Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

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The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

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257. Skyepony (Mod)
Check the OFCL wave forecast.. the red there is over 15ft.

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Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Dan,
Tough call, not knowing the terrain, but leaving a solid structure during a storm is almost never a good idea. They must allow themselves an escape route if water rises too far (common in LA to keep an axe in the attic for that purpose). I also noticed the forecast track seems to take the storm somewhat north of Da Nang which could mean a lower or even negative surge - though again, not knowing the landscape…We wish them the best of luck, please keep us advised…


Update:
Was just talking to my friends. Found out their family lives on and Island (oh crap) in the middle of a river about 4 miles from the coast. Coordinates roughly 15.52N 108.21E
Car flooded already and no boat. Concrete 2 story house (ceilings about 10 foot high). Three different houses. They say they can't get off the island now. I've given them all the info I can about Ketsana plus preparation tips (considering the situation, not much), such as be prepared to go through the roof.
This just sucks.
Will keep everyone informed.
Thanks, Dan
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255. Skyepony (Mod)
mm5E shows a small area near Da Ning with 2-3m
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254. Skyepony (Mod)
Offical surge worst is suppose to be 1-2m. 2m where your friend is.

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253. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON KETSANA (T0916)
9:00 AM JST September 29 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ketsana (960 hPa) located at 15.7N 109.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-southwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in south quadrant
325 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.8N 108.0E - 45 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.5N 106.8E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Orca blog of the year, could be on to something.
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Quoting tropics21:
Different Years different conditions this year no IMO
Agreed, this is an unusually different season overall, from the typical Atlantic season we are used to.
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
Quoting PcolaDan:


I need some help QUICK if anybody has info. I just talked to the family across the street and their family's house is about 10 min from the coast in Da Nang. The water they have in the house already is SALT WATER, which means surge is already starting. They think because they have a concrete house they are safe (think winds) but you and I know better when it comes to surge. Anyone with surge info?
Thanks, Dan


Hi Dan,
Tough call, not knowing the terrain, but leaving a solid structure during a storm is almost never a good idea. They must allow themselves an escape route if water rises too far (common in LA to keep an axe in the attic for that purpose). I also noticed the forecast track seems to take the storm somewhat north of Da Nang which could mean a lower or even negative surge - though again, not knowing the landscape…We wish them the best of luck, please keep us advised…
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Good evening...
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Quoting PcolaDan:


I just talked to a friends across the street that has family in Vietnam. They just talked to them and there is already water in the house. In their case that is ten feet high just to get into the house. This house is concrete so should survive any winds. Flooding is another story. They don't know when they will be able to make contact after the storm passes through.


I am not an expert, I would advise your friends in Vietnam to seek higher ground if possible!! The N fetch off the S China Sea will only get worse!!!
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with the step up where seeing now and i dont see this leting up any time soon i think hurricane season is overe

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246. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY KETSANA 0916 (0916) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC
00HR 15.5N 109.4E 965HPA 35M/S
30KTS 500KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 15.5N 106.5E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 15.5N 103.5E 1002HPA 12M/S=

--
70 kts from China Meteorological Administration office
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
245. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
240. somemalayguy117 12:13 AM GMT on September 29, 2009

And 19W/27W is now looking like a TS.

----------------------------

where you getting "27W" from?

and yes officially 19W is a tropical storm, just not named by JMA yet since it still has 30 kts so far. (though Palma may be issued later this hour or in 6 hrs).
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Taz, Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Depression 21 is 19W


ok
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WoW look at the Shear forecast 3 days out. This can't be the end of September. The Shear forecast looks more like the end of November!

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242. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Taz, Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Depression 21 is 19W
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
LOL oh there it is.

NAMELESS 21083 11397 14134 220// 92516=

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
8.3N 139.7E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0



for wish storm???
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Will this Pacific typhoon season be 1997-esque or something?

And 19W/27W is now looking like a TS.
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238. amd
Quoting VortMax1969:
One saving grace may be that surge on the Vietnam coast may be a bit lower around the Da Nang area.


I don't think that is a savings as all the coastal areas for many miles inland are very low.



i was unaware of that. In that case, hopefully the family that PcolaDan knows is evacuating to higher ground, now.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
237. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
LOL oh there it is.

NAMELESS 21083 11397 14134 220// 92516=

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
8.3N 139.7E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
235. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
179
TCNA21 RJTD 290000
CCAA 29000 47644 KETSANA(0916) 20155 11094 12334 250// 92409=

0:00 AM UTC September 29 2009

TY Ketsana (0916) [System #20]
15.5N 109.4E
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

----
hmm no mention of Tropical Depression "21" yet.. unless it appears a little later in the hour.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
233. amd
Quoting PcolaDan:


I need some help QUICK if anybody has info. I just talked to the family across the street and their family's house is about 10 min from the coast in Da Nang. The water they have in the house already is SALT WATER, which means surge is already starting. They think because they have a concrete house they are safe (think winds) but you and I know better when it comes to surge. Anyone with surge info?
Thanks, Dan


Paper on Storm Surge (page 3 has estimated surge)

One saving grace may be that surge on the Vietnam coast may be a bit lower around the Da Nang area.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Quoting amd:


I'm not sure about the media situation in vietnam, but I assume that along the coast, the coverage will be good enough to alert the public. However, inland could be a major issue. I don't see too much weakening with this typhoon before landfall, especially as the system becomes more symmetrical. Another caveat is that storm surge is becoming more of a threat along the coast, as the storm has most definitely jogged below 16 N (Da Nang, a major city in vietnam, is located at 16 N 108.2 W).

I just hope the Vietnamese are properly prepared for this system


I tried to access their local newspapers off the web, but was unable! Google does a good job of translating their webpage, plus there is an English option at this link below to their Hydro-Meteorolgical site:

Link

It is VERY SLOW!!!
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230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (2330z 28SEPT)
===============================================
An area of convection (90W) located at 8.5N 162.9E or 530 NM west of Kwajalein Atoll. Animated infrared imagery shows deep convection consolidating about a developing low level circulation center. A 1830z SSMIS image shows deep convection forming along fragmented banding wrapping into the western side of the low level circulation center. A 0651z Quikscat Pass shows 20-25 knot unflagged winds on the southern side of an elongated circulation embedded in the favorable eastern end of the monsoon trough. Upper level analysis shows the system near an upper level anticyclone that is providing good radial outflow and low vertical wind shear

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 17-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB

---
never seen this island mention much (Kwajalein Atoll)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Sad, but probably true.
Quoting VortMax1969:
Sorry Beachy.
They're up the creek if they didn't get out of there!

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Quoting superpete:
Also don't forget to add Paloma to your list (Nov 7th-9th 2008.Direct hit on Cayman Brac as a Cat3 hurricane)
Different Years different conditions this year no IMO
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263

Link
tropicalstormrisk
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Dan,

Tell them to run! You know & I know how quickly water rises!
Quoting PcolaDan:


I need some help QUICK if anybody has info. I just talked to the family across the street and their family's house is about 10 min from the coast in Da Nang. The water they have in the house already is SALT WATER, which means surge is already starting. They think because they have a concrete house they are safe (think winds) but you and I know better when it comes to surge. Anyone with surge info?
Thanks, Dan
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Quoting amd:


I'm not sure about the media situation in vietnam, but I assume that along the coast, the coverage will be good enough to alert the public. However, inland could be a major issue. I don't see too much weakening with this typhoon before landfall, especially as the system becomes more symmetrical. Another caveat is that storm surge is becoming more of a threat along the coast, as the storm has most definitely jogged below 16 N (Da Nang, a major city in vietnam, is located at 16 N 108.2 W).

I just hope the Vietnamese are properly prepared for this system


I need some help QUICK if anybody has info. I just talked to the family across the street and their family's house is about 10 min from the coast in Da Nang. The water they have in the house already is SALT WATER, which means surge is already starting. They think because they have a concrete house they are safe (think winds) but you and I know better when it comes to surge. Anyone with surge info?
Thanks, Dan
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5PM JTWC Advisories:

Typhoon Ketsana
16.1N 109.9E
Winds:105 MPH
Movement:W at 9 MPH
Pressure:960 MB



Tropical Depression 18W
9.9N 152.7E
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:WNW at 10 MPH
Pressure:1000 MB



Tropical Storm 19W
9.2N 140.9E
Winds:40 MPH
Movement:W at 13 MPH
Pressure:998 MB



TCFA
8.5N 162.9E
Winds:30 MPH
Movement:NW at 17 MPH
Pressure:1004 MB



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Quoting druseljic:
Another question since the blog is still slow tonight.

The West Pacific is very active right now:

Link

Why are we seeing such a intense flareup for this particular region as opposed to others?

I just noticed a fourth system behind 18L!
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if any one nhas not noted that we now can uplode 10 photos at one time with are new Photo MultiUpload i ues it for the 1st time and it works vary well
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must be quiet blog is down to 24 posts per hr soon it will be down to 10 or 15 per hr
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218. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:


True. I really feel sorry for Vietnam! Typhoon Katsana has been hovering in the high CAT 2 stage all day, around 105MPH. She's moving W at about 11MPH.

Vietnam has 84 million people living there. Many small to medium sized villages scattered throughout that region of the country. There are mountains about 60MI inland and many of those villages/cities are going to experience MAJOR flash flooding.

I've never been there, from what I read, it's an emerging small third world country! The Hydro-Meteorological Centre has done a GREAT job of broadcasting advisories.

The $64,000 question is, "How many people in that impoverished region have heard and how many of them are evacuating to sturdy structures outside the danger area"? I'm not sure how often Vietnam gets hit with Typhoons, but they're GOING TO GET HIT HARD!

We need to keep them in our prayers, that they will be safe. The Typhoon is within 8-12 HRS of landfall, at the current foward speed.


I'm not sure about the media situation in vietnam, but I assume that along the coast, the coverage will be good enough to alert the public. However, inland could be a major issue. I don't see too much weakening with this typhoon before landfall, especially as the system becomes more symmetrical. Another caveat is that storm surge is becoming more of a threat along the coast, as the storm has most definitely jogged below 16 N (Da Nang, a major city in vietnam, is located at 16 N 108.2 W).

I just hope the Vietnamese are properly prepared for this system
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Many times here in South Florida a cold front literally "blows in". A few years back it was about 85 in the middle of the day, warm & sticky. I went to get my kids, and it started to cloud up, then the winds blew, gusts 30-35 mph, and in 30 minutes the temp dropped 18 degrees. Went from warm & sticky to wet and freezing in the amount of time it took to get the kids from school. Guess you can tell it stuck in my head.
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Another question since the blog is still slow tonight.

The West Pacific is very active right now:

Link

Why are we seeing such a intense flareup for this particular region as opposed to others?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL Milwalkee's temp is currently half what Phoenix is!!!
Here in middle Tennessee it is excellent, upper 60,s. cool tonight in the 40,s. If you would, explain to me what it means to (kill the blog)....
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Quoting Bordonaro:


True. I really feel sorry for Vietnam! Typhoon Katsana has been hovering in the high CAT 2 stage all day, around 105MPH. She's moving W at about 11MPH.

Vietnam has 84 million people living there. Many small to medium sized villages scattered throughout that region of the country. There are mountains about 60MI inland and many of those villages/cities are going to experience MAJOR flash flooding.

I've never been there, from what I read, it's an emerging small third world country! The Hydro-Meteorological Centre has done a GREAT job of broadcasting advisories.

The $64,000 question is, "How many people in that impoverished region have heard and how many of them are evacuating to sturdy structures outside the danger area"? I'm not sure how often Vietnam gets hit with Typhoons, but they're GOING TO GET HIT HARD!

We need to keep them in our prayers, that they will be safe. The Typhoon is within 8-12 HRS of landfall, at the current foward speed.


I just talked to a friends across the street that has family in Vietnam. They just talked to them and there is already water in the house. In their case that is ten feet high just to get into the house. This house is concrete so should survive any winds. Flooding is another story. They don't know when they will be able to make contact after the storm passes through.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Weather456:
A taste of fall/winter along the Great Lakes region

LOL Milwalkee's temp is currently half what Phoenix is!!!
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Evening everybody.

Interesting to see the board still on the first page (i.e. under 200 posts) for a workday Monday.... :o)

We had some rainy weather last night and this morning associated with a frontal passage. It still seems strange to have had most of our weather coming towards us from the NW instead of the SE. Usually we don't see that kind of pattern until November and December, when there is generally less associated rain....
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A taste of fall/winter along the Great Lakes region

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
aquak9 - good to know and thanks...
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Quoting druseljic:
I have a question if I may...

I'm in an area which is expecting a 30f degree drop by morning (no complaints) but isn't a rapid temperature change like that normally accompanied by increased winds as the front moves through? It would be nice to have a breezy cool evening here!!!
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Dakster- same here(north florida). Warm Temps, thunder, lightning, heavy rain...then it all dries up in an hour or two, and our temps plummet.

we get cold enough to snow, but the rain and the cold never come together enough.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.