Heavy rains kill seven in Georgia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2009

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Very heavy rains exceeding fifteen inches have soaked the Atlanta, Georgia region over the past two days, triggering widespread major flooding. Record flood levels have been observed on seven rivers and creeks in the Atlanta area, breaking records that had been set as long ago as 1919. In one case, the new flood record (for Utoy Creek near Atlanta), was more that ten feet above the previous record, with the creek still rising. The Chattahoochee River was one of the rivers that rose to record levels, and flood waters from the Chattahoochee crested over the I-285 bridge in western Atlanta, forcing closure of the expressway. At least seven people have been killed, according to ajc.com, with at least six people still missing.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Atlanta, Georgia region ending on September 22. More than 15 inches (white colors) had fallen in and around Atlanta.

A list of the records set so far:

Noonday Creek near Woodstock 19.66 ft 21/530 PM, old record 16.30 ft (07/11/2005)

Nickajack Creek at Mableton 19.30 ft 22/215 am, old record 16.60 ft (07/11/2005)

North Fork Peachtree Creek at Atlanta 18.07 ft 21/715 PM, old record 17.70 ft (09/16/2004)

Utoy Creek near Atlanta 27.04 ft 22/715 am, old record 16.86 ft (05/06/2003)...still rising

Chattahoochee River at Whitesburg 29.58 ft 21/1015 PM, old record 29.11 ft (12/11/1919)

Suwanee Creek at Suwanee 14.30 ft 21/645 PM, old record 12.04 ft (10/05/1996)

Yellow River at Lithonia 25.50 ft 22/515 am, old record 17.53 ft (05/07/2003)... nearly steady

Yellow River near Conyers 20.80 ft 22/730 am, old record 16.36 ft (07/08/2005) below Milstead...still rising

Chattahoochee River at Franklin 28.71 ft 22/715 am, old record 28.40 ft (12/15/1919)...still rising

The strong flow of moist air from the southeast that fueled the heavy rains has diminished today, and no widespread heavy rains will affect northern Georgia over the next few days. However, there will be some scattered thunderstorms in the region the next two days that will dump heavy downpours over local areas, and these thunderstorms will keep flood waters from receding much along some flooded rivers and creeks. It is possible that some additional moisture from the remains of Hurricane Fred will affect northern Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and Thursday, boosting rainfall totals from these scattered thunderstorms.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 22, 1989. Hugo was over Ohio at this time, and had finally been declared extratropical.

Twenty years ago today
Hurricane Hugo plowed through the center of South Carolina on September 22, 1989, reaching the North Carolina border 140 miles inland by 8am EDT. Amazingly, Hugo remained at hurricane strength for its entire passage through South Carolina--a full eight hours. The hurricane caused massive damage to forests, buildings, and power lines along the way, killing thirteen South Carolinans in total. Charlotte, North Carolina, over 200 miles inland, and a place of refuge for many South Carolinans that fled the storm, received sustained winds of 69 mph from Hugo--just below the 74-mph threshold of hurricane strength. Hugo turned northwards and roared through Virginia, where it killed six people, then into West Virginia and Ohio, where it was finally declared extratropical at 2pm EDT on the 22nd. The hurricane claimed its final victim near Buffalo, New York, when winds from Hugo toppled a tree onto a motorist.

In all, Hugo did $7 billion in damage to the continental U.S., and $10 billion over its entire path ($17.6 billion in 2009 dollars), making it the most costly hurricane ever at that time. The final death toll was 56.


Figure 3. Maximum wind gusts recorded from Hurricane Hugo of 1989. Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph (green hatched areas) were recorded all the way to the North Carolina border, 140 miles inland. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of our reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Suwanee Creek Greenway flooding (takabanana)
Suwanee Creek Greenway flooding

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Quoting Orcasystems:


I have one I really want to use.. but its not worth the 24 it would garner :)


LMAO. And on that note I'm off.

Peace out
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting iceman55:
kuppenskup how


If you look at recent history anytime we have had a Elnino season cold fronts have moved further South from Canada then they normally would and they seem to be more powerful(I dont know why that is but it just is-check 1993 storm of the yr, 1996 where Florida had all those tornadoes and again in the late 1990's also in the early-late 70's & 1983-1984 as well-every time we had a elnino yr the winters had a lot more punch to them and dipped further south) which means more violent weather and very cold temps for the south.
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I swear that xfred is a trip. Its been to NC,SC.GA, and Fla lmao
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I think I'm going to start a new tradition around here.
.
.
.
GOODNIGHT FRED.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I have one I really want to use.. but its not worth the 24 it would garner :)


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Quoting PcolaDan:


HEY!


I have one I really want to use.. but its not worth the 24 it would garner :)
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Quoting JRRP:

jajjajajajaja


haha how are you this evening?
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694. JRRP
Quoting tornadodude:
anyone see ex fred?


jajjajajajaja
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Quoting Orcasystems:




HEY!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting tornadodude:


have a good one


No please dont go to sleep, if you go to bed what am I gonna do?
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Quoting mikatnight:
Well it's past my bedtime and I've (thankfully) got work for tomorrow. G'nite.


have a good one
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I think it
Quoting iceman55:
Summer Ends - Has the 2009 Season Ended?



Autumn arrives across the Northern Hemisphere at 4:18PM CDT today, signaling a transition from the hot, steamy days of summer to the arrival of cold fronts across the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the first such cold front will reach the northern Gulf today. It’s weak, but it’s a sign of things to come. In another week or two, cold fronts will begin moving out across the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast U.S. Coast weekly. With each passing cold front, wind shear and dry air will spill out across the Gulf of Mexico and Southwest Atlantic, diminishing the chances of tropical development in the region and gradually bringing the 2009 hurricane season to an end.

To say that the 2009 hurricane season has been quiet would be an understatement. Except for a brief burst of activity in late August and early September, the Atlantic Basin has been quite a hostile environment for tropical cyclones. Only Bill and Fred would be able to find a small area of favorable conditions to allow each to become a hurricane. The other four named storms, Ana, Claudette, Danny and Erika, would struggle as weak, sheared tropical storms. Both hurricanes reached major hurricane intensity, but only Bill made landfall in a much-weakened state over eastern Newfoundland.
Is the 2009 season over? I think it’s a little too early to make such a statement. Last year, major hurricanes Omar and Paloma developed in the Caribbean Sea in October and November. But the Caribbean has been dominated by high wind shear and sinking air since June, and there’s no sign that the environment is changing as of late September. There may be periods over the next month when wind shear will relax enough across the Gulf of Mexico or the Southwest Atlantic east of the Bahamas to allow for something to develop. The steering currents of late September through October typically would take late-season developments either toward the northeast Gulf (Florida), the East U.S. Coast, or the northern Caribbean.

I think that another 1 or 2 named storms will probably develop over the next 3-4 weeks and that will be it for 2009. The 2009 hurricane season will be one of those seasons that no one remembers, and that’s not a bad thing.


I think it's all over Iceman, last yr we did have Omar & Paloma but that was not during a Elnino season. I agree we might have 1-2 more storms left in the season but we will see a lot of violent and cold weather in the south this winter like any Elnino year. Watch temperatures in the South Florida area to get in the upper 20's-low 30's at certain times of the winter.
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Well it's past my bedtime and I've (thankfully) got work for tomorrow. G'nite.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting mikatnight:


Alas, I cannot take credit for any of them. They are all image links. Orca started it all though.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
hey iceman, dont forget to cite your sources
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Quoting mikatnight:


It never occurred to me that someone would ‘til I heard that, well, someone else had done it. But having conversations with themselves? That’s a new one on me.


ok, well one individual suspects that I do that, and I assure you guys I dont, it is a funny thought tho
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Quoting tornadodude:


I am impressed haha

btw, do any of you think that I use multiple handles?


It never occurred to me that someone would ‘til I heard that, well, someone else had done it. But having conversations with themselves? That’s a new one on me.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
The southern end(south of Cuba) of what I believe to be the tropical wave, which was connected to Fred is interesting looking tonight. Plenty of spin in the mid levels. Plenty of hot water to work over, and most important, no persistent ULL's to spoil the party.

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anyone see ex fred?

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Quoting PcolaDan:

You have no idea how long I have been waiting to use that one! BTW, lucky NCIS had "THE FORCE" on their side.


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Any faith no more fans out there?
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Quoting mikatnight:
unbelievable! lol


I am impressed haha

btw, do any of you think that I use multiple handles?
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unbelievable! lol
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting mikatnight:
Dan, you absolutely crack me up with those damn emo-whatchamacallits. You appear to have an endless supply...

You have no idea how long I have been waiting to use that one! BTW, lucky NCIS had "THE FORCE" on their side.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Dan, you absolutely crack me up with those damn emo-whatchamacallits. You appear to have an endless supply...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting tornadodude:


sorry, Ive been searching the internet and can't find anything about it



They say it's something that's holding tropical activity from forming and it has nothing to do with elnino. It's Yovan maybe im misspelling it, does anyone know what it is?
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Quoting kuppenskup:
Is this what prevented storms forming off africa this yr was the yovan factor?


Dr. Steve Lyons from the WC wrote about the quiet season this year in his blog yesterday. Here's the link.
Pretty nice article.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting mikatnight:
Now back to NCIS...where was I? Oh yeah, the surprise ending! Whoever in their wildest dreams would of thought aliens from outer space would end up saving the crew's bacon...totally caught me off guard.


You and me both, And Ziva, who knew ...
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Well to make tonight interesting, a certain blogger suspects that I use multiple handles on this blog.
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Quoting kuppenskup:
Is this what prevented storms forming off africa this yr was the yovan factor?


sorry, Ive been searching the internet and can't find anything about it
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Now back to NCIS...where was I? Oh yeah, the surprise ending! Whoever in their wildest dreams would of thought aliens from outer space would end up saving the crew's bacon...totally caught me off guard.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Is this what prevented storms forming off africa this yr was the yovan factor?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Saved it to my faves.

ditto
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Quoting Orcasystems:


???
I was just pointing out that there is already an excellent tutorial blog available. Its a collaboration from a couple members..and I have actually read the whoolllleeee thing.


Saved it to my faves.
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Yovan
level: populated place
location: Khatlon, Tajikistan
coordinates: 38° 18' 47" North, 69° 2' 35" East


link
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Orca - you can please some of the people...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting kuppenskup:
They were refering to Yovan off the african coast


I'm not sure, are you sure it is spelled correctly?
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They were refering to Yovan off the african coast
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Seems like you are in a bad mood tonight Orca.


???
I was just pointing out that there is already an excellent tutorial blog available. Its a collaboration from a couple members..and I have actually read the whoolllleeee thing.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


OR you could just go here where its already been done by a Blog Member

quasigeostropic Weather 101


Never have seen this blog before, but it looks great.

But I will be using my own graphics and will be explaining everything in easy to understand words that would help a laymen understand something as complex as tropical weather just like I have been doing for the past year.
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Now that the tropics are quiet(for now at least) does anyone know what yovan means?
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655. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP172009
3:00 AM UTC September 23 2009
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 17E (1006 hPa) located at 15.7N 115.7W or 545 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 16.4N 116.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
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Seems like you are in a bad mood tonight Orca.
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Quoting presslord:
...yea...but I'm a HOT man in a dress...


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Front page for the lesson Blogs

1)This blog-The art of forecasting, quickscat interpretation
2)Satellite interpretation
3)Forecasting intensity, track, size of tropical cyclones, Fujiwhara conditions(still under construction)
4)Using computer models, forecasting forward speed, understanding gradient concepts, forecasting near land
5)Jetstream mechanics
6)Forecasting wind shear, SSTs
7)Interpreting weather maps and understanding important climatological signals to forecast long term hurricane behavior
8)Understanding extratropical, subtropical, tropical storms and what they mean in terms of forecasting
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Quoting 789:
will be appreciated ! thank you


OR you could just go here where its already been done by a Blog Member

quasigeostropic Weather 101
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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