Records rains in Philippines from Tropical Storm Ketsana kill at least 106

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped prodigious amounts of rain on the Philippine Islands Saturday, triggering flooding that killed at least 106 people and left 280,000 people homeless. The flooding was particularly bad in the capital of Manilla, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). The flooding from Ketsana was the worst in at least 42 years in Manilla, and the streets of the entire city became submerged in knee to waist deep or higher flood waters. Local news video showed dramatic footage of flood victims being swept down a suburban river on a pile of debris. Ketsana is currently over the South China Sea, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon before hitting Vietnam on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eight dissipated yesterday, and there are no threat areas to discuss today. The GFS model is forecasting development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa in about seven days time.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 382 - 332

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Well, all local channels here, in IL. You may be north...fast...very fast into IN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:



Nah, we're on the same page on this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
"book end vortices" Pretty common in cells embedded in a squall line. Usually weak and short-lived.


ah, ok, there are several of those on radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like a nice week for you StSimons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
One cool night for us---better than none though.

Link

I would call this a series of cool nights...for the foreseeable future for us, as we are used to lows around 75.
Overnight: Clear, with a steady temperature around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 54. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 82.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
377. beell
"book end vortices" Pretty common in cells embedded in a squall line. Usually weak and short-lived.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16732
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Discovery Channel...Raging Planet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting juslivn:

Are u watching local?


no, Colts game (:, what is on it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:
TORNADO WARNING
ILC031-197-280315-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0015.090928T0249Z-090928T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
949 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

* AT 948 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG
ROTATION IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOMER GLEN...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ORLAND PARK...AND TINLEY PARK BY 955 PM...
OAK FOREST...CRESTWOOD...AND ALSIP BY 1000 PM...
MIDLOTHIAN...POSEN...MARKHAM...AND BLUE ISLAND BY 1005 PM...
PHOENIX BY 1010 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE
ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

&&


Are u watching local?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Give it time Dan...the changes will come gradually....a few degrees at a time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Sure not feeling it yet though. Ike's been promising this for couple of days now. He better be right or I'm gonna go smack him.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am actually watching a show right now called "storm chasers" ... those guys are certifiably nuts.



I'm watching Family Guy... oooo a piece of candy....oooo a piece of candy....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks more like late October or early November...



Sure not feeling it yet though. Ike's been promising this for couple of days now. He better be right or I'm gonna go smack him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
366. beell
Anybody having trouble with the SPC charts throwing up a certificate error?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16732
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am actually watching a show right now called "storm chasers" ... those guys are certifiably nuts.



haha yeah, well I plan on doing some of that this spring and summer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
362. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.4N 144.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45628
Quoting tornadodude:


I am actually watching a show right now called "storm chasers" ... those guys are certifiably nuts.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
TORNADO WARNING
ILC031-197-280315-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0015.090928T0249Z-090928T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
949 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

* AT 948 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG
ROTATION IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOMER GLEN...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ORLAND PARK...AND TINLEY PARK BY 955 PM...
OAK FOREST...CRESTWOOD...AND ALSIP BY 1000 PM...
MIDLOTHIAN...POSEN...MARKHAM...AND BLUE ISLAND BY 1005 PM...
PHOENIX BY 1010 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE
ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

&&

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
This is the LFC or "Level of Free Convection" chart. Note the lower LFC heights lined up pretty good with the cold front-providing the lift. LFC's are a lot higher to the east-meaning elevated convection. So...ya'll may be ok from the the Dorthy things.
Insert standard "opinion only disclaimer" here!



Yeah, I see that, probably just some winds, and due to the cold air coming in, we could have some hail also
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
357. beell
This is the LFC or "Level of Free Convection" chart. Note the lower LFC heights lined up pretty good with the cold front-providing the lift. LFC's are a lot higher to the east-meaning elevated convection. So...ya'll may be ok from the the Dorthy things.
Insert standard "opinion only disclaimer" here!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16732
Quoting beell:
That sounds about right, tornadodude. Once the squall line forms the risk goes down. Don't think the cold front is gonna slow down much.

Which is why imo, the storms that may get surface based out ahead of the cold front where the richer moisture is located pose the greatest "conditional" risk. And that would point to areas in southern IL. Or at least farther south than the current activity.


yeah, that makes sense. The storm near Bloomington Illinois is producing penny sized hail, but yeah, that air needs to moisten up a little more. the pressure in this area is really low
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
355. beell
That sounds about right, tornadodude. Once the squall line forms the risk goes down. Don't think the cold front is gonna slow down much.

Which is why imo, the storms that may get surface based out ahead of the cold front where the richer moisture is located pose the greatest "conditional" risk. And that would point to areas in southern IL. Or at least farther south than the current activity.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16732
Looks more like late October or early November...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
actually, the storms appear to be forming a squall line link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
beell:

I think the storms are also racing out in front of the cold front too much also, and if the cold front slows at all, then substantial moisture may move in and allow the storms to become sustained. the storms develop, move quickly, then dissipate, and then reform in the same areas again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bryant193wx:
Here is the GFS, 168hrs out.
Tropics, Very Quiet. Dang Wind Shear!
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Chicklit - I have a bunch of USNAVY friends that would disagree. They swear it is located in Vietnam...
"Poon Tang" - a euphanism for young, unaware, gullible, "sexy", females of the species Homo sapiens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
349. beell
A couple of snippets from the Meso Discussion at 9:14PM CDT this evening and the Tornado Watch issued at 8:25PM CDT


Mesoscale Discussion 2039
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP FARTHER SWD
INTO NRN AND CNTRL IL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT IS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TENDENCY FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET.

Low level moisture may be "not too bad".

Tornado Watch 745
INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NOW NEAR STL
INTO CNTRL/NRN IL STORMS LATER TONIGHT FURTHER SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
TORNADOES GIVEN FACT THAT FLOW IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SIZABLE SLY COMPONENT BENEATH 50+ KT WLY 700 MB FLOW.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16732
Huge Storm...

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is the GFS, 168hrs out.
Tropics, Very Quiet. Dang Wind Shear!
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the pressure is decently low:

Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Sep 27, 9:54 pm EDT

Fair

66 °F
(19 °C)
Humidity: 68 %
Wind Speed: S 9 MPH
Barometer: 29.53" (999.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 55 °F (13 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:


Looks pretty ripe anywhere in the S half of IL.
Ya'll stay awake!

Higher surface dewpoints trying to move in ahead of the front.


Nice theta-e ridge (a measure of instability) line up with the dewpoints.


The saving grace from tornadoes, would be if these storms remain elevated.



yeah, could be bad, I think they are having a problem sustaining updrafts, or so it appears on radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
344. beell
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, it is moving quickly, I'll try, thanks!


Looks pretty ripe anywhere in the S half of IL.
Ya'll stay awake!

Higher surface dewpoints trying to move in ahead of the front.


Nice theta-e ridge (a measure of instability) lines up with the dewpoints.


The saving grace from tornadoes, would be if these storms remain elevated.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16732
343. amd
proof of the large wind field with Tropical Storm Ketsana.

Da Nang Vietnam, about 250 miles west of the center associated with the tropical storm already has winds of 30 mph from the north with gusts of 44 mph.

Da Nang Weather

the center of soon to be typhoon Ketsana will probably end up passing just north of Da Nang at landfall.

Also a ship about 150 miles to the sse of Ketsana is reporting 41 knot winds (would like to know if these winds are 1 min or 10 min).

Safmarine Makutu
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
342. 789
Quoting zebralove:
789 I went to futuremet's blog but couldn't find any video am I just blind? could you tell me where specifically to look? thanks
soory not but if you catch futur met im sure he will link you plus what dakster said is very true positive mjo is updraft from the ocean negative is downdrating cyclone thriv on positive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You got it then... Press...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10470
Quoting juslivn:


The blog here went from 48 people to 458 in seconds....moving soooo fast. be safe.


yeah, it is moving quickly, I'll try, thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
my Dad is a retired Marine Corps Col..I was born at Quantico and raised in Jarhead World...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting presslord:
actually Dak...it's more a state of mind...


Isn't it the whole mind and body thing...

I guess this means you know why the Navy has Marines on their ships too...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10470
337. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (2300z 27SEPT)
============================================
An area of convection (90W) located at 4.1N 168.5E or 270 NM south of Kwajalein Atoll. Animated water vapor imagery shows deep convection starting to consolidate about a poorly defined albeit, developing low level circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1003 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45628
Quoting tornadodude:


could get interesting, the winds veer quite a bit with height


The blog here went from 48 people to 458 in seconds....moving soooo fast. be safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
actually Dak...it's more a state of mind...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
789 I went to futuremet's blog but couldn't find any video am I just blind? could you tell me where specifically to look? thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chicklit - I have a bunch of USNAVY friends that would disagree. They swear it is located in Vietnam...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10470
Will check back in the a.m. Goodnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 382 - 332

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
47 °F
Overcast