Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

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The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

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207. aquak9
10:55 PM GMT on September 28, 2009
Dakster- same here(north florida). Warm Temps, thunder, lightning, heavy rain...then it all dries up in an hour or two, and our temps plummet.

we get cold enough to snow, but the rain and the cold never come together enough.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
206. Bordonaro
10:55 PM GMT on September 28, 2009
Quoting amd:
interesting observations with typhoon ketsana:

eye has become cloud filled, and MAY be moving just south of due west.

However, convection is increasing, and ketsana is very symmetrical for the 1st time in its lifetime (in terms of convection).

Link


True. I really feel sorry for Vietnam! Typhoon Katsana has been hovering in the high CAT 2 stage all day, around 105MPH. She's moving W at about 11MPH.

Vietnam has 84 million people living there. Many small to medium sized villages scattered throughout that region of the country. There are mountains about 60MI inland and many of those villages/cities are going to experience MAJOR flash flooding.

I've never been there, from what I read, it's an emerging small third world country! The Hydro-Meteorological Centre has done a GREAT job of broadcasting advisories.

The $64,000 question is, "How many people in that impoverished region have heard and how many of them are evacuating to sturdy structures outside the danger area"? I'm not sure how often Vietnam gets hit with Typhoons, but they're GOING TO GET HIT HARD!

We need to keep them in our prayers, that they will be safe. The Typhoon is within 8-12 HRS of landfall, at the current foward speed.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
205. Cavin Rawlins
10:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2009
Quoting amd:
interesting observations with typhoon ketsana:

eye has become cloud filled, and MAY be moving just south of due west.

However, convection is increasing, and ketsana is very symmetrical for the 1st time in its lifetime (in terms of convection).

Ketsana AVN LOOP


yep, I'm seeing all those observations too. I was amaze how symmetric it really has became despite the eye disappearing.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
204. Cavin Rawlins
10:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2009
A deep occluded low is bringing a surge of cool air to the upper Mid-west, and generating gusty winds and choppy seas across the Great Lakes. This shot was a view of Lake Erie; located approximately 11 miles east of Cleveland, OH. You can tell the cyclone has occluded in the IR satellite below as the low is now surrounded by the entire cold airmass indicating the cold front has wrapped all the way around.







Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
202. JLPR
10:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2009
Fujiwara effect?
Link
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
201. JLPR
10:46 PM GMT on September 28, 2009
The only interesting area in the Atlantic basin xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
200. amd
interesting observations with typhoon ketsana:

eye has become cloud filled, and MAY be moving just south of due west.

However, convection is increasing, and ketsana is very symmetrical for the 1st time in its lifetime (in terms of convection).

Ketsana AVN LOOP
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Quoting druseljic:


I was born and spent my younger years in MD/
PA and I remember whenever we would have a rapid temperature change it was always pretty windy the day before. It's just been so calm here with just a slight breeze and since the blog was so slow today thought I'd ask and learn something... thanks for responding!


No problem. Most of the time in South Florida a cold front comes in after a nice rain storm. It usually doesn't arrive with it, which is why we rarely get snow here. (It does get cold enough to snow in Miami almost every year, but doesn't because the front usually brings dry air and clear skies) I am not sure if this is the same for North Florida.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10810
Quoting Dakster:
druseljic,

In my non-meteorological mind it makes perfect sense to me and it usually happens down in South Florida.


I was born and spent my younger years in MD/
PA and I remember whenever we would have a rapid temperature change it was always pretty windy the day before. It's just been so calm here with just a slight breeze and since the blog was so slow today thought I'd ask and learn something... thanks for responding!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
Quoting Floodman:


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man
Also don't forget to add Paloma to your list (Nov 7th-9th 2008.Direct hit on Cayman Brac as a Cat3 hurricane)
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
Tropical Storm forced winds now affecting the coast of Vietnam, winds now sustain at 48 mph and gusting to 60 mph





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
druseljic,

In my non-meteorological mind it makes perfect sense to me and it usually happens down in South Florida.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10810
I have a question if I may...

I'm in an area which is expecting a 30f degree drop by morning (no complaints) but isn't a rapid temperature change like that normally accompanied by increased winds as the front moves through? It would be nice to have a breezy cool evening here!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
193. amd
weather about 100 miles due west of the center of typhoon ketsana

Da Nang, VS (Airport)
Updated: 20 min 34 sec ago
Rain
77 °F
Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 48 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 60 mph
Pressure: 29.18 in (Steady)

Visibility: 1.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 700 ft
Scattered Clouds 1000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
192. JLPR
wow the Atlantic is so quiet I have been able to stay away from the blog the whole day xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Evening everyone...

Season aint over until Dec. 1. Yes, chances are less now, but not "zero".

I hope that cold front makes it down to Miami. The rain storm we just had felt like a cold front storm. Wow, talk about rain and street flooding.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10810
Its now 92f in Pcola. Can't wait for the early cold front...

Forecast to be 62f overnight :-) !!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
Now, really out. Might be on later.
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456 - Yep. Quiet in the tropical atlantic.

Getting a lot of work done! But, that is make-up for the times I let it slip a little when there's something out there and I can't pull myself away. :)
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Quoting Seastep:
Good afternoon 456


Afternoon my friend, I'm hoping you had a more interesting day than the blog has :)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I'm out for now.
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Good afternoon 456
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Good Afternoon all

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting reedzone:


Hurricane Season will be over in 2 months ;)


yeah, I know when it officially ends (ha ha)....just seems that by wind shear,mjo, etc.....things don't seem to be in play. Is any of this suppose to change anytime soon?
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
hey Jerry!
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180. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
aw

I killed the blog again
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47046
179. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


"Pepeng" (19W) CMC model track takes it near northern Philippines.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47046
Okay, gone for a while...
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/loop-rgb.html

South S E of Baja: "insta-TD"?
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176. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Storm 19W (Pre-PEPENG)

---
PAGASA tropical cyclone watch!!
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47046
Quoting NEwxguy:


LOL,my tropical season is over,but still interesting to see if anything forms south,next month I start watching off the east coast for my own storms.


Yep, it's about that time, huh?
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Quoting Floodman:


We may see a a change in pattern with the MJO due to turn upward; typically it's about this time of year that you see features forming further south and west...but why am I telling YOU that? LOL


LOL,my tropical season is over,but still interesting to see if anything forms south,next month I start watching off the east coast for my own storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
looking at the satellite images of the atlantic,and it looks more like a november pattern then september,not going to see much organizing in that kind of pattern


We may see a a change in pattern with the MJO due to turn upward; typically it's about this time of year that you see features forming further south and west...but why am I telling YOU that? LOL
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Quoting tropics21:
shear is the name of the game nada


Shear relaxes over the next 36 to about 10knts; it's only a pocket but it does get better further west as the week progresses
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Looks like a good chance of sever storms setting up for Thursday over parts of Kanasa, Oklahoma and Texas. Could be a very intresting day.
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looking at the satellite images of the atlantic,and it looks more like a november pattern then september,not going to see much organizing in that kind of pattern
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN VA INTO CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
Radar FCX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
167. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
tornadofan yup, that I am just posting the main JMA advisories (06z, 12z, 18z, and 00z) on my blog not the intermediate ones.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47046
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Afternoon All.

Any recent info on 14N 69W? Looks suspect
shear is the name of the game nada
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
HGW - the WPAC has you busy all the sudden, eh?
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164. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 28SEPT)
==========================================

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 9.0N 152.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west at 15 knots

---
JTWC 18W with JMA data.. still 25 kts (10 min)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47046
Quoting pearlandaggie:


don't read too much into my post...it wasn't a prediction, just poking fun at the lack of coherence in the original post since the word "over" was omitted! LOL


I figured; you're one of the level-headed ones in here, dude!
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Quoting NRAamy:
the hippo is on vacation....she took my credit card and flew to Tahiti....damn her....


Howdy Amy...so why didn't you go with her? You could use some down time, huh?
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161. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Nadi Meteorological Services
Marine Bulletin
6:00 AM FST September 29 2009
==================================

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 03S 160E TO LOW (92P) [1000HPA] NEAR 04S 165E TO 06S 175W 08S 170W 11S 160W 15S 154W 20S 151W 25S 151W SLOW MOVING.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47046
First front of the year coming. Low 80's on Wednesday. Low humidity, zero chance of rain, 100% chance of golf. wooo!!!


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Quoting Seastep:


Afternoon. Is interesting looking but, shear..

Link


Thanks for the response. No time to look myself. Shear Rules.
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158. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Chief Meteorological Forecast
17:30 PM IST September 28 2009
=================================

The low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood persists
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47046
My dewpoint is still at 71, but it's much better than it has been.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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