98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Which direction is ex Fred going now...towards east coast or still Florida/GOM?
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Convection slowly increasing with X Fred. Link
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I thought el nino gave colder than average temps for the SE.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Watch him stall before he makes landfall, and grow into this monster that nobody suspected, feeding off the Gulf Stream beneath him, like some kind of vampire.

I really don't trust this one to just go to the grave quietly.



doomcasting much??
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8326
Quoting markymark1973:
ROFL X Fred might be trying a comeback. This is the most convection it has had near the center. He is just like Freddy Krueger:)


Il n'en est rien.
Vous etes fou.
Bonne nuit!
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C'est interessante.

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ROFL X Fred might be trying a comeback. This is the most convection it has had near the center. He is just like Freddy Krueger:)
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fred ce n'est pas rien.
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Quoting JLPR:
weak LLC still with Ex-Fred

im impressed there is still something left =O


Watch him stall before he makes landfall, and grow into this monster that nobody suspected, feeding off the Gulf Stream beneath him, like some kind of vampire.

I really don't trust this one to go to the grave quietly.

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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
651. LBAR
Quoting Skyepony:
LBARS is leading with least error followed by the OFCL forecast of both Fred-ex & 98L today.. Second day in a row LBAR has lead in the forecast of Fred-ex. Currently LBARS takes Fred-ex nearly to SC where it recuves & follows the coastline off shore. LBAR takes 98L on it's current course wnw then sharply recurves it.


We legacy models get no respect. :-D
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Quoting JLPR:


that wave was actually part of 98L, it has shear to contend with

figures...
wilma showed up in october.
am sure there is a long record of sept. hurricanes.
while cape verde season may be ending, i recall early in the season someone saying this could be the year of the 'home grown' canes.
i'm with the contingent who keeps an eye out and doesn't forget that we have a responsibility to our neighbors and friends to let them know if something is coming their way.
by the way, kudos to the mayor of charleston for his early warning on hugo (unlike the mayor of galveston who goes down in infamy as far as i'm concerned...).
best regards,
chicklit.
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649. JRRP
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Lenny
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8326
647. JLPR
weak LLC still with Ex-Fred

im impressed there is still something left =O
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
646. JLPR
Quoting Chicklit:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 21N39W TO 14N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 37W-43W.


that wave was actually part of 98L, it has shear to contend with
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Fred's still out there.
We'll be talking about Fred for another week or so. Steering currents are weak. A loose swirl could sit, stall, meander, or loop.
Viva Fred!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5577
644. JLPR
Quoting vince1966:
What book of wishes are you reading from?


reality
we dont know what could happen int eh future
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Lenny
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8326

Will shear rip this one apart too?

At this point, I want something to make it into the Caribbean. They need the rain.
So shoot me.
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Quoting weathers4me:
Mother nature is patient and she only dances to her own drum. We cannot say for sure that this season is over. Look for some late season surprises from her. Especially the GOM.
What book of wishes are you reading from?
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fred is a peanut.
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This irreverence for Fred will not be tolerated here, thank you very much. He's currently benefiting from a trough to his immediate north, which has contributed to a lowering shear environment over the top of him. Not to mention the fact that there's a reasonable amount of moisture to sink his teeth into, AND the Gulf Stream to feed on.

Fred lives !!!




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.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8326

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 21N39W TO 14N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 37W-43W.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ding dong the fred is dead dead dead fred

lol
Is Fred really dead this time, or is there a chance for( dare I say it ) regeneration?
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Hurricane Lenny was the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in November, and quite unusual in that it moved west-to-east across the Caribbean. Lenny was the first hurricane to affect the Virgin Islands from the southwest since Hurricane Klaus in 1984.

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Quoting Grothar:


boy, What a wishcaster you are!! How are you Allstar?


Good, how about yourself?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hey Cybr...over that nasty flu?


Think so, going to call in tomorrow just in case though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Mother nature is patient and she only dances to her own drum. We cannot say for sure that this season is over. Look for some late season surprises from her. Especially the GOM.
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Hey Cybr...over that nasty flu?
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Alright, looking at all in front of me and how quite September has been (only 2 named so far, August was more active)

I'm thinking 8 named, 3 Hurricanes, 2 Majors for the season. +2 unnamed post season IMO to 10 named or aka 2006 numbers.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Quoting BenRMac:


Watch your language - this is a family blog =)
Apologies!Accidental stupidity!
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Quoting AllStar17:
I would agree. The Atlantic is so quiet you
could hear a pin drop in the ocean right now.

Fred and 98L have both met their demises.

However--don't call me a wishcaster--but we should keep tabs on the basin until Oct. 30 in case a storm gets the idea of threatening the US, whether it be a tropical storm or hurricane.


boy, What a wishcaster you are!! How are you Allstar?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
I would agree. The Atlantic is so quiet you
could hear a pin drop in the ocean right now.

Fred and 98L have both met their demises.

However--don't call me a wishcaster--but we should keep tabs on the basin until Oct. 30 in case a storm gets the idea of threatening the US, whether it be a tropical storm or hurricane.
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Hi guys what up I feel kinda sorry about 98L by the way yesterday we got pounded with rain and lighting to not much in rain and only a little lighting today
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Quoting IKE:
Season isn't over. There's 71 days, 4 hours and 29 minutes left. There's a 2nd peak in early October. MJO is suppose to come back by then. Probably good for 1-2 more named systems.

Saying that...this season, so far, has been a yawner.

My season prediction of 10-4-2....the 10 part, probably isn't going to happen.


Yes, the season is not over yet!!! Fred Ex & 98L have gone "POOF", but there will be a few more over the next 70+ days!!

This season is quiet, for some a disappointment! Then I remember that these Tropical systems cause all sorts of problems around the Atlantic Basin!!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hard to believe the season may end with 6 named storms.
if does it will be added to the years 65 77 82 86 that it has occur
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53774
Looks like a good possibility right now. In El Nino years the Caribbean does not produce that many storms and they have had some of the most hostile conditions in the entire Atlantic.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hard to believe the season may end with 6 named storms.


It was predicted by some. But I dont think it will end with 6.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hard to believe the season may end with 6 named storms.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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