98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR:


456 can you imagine a Lenny in November lol
now that would be surprising =P


It can happen, thats why these late season storms are so uncertain. They can pop up anytime.
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Quoting futuremet:
\

That was November, and the wind shear becomes more prevalent in the Caribbean during these times. As the positive MJO left, shear started returning over the area. This caused Paloma to weaken substantially just before landfall, and Cuba's terrains eventually finished job. It is seldom to get tropical cyclogenesis in November, even in La nina years.


What landfall weakened Paloma considerably - it certainly was NOT Cayman Brac! Paloma was not a weak Hurricane when she passed over us here!
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


I sensed it your synatax over the past couple of days. Sounded bored with-Ex-Fred. So why did you continue to give updates on him.


I was, but it wouldn't be fair to those who read my blog trying to get info on him.
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iceman,

this is more updated


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Regardless of the feeling, amongst some, that the Season is over - I, for one, will not let down my guard till the first cold (ish?) winds (mid-end Nov) come whistling down from USA.

In my mind, the Season still has just over 2 months to goa nd we are approaching that time of the Season when Hurricanes can start very quickly right on our doorstep in the Caribbean - Bay of Honduras etc.

I hope those that say "the Season is over" are correct but I am a cynic - although not nearly so cynical as Mother Nature can be!
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559. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Fred's dead you say?

Thank God, I was getting highly annoyed including it in my tropical update. lol


456 can you imagine a Lenny in November lol
now that would be surprising =P
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Quoting WxLogic:
KOG & Blizzard92

Definitely valid points...

One thing to noticed too is the resemblance between El Nino/Nina conditions in 1993 and this year(as an example)... shown here as we get into Winter. Hope we don't end up with another "Super Storm". I wasn't hear in FL for that event... but from what I've read... it was definitely madness.




Nino conditions tend to produce historically more Miller A storms that ride the east coast from the Gulf than Nina conditions, but that is only if the NAO cooperates, and with a negative PDO any chance of large scale coastal storm hinges on the forecast of the NAO this year.
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Quoting Weather456:
LOL, OK.

Do you guys know there is nothing wrong with an inactive season. Even though I like tracking storms you have learn when makes then tick and what don't make them tock. This year we learned the latter. You would be amazed how much you learn by re-analyzing this season which gives you a better understand of future hurricane seasons. El Nino occurs every 4-7 years so we gotta get use to this about 3 times a decade.


Hehe... quite true.
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555. JLPR
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think cv season is overe with


I agree with that xD
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Fred's dead you say?

Thank God, I was getting highly annoyed including it in my tropical update. lol
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553. IKE
Quoting weatherbro:
Has any of you been puzzled over the official NWS forecasts today. They still want to develop a ridge in the east(with a cut-ff low over the plains) while the models(even NOAA and The Weather Channel) say the opposite.

According to NOAA, an anomalously deep long-wave trough(for late September) will anchor itself along the eastern two-thirds of the nation(giving everyone in the East a taste of Fall. Including Florida). While a weak cut-off low sits over the southwest four corners region(with a weak ridge over South Texas/Mexico).

Why hasn't The National Weather Service updated their forecasts according to the models???


I don't think they believe them. It's been forecast to happen twice before in September and it didn't materialize. From reading the discussions this afternoon, mets aren't biting on this change...yet.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but that was not a El Nino
\

That was November, and the wind shear becomes more prevalent in the Caribbean during these times. As the positive MJO left, shear started returning over the area. This caused Paloma to weaken substantially just before landfall, and Cuba's terrains eventually finished job. It is seldom to get tropical cyclogenesis in November, even in La nina years.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
FINALLY, Fred is dead




yes he is dead at last
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, the day has ended clear and dry, with no sign of Fred to speak of.... lol
ding dong the fred is dead dead dead fred

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Fred...I'm so glad we had this time together...
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Quoting canenizzle:
I have seen a-lot of you people ridicule others for saying the season was over a month ago. Looks like they were the ones who were right!


It wasn't what they said, it was how they said it. If you think a Cat 5 will form next week or if you think the season is dead, provide the science behind it! I can take a SWAG (Scientific Wild A. Guess) all day long too. A blind squirell gets a nut every now and then too!

At least when Weather456, Orca, StormW, and others say things they back it up with charts, graphs, and the science they believe hols true to form their opinion. Whether they are right or wrong, at least I can understand WHY they think that way.

I mean, heck, tell me you read tea leaves or tarot cards so at least I understand where you are coming from. Even tell me the ants were running to the west and everytime they do it means a slow season.

Enough rant... It doesn't annoy me either way....
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Has any of you been puzzled over the official NWS forecasts today. They still want to develop a ridge in the east(with a cut-ff low over the plains) while the models(even NOAA and The Weather Channel) say the opposite.

According to NOAA, an anomalously deep long-wave trough(for late September) will anchor itself along the eastern two-thirds of the nation(giving everyone in the East a taste of Fall. Including Florida). While a weak cut-off low sits over the southwest four corners region(with a weak ridge over South Texas/Mexico).

Why hasn't The National Weather Service updated their forecasts according to the models???
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LOL, OK.

Do you guys know there is nothing wrong with an inactive season. Even though I like tracking storms you have learn when makes then tick and what don't make them tock. This year we learned the latter. You would be amazed how much you learn by re-analyzing this season which gives you a better understand of future hurricane seasons. El Nino occurs every 4-7 years so we gotta get use to this about 3 times a decade.
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i think cv season is overe with
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
KOG & Blizzard92

Definitely valid points...

One thing to noticed too is the resemblance between El Nino/Nina conditions in 1993 and this year(as an example)... shown here as we get into Winter. Hope we don't end up with another "Super Storm". I wasn't hear in FL for that event... but from what I've read... it was definitely madness.



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Well, the day has ended clear and dry, with no sign of Fred to speak of.... lol
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Quoting IKE:


That's about the most sensible tropical weather outlook I've seen all week.



heh heh heh yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Watching the Emmy's and I hardly know any of these shows.
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Quoting futuremet:
Hurricane Paloma formed during a weak upward MJO






but that was not a El Nino
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
538. beell
fred and 98L report:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N72W TO 27N72W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 21N39W TO 14N41W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16213
537. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
NHC should issue a bulletin:

DUE TO EL NINO CONDITIONS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 8 MONTHS, UNTIL AT LEAST JUNE 1, 2010.


The preceding paragraph was a joke and not intended to portray a sense of safety to those living in Hurricane prone areas.


That's about the most sensible tropical weather outlook I've seen all week.
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Quoting canenizzle:
I have seen a-lot of you people ridicule others for saying the season was over a month ago. Looks like they were the ones who were right!


Haven't you seen the last few posts? There's a high chance of a late season!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
lol thought I was the only one thinking something like that.... they are prolly going to be busier than us this year, too....


They are very good training exercises.
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533. IKE
Bye-bye Fred. Bye-bye 98L....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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Quoting Blizzard92:

It seems the CFS and other ensembles consistently overestimate the true strength of ENSO conditions. But despite cooling in Nino 1+2, an unfavorable negative PDO, an unfavorable positive SOI; a west based weak El Nino looks to be a good estimate for the upcoming Fall months.


As long as we don't end up in a La Chinga, I am ok with that...
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Hurricane Paloma formed during a weak upward MJO



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Quoting WxLogic:


Later in the period as you can see on the CFS shear map forecast... you can see the arrival of a rather strong subtropical yet towards the beginning of 2010.

Also, latest ENSO trends are still showing a moderate El Nino still persisting...



There's a good chance that we might be experiencing some unusual SVR WX down in the S for quite sometime and I won't be surprised that some state(s) might have wished to received to receive a couple tropical disturbances than to experience a tornado, large hail, etc... which can be localized but with higher damage potential than a hurricane due to El Nino.

It seems the CFS and other ensembles consistently overestimate the true strength of ENSO conditions. But despite cooling in Nino 1+2, an unfavorable negative PDO, an unfavorable positive SOI; a west based weak El Nino looks to be a good estimate for the upcoming Fall months.
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Quoting Weather456:
I cannot wait until the Southern Hemisphere Season starts. You can track up to 30 cyclones between the SW, SE, and SW pacific Basin.
lol thought I was the only one thinking something like that.... they are prolly going to be busier than us this year, too....
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Quoting WxLogic:


Later in the period as you can see on the CFS shear map forecast... you can see the arrival of a rather strong subtropical yet towards the beginning of 2010.

Also, latest ENSO trends are still showing a moderate El Nino still persisting...



There's a good chance that we might be experiencing some unusual SVR WX down in the S for quite sometime and I won't be surprised that some state(s) might have wished to received to receive a couple tropical disturbances than to experience a tornado, large hail, etc... which can be localized but with higher damage potential than a hurricane due to El Nino.
this is highly possible as we progress into fall winter season and how cold the airmasses from nw really get to collide with the warmer and moister air from gom thoses sst's havent cooled so now we depend on the cooling affect from the nw to droppem but thats a slower process then when rtn flow comes in off gom it will in all likly hood be more energized to create the severe and heavy winter weather
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
527. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Been a Cape Verde year



Could you imagine if the Cape Verde season would have been shut down this year xD
it would had been ridiculously quiet
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Quoting JLPR:


yeah now that one was impressive
for a moment I thought that was the track that Erika from this year would take
I was very wrong :P


The track of that storm was the initial forecast of Erika this yr by the ECMWF.
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525. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
JLPR

Look at Erika 12 years ago lol



yeah now that one was impressive
for a moment I thought that was the track that Erika from this year would take
I was very wrong :P
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NHC should issue a bulletin:

DUE TO EL NINO CONDITIONS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 8 MONTHS, UNTIL AT LEAST JUNE 1, 2010.


The preceding paragraph was a joke and not intended to portray a sense of safety to those living in Hurricane prone areas.
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Been a Cape Verde year

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El Nino's return to the Pacific after a four-year absence changes the hurricane season forecast from near to below normal for tropical storm systems to above normal, says Jim Weyman, Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.
There is also a greater possibility of late-season tropical cyclones, less rainfall during the wet season and more high surf.
This is troubling because many parts of the state have been dry in the past few months, he said.
But he had good news for surfers. Usually in El Nino years, more high surf occurs on the North Shore as storm systems push closer to Hawaii in the winter, he said.
El Nino is expected to continue through the winter and into next year, NOAA said in a report yesterday on its Web site.
El Ninos normally last about a year and have wide-ranging impacts. In the past they have caused damaging winter storms in California, more storms across the southern United States, severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia, NOAA said.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369


Hurricane Juan near peak intensity
Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle




An upper level low pressure system combined with a tropical wave developed a broad trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico on October 24. A rapid increase in cloudiness and convection led to the formation of a tropical depression on October 26. A high pressure system to its northeast forced it westward, where it became Tropical Storm Juan later on the 26th.

At the time and throughout its lifetime, Juan was very disorganized, and resembled a subtropical cyclone with its winds well away from the center. A developing trough brought the storm northward, where it became better organized. Early on October 28, Juan reached hurricane strength, and hours later it reached a peak of 85 mph (140 km/h) winds.

Under the influence of a large scale upper-level low pressure area, Juan executed a cyclonic loop off the Louisiana coast later on October 28. It turned northward, and hit near Morgan City, Louisiana on the morning of the 29th. Still under the influence of the low, Juan again looped to the southeast, and weakened to a tropical storm over land on the 29th, and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on the 30th over Vermilion Bay.

Juan paralleled the southern Louisiana coastline and crossed the extreme southeast portion of the state on October 31. Over the open waters of the Gulf, Juan restrengthened to a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm, just before hitting near the Alabama/Florida border that night. Once over land, Juan rapidly weakened, and became extratropical over Tennessee on November 1. Its remnants accelerated northward into Canada by the morning of the 3rd. Of interest, an upper level low closed off in the wake of Juan, forming a new occluded cyclone, which added to the rainfall totals across Virginia and West Virginia. The combined impact of Juan and the occluded cyclone that formed in its wake led to a flood of record across West Virginia.
[edit] Impact

Hurricane Juan caused $1.5 billion in damage (1985 US dollars, $2.71 billion in 2005 USD), most of it from crop damage. At the time, Juan was the 8th costliest hurricane in history, and is currently the 24th. [1] It later caused extensive flooding across the Mid-Atlantic states as a partial remnant, causing an additional $1.3 billion and 50 deaths not included in its final effects.
[edit] Gulf of Mexico

Early in its lifetime, Juan caused 25 to 35 foot (7.5 to 10.5 meter) swells, damaging several offshore oil platforms and overturning two. High winds prior to the storm's development encumbered evacuation efforts. Because of this, 9 people died, either from toppled oil rigs or from drowning while being transported from the rigs. The oil industry suffered greatly from the hurricane, both due to the lack of production and from lost oil rigs.
[edit] Northern Gulf Coast
Juan's storm total rainfall.

Because the hurricane looped twice near the coastline, Hurricane Juan brought extensive rainfall along the northern Gulf Coast, particularly across Louisiana and Texas. Deweyville, Texas received a maximum of 8.7 inches (220 mm) and Mobile, Alabama reached a total of 11.9 inches (302 mm), while Louisiana reported over to 10 inches (254 mm), with a storm maximum of 17.78 inches (452 mm) of rain in Galliano according to information compiled from the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. Storm surge was moderate, peaking at 8.2 feet (2.5 m) on the southern portion of Louisiana, though tides returned to below normal levels when offshore winds forced the surge out to sea. A few small tornadoes were reported along Juan's outer edges, though little damage was reported.

Severe coastal flooding resulted in significant crop damage and loss of livestock in southern Louisiana. Thousands of houses were flooded and destroyed, mainly around Lake Pontchartrain, though property damage was seen from Texas through the Florida Panhandle, albeit much less than Louisiana. 2 people drowned from the flood waters in Louisiana, and 1 person died in a boating accident of the Texas coast. There were 1,357 injuries reported by FEMA, though most were minor. [2] Total damage from Hurricane Juan amounted to $1.5 billion (1985 USD), making it one of the costliest hurricanes at the time and making it the costliest non-retired hurricane name
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The stats so far

6 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 majors and 3 unnamed storms.

lol
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JLPR

Look at Erika 12 years ago lol

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517. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:



I'm aware that there are October storms in El Nino years but it tends to be where the seasons shuts off.


yep
I just cant imagine anything in November =P
It would be a strong cold front all the way south to the islands with a hurricane beside it? xD
Since winter wants to start already that should shut down the Atlantic.

The problem is all the fuel in the Western Caribbean will remain unused for next year :|
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Quoting futuremet:
Initially, the CFS expected the Caribbean to shut down in October...



Later in the period as you can see on the CFS shear map forecast... you can see the arrival of a rather strong subtropical yet towards the beginning of 2010.

Also, latest ENSO trends are still showing a moderate El Nino still persisting...



There's a good chance that we might be experiencing some unusual SVR WX down in the S for quite sometime and I won't be surprised that some state(s) might have wished to received to receive a couple tropical disturbances than to experience a tornado, large hail, etc... which can be localized but with higher damage potential than a hurricane due to El Nino.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.