98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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766. JLPR
The only area that looks remotely interesting is waaay south of the Cape Verde islands at 5 -6N


and that's probably the ITCZ lol
well nothing to watch today
im off to bed :)
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Nite all...thanks to those who replied... :)
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Let's face it! It's been a "lite" year. I'm glad y'all got a bit of a break.
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Quoting tornadodude:
well im going to bed, i have an 830 class to go to, so goodnight guys


Take care Dude!
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Water vapor imagery of Fred suggests an improving environment overhead. Almost all of the deep convection to his west has subsided or moved north of his latitude. This is what has been contributing to a good deal of the shear.

However, judging from his size, I think we should reclassify Fred as a tornado instead, with yet another amazing curtain call.




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well im going to bed, i have an 830 class to go to, so goodnight guys
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Quoting iceman55:
.tornadodude .yeah .call Snowman mrs fred lol


Mrs. Fred the snow-women haha alright
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Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude .Make A Snowman IN COLD


well, if we get enough snow this winter, i will make one and post a picture of it
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
I know this season isn't over yet....but it does seem to be ending. Am I wrong?


In my opinion it never really fully got going, but it does seem to be slowing down. however, the season is not over until november so, time will tell
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Quoting iceman55:
roast beef sandwiches

With chocolate shake and potato cake I hope.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We go on vacation a week and we come back and people are still talking about Fred? And it's been what--8 days? This is crazier than Karen ;)

Viva Fred!!
It's been 14 days!
It could be another 14.
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Quoting tornadodude:


hmm, weird, I could use some orange juice and some sleep, but I just finished writing an essay and I will settle for water


What was the subject? If was on deserts perhaps you have a subsconscious desire to quench your thirst. And the same to you :P
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I know this season isn't over yet....but it does seem to be ending. Am I wrong?
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Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude . yeah me to.


I love snow
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Quoting Grothar:


All kidding aside. When you get a craving for orange juice, your sugar level or potassium level may be low. It can happen when you study alot.


hmm, weird, I could use some orange juice and some sleep, but I just finished writing an essay and I will settle for water
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I know the season isn't over yet...but this season does seem to be ending. Am I wrong?

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Quoting tornadodude:


oh wow, learn new things every day! I love fruit juices, they are so good, but yeah I didnt know when the growing season was. you should hook me up with some pure Florida orange juice :P


All kidding aside. When you get a craving for orange juice, your sugar level or potassium level may be low. It can happen when you study alot.
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Quoting iceman55:



show


that is interesting, I hope we have a lot of snow here
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anybody have an image of Africa. Looks like another big wave over central Africa, but I can only see half of it. Come on ice, finish the sandwhich and post your pictures.
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Quoting Grothar:


Most oranges only bloom during the winter. They are just getting little green bumps. Same for most grapefruits. The avocado and mangos grow in the summer. See we have seasons, too! They made us cut down our two orange trees because of the Mediteranean fruit fly. I told them I was Norwegian, but it didn't make a difference. Most of Dade County and Broward county had to cut down all private trees. I miss them. I do have a small mango tree left and a lot of bananas. The call the variety manzanas which actually means apple in Spanish. Very good though. See my blog


oh wow, learn new things every day! I love fruit juices, they are so good, but yeah I didnt know when the growing season was. you should hook me up with some pure Florida orange juice :P
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738. JRRP
728
friday
i think........


out!
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Quoting tornadodude:


keeping things weather related, good call, but I have an odd craving for orange juice. I could certainly use some of that good 'ole Florida orange juice, should be plenty since there havent been any tropical systems to blow the oranges down


Most oranges only bloom during the winter. They are just getting little green bumps. Same for most grapefruits. The avocado and mangos grow in the summer. See we have seasons, too! They made us cut down our two orange trees because of the Mediteranean fruit fly. I told them I was Norwegian, but it didn't make a difference. Most of Dade County and Broward county had to cut down all private trees. I miss them. I do have a small mango tree left and a lot of bananas. The call the variety manzanas which actually means apple in Spanish. Very good though. See my blog
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Fred making it back to TD status would be amazing considering all the obstacles he has been through. Fred had one vigorous COC. Imagine what he could of been if conditions had been favorable over the last 5 days or so.
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Quoting Grothar:


What good is an Arby's roast beef with cheese pouring out of the sides drippin on your shirt while you wash it down with a nice chocolate shake and curly fries. Oh, and as long as the weather stays nice and not storms blow by.


keeping things weather related, good call, but I have an odd craving for orange juice. I could certainly use some of that good 'ole Florida orange juice, should be plenty since there havent been any tropical systems to blow the oranges down
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Let's name everything 98L.....that makes things less confusing LOL.
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Quoting iceman55:
roast beef sandwiches


What good is an Arby's roast beef with cheese pouring out of the sides drippin on your shirt while you wash it down with a nice chocolate shake and curly fries. Oh, and as long as the weather stays nice and not storms blow by.
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I think some ice cold water melon and a glass of orange juice sound amazing right now. :D
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Quoting iceman55:

Shear looks to weaken quite a bit within 36hrs and there is going to be some decent divergence in place as well. Looks like there is still a small window of hope for X Fred. It is still possible that it could form into a TD or minimal TS before making landfall.
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Quoting iceman55:
chilling and eat arby's mmmm


with cheese melting?
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Quoting serialteg:


Boy is that a treat!


Hey serialteg, when I thought things were going the worst for me and my family, things just turned around for the better. What state are you in? Because things are bad all over. Try not to make a move unless it is something truly concrete. Uprooting is not always the wisest move. We have an old Norwegian saying my family always said, "If you think today is bad, wait until tomorrow!" It may sound like a downer, but we always laugh. There will always be someone who will help you at the last moment. I posted a quote the other night. I hope it will help!

Remember, if you ever need a helping hand, it's at the end of your arm, as you get older, remember you have another hand: The first is to help yourself, the second is to help others.
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718. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:



i mean the link too the main site that mode run was on

ahh.. jejeje i just only have the images... :P
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Quoting JRRP:

Link



i mean the link too the main site that mode run was on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114653

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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