98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 616 - 566

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Hard to believe the season may end with 6 named storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Didn't take long for 98L to no longer be an invest. The Atlantic is shut down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
LBARS is leading with least error followed by the OFCL forecast of both Fred-ex & 98L today.. Second day in a row LBAR has lead in the forecast of Fred-ex. Currently LBARS takes Fred-ex nearly to SC where it recuves & follows the coastline off shore. LBAR takes 98L on it's current course wnw then sharply recurves it.


It also led with Erika
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
613. Skyepony (Mod)
LBARS is leading with least error followed by the OFCL forecast of both Fred-ex & 98L today.. Second day in a row LBAR has lead in the forecast of Fred-ex. Currently LBARS takes Fred-ex nearly to SC where it recuves & follows the coastline off shore. LBAR takes 98L on it's current course wnw then sharply recurves it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR:


oh yeah
but that one was more towards the NE
Lenny moved more towards the east for awhile
that's nuts


true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
610. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


omAR 2008


oh yeah
but that one was more towards the NE
Lenny moved more towards the east for awhile
that's nuts
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting JLPR:


but Lenny was a freaky storm
it moved backwards =P
I hope no late season storm gets that idea lol


omAR 2008
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
608. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


It can happen, thats why these late season storms are so uncertain. They can pop up anytime.


but Lenny was a freaky storm
it moved backwards =P
I hope no late season storm gets that idea lol
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting kmanislander:



I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.


Know what you mean...had to rebuild mine after Wilma.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Yalahaman:
LA CHINGA! Not THE LA CHINGA!!!


Watch your language - this is a family blog =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
605. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:



I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.


Kman, what storm damage your home, Paloma?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:



I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.


One of the benefits is stated in post 546.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this is the last full week of SEP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Paloma;



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bigguy675:


If 2005 was neutral....tell my house the Hurricane Wilma didn't happen.



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting Weather456:



LOL I posted it earlier. 2009 is anomaly and low seasonal activity was not contributed by El Nino alone. It coincided with an array of conditions that caused not only the Atlantic to suffer low activity but the entire globe. The fact of the matter is that El Nino coincided with a global TC anomaly which created a double negative over the Atlantic Basin. As quiet as 2006 was, it was more active now than 2009.


The global low activity has also affected the Eastern and central pacific which is suppose to be above average during El Nino years. The intra-seasonal variables like the MJO have just been having weak signals this yr.




I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Classic extratropical transition of a strong tropical cyclone into a strong extratropical cyclone."
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/archive/1980s/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time to start on Dan Brown's new novel, The Lost Symbol.

Catch you all soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

I have been posting for some time that this season could be over by early October. It would certainly appear that the CV season is finished. In fact it looks like late October out in the Atlantic already.

Little is left of what was 98L and from yesterday morning it was fairly obvious that due to the poor organization of that system it was on borrowed time.

I am a little surprised that a weak El Nino could produce such relatively quiet conditions in the Atl..

Shear has not been the only storm killer this year. If anything dry air left over from the SAL outbreak did more damage than shear.

Still, who's complaining. In these tough economic times who needs more adversity ?.



LOL I posted it earlier. 2009 is anomaly and low seasonal activity was not contributed by El Nino alone. It coincided with an array of conditions that caused not only the Atlantic to suffer low activity but the entire globe. The fact of the matter is that El Nino coincided with a global TC anomaly which created a double negative over the Atlantic Basin. As quiet as 2006 was, it was more active now than 2009.


The global low activity has also affected the Eastern and central pacific which is suppose to be above average during El Nino years. The intra-seasonal variables like the MJO have just been having weak signals this yr.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening All,


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Dead quiet at the peak of the season seems like we are almost done with 2009 season, mother nature is giving us a break this year.

Thanks GOD!

A lot of time to watch Football. LoL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Glad to hear it Kman...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


I;m not, can't use a 'cane at the moment..

BTW, KMAN, did anything spontaneously develope or pop up at the part last night? You left in rather a hurry...


No problems at the party. Got the last one out at 12:30 LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

I have been posting for some time that this season could be over by early October. It would certainly appear that the CV season is finished. In fact it looks like late October out in the Atlantic already.

Little is left of what was 98L and from yesterday morning it was fairly obvious that due to the poor organization of that system it was on borrowed time.

I am a little surprised that a weak El Nino could produce such relatively quiet conditions in the Atl..

Shear has not been the only storm killer this year. If anything dry air left over from the SAL outbreak did more damage than shear.

Still, who's complaining. In these tough economic times who needs more adversity ?.


I;m not, can't use a 'cane at the moment..

BTW, KMAN, did anything spontaneously develope or pop up at the part last night? You left in rather a hurry...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening all

I have been posting for some time that this season could be over by early October. It would certainly appear that the CV season is finished. In fact it looks like late October out in the Atlantic already.

Little is left of what was 98L and from yesterday morning it was fairly obvious that due to the poor organization of that system it was on borrowed time.

I am a little surprised that a weak El Nino could produce such relatively quiet conditions in the Atl..

Shear has not been the only storm killer this year. If anything dry air left over from the SAL outbreak did more damage than shear.

Still, who's complaining. In these tough economic times who needs more adversity ?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicofcancer:
Hey Dakster, did you catch the latest rankings?
Canes #9 !!!


WOHOO!!! We're finally ranked in the top ten.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
588. IKE
Quoting weatherbro:
I don't think they believe them. It's been forecast to happen twice before in September and it didn't materialize. From reading the discussions this afternoon, mets aren't biting on this change...yet.


Personally, I think it's those pesky cut off lows. Throws everyone off. Once those make way, I firmly believe it will come in earnest!


You're right. Those cutoff lows and the difficulty to forecast them has made it hard on forecasters.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
If ENSO looks like it will be neutral for the 2010 cane season by next Spring, then the confidence of a busier season will rise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane556:
was 2005 a nuetral hurricane season?


If 2005 was neutral....tell my house the Hurricane Wilma didn't happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


As long as we don't end up in a La Chinga, I am ok with that...
LA CHINGA! Not THE LA CHINGA!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In a normal season one has to keep an eye for draped fronts in the gulf/caribbean but given the fact that el nino is present tends to really keep caribbean/gulf development at very low minimum. I'd say this season could be over but one cant rule out something weak in the gulf along a stalled frontal boundary. Other then that this winter should be interesting for the southeast with potential severe weather outbreaks.

adrian

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't think they believe them. It's been forecast to happen twice before in September and it didn't materialize. From reading the discussions this afternoon, mets aren't biting on this change...yet.


Personally, I think it's those pesky cut off lows. Throws everyone off. Once those make way, I firmly believe it will come in earnest!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
582. JRRP
Quoting hurricane556:
was 2005 a nuetral hurricane season?

yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane556:
was 2005 a nuetral hurricane season?


yea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


That doesn't sound good for me, Grothar, and everybody in South Florida. What do you think the chances are of another RI like Wilma down there in the Western Caribbean FutureMet?


The question also goes to anybody else as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
El Nino should peak sometime between November and January and will then gradually diminish as we head through the spring. This will leave neutral ENSO conditions in place for the 2010 ATL season.


I do for sure foresee a busier 2010 season. There won't be or in other words... it won't take much to reheat the ATL, Carib, and GOM (but more specially the latter 2) and finally El Nino shouldn't be a prevalent as it was this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
was 2005 a nuetral hurricane season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


Yes, the MJO will cause a significant swing in tropical cyclone activity during October. I was puzzled over the past weeks of why the CFS is expects anomalously high shear in the western Caribbean when an MJO will move into the area. A planetary scale pattern like the MJO have synoptic and mesoscale features embedded in it. The preliminary CFS forecasts for October were not initializing the wind shear/MJO relationship properly. Surface convergence at the surface often creates a positive feedback of upper high pressure systems in the upper air. Those unusually high SSTs we have been seeing in the Bahamas and the GOM are working their way to the Caribbea--so we can expect this to kick some activity. Hopefully a potent ridge will set up across the east CONUS, and steer these systems west....I doubt that will happen, however.


That doesn't sound good for me, Grothar, and everybody in South Florida. What do you think the chances are of another RI like Wilma down there in the Western Caribbean FutureMet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SSideBrac:
Regardless of the feeling, amongst some, that the Season is over - I, for one, will not let down my guard till the first cold (ish?) winds (mid-end Nov) come whistling down from USA.

In my mind, the Season still has just over 2 months to goa nd we are approaching that time of the Season when Hurricanes can start very quickly right on our doorstep in the Caribbean - Bay of Honduras etc.

I hope those that say "the Season is over" are correct but I am a cynic - although not nearly so cynical as Mother Nature can be!
ayup.

Ain't over till I've seen the last play....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


Hehe... quite true.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ding dong the fred is dead dead dead fred

lol
Was just singing the same tune! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
El Nino should peak sometime between November and January and will then gradually diminish as we head through the spring. This will leave neutral ENSO conditions in place for the 2010 ATL season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Fred's dead you say?

Thank God, I was getting highly annoyed including it in my tropical update. lol



yup fred is dead
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting futuremet:


She was a voluptuous hurricane indeed. Cayman Brac was to small to cause signficant weakening to Paloma. It eventually weakened significantly later that same day, due to increasing upper level winds from the west. It made landfall in Cuba as a weak Cat 2...


Hehe... "voluptuous" nice choice of word to describe Paloma... she was definitely a "keeper" before she decided to hit land. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
<
Quoting SSideBrac:


What landfall weakened Paloma considerably - it certainly was NOT Cayman Brac! Paloma was not a weak Hurricane when she passed over us here!
I was wondering that myself. I assume they meant Cuba as if Cayman Brac doesn't exist. May be small but still land and Paloma definitely made landfall there with no weakening whatsoever.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SSideBrac:


What landfall weakened Paloma considerably - it certainly was NOT Cayman Brac! Paloma was not a weak Hurricane when she passed over us her!


She was a voluptuous hurricane indeed. Cayman Brac was to small to cause signficant weakening to Paloma. It eventually weakened significantly later that same day, due to increasing upper level winds from the west. It made landfall in Cuba as a weak Cat 2...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
568. IKE
Season isn't over. There's 71 days, 4 hours and 29 minutes left. There's a 2nd peak in early October. MJO is suppose to come back by then. Probably good for 1-2 more named systems.

Saying that...this season, so far, has been a yawner.

My season prediction of 10-4-2....the 10 part, probably isn't going to happen.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting JLPR:


456 can you imagine a Lenny in November lol
now that would be surprising =P


It can happen, thats why these late season storms are so uncertain. They can pop up anytime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 616 - 566

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
65 °F
Overcast