Quiet in the Atlantic; lessons learned from Hurricane Hugo's storm surge
The tropical disturbance (98L), midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown weak and disorganized. No development of this disturbance is likely to occur.
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still kicking up heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined, as seen in last night's QuikSCAT pass. Fred-ex is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to remain about the same over the next two days. Fred-ex will be moving ashore Tuesday night or Wednesday along a stretch of coast from Florida to North Carolina, bringing heavy rains to some areas. There is too much wind shear and dry air, and not enough time, for Fred-ex to develop into a tropical depression. I don't expect it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex, 400 miles east of Florida.
Twenty years ago today
On September 21, 1989, Hurricane Hugo began the day as a minimum-strength Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. But as a strong trough of low pressure turned the hurricane to the north and accelerated Hugo to a forward speed of 25 mph, the storm took advantage of low wind shear and warm ocean waters to begin a period of rapid intensification. As darkness fell on the 21st, Hugo had grown to huge Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Its target: the South Carolina coast near Charleston, at Sullivan's Island. At 11:57 pm on the 21st, Hugo made landfall on Sullivan's Island. It was the strongest hurricane on record to hit South Carolina, and the second strongest hurricane (since reliable records began in 1851) to hit the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. Only Hurricane Hazel of 1954 (Category 4, 140 mph winds) was stronger.
Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 21, 1989. Hugo had intensified to a formidable Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds.
On Isle of Palms, a barrier island adjacent to Sullivan's Island, the mayor and several police officers were sheltering in a 2-story building which lay at an elevation of ten feet. As related in a story published in the St. Petersburg Times, they heard the following bulletin on the radio at 10:30pm the night Hugo made landfall:
"The National Weather Service has issued a storm surge update. It appears that the storm surge will be greater than anticipated. It is now expected to reach a height of 17 to 21 feet."
"Mom didn't raise an idiot," said the one cop with the most sense, and he convinced the others to get off the island. They left the island by driving at 5 mph through horizontal sheets of rain and hurricane-force wind gusts over the Ben Sawyer Bridge, which connected Sullivan's Island to the mainland. As they crossed onto the bridge, they passed over a large bump--the bridge and road bed were at different levels. Not good. While crossing the bridge, they could feel it swaying and straining, and heard the sound of metal, twisting and grinding and breaking. They made it, but only barely--minutes later, the hurricane tore the center span of the bridge from its connection on both ends, leaving it a twisted ruin in the bay.
Figure 3. The Ben Sawyer Bridge connecting Sullivan's Island to Charleston, South Carolina, after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.
Hugo's storm surge
In McClellanville, on the coast thirty miles northeast of Charleston, between 500 - 1100 people took refuge at the designated shelter for the region, Lincoln High School. Lincoln High is a one-story school, mostly constructed of cinder block, located on the east side of Highway 17, and was believed to be at an altitude of twenty feet. McClellanville is about 4 - 5 miles inland from the open ocean, but lies on the Intracoastal Waterway, so is vulnerable to high storm surges. Near midnight on the 21st, a storm surge of twenty feet poured into Bulls Bay just south of McClellanville, and funneled into the narrow Intracoastal Waterway. Water started pouring into the high school and rose fairly rapidly. Within minutes, people were wading around up to their waists, the water still rising. In the school cafeteria, many refugees gathered on a stage at one end, putting children up on tables. The elevated stage kept them above water; others floated in the water. Another group was in the band room, which had a much lower ceiling than the cafeteria. They had to stand on desks and push out the ceiling tiles for more breathing room, as the water rose within 1 - 2 feet of the ceiling. Fortunately, Hugo's storm surge peaked at that time, at about 16 - 17 feet (Figure 4), and the people sheltering at Lincoln High were spared.
Figure 4. Estimated storm surge (height above ground) as estimated by NOAA's storm surge model, SLOSH. McClellanville (upper right) received a storm surge estimated at 16 - 17 feet.
According to Dr. Stephen Baig, the retired head of the NHC storm surge unit, the back-story is this: To build Lincoln High School, which lies at an altitude of ten feet, the local school board used the same plans that were drawn up for another school that is west of Highway 17, and that IS at 20 feet elevation. Not only the same plans, the same set of working drawings. Those working drawings showed a surveyed elevation of 20 feet above datum (probably NGVD29). Apparently Lincoln High was constructed either without benefit of elevation survey or the plans were not annotated with its site elevation. When the Red Cross inquired as to its utility as an evacuation site, whoever looked at the plans saw the surveyed elevation at 20 feet. That is what the Red Cross published. That is why the school was a designated shelter. Since that near-tragedy, the Red Cross requires a new elevation survey for every potential storm shelter. I think that at the time this was discovered all the designated shelters also were re-surveyed, just to be sure that no similar Lincoln High problems were waiting to happen.
Only one person died from Hugo's storm surge, a woman who sheltered in her mobile home that got struck by the surge. Her death was one of only ten deaths that have occurred due to storm surge in the U.S. in the 35 years between 1969 - 2005 (after the 100+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Camille of 1969, and before the 1000+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Katrina). This amazingly low death toll can be attributed to four factors:
1) Greater understanding of the storm surge and better storm surge forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, thanks to such tools as the SLOSH storm surge model.
2) The excellent job NWS/NHC/FEMA and state and local Emergency Managers have done educating the public on the potential surge they can expect.
3) The success local government has had making evacuations of low-lying areas work.
4) Luck. The 20+ storm surge deaths on the Bolivar Peninsula in 2008 from Hurricane Ike show that there are still plenty of stubborn, unlucky, or uneducated people who will die when a significant storm surge hits a low-lying populated coast. The storm surge from the next major hurricane that sweeps through the Florida Keys is likely to cause a lot of storm surge deaths, since many residents there are pretty stubborn about not evacuating.
Kudos and links
I thank Ken Bass for providing the details on the Lincoln High storm surge near-disaster. Ken is working on a book on Hurricane Hugo, and has written a very readable book I plan to review later this year, about a fictional Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.
Hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com has a web page with links to tons of Hurricane Hugo stories. Included are links to YouTube videos of a "Rescue 911" episode that interviewed survivors of the Lincoln High storm surge scare. The show also did a re-creation of the event.
Our Historical storm surge page has SLOSH model storm surge animations of Hurricane Hugo's landafall, as well as of 39 other famous hurricanes.
Tomorrow: I'll wrap up my series on Hurricane Hugo.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Flew right over my house in Merritt Island! Pretty cool because we usually have to go to the beach to see it.
please tell me you have figured out why we have the ignore feature!
How dare you give him such a compliment like that! What an insult to 12 year olds. A 12 year old would write much better than that. I think we should go down a few grades. lol
Apparently a windy gasbag with nothing original to say but plenty of reasons to argue about it anyway...yep, Tropics, Bozo would be good but it would be an insult to clowns everywhere
It's about time for the far east to close up shop anyway. The dust will just drive the last nail on the final week IMO. Good catch on the dust plume, I hadn't noticed.
And if he sent you the archives about his Dean forcasts, you'd see just how far off they were. But he won't answer questions about that. It would show how little he knows about weather.
Interesting picture of the tropics. Looks like remnant Fred is firing up a little to the North. OSUWXGUY or Reed, or anybod. It that where the center of circulation is? I thought the shear was to remain slightly on the high side through today?
In the meantime, hoping the Season will remain quiet till the finish but NOT at all convinced that it is over for the Caribbean.
Then we could take him seriously!
Pass Christian is 128 miles south and west of Buras La, the area of Katrina's land fall.
Hey presslord, did not know you were on! Your .02 is always worth a comment.
I guess that would include me, as well?
I just have a dirty house...because I'm a domestic engineer...
Since i retired, thats what I have become too....
Pass Christian is north and east of the original Buras landfall; the distance, as the crow flies, is 78 miles...by car it's considerably further, something on the order of 220 miles
Never admit to that, we would never know! But now we know why you are waiting for Pond boy or whoever. By the way, what is that all about with Orca. I believe I may have missed something. tornadodude made an earlier reference for me to look, but did not have the time.
Yea i sent admin a mail on that last week. Got a reply yesterday that said ty for input
Orca is having his pond fixed today, and I assume because he is at work, he will be able to monitor the progress via webcam...
Hurricane georges 09-21-1998
yep the shop is closed XD
Texas Drought Situation
This time in 1998.
Rain finally stop falling after almost 10 hrs since the eye left around 3 am.
Persons finally got up and witnessed the devastation first hand. I was stuck in my house until Tuesday 22 September 1998 since a wall fell on hour front door jamming it and the tree debris was blocking the back door. The neighbors finally got us out.
I say, El What ?
1997:
2009:
How does ENSO relate to MJO?
(Really, I wish Michael StL were here, he would know. But, alas, his demeanor towards anyone that looked at his posts oddly got out of hand...or maybe he is here, but under another handle and exclusively talking tropics.)
MJO has been very good to us in the NW Atlantic except for that one spike when Ana, Bill, Claudette, and Danny formed:
These Agencies/Organisations have a hard enough job immediately Pre-Season especially if the previous Season has been quiet - but their job is certainly not made any easier when there are pundits, on what is among the top 2 (IMHO) Tropical Weather Sites, categorically stating in the 3rd week of Sep that the Season is over.
Please be careful as there are probably many "lurkers" out there who take a lot of what is stated on this Site as gospel and may not, as yet, have learned to "separate the wheat from the chaff".
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