Quiet in the Atlantic; lessons learned from Hurricane Hugo's storm surge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2009

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The tropical disturbance (98L), midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown weak and disorganized. No development of this disturbance is likely to occur.

The remains of Hurricane Fred are still kicking up heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined, as seen in last night's QuikSCAT pass. Fred-ex is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to remain about the same over the next two days. Fred-ex will be moving ashore Tuesday night or Wednesday along a stretch of coast from Florida to North Carolina, bringing heavy rains to some areas. There is too much wind shear and dry air, and not enough time, for Fred-ex to develop into a tropical depression. I don't expect it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex, 400 miles east of Florida.

Twenty years ago today
On September 21, 1989, Hurricane Hugo began the day as a minimum-strength Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. But as a strong trough of low pressure turned the hurricane to the north and accelerated Hugo to a forward speed of 25 mph, the storm took advantage of low wind shear and warm ocean waters to begin a period of rapid intensification. As darkness fell on the 21st, Hugo had grown to huge Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Its target: the South Carolina coast near Charleston, at Sullivan's Island. At 11:57 pm on the 21st, Hugo made landfall on Sullivan's Island. It was the strongest hurricane on record to hit South Carolina, and the second strongest hurricane (since reliable records began in 1851) to hit the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. Only Hurricane Hazel of 1954 (Category 4, 140 mph winds) was stronger.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 21, 1989. Hugo had intensified to a formidable Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds.

On Isle of Palms, a barrier island adjacent to Sullivan's Island, the mayor and several police officers were sheltering in a 2-story building which lay at an elevation of ten feet. As related in a story published in the St. Petersburg Times, they heard the following bulletin on the radio at 10:30pm the night Hugo made landfall:

"The National Weather Service has issued a storm surge update. It appears that the storm surge will be greater than anticipated. It is now expected to reach a height of 17 to 21 feet."

"Mom didn't raise an idiot," said the one cop with the most sense, and he convinced the others to get off the island. They left the island by driving at 5 mph through horizontal sheets of rain and hurricane-force wind gusts over the Ben Sawyer Bridge, which connected Sullivan's Island to the mainland. As they crossed onto the bridge, they passed over a large bump--the bridge and road bed were at different levels. Not good. While crossing the bridge, they could feel it swaying and straining, and heard the sound of metal, twisting and grinding and breaking. They made it, but only barely--minutes later, the hurricane tore the center span of the bridge from its connection on both ends, leaving it a twisted ruin in the bay.


Figure 3. The Ben Sawyer Bridge connecting Sullivan's Island to Charleston, South Carolina, after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Hugo's storm surge
In McClellanville, on the coast thirty miles northeast of Charleston, between 500 - 1100 people took refuge at the designated shelter for the region, Lincoln High School. Lincoln High is a one-story school, mostly constructed of cinder block, located on the east side of Highway 17, and was believed to be at an altitude of twenty feet. McClellanville is about 4 - 5 miles inland from the open ocean, but lies on the Intracoastal Waterway, so is vulnerable to high storm surges. Near midnight on the 21st, a storm surge of twenty feet poured into Bulls Bay just south of McClellanville, and funneled into the narrow Intracoastal Waterway. Water started pouring into the high school and rose fairly rapidly. Within minutes, people were wading around up to their waists, the water still rising. In the school cafeteria, many refugees gathered on a stage at one end, putting children up on tables. The elevated stage kept them above water; others floated in the water. Another group was in the band room, which had a much lower ceiling than the cafeteria. They had to stand on desks and push out the ceiling tiles for more breathing room, as the water rose within 1 - 2 feet of the ceiling. Fortunately, Hugo's storm surge peaked at that time, at about 16 - 17 feet (Figure 4), and the people sheltering at Lincoln High were spared.


Figure 4. Estimated storm surge (height above ground) as estimated by NOAA's storm surge model, SLOSH. McClellanville (upper right) received a storm surge estimated at 16 - 17 feet.

According to Dr. Stephen Baig, the retired head of the NHC storm surge unit, the back-story is this: To build Lincoln High School, which lies at an altitude of ten feet, the local school board used the same plans that were drawn up for another school that is west of Highway 17, and that IS at 20 feet elevation. Not only the same plans, the same set of working drawings. Those working drawings showed a surveyed elevation of 20 feet above datum (probably NGVD29). Apparently Lincoln High was constructed either without benefit of elevation survey or the plans were not annotated with its site elevation. When the Red Cross inquired as to its utility as an evacuation site, whoever looked at the plans saw the surveyed elevation at 20 feet. That is what the Red Cross published. That is why the school was a designated shelter. Since that near-tragedy, the Red Cross requires a new elevation survey for every potential storm shelter. I think that at the time this was discovered all the designated shelters also were re-surveyed, just to be sure that no similar Lincoln High problems were waiting to happen.

Only one person died from Hugo's storm surge, a woman who sheltered in her mobile home that got struck by the surge. Her death was one of only ten deaths that have occurred due to storm surge in the U.S. in the 35 years between 1969 - 2005 (after the 100+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Camille of 1969, and before the 1000+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Katrina). This amazingly low death toll can be attributed to four factors:

1) Greater understanding of the storm surge and better storm surge forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, thanks to such tools as the SLOSH storm surge model.
2) The excellent job NWS/NHC/FEMA and state and local Emergency Managers have done educating the public on the potential surge they can expect.
3) The success local government has had making evacuations of low-lying areas work.
4) Luck. The 20+ storm surge deaths on the Bolivar Peninsula in 2008 from Hurricane Ike show that there are still plenty of stubborn, unlucky, or uneducated people who will die when a significant storm surge hits a low-lying populated coast. The storm surge from the next major hurricane that sweeps through the Florida Keys is likely to cause a lot of storm surge deaths, since many residents there are pretty stubborn about not evacuating.

Kudos and links
I thank Ken Bass for providing the details on the Lincoln High storm surge near-disaster. Ken is working on a book on Hurricane Hugo, and has written a very readable book I plan to review later this year, about a fictional Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com has a web page with links to tons of Hurricane Hugo stories. Included are links to YouTube videos of a "Rescue 911" episode that interviewed survivors of the Lincoln High storm surge scare. The show also did a re-creation of the event.

Our Historical storm surge page has SLOSH model storm surge animations of Hurricane Hugo's landafall, as well as of 39 other famous hurricanes.

Tomorrow: I'll wrap up my series on Hurricane Hugo.

Jeff Masters

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1078. WxLogic
Quoting hurricane23:


Pretty hostile in most areas across the tropical atlantic as we now move into october.New SAL surge has all but completely shut down the capeverde season with now the focus shifting close to home.I still think 1-2 sheared storms cant be ruled out but with way those westerlies have been blowing all season across the caribbean and the gulf at times it would not surprise me if this season is all but wrapped up. UK folks seemed to have been spot on with there seasonal predictions thus far.

adrian


Definitely they're doing something right with their forecast models and skills. We tend to have better agreement with their forecasts than with ours... hehe.
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1077. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Another good one HW (#1070). Fascinating stuff.
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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



Amazing that this entire tropical season in the Atlantic fell within a 4 week/28 day, period of time, if you exclude the pre-season TD.

Ana became a TS on Saturday Aug. 15th. Fred was terminated on Saturday September 12th.

No hurricane made it beyond 70W the entire season.

Looking at long-range models(ECMWF,GFS), I see very little the next 10 days. I still think 1-2 more named systems can get squeezed out in the last 69 days of this boring season.

Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if there were no more named systems.


Pretty hostile in most areas across the tropical atlantic as we now move into october.New SAL surge has all but completely shut down the capeverde season with now the focus shifting close to home.I still think 1-2 sheared storms cant be ruled out but with way those westerlies have been blowing all season across the caribbean and the gulf at times it would not surprise me if this season is all but wrapped up. UK folks seemed to have been spot on with there seasonal predictions thus far.

adrian
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Am I hearing wishcasting of X Fred forming in the Gulf?
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1073. mnborn
Quoting leftovers:
thinking of the future panhandler funny if you watch the envelope of x fred it might up end in the gulf.

-his batteries may be dead, but the gulf may kick-start him!
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1072. IKE


Flooding kills 6 in Georgia

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
So how's my (statistically based) prediction of 8-4-2 looking for this year?
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Another video sans soundtrack but amazing perspective. Always wondered what they looked like when approaching.

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Quoting stormpetrol:

Don't holler before you get out of the woods, still 2 months left and remember Oct & Nov,are the SW & NW Caribbean hotspots! Remember Paloma last year. I hope its over, but I think we can look for at least 3-5 more named systems with one being a major, jmo.



you are for geting that last YEAR WAS NOT A EL NINO YEAR this Year is and in EL Nino years the Caribbean IS SHUT DOWN do to high wind shear NOT evere year we will see a storm in the Caribbean
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1068. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:

Don't holler before you get out of the woods, still 2 months left and remember Oct & Nov,are the SW & NW Caribbean hotspots! Remember Paloma last year. I hope its over, but I think we can look for at least 3-5 more named systems with one being a major, jmo.
see u are very hopeful I have given up on the seasons
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Had to modify my comment from "knows" to "knew". People like that - hard to think of them as gone when they're still so alive on the air. Guess that's one of the reasons people want to be famous. Sort of an immortallity...
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1065. Grothar
Quoting mikatnight:
Yeah, Stevie Ray should've gotten paid by the note (little Cheech & Chong referance). Definately knew how to get the licks out...


mail!!!
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Quoting mikatnight:
Yeah, Stevie Ray should've gotten paid by the note (little Cheech & Chong referance). Definately knows how to get the licks out...


Yep. He was awesome. Went too soon. But what a gift he left us! Could watch and listen to him for hours and never get bored.
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Yeah, Stevie Ray should've gotten paid by the note (little Cheech & Chong referance). Definately knew how to get the licks out...
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Quoting mikatnight:


It's from his "Honky Chateau" album. 1st cut on side B, or the 6th track overall.


Thanks. ;)
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1055. mikatnight

Yeah. That one really gets to me. ;( Of course this one got its fair share of airplay last year.
A little Texas Flood.

Link

He did the blues like nobody else. :)
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Quoting ackee:
2009 seasons is over dont think we see anymore than one TD orTS be back 2010 hopeful the seasons wont be as dull

Don't holler before you get out of the woods, still 2 months left and remember Oct & Nov,are the SW & NW Caribbean hotspots! Remember Paloma last year. I hope its over, but I think we can look for at least 3-5 more named systems with one being a major, jmo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Wow! That would've been the most appropriate song
to the cause. It is strange he didn't sing that one. I've never heard it before but I will looking it up on Itunes in a bit.


It's from his "Honky Chateau" album. 1st cut on side B, or the 6th track overall.
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I guess I still haven’t given up on the idea. Anyone else have any lyrics in mind that are chillingly and reverberatingly appropriate to the subject?
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Wow! That would've been the most appropriate song
to the cause. It is strange he didn't sing that one. I've never heard it before but I will looking it up on Itunes in a bit.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


You may be right. :)

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NE TX SHOULD ARRIVE AT TX AND LA
COASTS AROUND SUNSET TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PENETRATION OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF
WATERS BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS. COLD FRONT SEEMS TO REACH PSN
FROM MS DELTA TO 26N94W TO 21N87W WHERE IT STALLS AND MEANDERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SINCE FRONT IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS W OF FRONT TO
N AT 15-20 KT WED...BUT EXPECT THE SHORT DURATION TO MAX SEAS AT
6 FT DESPITE CAA OVER WARM SST. MODELS HAVE BACKED ON AMPLITUDE
OF ELY WAVE MOVING THROUGH FL STRAITS TONIGHT. IN FACT UPPER
FEATURES HAVE REVERSED OVER THE E GULF PAST 24 HOURS...THE UPPER
RIDGE HAS RETRACTED WESTWARD ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING
SE TO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS. THUS...THE ELY WAVE IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE N OF CUBA AND IS QUITE BROAD FROM E-W OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. WILL MOVE AN INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS TONIGHT...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND OVER THE S
CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN AREA THU...AND THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FRI AND SAT WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
. STILL EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE THE NE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS TO 15-20 KT WED AND
15 KT THU AND A 10-15 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
FRI-SAT.



Can anyone see on satellite where the ELY wave is coming through the straits?
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Where you gonna run to, when the sea becomes the sky…
Yeah HW (#1051), see what you mean. Good post.

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Quoting WeatherStudent:
G'morning, all!


Morning WS.
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1053. ackee
2009 seasons is over dont think we see anymore than one TD orTS be back 2010 hopeful the seasons wont be as dull
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I was disappointed that Elton John didn’t perform this song as part of the Katrina benefit concert:

SALVATION



I have to say my friends,
This road goes a long, long way.
And if we're gonna to find the end,
We're gonna need a helping hand.

I have to say my friends,
We're looking for a light ahead.
In the distance a candle burns;
Salvation keeps the hungry children fed.

It's gotta take a lot of salvation.
What we need are willing hands.
You must feel the sweat in your eyes;
You must understand salvation.

A chance to put the devil down
Without the fear of hell.
Salvation spreads the gospel round
And frees you from yourself.

It's gotta take a lot of salvation -
What we need are willing hands.
You must feel the sweat in your eyes;
You must understand
Salvation.



Bernie Taupin/Elton John
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1046. mikatnight

Those are some appropriate lyrics. And I must agree with Press. That is the blues. :(

I found this one on youtube just after Ike last year. It still puts a lump in my throat to hear it. I may have posted this before. Excuse me if y'all heard.

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Naturally, Led Zeppelin provided another:

WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS

By, Robert Plant & Jimmy Page



If it keeps on rainin’, levees goin’ to break,
If it keeps on rainin’, levees goin’ to break,
When the levee breaks Ill have no place to stay.
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Lord, mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home,
Oh, well, oh, well, oh, well.
Don’t it make you feel bad
When you’re tryin’ to find your way home,
You don’t know which way to go?
If you’re goin down south
They go no work to do,
If you don’t know about Chicago.
Cryin’ wont help you, prayin’ wont do you no good,
Now, cryin’ wont help you, prayin’ wont do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama you got to move.
All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
All last night I sat on the levee and moaned,
Thinkin’ bout my baby and my happy home.
Going, gon’ to Chicago,
Gon’ to Chicago,
Sorry but I can’t take you.
Going down, going down now, going down.
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Quoting mikatnight:
I remember when Katrina hit, I told my wife – there’s going to be a lot of people killed. A week or so after the storm, I wrote Eliot Kleinberg and asked him if he was going to write a book about it (he declined – Florida history is his bag). I suggested that if he did, there were some song lyrics that could be used as chapter lead-ins (a la Stephen King). Three songs came almost immediately to mind, the first being an old one by T-Bone Walker…

STORMY MONDAY

Lyrics by, T-Bone Walker
As performed by, the Allman Brothers Band



They call it Stormy Monday
But Tuesday's just as bad.
They call it Stormy Monday
But Tuesday's just as bad.
Lord, and Wednesday's worse
And Thursday's all so sad.

The eagle flies on Friday,
Saturday I go out to play.
The eagle flies on Friday,
Saturday I go out to play.
Sunday I go to church yeah,
Get down on my knees and pray.

Lord have mercy,
Lord have mercy on me.
Lord have mercy,
Lord have mercy on me.
Oh I'm tryin', tryin', tryin' to find my baby,
Won't someone please send her home?


If that ain't the blues, I'll kiss yo'...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting BioWeather:
Do you see that convection at about 34N and 77W in the last couple of frames? It is really raining here and it looks set in for the day.


Yep I saw it. Looks like more is heading your way from out west too. We are supposed to get the tail end of the front and its rains later today.
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I remember when Katrina hit, I told my wife – there’s going to be a lot of people killed. A week or so after the storm, I wrote Eliot Kleinberg and asked him if he was going to write a book about it (he declined – Florida history is his bag). I suggested that if he did, there were some song lyrics that could be used as chapter lead-ins (a la Stephen King). Three songs came almost immediately to mind, the first being an old one by T-Bone Walker…

STORMY MONDAY

Lyrics by, T-Bone Walker
As performed by, the Allman Brothers Band



They call it Stormy Monday
But Tuesday's just as bad.
They call it Stormy Monday
But Tuesday's just as bad.
Lord, and Wednesday's worse
And Thursday's all so sad.

The eagle flies on Friday,
Saturday I go out to play.
The eagle flies on Friday,
Saturday I go out to play.
Sunday I go to church yeah,
Get down on my knees and pray.

Lord have mercy,
Lord have mercy on me.
Lord have mercy,
Lord have mercy on me.
Oh I'm tryin', tryin', tryin' to find my baby,
Won't someone please send her home?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good morning! I believe Fredex is at 30N and 75-ish W in this sat shot.

Link
Do you see that convection at about 34N and 77W in the last couple of frames? It is really raining here and it looks set in for the day.
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Wow. Homelesswanderer (#1041) Spectacular video. Hadn't seen that before. Yeah, this ain't no 2005, that's for sure (thankfully).
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1042. IKE
Yeah, 2009 is a 180 from 2005.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning Ike.
Yes this season is as strange as 2005 was but on completely opposite sides of the scales. I had never seen this video before last night. I didn't realize just how many places were hit by those hurricanes. Some in the same place twice it looked like. An equal opportunity destroyer was Mother Nature that year. WOW!

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Quoting BioWeather:
Good morning everyone. I'm waking up to what was supposed to be one more sunny day before Fred-ex was to reach us and dump some rain on us. I'm in NC about 80 miles NW of Willmington. Can someone tell me if that blob I see on the Atlantic infrared is Fred-ex sped up (since it wasn't supposed to be here until Wednesday) or if that is something else? Thank you!


Good morning! I believe Fredex is at 30N and 75-ish W in this sat shot.

Link
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1039. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



Amazing that this entire tropical season in the Atlantic fell within a 4 week/28 day, period of time, if you exclude the pre-season TD.

Ana became a TS on Saturday Aug. 15th. Fred was terminated on Saturday September 12th.

No hurricane made it beyond 70W the entire season.

Looking at long-range models(ECMWF,GFS), I see very little the next 10 days. I still think 1-2 more named systems can get squeezed out in the last 69 days of this boring season.

Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if there were no more named systems.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning everyone. I'm waking up to what was supposed to be one more sunny day before Fred-ex was to reach us and dump some rain on us. I'm in NC about 80 miles NW of Willmington. Can someone tell me if that blob I see on the Atlantic infrared is Fred-ex sped up (since it wasn't supposed to be here until Wednesday) or if that is something else? Thank you!
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I should say the highlighted area in my last post is the southern part of Fredex. I guess you could say.

SW N ATLC...
ALOFT...A COMPLICATED PATTERN OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE N
PORTION AND SEVERAL MID TO UPPER CYCLONES ELSEWHERE. STILL
EXPECTING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE BAHAMAS TO MOVE NW
REACHING THE GA/SC COAST WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE N OF CUBA THIS MORNING.
..BUT DO
SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP MOVING W THROUGH THE CAY SAL BANK
ATTM...SO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL REMNANTS OF THE ELY WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHANNEL AND FL STRAITS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AS THESE TROUGHS MOVE W OF 80W WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W. BETWEEN 65W AND 55W...THE REMNANTS OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW NEAR CURRENTLY NEAR 15N48W IS EXPECTED TO
STEER INITIALLY NW AND LATER N AND NNE ALONG 55W AND WEAKEN TO A
NE-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NW TO NEAR 23N55W THU.

THE GRADIENT N OF THIS LOW HAS A BELT OF ELY 20-25 KT WINDS FROM
18N-26N E OF 55W. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NE AND DIMINISH AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY NW
APPROACHING 55W.

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Quoting leftovers:
thinking of the future panhandler funny if you watch the envelope of x fred it might up end in the gulf.


You may be right. :)

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NE TX SHOULD ARRIVE AT TX AND LA
COASTS AROUND SUNSET TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PENETRATION OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF
WATERS BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS. COLD FRONT SEEMS TO REACH PSN
FROM MS DELTA TO 26N94W TO 21N87W WHERE IT STALLS AND MEANDERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SINCE FRONT IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS W OF FRONT TO
N AT 15-20 KT WED...BUT EXPECT THE SHORT DURATION TO MAX SEAS AT
6 FT DESPITE CAA OVER WARM SST. MODELS HAVE BACKED ON AMPLITUDE
OF ELY WAVE MOVING THROUGH FL STRAITS TONIGHT. IN FACT UPPER
FEATURES HAVE REVERSED OVER THE E GULF PAST 24 HOURS...THE UPPER
RIDGE HAS RETRACTED WESTWARD ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING
SE TO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS. THUS...THE ELY WAVE IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE N OF CUBA AND IS QUITE BROAD FROM E-W OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. WILL MOVE AN INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS TONIGHT...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND OVER THE S
CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN AREA THU...AND THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FRI AND SAT WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
. STILL EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE THE NE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS TO 15-20 KT WED AND
15 KT THU AND A 10-15 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
FRI-SAT.

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Good morning all. Boy do I envy y'all to the east. Stifling here.

79 °F
Clear
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.94 in (Rising)

Elevation: 13 ft

Well we did actually get out of the 80's. Little relief on the way for us though. :(

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

...TODAY STARTS THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...

THIS LATEST FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOMORROW AN
ADDITIONAL PUSH FROM UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY DRAG THE FRONT
EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. BUT THE
FRONT WILL MODIFY ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL NOT REFLECT ANY FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...IN SHORT NO COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE GULF WILL FORCE MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG AND LIFT OVER THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Sigh. :(
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Quoting IKE:
Long-range from Memphis,TN...

"LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THE PERIOD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONG
CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST REAL LOOK AT AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION."



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1031. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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1030. IKE
Long-range from Memphis,TN...

"LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THE PERIOD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONG
CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST REAL LOOK AT AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION."

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting leftovers:
area down near the sw carib could be the real deal by the end of this week good morning



Not much there currently. What you thinkin'?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
Coffee time! Mornin' all.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.