Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

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The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

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307. JLPR
Quoting victoriahurricane:
The West Pacific right now looks like the twin of the pic that Pat keeps posting from 2008. 4 storms lined up in a row.


yep
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The West Pacific right now looks like the twin of the pic that Pat keeps posting from 2008. 4 storms lined up in a row.
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305. JLPR
Quoting JRRP:

the system that CMC develops is currently near 8n 20w


ah! I see
hadn't noticed that one
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304. JLPR
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303. JRRP
Quoting JLPR:
The CMC develops a low from the TW at 40W


The GFS develops a low farther east


the system that CMC develops is currently near 8n 20w
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302. xcool
RufusBaker .plz stop
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
301. JLPR
Quoting RufusBaker:
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!


no that says 7days
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None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!
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299. JLPR
The CMC develops a low from the TW at 40W


The GFS develops a low farther east

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298. Skyepony (Mod)
mikatnight~ It's all good..

Manila cam shows atleast some cars survived the floods.. Looks like Philippines maybe the ones getting nailed repeatably this year.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Tried twice to get onto the Vietnam Hydro-Meteorolgical Centre site, not happening.

Sure soon there will be a landfall and reports will slowly trickle out. Right now, hopefully God has mercy!


Latest tid-bit off the Vietnam Hydro-Meteorological Centre site as of a few minutes ago:

EMERGENCY INFORMATION (The storm 9)
Feedback 04 hours on September 29, located in the center of the storm at about 16.0 degrees North Latitude; 109.8 degrees East Business, the coast of Thua Thien-Hue - Quang Nam about 140 km to the east. In the strongest winds near the center of the storm power supply 13 (ie from 134 to 149 km per hour), shock level 14, level 15, and directly influence the waters of the provinces from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai and South Gulf of Tonkin.
NOTICE OF EMERGENCY LU SONG ON BOTH, THE SONG FROM THE Quang Tri to Phu Yen, Gia Lai and Kon Tum
NOTICE LU SONG ON BOTH, THE SONG FROM THE Quang Tri to Binh Dinh, Gia Lai and Kon Tum

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296. JRRP
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295. JLPR
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That's Ivan territory JLPR!


yep
but that's definitely no Ivan :)
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294. JLPR
Landfall very soon
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293. 7544
Quoting JLPR:
you cant deny this wave is looking a little interesting =P


and its waaay down there close to 10-8N


yeap you think it might be our next invest just in time for oct
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291. JLPR
you cant deny this wave is looking a little interesting =P


and its waaay down there close to 10-8N
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290. JRRP
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Quoting Skyepony:


MIMIC keeps the storm centered so as it moves on mimic Ketsana stays still & the land moves. You can kinda see the bounce on the RGB I posted, slowed down. If you click the sat pic~ a loop will load.


Soon as I posted that I thought, why am I trying to correct someone who obviously knows more about this stuff than me? My apologies. I apparently didn't look hard enough, and wrote before thinking...
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288. JLPR
This is the newest ascat I could find since quickscat is even older

and this is still waaaay old lol
definitely some wind shifts with the wave
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Latest Navy Sat pic shows center of Katsana not too far off the coast.

Briefly accessed the Hydro-Meteorological Centre in Vietnam. Before the web page crashed there are already 3 major warning for 3 major rivers in Vietnam. They're expecting approx 90 MPH winds at/near landfall.

I'll try to access their site and try to print their latest advisory.


90 mph sustained I assume, meaning gusts over 100mph. 100 is a major threshold. Crap starts flying big time then. Then again, Frances and Jeanne never even got to hurricane strength in PB County (PBI), and it still looked like a bomb went off around here.
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285. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting mikatnight:


It's the view that is shifting, not the storm. Note the land also "moves".


MIMIC keeps the storm centered so as it moves on mimic Ketsana stays still & the land moves. You can kinda see the bounce on the RGB I posted, slowed down. If you click the sat pic~ a loop will load.
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284. Skyepony (Mod)
That little island off of Da Nang is nearly in the eye now..

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Death toll from flooding in Philippines hits 240


Link
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Latest Navy Sat pic shows center of Katsana not too far off the coast.

Briefly accessed the Hydro-Meteorological Centre in Vietnam. Before the web page crashed there are already 3 major warning for 3 major rivers in Vietnam. They're expecting approx 90 MPH winds at/near landfall.

I'll try to access their site and try to print their latest advisory.


Tried twice to get onto the Vietnam Hydro-Meteorolgical Centre site, not happening.

Sure soon there will be a landfall and reports will slowly trickle out. Right now, hopefully God has mercy!
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281. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting PcolaDan:


What's up with that???


It's not unusual..you can see it being repelled by the land to the NW 1st & jog south. Kinda set it up for a straight on. Which many times you'll see the minuet bounce on MIMIC. The land interaction early on to the NW is why I didn't go well N of Da Nang with the forecast. TCs hate land. Still may come in a little to the N just trying to avoid it.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Ketsana on mimic~ watch it bounce off land the last few frames.


It's the view that is shifting, not the storm. Note the land also "moves".
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The MJO forecast varies for our basin over the next 2 weeks. The CFS showing downward motion, the GFS showing a nice upward motion and the EWP down the middle. The CFS, however, does not appear to be accurately reflecting the current pulse in the in the Eastern Pacific Basin nor does it show a proper transition of the MJO: showing westward propagation of this oscillation rather than eastward propagation. I am currently in favor of the statistical EWP as the GFS long-range does not accurately handle quantum precipitation. Looking out in the long-range, and making a compromise, upper level wind will be marginally favorable in the favored genesis area of the Caribbean. I believe that this season is limited to having one more storm before things really shut off with the combination of MJO downward motion and, increasing mean wind shear, and above-average 850mb winds.
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278. Skyepony (Mod)
Atleast the sun just came up..shouldn't have landfall in the dark..



I called Da Nang this time lastnight. Looking pretty close.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Ketsana on mimic~ watch it bounce off land the last few frames.


What's up with that???
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Interesting wave, Chick. Think it'll last to the WCar?
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275. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Parma (0917)
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274. Skyepony (Mod)
Ketsana on mimic~ watch it bounce off land the last few frames.
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ShearMap
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272. 7544
yeap nice convection there Chicklit maybe this is the system the gfs is showing getting all the way to the islands with alog with some other models in the last run wait and watch
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Update:
Was just talking to my friends. Found out their family lives on and Island (oh crap) in the middle of a river about 4 miles from the coast. Coordinates roughly 15.52N 108.21E
Car flooded already and no boat. Concrete 2 story house (ceilings about 10 foot high). Three different houses. They say they can't get off the island now. I've given them all the info I can about Ketsana plus preparation tips (considering the situation, not much), such as be prepared to go through the roof.
This just sucks.
Will keep everyone informed.
Thanks, Dan


Latest Navy Sat pic shows center of Katsana not too far off the coast.

Briefly accessed the Hydro-Meteorological Centre in Vietnam. Before the web page crashed there are already 3 major warning for 3 major rivers in Vietnam. They're expecting approx 90 MPH winds at/near landfall.

I'll try to access their site and try to print their latest advisory.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Update:
Was just talking to my friends. Found out their family lives on and Island (oh crap) in the middle of a river about 4 miles from the coast. Coordinates roughly 15.52N 108.21E
Car flooded already and no boat. Concrete 2 story house (ceilings about 10 foot high). Three different houses. They say they can't get off the island now. I've given them all the info I can about Ketsana plus preparation tips (considering the situation, not much), such as be prepared to go through the roof.
This just sucks.
Will keep everyone informed.
Thanks, Dan


Sounds like they're in for a rough night. Our prayers are with them in hopes their shelter holds together and keeps them safe.
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268. Skyepony (Mod)
The model calling for the higher surge wins 2nd most accurate today..

Model Performance Statistics for WP172009
Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
MM5B DECREASING 66.9 91.5 119 -1 -1
MM5E INCREASING 80.9 102.5 92.3 -1 -1
JTWC DECREASING 85.9 144 188 -1 -1
KHRM DECREASING 99.3 175.8 230.9 -1 -1

Winds look like a strong TS for your friends.. fear the surge..
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Update:
Was just talking to my friends. Found out their family lives on and Island (oh crap) in the middle of a river about 4 miles from the coast. Coordinates roughly 15.52N 108.21E
Car flooded already and no boat. Concrete 2 story house (ceilings about 10 foot high). Three different houses. They say they can't get off the island now. I've given them all the info I can about Ketsana plus preparation tips (considering the situation, not much), such as be prepared to go through the roof.
This just sucks.
Will keep everyone informed.
Thanks, Dan
Dan Was stationed there during the War the Islands in the river are gonna be under water with run off once the storm reaches the Highlands a very bad place to be as those islands in the river are not very big hopefully possibly a boat if neighbors have one
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Quoting mikatnight:


Thanks Matt, that was nice to hear.


no problem
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE IS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF L0W/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MAINLY N OF 13N AND E OF 40W. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 36W-40W. AND FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 34W-36W. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT.
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263. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
next Philippines threat, unfortunately
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262. Skyepony (Mod)
OFCL wind forecast
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Quoting tornadodude:
mikatnight: you got mail haha


Thanks Matt, that was nice to hear.
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260. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM PARMA (T0917)
9:00 AM JST September 29 2009
================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Parma (996 hPa) located at 8.3N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 09.1N 136.7E - 45 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 12.6N 132.7E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 15.2N 128.2E - 60 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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259. Skyepony (Mod)
Dan~ Shouldn't be worse than 3m..big waves on top of that. Maybe a safer higher spot on the island if they can get there.
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mikatnight: you got mail haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
257. Skyepony (Mod)
Check the OFCL wave forecast.. the red there is over 15ft.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.