Records rains in Philippines from Tropical Storm Ketsana kill at least 106

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped prodigious amounts of rain on the Philippine Islands Saturday, triggering flooding that killed at least 106 people and left 280,000 people homeless. The flooding was particularly bad in the capital of Manilla, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). The flooding from Ketsana was the worst in at least 42 years in Manilla, and the streets of the entire city became submerged in knee to waist deep or higher flood waters. Local news video showed dramatic footage of flood victims being swept down a suburban river on a pile of debris. Ketsana is currently over the South China Sea, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon before hitting Vietnam on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eight dissipated yesterday, and there are no threat areas to discuss today. The GFS model is forecasting development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa in about seven days time.

Jeff Masters

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Will check back in the a.m. Goodnight.
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Dakster, there is no village called Poon Tang, unless you're looking at a Borat movie... anyway, I don't see why this little low I cited above can't make something of itself.

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Quoting presslord:


My God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've spent 4 years reading this blog...and you just nailed it in one line....
Quoting 789:
thank you!


You're both welcome. Sometimes not being a met makes it easier... I too spent alot of time reading the PAGES about the MJO... Which wouldn't help 789 understand it at the moment. Keeping reading 789 and the met terms will get easier and then you can go indepth.

I am still learning a whole lot as well - and have a long long way to go.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10815
329. 789
Quoting Dakster:
789 - Madden Julien Oscillation.. In anuthsell it states whether the air is conducive or not for cyclogensis.
thank you!
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Quoting Dakster:
789 - Madden Julien Oscillation.. In anuthsell it states whether the air is conducive or not for cyclogensis.


My God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've spent 4 years reading this blog...and you just nailed it in one line....
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326. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


SO LARGE
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BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 5N33W TO 16N29W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 27W-37W AS NOTED ON THE TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

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789 - Madden Julien Oscillation.. In anuthsell it states whether the air is conducive or not for cyclogensis.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10815
Quoting juslivn:


Yup... I'm listnen.


could get interesting, the winds veer quite a bit with height
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321. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KETSANA (T0916)
9:00 AM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ketsana (975 hPa) located at 16.0N 112.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 6 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
425 NM from the center in south quadrant
375 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.6N 110.2E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.7N 107.9E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm
72 HRS: 16.7N 105.9E - Tropical Depression
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320. 789
Quoting zebralove:
Well if no one can tell me where to look for it can someone tell me what MJO stands for and what it is?
futurmets web blog has a complete vidio thats verygood
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Quoting tornadodude:
have some nice looking storms headed my way, tornado watch just to my west with some low top super cells heading this way. may see a tornado warning for a couple here in a minute, the rotation looks strong and there is a hook with one

link


Yup... I'm listnen.
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Hi, hope everyone had a great weekend.
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The record low for Lake Worth on Sept. 30 is 68 set in 1980! I like the look for this winter season!
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315. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tiyan, Guam NWS
Tropical Cyclone Warnings For "19W"
=================================

TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI...FARAULEP AND FAIS.
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have some nice looking storms headed my way, tornado watch just to my west with some low top super cells heading this way. may see a tornado warning for a couple here in a minute, the rotation looks strong and there is a hook with one

link
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313. Skyepony (Mod)
I was just eyeing Da Nang

Da Nang
Temperature: 81 F
Dew Point: 75 F
Humidity: 84%
Wind: N at 29mph
Pressure: 29.50in
Precipitation: -in
Daily Precip.: 0.00in
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It really hasn't been that bad of a summer down here. But I am hoping the winter is kick arse. Adrian, do you remember when we had a really first burst of cold air that came down the pike last year?


Yea sure do i had to be at work that morning at 5:30. That was crazy for south florida standards it really begins to get painful if your caught outside for us down here who aren't used to those cold temps.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I live in Lake Worth. The next city south of West Palm. In fact, from where I live, I could walk across the city lines in a couple of minutes.


I've been to Lake Worth. In fact I drive through it on my way to Bartow, FL...
Although I haven't had to do that drive in quite awhile.

You have had a mild summer there? I am happy you did... Down here it has been so hot that even at work with 650 tons of a/c we are hot. (The chilller has actually failed because of the heat)

I can usually cool the house off and in the middle of day, unless it is raining I can't. I want winter bad.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10815
Ketsana:


18W:


19W:
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
TWC site has us down in the lower 70's. Still a tad bit milder than what it has been.
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I live in Lake Worth. The next city south of West Palm. In fact, from where I live, I could walk across the city lines in a couple of minutes.
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This could be a major flood situation around Da Nang and Hue areas. Mountains just inland from the coast.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I was going off the WU forcasts.
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GeoffreyWPB - You are in West Palm Beach, FL?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10815
Quoting winter123:
tornadodude- you mean this? lol. South atlantic off season tropical storm!

What? Is it real?
It really hasn't been that bad of a summer down here. But I am hoping the winter is kick arse. Adrian, do you remember when we had a really first burst of cold air that came down the pike last year?
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
weather dot com says no such luck for us in South Florida... Lows in the extreme upper 70's and highs at 90...

Still Hot and Humid.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10815
highs in the upper 50's here on tuesday
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Lows in the upper 60's in Lake Worth Wednesday morning! Highs in the mid 80's. At least it's a start.


Definitely a start,hopefully during the next few weeks we'll get a break on this humid airmass over south florida. Unfortunatly the weak front located over northern florida should sag south without much fanfare as there wont be any dynamics/cold air behind it once it reaches the florida straits.
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From 2 ships near Ketsana

CMA CGM Nilgai

Last reported at 2009-Sep-27 00:00 UTC. Time now 2009-Sep-28 01:09 UTC.
Position N 1512', E 11230'.

Length 260.1 m; beam 32.3 m; draft 12.6 m.

Wind from 300 at 25 knots

Waves 2.5 meters (8 feet), 4 second period

Barometer 998.5 mb
Air temperature 26.5 C
Dewpoint 24.5 C

Bunga Pelangi Dua

Last reported at 2009-Sep-26 23:00 UTC. Time now 2009-Sep-28 01:12 UTC.
Position N 1500', E 11430'.

Length 276 m; beam 37.1 m; draft 14.1 m.

Wind from 330 at 25 knots

Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 10 second period

Barometer 1000.0 mb
Air temperature 24.0 C
Dewpoint 22.6 C
Water temperature 25.0 C
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
WOW - 60's in Lake Worth...

I hope it gets into the low 70's upper 60's in South Florida.
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Lake Worth, Fla.
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cool. thanks.
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Lows in the upper 60's in Lake Worth Wednesday morning! Highs in the mid 80's. At least it's a start and hope it's a trend.
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Quoting xcool:
Tazmanian thank.




your welcome
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
290. xcool
Tazmanian thank.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
So after reading all that on the MJO, ....
1) Is there MJO in the pacific right now that is causing all the convection hot spots creating all the storms out there right now?
2 )If the MJO is 30-60 days long does it just disapear after that like a cloud that has gone through its growth cycle and then dissipates? 3) Is the MJO going to move over the GOM and Atlantic bringing the possibility for more convection occurance to those areas?
Thanks for all the help learning here I feel like I have a new understanding of the MJO...at least I think I do.
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Good evening everyone,

I've been wondering two things lately
First, does anyone know of a link to archived australian satellite images. Speciffically, the duststorm that affected the east coast on the 23rd?

Second, what ever happened to that huge saturn-cane from 2006? Is that fade away or did it just drop out of all the news and whatnot?



hm interesting. article from 08. I think the reason its not in the news is cause it just sits there. not changing.

Link
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
Quoting amd:


i don't think that shear forecast is very accurate. For instance, they show shear in the central Caribbean currently between 9 to 18 m/s (18 to 35 kts). However, shear in some parts of the central Caribbean are greater than 60 knots currently (closer to 35 m/s).

Current Caribbean Shear Map




i don't think that shear forecast is very accurate


yup you are %100 right
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting winter123:
tornadodude- you mean this? lol. South atlantic off season tropical storm!



yeah haha thats what I was referring to, pretty funny
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Good evening everyone,

I've been wondering two things lately
First, does anyone know of a link to archived australian satellite images. Speciffically, the duststorm that affected the east coast on the 23rd?

Second, what ever happened to that huge saturn-cane from 2006? Is that fade away or did it just drop out of all the news and whatnot?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:



shear map!



i find the WU wind shear map worth less the cimss is a march more better wind shear maps
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
283. amd
Quoting xcool:



shear map!


i don't think that shear forecast is very accurate. For instance, they show shear in the central Caribbean currently between 9 to 18 m/s (18 to 35 kts). However, shear in some parts of the central Caribbean are greater than 60 knots currently (closer to 35 m/s).

Current Caribbean Shear Map
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
tornadodude- you mean this? lol. South atlantic off season tropical storm!

Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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