Heavy rains kill seven in Georgia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2009

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Very heavy rains exceeding fifteen inches have soaked the Atlanta, Georgia region over the past two days, triggering widespread major flooding. Record flood levels have been observed on seven rivers and creeks in the Atlanta area, breaking records that had been set as long ago as 1919. In one case, the new flood record (for Utoy Creek near Atlanta), was more that ten feet above the previous record, with the creek still rising. The Chattahoochee River was one of the rivers that rose to record levels, and flood waters from the Chattahoochee crested over the I-285 bridge in western Atlanta, forcing closure of the expressway. At least seven people have been killed, according to ajc.com, with at least six people still missing.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Atlanta, Georgia region ending on September 22. More than 15 inches (white colors) had fallen in and around Atlanta.

A list of the records set so far:

Noonday Creek near Woodstock 19.66 ft 21/530 PM, old record 16.30 ft (07/11/2005)

Nickajack Creek at Mableton 19.30 ft 22/215 am, old record 16.60 ft (07/11/2005)

North Fork Peachtree Creek at Atlanta 18.07 ft 21/715 PM, old record 17.70 ft (09/16/2004)

Utoy Creek near Atlanta 27.04 ft 22/715 am, old record 16.86 ft (05/06/2003)...still rising

Chattahoochee River at Whitesburg 29.58 ft 21/1015 PM, old record 29.11 ft (12/11/1919)

Suwanee Creek at Suwanee 14.30 ft 21/645 PM, old record 12.04 ft (10/05/1996)

Yellow River at Lithonia 25.50 ft 22/515 am, old record 17.53 ft (05/07/2003)... nearly steady

Yellow River near Conyers 20.80 ft 22/730 am, old record 16.36 ft (07/08/2005) below Milstead...still rising

Chattahoochee River at Franklin 28.71 ft 22/715 am, old record 28.40 ft (12/15/1919)...still rising

The strong flow of moist air from the southeast that fueled the heavy rains has diminished today, and no widespread heavy rains will affect northern Georgia over the next few days. However, there will be some scattered thunderstorms in the region the next two days that will dump heavy downpours over local areas, and these thunderstorms will keep flood waters from receding much along some flooded rivers and creeks. It is possible that some additional moisture from the remains of Hurricane Fred will affect northern Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and Thursday, boosting rainfall totals from these scattered thunderstorms.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 22, 1989. Hugo was over Ohio at this time, and had finally been declared extratropical.

Twenty years ago today
Hurricane Hugo plowed through the center of South Carolina on September 22, 1989, reaching the North Carolina border 140 miles inland by 8am EDT. Amazingly, Hugo remained at hurricane strength for its entire passage through South Carolina--a full eight hours. The hurricane caused massive damage to forests, buildings, and power lines along the way, killing thirteen South Carolinans in total. Charlotte, North Carolina, over 200 miles inland, and a place of refuge for many South Carolinans that fled the storm, received sustained winds of 69 mph from Hugo--just below the 74-mph threshold of hurricane strength. Hugo turned northwards and roared through Virginia, where it killed six people, then into West Virginia and Ohio, where it was finally declared extratropical at 2pm EDT on the 22nd. The hurricane claimed its final victim near Buffalo, New York, when winds from Hugo toppled a tree onto a motorist.

In all, Hugo did $7 billion in damage to the continental U.S., and $10 billion over its entire path ($17.6 billion in 2009 dollars), making it the most costly hurricane ever at that time. The final death toll was 56.


Figure 3. Maximum wind gusts recorded from Hurricane Hugo of 1989. Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph (green hatched areas) were recorded all the way to the North Carolina border, 140 miles inland. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of our reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Suwanee Creek Greenway flooding (takabanana)
Suwanee Creek Greenway flooding

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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Weak 850Vort popping up @ 18N 71W



Any convection there?
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:
The image below shows a 40 day forecast for areas of sinking (orange) and rising (green) motion in the atmosphere. The time period is specified on the right part of the image with the first section representing current conditions (analysis) and the other 8 sections representing forecast for 5 day periods going into the future from the top down.

Sinking air (orange) continues to dominate over the Atlantic for the first two forecast periods through October 1 (Negative MJO). Slowly the green area (rising motion - positive MJO) makes its way from the Pacific into the Caribbean and then into Atlantic through the middle and end of October. Thus, we may expect some activity to flare in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean in the first half of the month and then into the rest of the Atlantic later in the month.

Although El Nino has made shear higher than normal through the hurricane season, particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, the positive phase of the MJO can act to lessen the overall shear pattern and there will likely be a few areas of favorable conditions for storms to develop in through the month of October.



You have to be careful when you use the Empirical wave propagation scheme for the MJO. It assumes that the MJO is a perfect oscillation. If you look at the dynamic models like the CFS and GFS, they tell a different story.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
El Nino! El Nino! ...he's our guy!
Makes 'canes whither and die!
If not for his warm effect
A coastal town might get wrecked!
I'm glad for him! 'Cane lovers, just cry.


I don't want to sound mean but isn't that contradicting yourself? I mean are you not a storm-chaser. Didn't you went to the Baja and Bermuda for Jimena and Bill.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all


Aloha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
Good evening all
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El Nino! El Nino! ...he's our guy!
Makes 'canes whither and die!
If not for his warm effect
A coastal town might get wrecked!
I'm glad for him! 'Cane lovers, just cry.
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Link


remains of xfred not much of a punch
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whew. Glad you saw the humor, Ike. Even if it IS due east of me.

Nothin' out there, twiddles thumbs, humm-de-dumm..
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It was a question, hence the question mark?

If you follow the link provided, you see rotation S of Jamacia, albeit not at the surface yet, interesting.
Nothing will come of it IMO
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341. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:


yep
thanks ike
remember that question i asked you last week about flood insurance?
i called my insurance company and they said if your roof is damaged and you get rain damage because of that its considered wind driven rain and would be covered under regular homeowners and not fllod


Sounds good.


Quoting aquak9:


Fred's remains are blowing up??

That's disgusting.


LOL.
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Quoting IKE:


If you're asking about the convection off of the NC/SC coasts, I would say...yes, it's his remains.


Fred's remains are blowing up??

That's disgusting.
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Quoting IKE:


If you're asking about the convection off of the NC/SC coasts, I would say...yes, it's his remains.


yep
thanks ike
remember that question i asked you last week about flood insurance?
i called my insurance company and they said if your roof is damaged and you get rain damage because of that its considered wind driven rain and would be covered under regular homeowners and not fllod
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHEASTERN WILLACY COUNTY 6 MILES WEST OF PORT
MANSFIELD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WILLAMAR BY 440 PM CDT.
PORFIRIO BY 500 PM CDT.
SANTA MONICA BY 515 PM CDT.
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337. IKE
Mobile,AL. long-term discussion....

"LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST AS THE
UPPER CYCLONE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST
SUPPORTING ANOTHER FRONTOGENETIC FEATURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. AT THE
MOMENT THE THE UPPER TROUGH IS CALCULATED BY GFS TO BECOME STATIONARY
OR RETROGRADE WEST SO BY THE GFS...THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING MUCH IF
ANY COOL DRY AIR AT FIRST BUT INSTEAD BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
CONVECTIVE RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

THE EURO MODEL TELLS A DIFFERENT TALE, BRINGING A STRONG WINTER-LIKE
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE REGION AN MAKING A CLEAN EXIT. THE SITUATION
NEEDS TO BE EVALUATED OVER TIME ON WHETHER THE MODEL CALCULATIONS
CONVERGE.

POPS REBOUND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT AREA WIDE. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
THE STRONGER FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES."
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Hey!


how are you doing?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
Can anybody get on Tropics Chat?
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332. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
but again in all fairness to me my question was addressed to ike and i was asking if it was FredEx TRYING to blow up


If you're asking about the convection off of the NC/SC coasts, I would say...yes, it's his remains.
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yeah i have had .78 inches of rain in about a half hour in new orleans
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Couple of hours old, but....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
229 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

GAC045-057-067-077-089-097-117-121-135-149-223-247-231215-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FA.W.0058.090922T1829Z-090923T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
229 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
FORSYTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
ROCKDALE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT WEDNESDAY

* AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL RAIN HAD MOVED OUT OF THE ATLANTA
METROPOLITAN AREA. MANY OF THE SMALLER CREEKS AROUND THE AREA ARE
BEGINNING TO RECEDE...THOUGH MANY ARE STILL IN MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOOD. THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEARING
THEIR CREST. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WATER CONTINUES TO RECEDE. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY
SLOW THE RATE OF FALL FOR RIVERS AND MAY CAUSE SOME CREEKS TO
RISE AGAIN. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV...OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THE SITUATION.

* SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MOST TRIBUTARIES OF
THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER INCLUDING SNAKE CREEK...DOG RIVER...
SWEETWATER CREEK...UTOY CREEK...NANCY CREEK...PEACHTREE CREEK...
SOPE CREEK AND BIG CREEK. TRIBUTARIES OF THE OCMULGEE RIVER BASIN
INCLUDING THE YELLOW AND ALCOVY RIVERS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN FLOOD.
HUNDREDS OF ROADS REMAIN CLOSED AND MAY NOT REOPEN UNTIL SOMETIME
TUESDAY.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


There was at least one study that I know of. This dealing with Texas hurricanes. But he has been pretty much spot on with his predictions. This was written in 1999. And as expected TX had one more land falling hurricane between then and 2004. I'd like to see more studies as well.

Long term trends/hurricane cycles. Studies were made back in the 1950's by Dr. W. Armstrong Price on hurricane incidence along the Texas coast and the sunspot cycle. Regardless of whether or not it is due to sunspots or some other interannual climate cycle, using data back to 1829 that are periods in the climatological record of "hurricane-rich" and "hurricane poor" sets of years. A hurricane-rich set of year is represented by an average of 8 storms making landfall over an average of 10 years, plus or minus a couple of either. A hurricane-poor set of years is represented by an average of 2 storms making landfall over an average of 14 years, plus or minus a couple of either.

Using this pattern, he correctly predicted the hurricane-rich period he was entering in 1956 (it lasted from 1954-1971). Using this pattern, it is noted that the Texas coast has been in a hurricane-poor period since 1990. This would mean that at least one more landfalling hurricanes should be expected by around 2004. Thereafter, a hurricane-rich period would begin, lasting until approximately 2015, in which nearly eight hurricanes would make landfall.


Interesting...and now wondering why 2009 is sticking out like a sore thumb. Is it because the solar cycle went inactive ahead of schedule?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:



Based on what?


It was a question, hence the question mark?

If you follow the link provided, you see rotation S of Jamacia, albeit not at the surface yet, interesting.
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Ok well if you see how weak this season has been so far and the fact that it is almost October I think it is safe to say we were spared this year. Good year for coast reidents lol. I just hope this is a trend.. I love el NiƱo
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Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah, I was just gonna ask if there were any studies correlating SS activity with TC activity.


There was at least one study that I know of. This dealing with Texas hurricanes. But he has been pretty much spot on with his predictions. This was written in 1999. And as expected TX had one more land falling hurricane between then and 2004. I'd like to see more studies as well.

Long term trends/hurricane cycles. Studies were made back in the 1950's by Dr. W. Armstrong Price on hurricane incidence along the Texas coast and the sunspot cycle. Regardless of whether or not it is due to sunspots or some other interannual climate cycle, using data back to 1829 that are periods in the climatological record of "hurricane-rich" and "hurricane poor" sets of years. A hurricane-rich set of year is represented by an average of 8 storms making landfall over an average of 10 years, plus or minus a couple of either. A hurricane-poor set of years is represented by an average of 2 storms making landfall over an average of 14 years, plus or minus a couple of either.

Using this pattern, he correctly predicted the hurricane-rich period he was entering in 1956 (it lasted from 1954-1971). Using this pattern, it is noted that the Texas coast has been in a hurricane-poor period since 1990. This would mean that at least one more landfalling hurricanes should be expected by around 2004. Thereafter, a hurricane-rich period would begin, lasting until approximately 2015, in which nearly eight hurricanes would make landfall.
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Good afternoon guys
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
Weak 850Vort popping up @ 18N 71W

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Interesting blob of convection moving WSW towards Cape Canaveral. Fred-Ex?
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Can't you just feel it? :)

Link
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Quoting K8eCane:
but again in all fairness to me my question was addressed to ike and i was asking if it was FredEx TRYING to blow up
Das Fritzel es Kaput
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Trouble brewing just S of Jamacia?
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Quoting K8eCane:


thanks if you are referring to my post 284


sorry no, I was referring to another post.

I'm off to the procto now. Something about a stick....
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Well it looks like Piers Corban's prediction for a double hurricane developement on the 22nd and 23rd of Sept. isn't gonna happen.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hmmm well that didn't work....


Link


theres a nice outflow over a broad surface low. Popcorn hurricane? lol. Seems to be stalling, its just a matter if it stalls over land.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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Quoting CycloneOz:


It is very complicated and has to do with a butterfly flapping it's wings in Tibet.

{sorry...I couldn't resist...I'm sure someone will give you a straight answer. :)
Thought it had to do with Yak flatulence in Zimbabwe? NO?
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Soaker's...

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Thanks for the answers all!
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306. Murko
Quoting Seastep:


Just a clarification for the record. All of that is old testament/torah.


Yes, it was, all the word of god.
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"Well, that depends on what your definition of "is", is."
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
but again in all fairness to me my question was addressed to ike and i was asking if it was FredEx TRYING to blow up
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Sorry...that is not Fred. For it to be "Fred", TS warning...(at a minimum) would be issued as it approached U.S. coastline.

Just looked...NOPE! No tropical storm warnings are posted. Sorry. Not Fred.


thanks if you are referring to my post 284
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I say, El What ? 2009 so far is a very mild Nino.

1997:


2009:


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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