98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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NOAA guide to downcasting (large .pdf)
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Yes we will, Taz. Bragging rights are on the table, my friend.



do you even no what you are even talking about ???
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Actually you predicted 70% chance of 4 named storms which is about 3. Which has been close.


Quoting Tazmanian:
+ that STS we had about a week a go



For about that. well that would of been 3 but its not named so its about half of what I expected. But September isnt finish as yet so.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
+ that STS we had about a week a go
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Quoting Weather456:


4 predicted for September and only 2 so far.

No October Outlook, just an outlook for remainder of the season.



ok so is your SEP outlook going has plan??
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Quoting Tazmanian:
. Weather456 what is your octer forcast??? and how did the SEP forcast plan out for you when you made it


4 predicted for September and only 2 so far.

No October Outlook, just an outlook for remainder of the season.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
. Weather456 what is your octer forcast??? and how did the SEP forcast plan out for you when you made it
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we will see oh ends up being right
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Its widely Known that FredEx is the Fifth Beatle...

No news on a comeback yet though.




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new centre trying to reforn with 98L near 16n 43w. there is evividence on sat pics of low clouds moving towards what is looking like a new llc
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I would not discount this October but from my experience in tracking hurricane seasons, it is difficult to get named October storms in El Nino years.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
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IMHO.....I believe hurricane season is over with except for the calendar passing and December 1st arriving. We all have alot to be thankful for.
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I think we will see a couple more storms in October. There's another MJO upswing then, and at least one of the traditional formation areas is outside the direct impact of el nino induced shear...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am forcasting 0 name storms for OCT


that is because you are a true downcaster, which basically means you will be wrong
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tk,

It really looks like the basin as a whole is quieting down. Last week there was activity just about everywhere; this weekend there's practically none. Makes me believe in MJO more than El Nino, because of the sudden cessation...
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am forcasting 0 name storms for OCT
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Quoting tkeith:
good!



yes that is vary vary good
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Quoting Tazmanian:
tuesday is the 1st day of fall
I'm ready for some cold fronts to make it down south...all the way to the coast.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i do not see any more name storms for SEP
good!
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tuesday is the 1st day of fall
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i do not see any more name storms for SEP
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good bye fred good by fred see you in a few years from now
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Wow on the Avila story....

I wonder who that "smartalec" in the State Department is....

And do u think it' because Mr. Avila's family backgound is Cuban? Would they have allowed Mr. Bevan or Mr. Pasch to attend?

Sheesh. Thought we were over this....
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Thanks for the fresh update Dr. Masters! Really good to see the Atlantic basin so quiet in mid-September. We can all thank El Nino for that since its repressed (to steal a word from Ike) development throughout the season.




thank you EL Nino
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Pat.. I look forward to it, thanks.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2521
Quoting markymark1973:
Dry air and shear win agian in 2009. We already knew X Fred was a fighter so i gave him a chance. 98L on the other hand got a good smacking yesterday with dry air and i knew it was toast. Looks like we might have to wait for October for any decent storms. If the hostile environment does not change in the coming weeks the 2009 season is over.
good point BUT dont think paatern will change the seasons is over
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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Dry air and shear win agian in 2009. We already knew X Fred was a fighter so i gave him a chance. 98L on the other hand got a good smacking yesterday with dry air and i knew it was toast. Looks like we might have to wait for October for any decent storms. If the hostile environment does not change in the coming weeks the 2009 season is over.
From the City of Charleston, SC Police Dept 1989 annual report sent by then Chief Greenberg to emergency workers who came to the area after Hugo: -
Media trucks lined up "out on the Battery" in advance of Hugo - They moved!

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I cant comment on that as well,its a dicey ,eggshell,political round of BS.



..Im glad you caught that too.

Im working with Randy Poindexter in the article as were having a Cuban Conference here in New Orleans soon...and I will post details of that in a Entry to my Blog soon.


I may also be able to address that "Avila" border thingee as well,then.
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Pat.. any idea why this happened?

Unable to attend the Summit was US meteorologist Lixion Avilia, from Miami, FL, who was detained in Dallas en route on his way to Monterrey, Mexico when he received a message from the US State Department ordering him not to attend the US-Cuba Hurricane Summit.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2521
Thanks for the fresh update Dr. Masters! Really good to see the Atlantic basin so quiet in mid-September. We can all thank El Nino for that since its repressed (to steal a word from Ike) development throughout the season.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
fred is dead at last


98L will follow
the seasons is dead too
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Quoting IKE:
Repression....

the classical defense mechanism that protects you from impulses or ideas that would cause anxiety by preventing them from becoming conscious.
,

Definitely Fred-ex and 98L.
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US-CUBA HURRICANE SUMMIT:

* Women and Cuba

US State Dept. Interferes with Historic Event
A historic meeting took place from May 23 through the 26th in Monterrey, Mexico as Cuban and US hurricane experts gathered to exchange ideas and information just as hurricane season began. However, one participant failed to appear, thanks to untimely interference by the US State Department. The US-Cuba Hurricane Summit was the first event of its kind. Wayne Smith of the Center for International Policy and co-coordinators WILPF member Randy Poindexter of NO-MAS (the New Orleans-Mariel Amistad Society) and another WILPF’er, Jay Higgenbotham of Society Mobile-La Habana, assembled participants from along the hard-hit Gulf Coast region to attend the summit.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.