Tropical Depression Eight no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2009

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Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Africa, but is not destined to threaten land, and has only about a 50/50 chance of becoming Tropical Storm Grace. While wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are right at the threshold for tropical storm formation--26°C. There is only a small amount of dry air that is interfering with the storm, but the combination of cool SSTs and moderate wind shear will make TD 8 slow to organize. By Monday, shear is expected to reach a very high 25 - 30 knots, and this should tear the storm apart.

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation elsewhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Tropical Depression Eight.

Jeff Masters

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680. cloudy0day
4:03 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
I have been a resident of 9 Florida cities and endured; Donna, Betsy, Inez, Isabel,Charlie, Frances, Jeanne, Erin, Opal, Cleo, Dawn and the "not a an offical storm system" this year in May. I am so relieved not to have added any more names to that list the remaider of this summer! I hope I can finish the season with no additions, just like to track!!!
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
679. IKE
3:57 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
678. Dakster
3:55 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Just got back and I see we are having a nice healthy discussion....

Hey Orca, does it get really cold where you are at? I know from this summer it gets really hot.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
677. fishcop
3:46 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Remaining thankful and optimistic in the Western Caribbean.
Member Since: September 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
676. Orcasystems
3:30 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting PcolaDan:


And here I am waiting for a cold front so I can actually enjoy a ride in the Jeep again. Maybe even take the bikini top off again.


thats just mean..
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
675. PcolaDan
3:20 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Greyelf:
I'm in Bellevue (basically Omaha), Nebraska. I'm already getting depressed that I need to consider garaging the convertible for the winter.


And here I am waiting for a cold front so I can actually enjoy a ride in the Jeep again. Maybe even take the bikini top off again.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
674. Cavin Rawlins
3:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
The power of rainfall
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
673. Cavin Rawlins
3:12 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They have to schedule recon the day before and their thinking at the time of scheduling recon was the system would still be offshore.

Now if you are questioning why they did not schedule recon in previous days that is valid and all I can say is that is their judgment, but to say their thinking was not logical by scheduling recon after forecast landfall is not factually correct.


Ok I guess we have to agree t disagree I do see your point but my view still remain, they should of seen there is no way where the storm was at 2am it could of made landfall at the given time.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
672. Cavin Rawlins
3:10 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Well Weather456 got a point, there is no way looking at the storm position to land at 2am that it would reach land by 1800Z. That's illogical. The reccon was to be sent near 5am. Tpp much technaicalities with that agency.


case n' point
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
670. nrtiwlnvragn
3:08 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


read my post again, whether or not the specific time was correct or not my premise was that they schedule the reccon too late.


They have to schedule recon the day before and their thinking at the time of scheduling recon was the system would still be offshore.

Now if you are questioning why they did not schedule recon in previous days that is valid and all I can say is that is their judgment, but to say their thinking was not logical by scheduling recon after forecast landfall is not factually correct.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
669. Cavin Rawlins
3:03 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Your premise was why did they schedule recon for 2 PM (it was scheduled for a noon fix with the aircraft on location at 11 AM) when they forecast landfall at 8 AM (the only specific forecasts were from the TWDs and they had a 30N 89W location at 1800Z) so it was not.


read my post again, whether or not the specific time was correct or not my premise was that they schedule the reccon too late. The storm was expected to make landfall much sooner than the reccon.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
668. nrtiwlnvragn
3:01 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


it is


Your premise was why did they schedule recon for 2 PM (it was scheduled for a noon fix with the aircraft on location at 11 AM) when they forecast landfall at 8 AM (the only specific forecasts were from the TWDs and they had a 30N 89W location at 1800Z) so it was not.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
667. CybrTeddy
3:01 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


just a healthy discussion


Just ignore Tacoman, he's a troll..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
666. Cavin Rawlins
2:56 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That is from the TWO issued at 740 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009. Previous to that the only mentions of the position of the low was in the TWDs, the previous TWOs only gave a general "onshore on Saturday" with no specific time.

I do not question you disagreeing with the NHCs planning or actions, just that it be based on the factual record.


it is....regardless of whether there was specific time or not, the recon was schedule too late. In that data you presented, the reccon was schedule 2 hours before 1800Z position, given that the storm was peaking much earlier.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
665. nrtiwlnvragn
2:54 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


I dont have one, just a piece of the TWO which I bookmarked for reference

THE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.


That is from the TWO issued at 740 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009. Previous to that the only mentions of the position of the low was in the TWDs, the previous TWOs only gave a general "onshore on Saturday" with no specific time.

I do not question you disagreeing with the NHCs planning or actions, just that it be based on the factual record.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
664. BurnedAfterPosting
2:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting P451:
14-Day SST Loop (ending sep 26)




But wait tacoman said the SSTs in the Gulf are history lol, yet they are still warming up

tacoman needs to learn physics; the GOM temps arent going to magically cool below 80 degrees that fast because of a few cold fronts.
663. Cavin Rawlins
2:46 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link?


I dont have one, just a piece of the TWO which I bookmarked for reference

THE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
661. Cavin Rawlins
2:44 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting tacoman:
you guys are crying over spilled mile if the nhc didnt name they have a dam good reason why because the low was just that a low just bringing a lot of rain and a little wind...let it go its over guys...you guys are starting to sound like reedzone...i hope he is getting his much needed rest..poor guy..


just a healthy discussion
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
660. nrtiwlnvragn
2:40 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


that was one forecast, there were forecasts for earlier landfall.


Link?
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
658. Cavin Rawlins
2:38 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Recon was scheduled for 1600Z (noon) and they never forecast an 8 AM landfall. Forecasts were for the low to be near 30N 89W at 1800Z on the 23rd.



that was one forecast, there were forecasts for earlier landfall.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
657. lawntonlookers
2:38 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


lol, well I have to disagree with you since the season is not over but most importantly my blog updates will not stop on November 30. There's lots to discuss out there.


Yes 456 "There's lots to discuss out there" and you have been doing a great job on putting some interesting items on you blog. Keep up the good work.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
656. nrtiwlnvragn
2:36 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
P451,

I agree with you 100%. I'm less confident that the NJ low was Grace, but I'm sure confident that 92L was a subtropical cyclone. They stated no reasons but SST in their outlook and even admit 92L was better organize. The MODIS shots of 92L were unbelievable.

Another thing was 90L, they scheduled a 2PM aircraft reccon to 90L but 90L was forecast by them to make landfall at 8am, which it did. Where's the logic?

PS: I'm not bashing the NHC but just stating my views on the matter.


Recon was scheduled for 1600Z (noon) and they never forecast an 8 AM landfall. Forecasts were for the low to be near 30N 89W at 1800Z on the 23rd.

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
655. Greyelf
2:35 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
I just hope it waits long enough for the trick or treaters. It always sucks when it's miserable for them.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
654. Orcasystems
2:34 PM GMT on September 27, 2009

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy from last night
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
653. Greyelf
2:34 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Oh well, not entirely surprising. Was unusually easy last winter. Figured we had it must have been saving up.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
652. Orcasystems
2:33 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Greyelf:

Hm...Maybe that's what I should ask hubby to do for Xmas....


It makes SWMBO happy... which makes me happy. I have found that when the SO is not happy... I am seldom allowed to be happy.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
650. Greyelf
2:29 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


I book a flight to Mexico every January...

Hm...Maybe that's what I should ask hubby to do for Xmas....
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
648. Cavin Rawlins
2:25 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting TomSal:
To Weather 456 and you other presenters of good information and polite explainations - thanks. Yes, you all do provide a learning experience - thanks, again. And I hope no hurricane ever again smashes into inhabited land creating additional human misery.


I cannot tell you how easier that would make my job. Never having to worry about the human cost of these disasters. But Jim Cantore once said, if you like to track TCs but they do immense damage to life/property. Even though its not your fault, always help out, that much you owe them.

And a perfect example was Ivan on our neighbor to the south - Grenada.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
647. Greyelf
2:24 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
646. TomSal
2:20 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


well said. Every single day they post the TWO despite many of us already know where to find it and that we already know the tropics are quiet, just to insistently complain the blog is dead, the season's dead, the blog is dead, the season dead.

I hope that many future mets/weather junkies did more learning this season than complain, I know I learned alot and I'm sure many did.
To Weather 456 and you other presenters of good information and polite explainations - thanks. Yes, you all do provide a learning experience - thanks, again. And I hope no hurricane ever again smashes into inhabited land creating additional human misery.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
645. Orcasystems
2:19 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Greyelf:
I'm in Bellevue (basically Omaha), Nebraska. I'm already getting depressed that I need to consider garaging the convertible for the winter.


Do what I do Greywolf... I book a flight to Mexico every January... gives me something to look forward to when the rainy season (occasional Flurries) start here.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
643. Cavin Rawlins
2:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting hunkerdown:
gross negligence ? come on, be real. if we are talking about whether it should have had a name or not is not gross negligence nor would it have changed anything. All weather agencies recognized its existence as a weather system so we are not talking like there was no knowledge of it being there. This is 2009, not 1899, if people chose to ignore it because the NHC did not give it a name, then they they are the ones that were negligent.


you gotta point. The system did not have a name but I think it was mentioned in some NWS area discussions. But name does add power and attention to systems.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
642. Greyelf
2:17 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
I'm in Bellevue (basically Omaha), Nebraska. I'm already getting depressed that I need to consider garaging the convertible for the winter.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
641. Orcasystems
2:17 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


lol, well I have to disagree with you since the season is not over but most importantly my blog updates will not stop on November 30. There's lots to discuss out there.


Thank you 456...
I agree with you... its not over, and there is still along ways to go until it is.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
639. hunkerdown
2:15 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting tacoman:
if you say so 456 but like im telling you as sure as GOD made and apple the season is over 6 named storms...thats it...you tell me where will the 7th storm form cant wait to hear this lol...
IKE, as you wre saying...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
638. Greyelf
2:14 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Well, since you all want something to discuss in the blog..how about predicting how much crappy snow I'm probably going to have to deal with this winter? I want to know now how depressed I'm likely to get.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
637. hunkerdown
2:14 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:
@P451

92L i Might understand, due to SSTs.
But 90L was gross negligence IMO (not NHC bashing), people's lives might have been at stake, it should have been named, I know people are going to say 'oh, they should have known bad weather was coming and to be aware so it wouldn't have made a difference if it was named or not' well thats the thing, it would because people will tend to treat it like an afternoon thunderstorm for an unnamed system but a named Tropical Storm, thats a different deal and people prepare, ect.
gross negligence ? come on, be real. if we are talking about whether it should have had a name or not is not gross negligence nor would it have changed anything. All weather agencies recognized its existence as a weather system so we are not talking like there was no knowledge of it being there. This is 2009, not 1899, if people chose to ignore it because the NHC did not give it a name, then they they are the ones that were negligent.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
635. Cavin Rawlins
2:12 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting tacoman:
weather 456 there wont be much to update man its over the season is officially over guy...you have to gear up for 2010...


lol, well I have to disagree with you since the season is not over but most importantly my blog updates will not stop on November 30. There's lots to discuss out there.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
633. Cavin Rawlins
2:06 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
My blog is updated

The power of rainfall; Tropical Update

I will have the outlook for the remainder of cane season 09 later this week.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
631. Cavin Rawlins
2:04 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting sporteguy03:
Why must some bloggers find it necessary to say the blog is dead? One could tell from the amount of posts that it is not active, but isn't a blog comments really for informative posts on a weather topic? Also why post something for the sake of posting it if you don't really need to post it?

Back to lurking again.


well said. Every single day they post the TWO despite many of us already know where to find it and that we already know the tropics are quiet, just to insistently complain the blog is dead, the season's dead, the blog is dead, the season dead.

I hope that many future mets/weather junkies did more learning this season than complain, I know I learned alot and I'm sure many did.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
630. hunkerdown
2:02 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Yes it is.

Oh well...I've got other things to do.

L8R.

EDIT>>>Yeah, it's certain bloggers fault the blog and the Atlantic is dead.

Grow up.
now thats the truth
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.