98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JRRP:

Link



i mean the link too the main site that mode run was on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting iceman55:
chilling and eat arby's mmmm


sounds good to me
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting intunewindchime:
Druseljic, I am a she...


My apologies :-)
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Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude


whats up man?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting intunewindchime:
Goodnight everyone!


have a good one!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
708. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:



link

Link
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Goodnight everyone!
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Quoting JRRP:
06 nov



link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting druseljic:


I feel for you! He's right about Pensacola though, no jobs. I've never seen anything like this in my 40+ years. Not wishing for a storm but it would be nice to find a job other than delivering pizzas. The sunsets here are still incredible though :)


That's actually a job I liked... hard work, closing the store, doing all the dishes, cleaning out, (But I thought I was just going to drive for pizzas!) but I made minimum wage + tips, with the car's gas included in the wages which was neat. Unfortunately haven't found something in that 'sector' yet lol

There's a garage store cashier job I might just pounce on... and Old Navy again looking for hires. I'm tired of spending 30 + minutes of my life filling blanks and never getting called for an interview (years).
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Quoting iceman55:
hey matt their man lolol


hey iceman lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, you are good at covering yourself. By the way, they kept mentioning the extreme heat at the stadium due to the weather, especially in the last 4 minutes. Did you see that weather in the Stadium, you know, the last 4 minutes. I am a season ticket holder for the Giants. But when I go to NY it rains a lot. We had to buy the license for the seats this year because they are building a new Giants Stadium. I hope the weather stays good for the games when I am there.


well I am certainly glad for you, and hope you enjoy your season watching the Giants, but bring your umbrella! it might rain, some TROPICAL moisture might get picked up by a front and bring some rain to your games
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, you are good at covering yourself. By the way, they kept mentioning the extreme heat at the stadium due to the weather, especially in the last 4 minutes. Did you see that weather in the Stadium, you know, the last 4 minutes. I am a season ticket holder for the Giants. But when I go to NY it rains a lot. We had to buy the license for the seats this year because they are building a new Giants Stadium. I hope the weather stays good for the games when I am there.


Boy is that a treat!
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Druseljic, I am a she...

Pizza delivery is booming out by Perdido key
. It's one of the few growth industries.
Sad though, very sad.
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700. JRRP
06 nov
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Quoting intunewindchime:
Serialteg, we feel for you. All we really have going for us is the navy base and tourism. The insurance issues from Ivan and Katrina helped doubly kill the housing market, and to top it off our county is the poorest of all of FL state. The few big corps we had left. I hear St Louis is booming. Might head there. Hope you find something soon.


Thank you, eventually one finds a way, right now I'm in unemployment and at least that's something, have free state medical insurance (only for poor people) and am studying for computer engineering soon (doing the prerequisites for entering the faculty, already have a B.A. in Communications that isn't worth ---- job-wise).
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Quoting tornadodude:


oh by far, tonight was the biggest live audience for a regular season NFL game in history. Including international games. The second biggest was in Mexico (which borders the GOM, and is a breeding ground for some TROPICAL cyclones)


Boy, you are good at covering yourself. By the way, they kept mentioning the extreme heat at the stadium due to the weather, especially in the last 4 minutes. Did you see that weather in the Stadium, you know, the last 4 minutes. I am a season ticket holder for the Giants. But when I go to NY it rains a lot. We had to buy the license for the seats this year because they are building a new Giants Stadium. I hope the weather stays good for the games when I am there.
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Quoting serialteg:


Haven't gotten a job since January here in Puerto Rico.


I feel for you! He's right about Pensacola though, no jobs. I've never seen anything like this in my 40+ years. Not wishing for a storm but it would be nice to find a job other than delivering pizzas. The sunsets here are still incredible though :)
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Going to bed...what's that in GOM? Anything to be concerned about?


you shouldnt have to worry about it, high shear and no tropical development expected
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting Grothar:


for now, but there were 105K tonight. I think they said it broke an attendance records.

The electronics TV's etc. cost as much as their first stadium totally.


You know what they say, the dollar weighs less every year ...
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Serialteg, we feel for you. All we really have going for us is the navy base and tourism. The insurance issues from Ivan and Katrina helped doubly kill the housing market, and to top it off our county is the poorest of all of FL state. The few big corps we had left. I hear St Louis is booming. Might head there. Hope you find something soon.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that is for winter 2010 not for 2009


it said January through March 2010, which is this winter
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1024 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009


THE TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE ONSHORE DURING
WEDNESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. UNLESS THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWER IN ITS DISSIPATION...WINDS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN 15 KT AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 4 FT.
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Quoting serialteg:


101K+ people in there. Is it the biggest NFL stadium?


oh by far, tonight was the biggest live audience for a regular season NFL game in history. Including international games. The second biggest was in Mexico (which borders the GOM, and is a breeding ground for some TROPICAL cyclones)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting serialteg:


101K+ people in there. Is it the biggest NFL stadium?


for now, but there were 105K tonight. I think they said it broke an attendance records.

The electronics TV's etc. cost as much as their first stadium totally.
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Quoting iceman55:




The Farmers' Almanac is out and is going for a cold winter for much of the country



that is for winter 2010 not for 2009
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting intunewindchime:
Sadly the economy here in Pensacola is so bad that a storm may actually be a boom for the economy.... That is screwed up I know, but it is the worst here in over 20 years....Businesses closing daily, everything for rent or sale. No jobs, everyone is leaving like rats on a sinking ship... SAD


Haven't gotten a job since January here in Puerto Rico.
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Quoting Grothar:


Good, did you see Eli in the last minute. He moved that field. Oh, it was very hot in Dallas. Make sure I don't get reported.


shew yeah, pretty humid too. must be a lot of TROPICAL moisture in the air. but yes, the Red Socks won today too. it was actually a nice sunny day there. little TROPICAL moisture there.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting Grothar:


Good, did you see Eli in the last minute. He moved that field. Oh, it was very hot in Dallas. Make sure I don't get reported.


101K+ people in there. Is it the biggest NFL stadium?
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Sadly the economy here in Pensacola is so bad that a storm may actually be a boom for the economy.... That is screwed up I know, but it is the worst here in over 20 years....Businesses closing daily, everything for rent or sale. No jobs, everyone is leaving like rats on a sinking ship... SAD
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Watch him stall before he makes landfall, and grow into this monster that nobody suspected, feeding off the Gulf Stream beneath him, like some kind of vampire.

I really don't trust this one to go to the grave quietly.



Not with you on the nobody, as we all have seen the favorable conditions he may step into if still alive.

Surprised by how 98L just blew to smithereens. Still has more rotation on it in TPW than Fred, though
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Going to bed...what's that in GOM? Anything to be concerned about?
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Going into eclipse now. X Fred will probably be a naked swirl by morning. Then again he might bring us a surprise :)
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Quoting iceman55:
Grothar .yeah good game.


Good, did you see Eli in the last minute. He moved that field. Oh, it was very hot in Dallas. Make sure I don't get reported.
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Link


Not much left to it
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Just so I stay on topic, it was really hot in Dallas!!!!
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Giants just beat Dallas by 2, with 4 seconds left Tynes kicked a 29 yard field goal. Unbelievable. Dallas called a time-out on the last 1 second and the Giants had to re-kick and did it. Just had to post this one. What a game.
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Which direction is ex Fred going now...towards east coast or still Florida/GOM?


If you look at the [GOES=12] lower cloud product, Fred appears to be moving due west, and the lower level steering models would agree.

The current precip. animation also suggests a future westerly path.



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Zombie Fred :) Convection will probably die off soon and pulse back later tomorrow lol
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I like to lurk because I have no idea what I'm looking at or talking about when it comes to weather. Is anyone concerned about the blob in the GOM or is it just a thundershower?
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Which direction is ex Fred going now...towards east coast or still Florida/GOM?

Most likely SC/NC since it reformed farther north.
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Which direction is ex Fred going now...towards east coast or still Florida/GOM?



between Georgia and South Carolina whats left of it mostly just a rain event
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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