Records rains in Philippines from Tropical Storm Ketsana kill at least 106

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped prodigious amounts of rain on the Philippine Islands Saturday, triggering flooding that killed at least 106 people and left 280,000 people homeless. The flooding was particularly bad in the capital of Manilla, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). The flooding from Ketsana was the worst in at least 42 years in Manilla, and the streets of the entire city became submerged in knee to waist deep or higher flood waters. Local news video showed dramatic footage of flood victims being swept down a suburban river on a pile of debris. Ketsana is currently over the South China Sea, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon before hitting Vietnam on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eight dissipated yesterday, and there are no threat areas to discuss today. The GFS model is forecasting development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa in about seven days time.

Jeff Masters

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11PM Advisory from JTWC:

Typhoon Ketsana
15.8N 112.4E
Winds:75 MPH
Movement:W at 7 MPH
Pressure:975MB



Tropical Depression 18W
9.5N 155.2E
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:SW at 7 MPH
Pressure:1004 MB



Tropical Depression 19W
9.4N 144.0E
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:W at 10 MPH
Pressure:1002 MB



Winds are 1-min sustained
(Pressures are from JMA)
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What's an RI candidate?

Is it a moderate tropical cyclone which will just burst out to a Category 5 storm in a matter of hours?
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One of the causes of low global tropical activity was the cooling of the tropical atmosphere leading from the 2007-2009 La Nina. This is not the cooling of the surface air temperature, this was occurring aloft.

If El Nino intensifies over the next 6 months, this could offset and the 2010 and 2011 global tropical cyclone seasons could mirror 2004-2005 - coincidently those are names to be used for the ATL and EPAC basins.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
The W Pacific systems have so much MORE latent heat energy readily availiable than their Atlantic conterparts! Thousands of miles of deep ocean averaging 85F!! That extra energy translates into more convection, over a larger area, larger storms!!

In the Atlantic, we rate our storms at a 1 MIN max wind speed!! Another word a CAT 3 w/115 MPH winds in the Atlantic has 115MPH winds for 1 minute in a portion of the storm!!

The Japanese Meteorological Service, their typhoons are a 10 MIN max speed!! So if Typhoon Katsana has 75MPH winds, there measured for 10 minutes in portions of the storm!! There may well be 110MPH winds for 1 minute in that storm, maybe more!!!
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Quoting P451:


Have a good night....

...but one parting question: (for anyone)

Why is it that a WestPac system looks much more intense than an Atlantic system of the same intensity?

Katsana's current presentation would no doubt mirror any 115mph cat-3 Atlantic system.

Why does a WPac invest mirror an Atlantic TD? A WPac TD mirror an Atlantic TS? A WPac TS mirror an Atlantic Cat 1? - on satellite presentation of course.

Is it because the SST in the WPac is so much higher?

(as we all know you can have TStorm in winter as long as the surface temp is that much warmer than the upper level temps. Surface is 80F, upper level is 0F, TSTORM. Surface is 30F, upper level is -50F, TSTORM) <--- does this apply in some way? They're dealing with 90F SSTs - we're usually dealing with 82-85F SSTs.

Just a not-so-simple question.

And, good night.



a combinations of very high ocean heat content under the Western Pacific Warm Pool, more breathing room and a more vigorous intertropical front (the monsoon trough).

To add....

The Atlantic ITCZ is confluent in nature while the Western Pacific monsoon trough is cyclonic in nature. That is why I stress there should be a difference between the 2. The Eastern Pacific/SW Caribbean and Eastern Atlantic also has monsoon troughs that is why some eastern Atlantic waves are so vigorous and then weaken as they meet the confluent part of the Inter-tropical front.

Wilma and Mitch developed from monsoonal flow over the Western Atlantic warm pool, so that gives you an idea.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
426. jipmg
I cant wait till that dry air gets here in SFLA.. heck when that low drops to 71 (still mild) and we get that nice North east breeze, and dew points in the 50s.. oh my it will feel so good..

Anything over Low to mid 90s and dew points in the 70S.
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Quoting juslivn:
The winds are blowin cool (and fast) in Chicago. Night all.


have a good one
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The winds are blowin cool (and fast) in Chicago. Night all.
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423. jipmg
Katsana's presentation does not mirror a CAT 3, a hurricane with no eye = minimal. The gives you a clue as to how high the winds are, if it has a PIN HOLE eye that we cant see, thats a completely different story
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Typhoon Katsana looks like she is RI!! The latest Navy Sat pics show she has one heck ova' eye wall developing, all the deep convection wrapping around eye!!

There is an official Vietnam Weather Service website!! Their servers are real slow, took 10 min to load the home page, gather it's better to leave that for the locals! They do have urgent advisories out, expecting up to 90MPH winds on the coast as of the 0700HRS update, which is 4 hrs old!!

Everyone needs to pray for these people, they're going to have terrible flash flooding problems!!
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420. xcool
.2 °F
Clear
Humidity: 85%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 53 ft

Rapid Fire Updates:

Slidell, Louisiana
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Sep 27, 11:54 pm EDT

Mostly Cloudy

69 °F
(21 °C)
Humidity: 61 %
Wind Speed: SW 13 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 29.43" (996.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 55 °F (13 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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Quoting P451:
Ah, I see, yeah...I'm viewing it wrong. Just focused on the dot and not the overall region. Thanks.



Still, I think this thing is exploding. Does it not look Major to you? 115mph? I think it's next advisory will jump quite a bit.



yea the storm is intensifying..it looks like a cat 2 typhoon. If it continues then major likely.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
417. xcool
any time.


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting xcool:



HERE U GOING matt.


thanks, another front this weekend
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well if you guys want name stroms too track looks like where going too have too look at the W PAC for them
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
413. xcool



HERE U GOING matt.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
am starting too think that hurricane season is overe we got vary fall like temper comes too most of the USA and wind shear will be vary high out there with the Deep cold fronts that keep droping S
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
Quoting P451:
Weird, 456, here's the AVN, same time: 230Z



*shrugs*

*confused*



It is difficult to pick out on infrared but you can still notice it as the region of warmer temperatures

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
409. xcool
. i seeing winter coming soon guess time for my winter Clothing ready :(
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
the pressure here has dropped from 1000 mb to 996.2 mb in the last 3 hours
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Quoting P451:
Ketsana looks like a RI candidate.... and 19W has that classic "egg in a basket" look. Let's just hope it does not hatch.





19W:



It does not appear to be a pinhole eye

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
405. xcool
hi
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
402. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting beell:
That one may be elevated.
That line between Bloomington, IL and Lafayette, IN ahead of the front maybe

Thanks for the chat. Some of us ain't young college students anymore who can stay up all night!


haha it has been a good chat, have a good night.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1025 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

ILZ023-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-280430-
BENTON-FORD-IROQUOIS-JASPER-KANKAKEE-LAKE IN-NEWTON-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOWLER...GARY...GIBSON CITY...
KANKAKEE...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...VALPARAISO...WATSEKA
1025 PM CDT (1125 PM EDT) SUN SEP 27 2009

.NOW...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH HAIL...CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE LEADING EDGE OF
AT 1023 PM CDT...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM GARY TO
BEECHER TO CHATSWORTH. ANOTHER LINE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AROUND 45 MPH...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 1130 PM CDT.

$$

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400. beell
That one may be elevated.
That line between Bloomington, IL and Lafayette, IN ahead of the front maybe

Thanks for the chat. Some of us ain't young college students anymore who can stay up all night!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201


WWJP25 RJTD 280000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 982 HPA
AT 56N 169E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 56N 180E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
AT 38N 132E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 132E TO 39N 135E 38N 138E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 132E TO 34N 129E 32N 127E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 127E TO 29N 124E 27N 121E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 09.4N 144.8E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 53N 160E 60N 164E
60N 180E 38N 180E 38N 167E 49N 174E 53N 160E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 156E SW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 166E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 162E TO 40N 172E 47N 180E 48N 175W.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0916 KETSANA (0916) 975 HPA AT 16.0N 112.8E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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398. beell
Thanks, TexNowNM.
Lotta folks not into that kinda stuff during "The Season".
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
Quoting beell:
385.
I see 47 knots of 0-6km shear on that skew-t.


interesting to note that a renegade storm is developing west of Terre Haute link
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Quoting beell:


The north end of the book-end responsible for many tornado warnings (where the turning is cyclonic). Usually only at the mid-levels. Would not turn my back on one. Even a weak F! on top of your house can cause some problems.

Just wouldn't chase one in a squall line!
I'm out. (a big hooray from many I'm sure)
Take care t-dude


Actually, your shared information is very appreciated! You explain things well.
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395. beell
385.
I see 47 knots of 0-6km shear on that skew-t.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
Rest of Tonight
Breezy. Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms...then slight chance of rain showers late. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.


Monday
Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of showers 20 percent.

Monday Night
Breezy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. West winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph.
sunny
Wednesday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Wednesday Night and Thursday
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
cloudy
Friday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s.

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

Saturday Night and Sunday
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Discovery Channel...Raging Planet


If you're still watching this...

I saw this tornado from my 3rd floor apt about 2 miles away from it. Link1 Link2 In search and rescue after, I saw a Corvette bumper to bumper around a tree, and a van sticking out of a roof.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We haven't had a low below 75 in more than a week. It's been muggy as all get out atmosaggie.

And thanks, Geoffrey, is any of the cool air going to make it down to you?

Apparently yesterday was our last soak-your-shirt in 10 minutes day for us for a while. Luv a good cold (read: dry) front down here.

Not to mention the TC force-field they provide.
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A little bit...depending on who you go by...lows between upper 60's and lower 70's...Highs mid to upper 80's.
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Quoting beell:


The north end of the book-end responsible for many tornado warnings (where the turning is cyclonic). Usually only at the mid-levels. Would not turn my back on one. Even a weak F! on top of your house can cause some problems.

Just wouldn't chase one in a squall line!
I'm out. (a big hooray from many I'm sure)
Take care t-dude


cant say that I would chase one there either, take care!
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387. beell
re the errors.
Good to hear, atmo. thanks
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
386. beell
Quoting tornadodude:


ah, ok, there are several of those on radar


The north end of the book-end responsible for many tornado warnings (where the turning is cyclonic). Usually only at the mid-levels. Would not turn my back on one. Even a weak F! on top of your house can cause some problems.

Just wouldn't chase one in a squall line!
I'm out. (a big hooray from many I'm sure)
Take care t-dude
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
Quoting beell:
Anybody having trouble with the SPC charts throwing up a certificate error?

Which ones?...haven't seen any.

Little CAPE to be found and the shear almost nonexistent. Interesting that "strong rotation" would appear on radar...the soundings would not make one expect that.
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Quoting juslivn:
Well, all local channels here, in IL. You may be north...fast...very fast into IN.


well I live on West Lafayette and that squall line is headed right towards me, but it is weak right now.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am actually watching a show right now called "storm chasers" ... those guys are certifiably nuts.


Many of those same guys, especially Josh Wurman and his radar truck. routinely park in the path of hurricanes, too. Last year they were on I-45 (I think) just inland of Galveston for Ike.
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Well, all local channels here, in IL. You may be north...fast...very fast into IN.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.