Quiet in the Atlantic; lessons learned from Hurricane Hugo's storm surge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2009

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The tropical disturbance (98L), midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown weak and disorganized. No development of this disturbance is likely to occur.

The remains of Hurricane Fred are still kicking up heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined, as seen in last night's QuikSCAT pass. Fred-ex is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to remain about the same over the next two days. Fred-ex will be moving ashore Tuesday night or Wednesday along a stretch of coast from Florida to North Carolina, bringing heavy rains to some areas. There is too much wind shear and dry air, and not enough time, for Fred-ex to develop into a tropical depression. I don't expect it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex, 400 miles east of Florida.

Twenty years ago today
On September 21, 1989, Hurricane Hugo began the day as a minimum-strength Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. But as a strong trough of low pressure turned the hurricane to the north and accelerated Hugo to a forward speed of 25 mph, the storm took advantage of low wind shear and warm ocean waters to begin a period of rapid intensification. As darkness fell on the 21st, Hugo had grown to huge Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Its target: the South Carolina coast near Charleston, at Sullivan's Island. At 11:57 pm on the 21st, Hugo made landfall on Sullivan's Island. It was the strongest hurricane on record to hit South Carolina, and the second strongest hurricane (since reliable records began in 1851) to hit the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. Only Hurricane Hazel of 1954 (Category 4, 140 mph winds) was stronger.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 21, 1989. Hugo had intensified to a formidable Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds.

On Isle of Palms, a barrier island adjacent to Sullivan's Island, the mayor and several police officers were sheltering in a 2-story building which lay at an elevation of ten feet. As related in a story published in the St. Petersburg Times, they heard the following bulletin on the radio at 10:30pm the night Hugo made landfall:

"The National Weather Service has issued a storm surge update. It appears that the storm surge will be greater than anticipated. It is now expected to reach a height of 17 to 21 feet."

"Mom didn't raise an idiot," said the one cop with the most sense, and he convinced the others to get off the island. They left the island by driving at 5 mph through horizontal sheets of rain and hurricane-force wind gusts over the Ben Sawyer Bridge, which connected Sullivan's Island to the mainland. As they crossed onto the bridge, they passed over a large bump--the bridge and road bed were at different levels. Not good. While crossing the bridge, they could feel it swaying and straining, and heard the sound of metal, twisting and grinding and breaking. They made it, but only barely--minutes later, the hurricane tore the center span of the bridge from its connection on both ends, leaving it a twisted ruin in the bay.


Figure 3. The Ben Sawyer Bridge connecting Sullivan's Island to Charleston, South Carolina, after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Hugo's storm surge
In McClellanville, on the coast thirty miles northeast of Charleston, between 500 - 1100 people took refuge at the designated shelter for the region, Lincoln High School. Lincoln High is a one-story school, mostly constructed of cinder block, located on the east side of Highway 17, and was believed to be at an altitude of twenty feet. McClellanville is about 4 - 5 miles inland from the open ocean, but lies on the Intracoastal Waterway, so is vulnerable to high storm surges. Near midnight on the 21st, a storm surge of twenty feet poured into Bulls Bay just south of McClellanville, and funneled into the narrow Intracoastal Waterway. Water started pouring into the high school and rose fairly rapidly. Within minutes, people were wading around up to their waists, the water still rising. In the school cafeteria, many refugees gathered on a stage at one end, putting children up on tables. The elevated stage kept them above water; others floated in the water. Another group was in the band room, which had a much lower ceiling than the cafeteria. They had to stand on desks and push out the ceiling tiles for more breathing room, as the water rose within 1 - 2 feet of the ceiling. Fortunately, Hugo's storm surge peaked at that time, at about 16 - 17 feet (Figure 4), and the people sheltering at Lincoln High were spared.


Figure 4. Estimated storm surge (height above ground) as estimated by NOAA's storm surge model, SLOSH. McClellanville (upper right) received a storm surge estimated at 16 - 17 feet.

According to Dr. Stephen Baig, the retired head of the NHC storm surge unit, the back-story is this: To build Lincoln High School, which lies at an altitude of ten feet, the local school board used the same plans that were drawn up for another school that is west of Highway 17, and that IS at 20 feet elevation. Not only the same plans, the same set of working drawings. Those working drawings showed a surveyed elevation of 20 feet above datum (probably NGVD29). Apparently Lincoln High was constructed either without benefit of elevation survey or the plans were not annotated with its site elevation. When the Red Cross inquired as to its utility as an evacuation site, whoever looked at the plans saw the surveyed elevation at 20 feet. That is what the Red Cross published. That is why the school was a designated shelter. Since that near-tragedy, the Red Cross requires a new elevation survey for every potential storm shelter. I think that at the time this was discovered all the designated shelters also were re-surveyed, just to be sure that no similar Lincoln High problems were waiting to happen.

Only one person died from Hugo's storm surge, a woman who sheltered in her mobile home that got struck by the surge. Her death was one of only ten deaths that have occurred due to storm surge in the U.S. in the 35 years between 1969 - 2005 (after the 100+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Camille of 1969, and before the 1000+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Katrina). This amazingly low death toll can be attributed to four factors:

1) Greater understanding of the storm surge and better storm surge forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, thanks to such tools as the SLOSH storm surge model.
2) The excellent job NWS/NHC/FEMA and state and local Emergency Managers have done educating the public on the potential surge they can expect.
3) The success local government has had making evacuations of low-lying areas work.
4) Luck. The 20+ storm surge deaths on the Bolivar Peninsula in 2008 from Hurricane Ike show that there are still plenty of stubborn, unlucky, or uneducated people who will die when a significant storm surge hits a low-lying populated coast. The storm surge from the next major hurricane that sweeps through the Florida Keys is likely to cause a lot of storm surge deaths, since many residents there are pretty stubborn about not evacuating.

Kudos and links
I thank Ken Bass for providing the details on the Lincoln High storm surge near-disaster. Ken is working on a book on Hurricane Hugo, and has written a very readable book I plan to review later this year, about a fictional Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com has a web page with links to tons of Hurricane Hugo stories. Included are links to YouTube videos of a "Rescue 911" episode that interviewed survivors of the Lincoln High storm surge scare. The show also did a re-creation of the event.

Our Historical storm surge page has SLOSH model storm surge animations of Hurricane Hugo's landafall, as well as of 39 other famous hurricanes.

Tomorrow: I'll wrap up my series on Hurricane Hugo.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting will40:
come up here and help me cut fire wood lmao


haha its pretty dang cold there
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
come up here and help me cut fire wood lmao
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Quoting iceman55:
will40 i.m ready out like cowboyz howndy


ok be safe ice
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Quoting will40:
uh hu instead of windchill its wind heat lol


haha yea
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
uh hu instead of windchill its wind heat lol
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Quoting will40:
5 degreeF feels like 73F ah ha


that is one heck of a heat index
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting iceman55:
LOOKING LIKE bad storm head this way in about 3hr bad weather as iseeing on Radar.


hunker down ice
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5 degreeF feels like 73F ah ha
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:



Odd that the weather alarm mentions heavy rain but no snow!


There's snow in North Carolina!!! ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
lmao
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Quoting will40:
Link


tornadodude look at this link see if you see anything strange lol


um wow, that is quite humorous haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Link


tornadodude look at this link see if you see anything strange lol
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Quoting will40:
i was thinkin darn i dont have my water pipes wrapped lol


haha yeah, that is pretty funny tho
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
i was thinkin darn i dont have my water pipes wrapped lol
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Quoting tornadodude:


that is pretty ironic since we are talking about winter storms, etc. lol


uh hu had me scratchin my head
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they left off a 7 lol
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Quoting will40:



Yea and it is from my favs on wu lol


that is pretty ironic since we are talking about winter storms, etc. lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


is that what it says the current conditions are??



Yea and it is from my favs on wu lol
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Quoting will40:
Emerald Isle, NC
1 °F
Overcast

lmao recon i get snow?


is that what it says the current conditions are??
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting natrwalkn:
Nice talking to all of you. Good group of folks on here tonight. Bedtime now, but I check the site every day whether I post or not! Bye.


have a good one!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
ha ha 1888 blizzard was wimpy. How bout 30" of snow in Beaumont TX on the Gulf Coast in Feb 1895?

Link



I wouldnt call it wimpy, but yes, that was an intense snow for Texas for sure, well actually for most areas
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Nice talking to all of you. Good group of folks on here tonight. Bedtime now, but I check the site every day whether I post or not! Bye.
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Emerald Isle, NC
1 °F
Overcast

lmao recon i get snow?
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Link


Capefear here is a link for your NWS discussion
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Great Blizzard of 1888-

he Great Blizzard of 1888 or Great Blizzard of '88 (March 11—March 14, 1888) was one of the most severe blizzards in United States' recorded history. Snowfalls of 40-50 inches (102-127 cm) fell in parts of New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut, and sustained winds of over 45 miles per hour (72 km/h) produced snowdrifts in excess of 50 feet (15.2 m)

The storm began in earnest shortly after midnight on March 12, and continued unabated for a full day and a half. The National Weather Service estimated this incredible Nor'easter dumped 50 inches (1.3 m) of snow in Connecticut and Massachusetts, while New Jersey and New York had 40 inches (1.0 m).[3] Most of northern Vermont received from 20 inches (50.8 cm) to 30 inches (76.2 cm) in this storm.[4]

Drifts were reported to be 25-40 feet, over the tops of houses from New York to New England, with reports of drifts covering 3-story houses. The highest drift (52 feet/15.8 metres) was recorded in Gravesend, New York. Fifty eight inches of snow was reported in Saratoga Springs, New York; 48 inches in Albany, New York; 45 inches of snow in New Haven, Connecticut; and 22 inches of snow in New York City.[5] The storm also produced severe winds; 80 miles per hour (129 km/h) wind gusts were reported, although the highest official report in New York City was 40 miles per hour (64 km/h), with a 54 miles per hour (87 km/h) gust reported at Block Island.







Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Thank you both very much.
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Quoting CapeFearParke:
As a S.E. coastal resident where can I expect the reminants of Fred to come ashore and when? Where can I look for the anwser?


Look to the local radar. It shouldn't be much but some periodic showers, perhaps a tropical downpour at times. Keep looking at your local radar to see what's moving in from the ocean.

Best advice I can give.
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Quoting CapeFearParke:
As a S.E. coastal resident where can I expect the reminants of Fred to come ashore and when? Where can I look for the anwser?


i would look at the Wilmington NWS forecast. Last time i checked it is looking like GA/SC area
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Got it-
West Lafayette, IN (47906)

* The highest recorded temperature was 105°F in 1983.

* The lowest recorded temperature was -23°F in 1985.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The second snowy norther brought us a white Christmas, with heavy snow--6.6". You can see the snow in my avatar from a pic of the house I grew up early morning December 24, 1989. Dec 1989 was very cold, and a powerful arctic cold front blasted through, giving us our coldest max temperature ever of 24 on December 23, 1989. That was at midnight--the temperature was in the upper teens continuously all late morning and all afternoon and evening.


A powerful upper level disturbance was able to wring out precip from the mid levels of the air---at first we had freezing rain for 20 minutes, then sleet for 4 hours as the cold level grew deeper and colder. Dynamical cooling finally finished off the warm air and it turned to SNOW!

There was no real low pressure center with this storm at first, but the upper level disturbance made a very powerful storm bomb out over the gulf stream, which was 77 degrees 90 miles to our east.

Dec 22, 1989: Link

Dec 23, 1989: SNOW ALL DAY!! Link


Boy do I remember that storm!! We had 18" of snow in some areas around Wilmington, NC and busted our lowest temp ever recorded by 4 deg F!! We got down to 0 degrees Christmas Eve night to set our all-time record low!! GREAT MEMORIES!! That was so exciting to a kid in 7th grade!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Yes it was! And right before Christmas too :)

Our official records here began in August 1948, so we don't have the length of record that major cities have. We had 3 wild cold waves in the 1980s that brought us days with highs below freezing--the only ones in our record. I remember them all

Dec 25, 1983 12/29
Jan 21, 1985 6(!)/27

And the third, coldest, and final subfreezing day:

Dec 23, 1989 17/24


that is incredible! I love winter weather, and I dont know what the coldest weather here at Purdue is, but I will look it up
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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