Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

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The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

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My dewpoint is still at 71, but it's much better than it has been.
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Actually not bad right now here. 81 partly cloudy. Light breeze has a little chill to it.

I freeze when it gets anywhere below 70, so I'm all good right now. Humidity could be less, though. 71%
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Dewpoint right now is 58 over my house with an air temperature of 90 under sunny skies(as opposed to the same temperature with a 72 degree dewpoint). Dewpoints will be dropping as low as around 40 by the time the second front sweeps through around Central Florida.

Models are notorious for underestimating this dry air evection(behind the second front). They get it wrong almost every time!

The only place not to get a break is the Florida Keys and Deep South Texas(Brownsville) However, next week even they will get their share I would think.
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Well im off to work, have a good evening all! (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
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152. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
==========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM JST, Typhoon Ketsana (960 hPa) located at 16.0N 110.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in south quadrant
325 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.1N 108.7E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.6N 107.3E - Tropical Depression

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=========================
Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (17W)

System #2
------------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1200z 28SEPT)
==========================================

At 21:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.0N 154.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west slowly

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
===============================================
Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (18W)

System #3
-----------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
==========================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 9.0N 141.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 10.1N 138.4E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Is Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (19W)

System #4
----------

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1730z 28SEPT)
=============================================
An area of convection (90W) located at 5.9N 165.1E or 230 NM southwest of Kwajalain Atoll. Animated infrared imagery shows deep convection consolidating about a developing low level circulation center. A 1434z TRMM Image shows deep convection forming along fragmented banding wrapping into the western side of the low level circulation center. A 0651z Quikscat Pass shows 20 knot unflagged winds on the southern side of an elongated circulation embedded in the monsoon trough. Upper level analysis shows the system near an upper level anticyclone that is providing good poleward outflow and low vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.

---
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45648
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the hippo is on vacation....she took my credit card and flew to Tahiti....damn her....
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
141. and i wasn't even in my pool! LOL


haha nice!
Quoting Seastep:
Can't wait for Jan/Feb tornadodude.

Will feel for you while I'm in the pool and it's 75 out. :)


haha yeah, and it will be 5 here with -30 windchill and ten inches of snow
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting rwdobson:


there's a difference between when a season is officially over, and when it's over for all practical purposes.

take, for example, the tampa bay buccaneers. their season is over for all practical purposes, but officially it goes on for another 13 weeks plus a bye week.


Just in case TS missed it. LOLOLOL.
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146. this is true! LOL
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Can't wait for Jan/Feb tornadodude.

Will feel for you while I'm in the pool and it's 75 out. :)
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Hi.

What happened to the hippo?
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141. and i wasn't even in my pool! LOL
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Afternoon All.

Any recent info on 14N 69W? Looks suspect


Afternoon. Is interesting looking but, shear..

Link
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My crystal ball says we might have one more something_to_watch between October 10th - 20th. Just basing this chance on MJO forecast, a hunch, and one of my vivid ESP-like dreams. :-)
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
138. yeah, keep rubbing it in! it's so moist around here that i went outside to get some air and only found water!


haha time for a swim?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
138. yeah, keep rubbing it in! it's so moist around here that i went outside to get some air and only found water!
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Just in looking at the satellite image tornadodude posted, the entire Atlantic basin looks very much in a more typical late October/early November weather pattern with deep troughs and fronts exiting off the US East Coast and deep troughs nudging down into the MDR. Not going to see anything happening in the tropics if this pattern continues.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
129. yeah, yeah, yeah...stick it! LOL i hope your fingers split open from the low humidity! ;p


haha it feels amazing out, supposed to be 58 tomorrow, and a low of 40 thursday morning
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
129. yeah, yeah, yeah...stick it! LOL i hope your fingers split open from the low humidity! ;p
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Quoting NRAamy:
Hi guys......

:)


good afternoon :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Hi guys......

:)
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Quoting Floodman:


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man


don't read too much into my post...it wasn't a prediction, just poking fun at the lack of coherence in the original post since the word "over" was omitted! LOL
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Quoting Floodman:


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man


Add Hazel to that list also
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting IKE:


Winds have picked up here from the west. Gusting to 20 mph. Leaves and acorns are falling off of the trees.
really windy here lots of leves all over the place had a inch and a half of rain so far today now we are in the low centre will sun shining but not for long as the backside of the low has yet to past by 61 with winds gusting over 40 mph at times once the sun sets should cool off quickly
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Afternoon All.

Any recent info on 14N 69W? Looks suspect
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For those of you with high humidity, the dewpoint here is 38 ha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
We made it through the peak of this season in the Atlantic without a major cane affecting land regardless of whether we have a few more or none at all this year between now and November......That is a Blessing given the hits that the Caribbean/Florida/Gulf have had the last several years......It's nice to get a break this year for a change.
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Quoting Floodman:


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man


Hey,Flood,
Some people need to keep getting reminded,things can happen even in October.Even if its been a quiet season.All it takes is one period when the environment gets less hostile.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


From Wikipedia:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on June 1 and will end on November 30.

There is your answer


remember a storm not to far ago.."wilma" hitting sfla oct 26.....hurricane season till nov.30
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Quoting pearlandaggie:


i'm sure other people with take "what", but i'll take "pretty much"! LOL


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man
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Quoting rwdobson:
It's really bringing back memories to see all the people from the deep south so excited about a nice cold front...here in Kansas City, we had such a non-summer this year, I'm not really that thrilled about a windy day in the 60s. I could go for some more unseasonable warmth.


same here in the northeast,thats all I've seen is cold fronts
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It's really bringing back memories to see all the people from the deep south so excited about a nice cold front...here in Kansas City, we had such a non-summer this year, I'm not really that thrilled about a windy day in the 60s. I could go for some more unseasonable warmth.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


From Wikipedia:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on June 1 and will end on November 30.

There is your answer


there's a difference between when a season is officially over, and when it's over for all practical purposes.

take, for example, the tampa bay buccaneers. their season is over for all practical purposes, but officially it goes on for another 13 weeks plus a bye week.
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Complete WESTERN PACIFIC GRAPHICS UPDATE
Typhoon Ketsana STORM TRACK:

Tropical Storm Nineteen STORM TRACK:

Tropical Depression Eighteen STORM TRACK:
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is the hurricane season pretty much or what?


i'm sure other people with take "what", but i'll take "pretty much"! LOL
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is the hurricane season pretty much or what?


From Wikipedia:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on June 1 and will end on November 30.

There is your answer
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Quoting Ameister12:
The wind is crazy over here all because of that pesky cold front.


Wind here is sustained at 30 mph gusts to 43 mph
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is the hurricane season pretty much or what?


Hurricane Season will be over in 2 months ;)
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The wind is crazy over here all because of that pesky cold front.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


60?

Its forecasted to be a low of 62 in Central Florida on Wednesday night, so yea I could see 40s further north


the coolest I see is 57. 60 pretty much all across the board for Slidell link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
So, is the hurricane season pretty much or what?
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Don't know where you saw that, but don't hold your breath. 60 is likely...40? Fuggedaboudit.


60?

Its forecasted to be a low of 62 in Central Florida on Wednesday night, so yea I could see 40s further north
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting xcool:
temp 40 in slidell this weekend yay

Don't know where you saw that, but don't hold your breath. 60 is likely...40? Fuggedaboudit.
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WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20
AXPZ20 KNHC 281603 2009271 1604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 28 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 85W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ALONG 08N86W TO 13N104W TO 13N115W TO 15N128W TO
14N138W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE WAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
TO THIS AREA...AND COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE S AMERICAN
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AS MUCH AS A TROPICAL WAVE.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
LARGE SW-NE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N138W WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW N OF
18-20N BETWEEN 120W AND 150W. THE TYPICAL BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE COOL WATERS OF THE PACIFIC...CURRENTLY N OF 20N
AND W OF 134W...IS BEING ENHANCED UNDERNEATH THE SE QUADRANT OF
THIS UPPER LOW...YIELDING SCATTERED AREAS OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND STRATIFORM PRECIP...POSSIBLY WITH VERY ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION...N OF 24N AND BETWEEN 130N AND 139W. AN ASSOCIATED
55-65 KT SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...EXTENDING THROUGH 21N129W TO 29N114W. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL DIG SLOWLY SE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SSW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES OF
N AMERICA. THIS PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALSO PREVENT THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH FROM REBUILDING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NW WATERS AND SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP TRADE WINDS LIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM...A RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED SE OF
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THEN SW UNDERNEATH THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE TO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N150W.
GENERALLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS COULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND ACROSS THE NW AND NRN FLANKS OF
THE RIDGE...JUST SE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A TUTT LOW WAS
EVIDENT ALONG 94W MOVING W ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND IGNITING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THE
EPAC IN ITS SE QUADRANT.
A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FROM ACROSS THE
FAR W CARIB...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THEN S CENTRAL MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC HAS AIDED IN THE INITIATION OF A LARGE
CLUSTER OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE W COAST OF MEXICO
THAT HAS LINGERED THROUGH THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH EXCELLENT
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH 21N105W...PART OF
THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE. BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO INITIATING
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 109W. GLOBAL
MODELS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING IN RECENT DAYS THAT THIS AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING AND ACTIVE CONVECTION MAY YIELD AN ORGANIZED
LOW IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE
WNW. SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS ASSUMED TO HAVE ORIGINATED OVER AFRICA AND WAS A
PORTION OF A LONG AGO FRACTURED TROPICAL WAVE.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A 1041 MB LOW
NEAR 45N157W SE TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N11W. THE
REMNANT LOW OF NORA...1009 MB...WAS CENTERED NEAR
17.5N130W...MOVING SLOWLY WSW...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
THE ITCZ CONTINUED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS SEVERAL ZONES IN
THE AREA...UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEVERAL WAVES AND
PERTURBATIONS WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ...A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 85W...ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 105/106W...THE REMNANT LOW OF
NORA ALONG 130W...AND ANOTHER ALONG 139W.
$$
STRIPLING
WXTLIST: done
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting IKE:


Winds have picked up here from the west. Gusting to 20 mph. Leaves and acorns are falling off of the trees.


yeah, pretty dang windy here too
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
108. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, it is pretty intense


Winds have picked up here from the west. Gusting to 20 mph. Leaves and acorns are falling off of the trees.
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Quoting IKE:
Afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.