Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

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The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

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357. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "22"
15:00 PM JST September 29 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marshalls Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.6N 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 12.8N 156.5E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

---
wow the numbering is going to be wierd

Typhoon 20 is 17W
Tropical Storm 21 is 19W
Tropical Depression 22 would be 20W
Tropical Depression 23 may be 18W
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Xcool, You are right. I just looked at goes east sat. An there is a big blob. Do you know what it might do? Thank you:::Star
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Be carefull what you say! the east coast must still look an wait!
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354. xcool
tacoman ook
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
352. xcool
one more storm comeing on now!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
350. xcool
looking at cmc model TWO low in gom and TWO LOW in ATL .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
349. JRRP
CMC
Link
i´m out
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6165
348. xcool
too cold for me.:
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
:) feeling good outside right now!


its cold here
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
346. xcool
:) feeling good outside right now!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
Starbucks coffee taste so good mmmmm


yessir
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
344. xcool
Starbucks coffee taste so good mmmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
.How you doin' ? .matt


I am doing well, I went on a date tonight, so that was good, :), went to starbucks because it is cold here
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
342. xcool
.How you doin' ? .matt
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Totally random, but on Daily Planet earlier I saw this guy with these packets that turned 10 L of dirty ugly flood water into clean drinking water in only 30 mins. and they're bringing enough packets to purify 1,000,000 litres to the Phillippines to aid the people caught in Ketsana. It's sort of on topic :P


that is really cool
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting xcool:
matt hey


hey
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Totally random, but on Daily Planet earlier I saw this guy with these packets that turned 10 L of dirty ugly flood water into clean drinking water in only 30 mins. and they're bringing enough packets to purify 1,000,000 litres to the Phillippines to aid the people caught in Ketsana. It's sort of on topic :P
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337. xcool


Live Conditions 12:13 AM
St Margaret Mary School
Change Tracking Station
Temp
73.5°F
Switch to Celsius
5
mphSo Far Today
Lo: 73°F Rain: 0.00" Hi: 75°F Gust: NNE 9
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
336. xcool
matt hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
334. xcool



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333. JLPR
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332. Skyepony (Mod)
19W model accuracy.. None are doing great,,

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
KHRM INCREASING 61.6 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B INCREASING 66.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E INCREASING 75.2 -1 -1 -1 -1
JTWC DECREASING 90.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
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331. Skyepony (Mod)
Storms shaped like Parma are really harder to forecast, they give models fits..

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Parma keeps moving southwest... So weird..

Satellite loop
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Check out the comments section for the Comedy
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Quoting Skyepony:
IPlay there is hope for you..



GFNI is scariest, so near....
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327. Skyepony (Mod)
IPlay there is hope for you..

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Quoting RufusBaker:
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!
Quoting RufusBaker:
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!
Idon't think so yet
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Um there is no November 31st lol

lol meant 30th..Glad someone is paying attention.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Um there is no November 31st lol


lol April, June, September and November only have 30 days.

By the way, Philippines will brace for another 2 tropical cyclones. We need help.
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Quoting tbrett:


I do not know where you live but here in the Caribbean the season is not over until Nov. 31.


Um there is no November 31st lol
Quoting RufusBaker:
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!


I do not know where you live but here in the Caribbean the season is not over until Nov. 31.
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PcolaDan, your little graphic people are great!

I hope the folks you are concerned for make out alright. Not knowing is the worst!
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Om another note the cooler weather is on my doorstep. Clouds and rain coming from the NNW.


Can't wait, they're calling for 62f tonight!
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Om another note the cooler weather is on my doorstep. Clouds and rain coming from the NNW.
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Quoting Orcasystems:

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
My last comment for the night goes to ORCA, and it is simple: If I can't get up for work tomorrow, boyo, it'll be ur fault for setting me onto your comments page..... dangerous reading, that!

'Night all!
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The West Pacific basin is going nuts.

A typhoon, a tropical storm, a tropical depression and a will-be tropical depression all at once in this area. Let's watch out for cyclone merging!

I hope my country, Philippines, will be (and must now be) prepared.

P.S. Good luck on all the warnings that will be issued this week, JTWC!
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Well it's sit and wait right now and hope my friends family is okay. Nothing to do at this point. When I left them they were going to try calling one more time to tell them to beware of flash flooding as rain hits the mountains. On that island they could catch it coming and going. Thanks for the info from you guys.
Ya'll rock.
Dan
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311. JLPR
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
let's see in the morning...good night!


night :)
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let's see in the morning...good night!
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309. JLPR
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
something to watch?


looking interesting but nothing yet
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Quoting JLPR:
something to watch?
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307. JLPR
Quoting victoriahurricane:
The West Pacific right now looks like the twin of the pic that Pat keeps posting from 2008. 4 storms lined up in a row.


yep
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.