98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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carnal camel...
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am looking forword too what kind of winter we will see this year with a vary odd summer we had this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
Quoting Weather456:
Viewed from the Banana River Viewing Site at NASA%u2019s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, space shuttle Discovery arcs through a cloud-brushed sky, lighted by the trail of fire after launch on the STS-128 mission.

August 25



August 28th actually, scrubbed on the 25th due to weather.
I was there for it, was an amazing way to turn 24 years of age. 11:59 PM EDT August 28th.
Next launch will be the Ares I-X, October 31st.
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113. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
oh.

oh.

Such the wrong time for me to walk in here...


Heck, I don't see half of the posts. Thanks to the ignore feature..lol.
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gecko...
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Quoting iceman55:
poof
POOF POOF!!!!
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oh.

oh.

Such the wrong time for me to walk in here...
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All NOAA Floater Imagery
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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My next Blog Entry will be issued at 6:00pm tomorrow afternoon. Sorry... have had a VERY busy weekend, and i have been sick.
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I am predicting VERY cold and snowy winters for the northeast, southeast, and midwest. Rainy and cool winters for the northwest and southwest. Cold and Icey for the south central plains.
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Quoting Drakoen:
El Nino years do not favor the development of systems like 98L or the regeneration of systems like 07L.



nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
weaterstudent and Sebastian,you have Mail from myself.

I encourage you to read it as It's been sent along to others as well.

You'll be surprised at what you dont know.

And I'd check it out before you all embarrass yourselves further.


Patrick
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El Nino years do not favor the development of systems like 98L or the regeneration of systems like 07L.
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Quoting presslord:
Proper English?!?!?!?!?! ROTFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I noticed that too but chose not to mention it for fear the "cave man" talk would start again.
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Viewed from the Banana River Viewing Site at NASA%u2019s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, space shuttle Discovery arcs through a cloud-brushed sky, lighted by the trail of fire after launch on the STS-128 mission.

August 25

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Fred took away our binky
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One can Follow NASA911 with the Shuttle Piggybacked on the Modified 747 Here.


FlightAware > Live Flight Tracker > NASA911


Aircraft Boeing Shuttle Carrier (quad-jet) (H/BSCA/G - track or photos)
Origin Amarillo Intl (KAMA - track or info)
Destination Carswell Field Arpt (KNFW - track or info)
Other flights between these airports
Route GTH MOTZA6 (Decode)
Date Sunday, Sep 20, 2009
Duration 1 hours 13 minutes
Status Scheduled
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
'I guess bloggers are upset including me,for the fizzling season, that brings boredom which increases bickering. In summary, besides warm SST, shear and dry air has been September's storms damper. Quite common in an "el nino" year.
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Heads up in Texas for a view of the Shuttle piggy-backed on the 747

The next leg of the ferry flight will take Discovery to the Fort Worth Naval Air Station in Texas after Takeoff from Amarillo momentarily.
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Quoting PcolaDan:

.


I agree, they sadly are.
Quoting iceman55:
no Anticyclone that why.



yup yup yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
Proper English?!?!?!?!?! ROTFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




they are both RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
Quoting WeatherStudent:



.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
84. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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Hey guys; If you go to the model page , there looks like some tropical weather on Wed and after is entering the gulf of mexico. If I am wrong let me know. The model map is the first page on wunderground . Animate and you will see.
Let me know what you think.
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Quoting presslord:
I'm over here Dan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ah! There you are, right next to
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Quoting presslord:
I'm over here Dan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



i see you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
im predicting a extra cold winter with all these troughs this early in the year shielding the united states from hurricanes.
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I'm over here Dan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting presslord:
so far...I seem able to circumvent his ban...


Are you sure? I don't see you.
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Quoting Prgal:

No problem. I guess I am not in a good mood today lol...he thinks he is the only one that speaks spanish here...man! He constantly uses words in spanish to offend people...arghh...anyway...will be back later.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
75. IKE
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Quoting Tazmanian:



why thank you for saying that and well said

No problem. I guess I am not in a good mood today lol...he thinks he is the only one that speaks spanish here...man! He constantly uses words in spanish to offend people...arghh...anyway...will be back later.
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Quoting presslord:
so far...I seem able to circumvent his ban...



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
so far...I seem able to circumvent his ban...
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Quoting iceman55:
98L HAVE no Anticyclone ;(



nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
Quoting tkeith:
I'm ready for some cold fronts to make it down south...all the way to the coast.


It looks like your wish will come true sooner then you think!




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Quoting Prgal:

Dude, you should try to learn to respect other people's opinions. You annoy people with your lack of respect to them...but then you demand respect for yourself? Grow up! Ohh, and then you flag, ban and report them? Pleeeease!



why thank you for saying that and well said
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
Quoting presslord:


Really?!?!?!?! Seriously?!?!?!?! You're actually telling someone to be objective?!?!?!?!?!

Taz has forgotten more than you'll ever know...



why thank you well said
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Flagged, banned, and reported. He terminado contigo de una buena vez por todas, infeliz.

Dude, you should try to learn to respect other people's opinions. You annoy people with your lack of respect to them...but then you demand respect for yourself? Grow up! Ohh, and then you flag, ban and report them? Pleeeease!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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