98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Doesn't look to bad down there...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I notice pressures are around 1010 mb in most of the Western Caribbean, the weather here looks disturbed for days


May be something a brewing
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I notice pressures are around 1010 mb in most of the Western Caribbean, the weather here looks disturbed for days
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o well :P
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Quoting Tazmanian:
the olny tthing i can think of is re moveing the quotes


Yes Taz that may be the only way they can fix it
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Quoting Weather456:


Positive NAO expected for winter but I haven't been able to get my hand on the one for 6-12 months out.


what dos that mean???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114969
the olny tthing i can think of is re moveing the quotes
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114969
wassup storm?
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Quoting Weather456:


I would also love that. Maybe then I will have an ignore list. i dont have one since it does not make any sense. The post still show up when you quote.


Exactly i was the one that asked them to install an ignore feature 2 yrs ago which they did but it no good if they dont do something about the quotes
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Quoting Hurricanejer95:
Hurricane Hugo is ancient! Want to remember more modern hurricane? I am doing Hurricane Jeanne!
My blog

Hey Jeff! Why you did not do Ike or Ivan?


maybe because he didn't fly into those.. just sayin'
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quiet... to quiet
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Quoting will40:
Hey IKE i sent a message to admin last week reguarding the Quote feature. I asked if it could be modified the just show the quote# because of people quoting the trolls. I got a mail just now saying ty for your input lmao


I would also love that. Maybe then I will have an ignore list. i dont have one since it does not make any sense. The post still show up when you quote.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hey IKE i sent a message to admin last week reguarding the Quote feature. I asked if it could be modified the just show the quote# because of people quoting the trolls. I got a mail just now saying ty for your input lmao
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i think will end up with 6 name storm 2 hurricans and 2 cat 3 or higher hurricanes


i think we may see one more name storm and no more hurricanes this year


so we may end up with 7 name storms 2 hurricanes and 2 cat 3 or higher hurricanes
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114969
ya woo ya party... ya
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Quoting IKE:
They don't even mention remnants of Freddie anymore...I think he's finally RIP...finally.

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SUN SEP 20 2009

N OF 30N W OF 72W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.




yay yay yay party party party we can now move on too some in new
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114969
448. SLU
Quoting Weather456:


I am leaning towards that. The lowest extreme would be 2006 but even that year was not a 2009.


Yeah .. time will tell

but whatever happens between now and then i'm in desperate need of some classical rainy season weather.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5066
Quoting IKE:
They don't even mention remnants of Freddie anymore...I think he's finally RIP...finally.

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SUN SEP 20 2009

N OF 30N W OF 72W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.


Great maybe the yellow circle will go away
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Quoting IKE:


Get your GED and get a job. Solves your school dilemma.

If you want a cane to get you out of school...ain't happening anytime soon.



or may be not at all this season
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114969
IKE been out of school longer that that
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444. IKE
They don't even mention remnants of Freddie anymore...I think he's finally RIP...finally.

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SUN SEP 20 2009

N OF 30N W OF 72W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Canekid98:
i want out of school and+ i love the tropics


Funny that you said you "want out of school". I want to stay IN school as long as possible (forever?) + i love the tropics.

In fact, as I approach graduation in the Spring, I am trying to figure out how to "cross over" and what classes I can take to marry what will be a Computer Science degree with meteorological interests.
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hey man happened wit IKE for 3 and a 1/2 weeks
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lol
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Quoting SLU:


Ok

So it's safe to say that normal service will resume in 2010. A season more in line with the 1995 - 2008 averages.


I am leaning towards that. The lowest extreme would be 2006 but even that year was not a 2009.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
439. IKE
Quoting Canekid98:
i want out of school and+ i love the tropics


Get your GED and get a job. Solves your school dilemma.

If you want a cane to get you out of school...ain't happening anytime soon.
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Quoting will40:
yea and if you are 98 we apologise


exactly
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There is a circulation moving southward at 15N 47W, is that 98L or the most larger middle circulation at 16N, 43W?
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
s to the k to the i to the per im the funny kid wit da kurly har
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yea and if you are 98 we apologise
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Quoting Canekid98:
:O u found me out :O


well your name does say "98"
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actually wasnt any doubt here
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432. SLU
Quoting Weather456:


Positive NAO expected for winter but I haven't been able to get my hand on the one for 6-12 months out.

Despite this, you can still teleconnect November SLP anomaly to next year. Dr Gray uses this as part of his December Outlook.


Ok

So it's safe to say that normal service will resume in 2010. A season more in line with the 1995 - 2008 averages.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5066
:O u found me out :O
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428. tornadodude

Exactly
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427. Canekid98

Figures
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Quoting will40:
if his handle has anything to do with age i understand lol


haha yeah, so he's probably like 10 or 11
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i want out of school and+ i love the tropics
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if his handle has anything to do with age i understand lol
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well... lol
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Quoting Canekid98:
i need a tropical cyclone to hit our area!


if your area is just your house, then have at it
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420. Canekid98

Are you the only one that needs it?
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Quoting SLU:


lol yeh ... neutral years tend to be very active.

What about the NAO predictions for 2010? Negative or positive?


Positive NAO expected for winter but I haven't been able to get my hand on the one for 6-12 months out.

Despite this, you can still teleconnect November SLP anomaly to next year. Dr Gray uses this as part of his December Outlook.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Shear dropping rapidly over Fred, but will it be in time, and will he stall out over the Gulf Stream?

<<>>





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419. SLU
Quoting Weather456:


The lack of tropical wave activity is also contributed by:

1) a more stable Tropical Atlantic.

2) a weaker African Easterly Jet.

3) increase tradewind flow that resulted in surface divergence (dry) rather than surface convergence (wet).

This image effectively describes the strength of the trades (size and length of vectors) and the moisture flux over the past 3 months.


These conditions are not expected to change much through the remainder of the season (October and November).

I do not encourage long-range forecast pass 3-6 months since forecast error greatly increases for climate models thereafter. However, for information purposes, Neutral ENSO predicted for the peak of the 2010 hurricane season. Not good.



lol yeh ... neutral years tend to be very active.

What about the NAO predictions for 2010? Negative or positive?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5066
Steelers vs. Bears a nail biter!
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o well >:P
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I've spent a lot of my spare time this p.m. reading about the Soufriere Hills volcanic eruption on Montserrat. This volcanic eruption has been ongoing since about 1995, and has decimated as much as 70% of the islands's area, including most of the population centres.

I think it was the talk about lahars (rain-induced volcanic mud flows) in here this morning that induced me to start reading, and the reading has been fascinating. One interesting thing that caught my eye was that heavy rain events not only caused lahars, but also may have been responsible for triggering some of the volcanic explosions there. There was mention of Hurricanes Hugo, Georges, and Omar in some of the different accounts and reports.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.