Quiet in the Atlantic; lessons learned from Hurricane Hugo's storm surge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2009

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The tropical disturbance (98L), midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown weak and disorganized. No development of this disturbance is likely to occur.

The remains of Hurricane Fred are still kicking up heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined, as seen in last night's QuikSCAT pass. Fred-ex is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to remain about the same over the next two days. Fred-ex will be moving ashore Tuesday night or Wednesday along a stretch of coast from Florida to North Carolina, bringing heavy rains to some areas. There is too much wind shear and dry air, and not enough time, for Fred-ex to develop into a tropical depression. I don't expect it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex, 400 miles east of Florida.

Twenty years ago today
On September 21, 1989, Hurricane Hugo began the day as a minimum-strength Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. But as a strong trough of low pressure turned the hurricane to the north and accelerated Hugo to a forward speed of 25 mph, the storm took advantage of low wind shear and warm ocean waters to begin a period of rapid intensification. As darkness fell on the 21st, Hugo had grown to huge Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Its target: the South Carolina coast near Charleston, at Sullivan's Island. At 11:57 pm on the 21st, Hugo made landfall on Sullivan's Island. It was the strongest hurricane on record to hit South Carolina, and the second strongest hurricane (since reliable records began in 1851) to hit the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. Only Hurricane Hazel of 1954 (Category 4, 140 mph winds) was stronger.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 21, 1989. Hugo had intensified to a formidable Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds.

On Isle of Palms, a barrier island adjacent to Sullivan's Island, the mayor and several police officers were sheltering in a 2-story building which lay at an elevation of ten feet. As related in a story published in the St. Petersburg Times, they heard the following bulletin on the radio at 10:30pm the night Hugo made landfall:

"The National Weather Service has issued a storm surge update. It appears that the storm surge will be greater than anticipated. It is now expected to reach a height of 17 to 21 feet."

"Mom didn't raise an idiot," said the one cop with the most sense, and he convinced the others to get off the island. They left the island by driving at 5 mph through horizontal sheets of rain and hurricane-force wind gusts over the Ben Sawyer Bridge, which connected Sullivan's Island to the mainland. As they crossed onto the bridge, they passed over a large bump--the bridge and road bed were at different levels. Not good. While crossing the bridge, they could feel it swaying and straining, and heard the sound of metal, twisting and grinding and breaking. They made it, but only barely--minutes later, the hurricane tore the center span of the bridge from its connection on both ends, leaving it a twisted ruin in the bay.


Figure 3. The Ben Sawyer Bridge connecting Sullivan's Island to Charleston, South Carolina, after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Hugo's storm surge
In McClellanville, on the coast thirty miles northeast of Charleston, between 500 - 1100 people took refuge at the designated shelter for the region, Lincoln High School. Lincoln High is a one-story school, mostly constructed of cinder block, located on the east side of Highway 17, and was believed to be at an altitude of twenty feet. McClellanville is about 4 - 5 miles inland from the open ocean, but lies on the Intracoastal Waterway, so is vulnerable to high storm surges. Near midnight on the 21st, a storm surge of twenty feet poured into Bulls Bay just south of McClellanville, and funneled into the narrow Intracoastal Waterway. Water started pouring into the high school and rose fairly rapidly. Within minutes, people were wading around up to their waists, the water still rising. In the school cafeteria, many refugees gathered on a stage at one end, putting children up on tables. The elevated stage kept them above water; others floated in the water. Another group was in the band room, which had a much lower ceiling than the cafeteria. They had to stand on desks and push out the ceiling tiles for more breathing room, as the water rose within 1 - 2 feet of the ceiling. Fortunately, Hugo's storm surge peaked at that time, at about 16 - 17 feet (Figure 4), and the people sheltering at Lincoln High were spared.


Figure 4. Estimated storm surge (height above ground) as estimated by NOAA's storm surge model, SLOSH. McClellanville (upper right) received a storm surge estimated at 16 - 17 feet.

According to Dr. Stephen Baig, the retired head of the NHC storm surge unit, the back-story is this: To build Lincoln High School, which lies at an altitude of ten feet, the local school board used the same plans that were drawn up for another school that is west of Highway 17, and that IS at 20 feet elevation. Not only the same plans, the same set of working drawings. Those working drawings showed a surveyed elevation of 20 feet above datum (probably NGVD29). Apparently Lincoln High was constructed either without benefit of elevation survey or the plans were not annotated with its site elevation. When the Red Cross inquired as to its utility as an evacuation site, whoever looked at the plans saw the surveyed elevation at 20 feet. That is what the Red Cross published. That is why the school was a designated shelter. Since that near-tragedy, the Red Cross requires a new elevation survey for every potential storm shelter. I think that at the time this was discovered all the designated shelters also were re-surveyed, just to be sure that no similar Lincoln High problems were waiting to happen.

Only one person died from Hugo's storm surge, a woman who sheltered in her mobile home that got struck by the surge. Her death was one of only ten deaths that have occurred due to storm surge in the U.S. in the 35 years between 1969 - 2005 (after the 100+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Camille of 1969, and before the 1000+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Katrina). This amazingly low death toll can be attributed to four factors:

1) Greater understanding of the storm surge and better storm surge forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, thanks to such tools as the SLOSH storm surge model.
2) The excellent job NWS/NHC/FEMA and state and local Emergency Managers have done educating the public on the potential surge they can expect.
3) The success local government has had making evacuations of low-lying areas work.
4) Luck. The 20+ storm surge deaths on the Bolivar Peninsula in 2008 from Hurricane Ike show that there are still plenty of stubborn, unlucky, or uneducated people who will die when a significant storm surge hits a low-lying populated coast. The storm surge from the next major hurricane that sweeps through the Florida Keys is likely to cause a lot of storm surge deaths, since many residents there are pretty stubborn about not evacuating.

Kudos and links
I thank Ken Bass for providing the details on the Lincoln High storm surge near-disaster. Ken is working on a book on Hurricane Hugo, and has written a very readable book I plan to review later this year, about a fictional Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com has a web page with links to tons of Hurricane Hugo stories. Included are links to YouTube videos of a "Rescue 911" episode that interviewed survivors of the Lincoln High storm surge scare. The show also did a re-creation of the event.

Our Historical storm surge page has SLOSH model storm surge animations of Hurricane Hugo's landafall, as well as of 39 other famous hurricanes.

Tomorrow: I'll wrap up my series on Hurricane Hugo.

Jeff Masters

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Here's my Wunderground 4cast for 78641:

Now
A band of thunderstorms in central Texas is developing southeastward at 15 mph toward Burnet and Llano counties. This activity will reach Valley Spring, Tow and oakalia around 11 PM. Expect deadly cloud to ground lightning, hail, winds gusting to 40 mph and up to an inch of rain.
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Are some models still wanting to develop something in the GOM in relation to this front coming through TX? Seems like a few days ago there was some talk of that.
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98L is comming back thats the story of the night, that Low is statonary building convection over the CoC waiting the shear break that seems to be ahead looking at the CIMSS charts and 5 days loop, maybe this will be after all the story of this season can't wait to see the new models, this is a whole diferent ball game now.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
you should clarify, South Florida snowfall event. Snow in other parts parts of the Sunshine State are not that rare.
Seen it three times in 30 yrs. in central FL. No accumilation just falling flakes.
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Greetings. From trinidad, 11n 61w.
Is it still September ? I cannot remember a drier looking Atlantic, Caribbean, GOM, in September. Or for most other months actually! What a peculiar season.
How many Invests have we had this season, that have fizzled out to nothing?
Not complaining, just find it very strange.
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Iceman, are you expecting twisters out of this?
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Quoting StormW:


Good evening.
Good evening Sir. Do you think 98L might make a comeback ? How are conditions and steering for this ?
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Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude so how college matt>?


well it has been alright so far, definitely getting more difficult, but I am really enjoying my EAS class. how is it in Slidell?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting hunkerdown:
you should clarify, South Florida snowfall event. Snow in other parts parts of the Sunshine State are not that rare.
In the Great Blizzard of 1899, Tampa experienced its one and only known blizzard, with "bay effect" snow coming off Tampa Bay.[52][53] The last measurable snow in Tampa fell on January 19, 1977. The accumulation amounted to all of 0.2 inches (0.5 cm).
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Quoting presslord:
tornado...was a pretty day in Charleston...'sposed to turn sout overnight...


well glad you got a good day in tho
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
tornado...was a pretty day in Charleston...'sposed to turn sout overnight...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting VortMax1969:
The 1977 Florida snowfall was an anomalous event. Temperatures were below normal -4 to -2 degrees Celsius for the month of August in Florida.


I remember it very well.
You were most likely not born yet!

you should clarify, South Florida snowfall event. Snow in other parts parts of the Sunshine State are not that rare.
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Quoting TexasHoosier:
Storm, Others,

Showing my ignorance, but what is WeatherTap?

New one for me......


Weather Tap
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Storm, Others,

Showing my ignorance, but what is WeatherTap?

New one for me......
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Quoting StormW:


Yes.


good evening Storm
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting iceman55:
anyone use weathertap before.????


Yes i did the free trial once but dont remember how it was
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Quoting presslord:


you're forgiven...grudgingly...


:P how goes the weather in your neck of the woods?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


my apologies ;)


you're forgiven...grudgingly...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting presslord:
Don't ever step on my joke again young man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ; )


my apologies ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Don't ever step on my joke again young man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ; )
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Sorry, I did not respond sooner, but dinner called and it was good. Storm appears to have moved further to the Southeast.

Quoting Hurricane009

Where do you live?


I live in SW Fort Worth about 2 miles, NNE of North Crowley High School. The exact coordinates are as follows:

32-37-39.02N // 097-24-05.46W

On Google Maps, look for the swimming pool and the 10' satellite dish in the backyard at the end of the cul-de-sac.
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Quoting presslord:
"...unarmed amputee..." Get it?!?! He didn't have any arms...


all puns aside, he was technically legless.
link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
I'm out for tonight
Back tomorrow
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07L has no circulation, proves that looks can be deceiving.

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Quoting presslord:
"...unarmed amputee..." Get it?!?! He didn't have any arms...
but the oxymoron would be the "armed amputee"
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"...unarmed amputee..." Get it?!?! He didn't have any arms...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Interesting system to the west of ex-98L.

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Quoting presslord:
HEADLINE: "Police Taser Unarmed Amputee"

...think about it...


wow
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
HEADLINE: "Police Taser Unarmed Amputee"

...think about it...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting Hurricane009:
Tornadodude: SNOW IN COLORADO!!! JK, i wont say it any more


ha good call, just trying to keep you from getting yourself on people's ignore list :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting AllStar17:


'Tis the season.

I hate winter!
The common colds, the extremely cold weather. I could go on and on.
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Not saying it could go all F5, F2-3 maybe, but here's the same setup.





Shortly before 3:45 pm CDT on 27 May 97, a violent tornado struck portions of Jarrell, TX, killing 27 directly, and doing damage officially rated F5 on the Fujita Scale -- the most extreme level of tornado damage. This tornado blew some houses completely off the foundations and swept away the disentegrated remains. It also scoured asphalt from roads, killed and dismembered hundreds of cattle, stripped bark from trees and uprooted them, and bounced vehicles for up to half a mile from their parking places.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Loop that illustrates it.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
To be jolly...falalalala,lalalala


youve got mail
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Almost looks like a pineapple express, but its not.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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