

1- In 1998 a paper is published by Dr. Michael Mann. Then at the University of Virginia, now a Penn State climatologist, and co-authors Bradley and Hughes. The paper is named: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. The paper becomes known as MBH98.

The conclusion of tree ring reconstruction of climate for the past 1000 years is that we are now in the hottest period in modern history, ever.

See the graph http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/image/mann/manna_99.gif

Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mathematician in Toronto, suspects tree rings aren't telling a valid story with that giant uptick at the right side of the graph, implicating the 20th century as the hottest period in 1000 years, which alarmists latch onto as proof of AGW. The graph is dubbed as the Hockey Stick and becomes famous worldwide. Al Gore uses it in his movie An Inconvenient Truth in the famous elevator scene.

2- Steve attempts to replicate Michael Mann's tree ring work in the paper MBH98, but is stymied by lack of data archiving. He sends dozens of letters over the years trying to get access to data but access is denied. McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, of the University of Guelph publish a paper in 2004 criticizing the work. A new website is formed in 2004 called Real Climate, by the people who put together the tree ring data and they denounce the scientific criticism:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/false-claims-by-mcintyre-and-mckitrick-regard ing-the-mann-et-al-1998reconstruction/

3- Years go by. McIntyre is still stymied trying to get access to the original source data so that he can replicate the Mann 1998 conclusion. In 2008 Mann publishes another paper in bolstering his tree ring claim due to all of the controversy surrounding it. A Mann co-author and source of tree ring data (Professor Keith Briffa of the Hadley UK Climate Research Unit) used one of the tree ring data series (Yamal in Russia) in a paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in 2008, which has a strict data archiving policy. Thanks to that policy, Steve McIntyre fought and won access to that data just last week.

4- Having the Yamal data in complete form, McIntyre replicates it, and discovers that one of Mann's co-authors, Briffa, had cherry picked 10 trees data sets out of a much larger set of trees sampled in Yamal.

5- When all of the tree ring data from Yamal is plotted, the famous hockey stick disappears. Not only does it disappear, but goes negative. The conclusion is inescapable. The tree ring data was hand picked to get the desired result.

These are the relevant graphs from McIntyre showing what the newly available data demonstrates.

http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/rcs_chronologies1.gif

http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/rcs_merged.gif
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WOW, Typhoon Ketsana, according to the CIMSS report has 123MPH winds, if their assessment is accurate.

Hopefully, the Vietnamese government gets the word out and QUICK, their window of opportunity to evacuate is quickly running out!!
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from raleighwx.easternuswx
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, that is one thing the NDBC site sure could do better.
If I had to do it, I would download all of the archives for the month from each relevant platform, then have to write a program to pull out the parameters I wanted for the times I wanted. Easily a day of work using some pieces of code I already have (mostly proprietary, too). Starting from nothing, that would take a few days unless you happen to be an Excel genius, then only 2 days, maybe.
Not to mention that this only applies to data from NDBC, which is only data from NOAA-owned systems and others that the platform owner has graciously shared the data for.

If you really are looking for data in the south China Sea, you are probably screwed. Not even NDBC has any data there. Probably because China lays claim to that body of water, in general, and is not interested in us having any data there.


ok
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From what I am seeing TD 18W should get close to Guam in a few days, could be some good radar shots out of there
Quoting Weather456:


archives of a specific area for a single time.

For examples, the ship and buoys obs for April 24 2009 in the South China Sea. Just an example, but something along those lines.

Yeah, that is one thing the NDBC site sure could do better.
If I had to do it, I would download all of the archives for the month from each relevant platform, then have to write a program to pull out the parameters I wanted for the times I wanted. Easily a day of work using some pieces of code I already have (mostly proprietary, too). Starting from nothing, that would take a few days unless you happen to be an Excel genius, then only 2 days, maybe.
Not to mention that this only applies to data from NDBC, which is only data from NOAA-owned systems and others that the platform owner has graciously shared the data for.

If you really are looking for data in the south China Sea, you are probably screwed. Not even NDBC has any data there. Probably because China lays claim to that body of water, in general, and is not interested in us (anyone else, really) having any data there.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2009 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 16:12:47 N Lon : 110:22:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 937.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.7 5.8 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -24.9C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



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Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been to Guam.. fantastic little place in the middle of no where. Its considered the middle class Japanese Hawaiian vacation spot.

I've been in Guam twice, just to change planes. I wsa on the way to a dive trip in Palau and Chuuk. Guam seemed like a very nice place. The airport is huge.

I also remember being surprised that my Nextel phone had coverage - Guam supports an iDEN network.

I worked at Motorola at the time, and actually found a minor bug in the phone. I kept trying to get them to send me back to test the fix, but couldn't make it happen. :(


Weather related: Anyone else in S. Florida notice that we've have a bunch of tiny, heavy storms the past few weeks? I'm used to things that cover a much wider area here.
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Link


try this one much better
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
Link




Weather456 ! go here


do they have archives?
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This has to be a good thing...maybe SREF will be a little more relevant soon.

Email:"NCEP Model Evaluation Subscribers,


The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has proposed an upgrade to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). The model changes include: 1. Three of the four models used in the SREF (NMM, ARW and RSM) will be upgraded in model version (NMM and ARW from WRF V2.0 to WRF V2.2 and RSM from V2003 to V2008) and increased from 40/45 Km to 32/35Km in horizontal resolution. The upgrade and increased resolution significantly improve the performance of each individual member. For example; reducing the temperature bias for WRF members and adding more spatial detail. As a result, better behaved probabilities are also achieved by increasing forecast sharpness for the ensemble as a whole. 2. Increase of WRF membership (NMM from 3 to 5 and ARW from 3 to 5) and reduction of ETA membership from 10 to 6 (members N3, N4, P3 and P4 are removed) 3. More physics diversity by switching from Zhao Cloud Scheme to Ferrier Cloud Scheme in 3 out of 5 RSM members. 4. Forecast output, GRIB, frequency will increase from 3-hourly to hourly for the first 39 hours. 5. Four new aviation products will be added to ensemble products, mean and variability: Icing Clear Air Turbulence Ceiling Flight Restriction 6. Three new products will be added to the individual member output for some members:
PBL Height, Richardson number = 0.25 Simulated composite reflectivity Echo Top, =18.3DBZ 7. Each SREF member BUFR output will be broken out into individual station time series.
*Near real time parallel data:* Beginning Monday, September 28, 2009, a consistent parallel feed of data will be available at:
FTP: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/sref/para
HTTP: http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/ofs/para
We will make the model output available for 15 days starting Monday, 28
September so that end-users of the SREF data can verify that no unforeseen changes have been introduced.

Any comments on this proposed change will be appreciated. Any feedback
you wish to provide during the evaluation period should be emailed to
NCEP.List.ModelEvalFeedback@noaa.gov prior to 16 October, 2009.

The Environmental Modeling Center, EMC, has a publicly available website which can provide users with more information concerning the SREF: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mesoscale.html

"

One thing about that gives pause, though. They are upgrading to WRF (ARW) version 2.2. WRF 3.0 came out more than a year ago and has been updated twice since. I know a lot of work goes into making those models operational and robust at NCEP, but geez.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

What do you need?
Archives for a single location?
All archives for a single time or time period?


archives of a specific area for a single time.

For examples, the ship and buoys obs for April 24 2009 in the South China Sea. Just an example, but something along those lines.
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Link




Weather456 ! go here
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Weather456:


hey

If you have any link that I can find archives of buoy and ship data from around the globe that would be much appreciated.

What do you need?
Archives for a single location?
All archives for a single time or time period?
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Quoting xcool:
looking to me that theres going to be strong MOJ.

Tough to believe that more than 5 days out based on the forecast skill of that feature lately.

Compare the OHC for Ketsana (went from TS to almost 100 knots between the Philippines and Vietnam) to that in the western Caribbean. No comparison, really.



But CHIPS was calling for it to do that and performed much better than the JTWC(?) Official forecasts on this one. I don't think the forecasts are archived on the server, but 2 days ago, this was calling for the 100 knot system.

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Quoting xcool:
hey Weather456 !


hey

If you have any link that I can find archives of buoy and ship data from around the globe that would be much appreciated.
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hey Weather456 !
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Good afternoon to all
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looking to me that theres going to be strong MOJ.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Floodman:


Given the cyclical nature of the MJO downturn/upswing, we are due...

Question is, amplitude of 0.5 or 2.0? Could be the difference between one TS and a few TCs (one or more of which may not be just a TS)
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Thursday is Oct.....looks like this season is just about a wrap.....slowest September that I can ever remember.....see y'all next year
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Much of the Gulf and western Caribbean will still be ripe for TC development when the MJO is forecasted to spike.



As ripe as October 15, 2005 was...atmospheric conditions aside.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
MJO hasn't moved much yet, but GFS insisting on it...



Bad news if the long-term (15 day) verifies. Last time it spiked in that direction we had AnaBillClaudetteDanny spin up.
BIG Caveat: GFS has performed rather poorly at the MJO forecasting most of the season. Worth watching, but not worth getting too excited about yet.


Given the cyclical nature of the MJO downturn/upswing, we are due...
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Quoting seminolesfan:
Thank you, oh saintly carnivorous marine mammal!

You crack me up, flood. Constantly and consistently.


My great pleasure, Fan...
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MJO hasn't moved much yet, but GFS insisting on it...



Bad news if the long-term (15 day) verifies. Last time it spiked in that direction we had AnaBillClaudetteDanny spin up.
BIG Caveat: GFS has performed rather poorly at the MJO forecasting most of the season. Worth watching, but not worth getting too excited about yet.
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I hate those K named storms. The stuff I see on TV all looks like NOLA when the levees broke.
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Hey !
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Anyone getting any info in from the Philippines? Trying to reach my wheelchair-bound brother in Dagupan City and see if he and his wife are OK.......Patrick and Anne Dailey in the Bonuan Gueset subdivision. Any news or update on situation NORTH of Manila would be greatly appreciated!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.