98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:
Is 'gecko' the Spanish word for 'schizo'?
This is one of the better quotes of the day. LOL
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there are many strange and unusal indiviuals some come as many but are only one
Agreed.
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Quoting aquak9:
Ahhh..a voice of reason. Hi Beell...nice to see you here.
yep
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Ahhh..a voice of reason. Hi Beell...nice to see you here.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


You are a stange young fella.
there are many strange and unusal indiviuals some come as many but are only one
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161. beell
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no not really weird low pressure dev and tracks up over that area in el nino winters all the time normally means powerful moisture laden systems for the season yet to come as it collides with colder air masses from the nw


yeah, what he said lol
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160. beell
The BAM may possibly be tracking a plume of moisture brought in to the central CONUS. In response to the strong W and SW flow around the base of a cut-offupper low forecast to set up shop for a few days.

Still some disagreement how far S and W it sits. Central Plains? 4-Corners? The farther S and W, the greater likelihood it could feed some moisture into this system and on out to the NE of the ULL.

Can't knock the BAM(s) too hard this year...
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Quoting aquak9:
Interesting thought, Taz. I believe it was the winter after Hugo, that we had such an ice and snowstorm for NorthEast Florida. Need to check the facts first...

Yep, we pretty much had to shut down the city.

Does this year's winter set-up compare to 1989?
i do beleive just as the cane season has been somewhat like the 1977 season that winter season 2009 we be the same as in 75 77 get the stats i havent had the time what ever 75 to 77 winter seasons were like expect the same for this year but as always things can and will change
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
You're my boy, Taz. I love ya.
You got mail
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For those who missed it. My country celebrated 26 years of independence which makes it the youngest/newest country in the Americas.

I celebrated this my including 2 blogs this weekend

History

Today

And a special blog

Photo Gallery



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Is 'gecko' the Spanish word for 'schizo'?
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Thanks for reading, Press. Like many others, I often feel like I am talking to myself. Sometimes, tho, the conversation seems more intelligent that way...

And that is why I asked, what this winter's set-up might be like.
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Thank god.. my Tee time is in about 45 minutes.. have fun guys.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Jeez....y'all really oughta lighten up some...he was just pointing out something interesting...
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Quoting Hurricane009:

Look at the BAMD model. Has it crossing the USA to the Atlantic Ocean. If it makes it, may be something to watch after it comes off the coast of North Carolina. That is weird/amazing
no not really weird low pressure dev and tracks up over that area in el nino winters all the time normally means powerful moisture laden systems for the season yet to come as it collides with colder air masses from the nw
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NASA Flight 911 is now Airborne again
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Quoting Hurricane009:
No, i am not being serious. I am not crazy!!...lol


haha I thought so, just checking :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Wow Aqua!!!!! Thank God that doesn't happen often...
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Yes i do know that the USA will probably kill it, but it could POSSIBLY re organize after it gets to the ATL Ocean


hey, are you being serious? you do realize how much of a trip that is? and only one of the models has it going that far, plus it will most likely get caught up with a trough if it even made it that far. you gotta realize that saying that has a possibility of organizing in the ATL is a little far fetched, imo
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting Hurricane009:
Yes i do know that the USA will probably kill it, but it could POSSIBLY re organize after it gets to the ATL Ocean


And so could fred...maybe next year...
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Quoting hcubed:


And, depending on your setting of the filter, sometimes you think you're talking to yourself...

Just to keep this post weather related, the season is NOT dead.

I live on the MS gulf coast. I don't unpack my hurricane supplies 'til the end of Nov.


A wise man here speaking from Obvious experience.

Thats always refreshing here.
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Quoting iceman55:
Hurricane009 .???.i try help that why


Are you Taz?
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Quoting Patrap:
weaterstudent and Sebastian,you have Mail from myself.

I encourage you to read it as It's been sent along to others as well.

You'll be surprised at what you dont know.

And I'd check it out before you all embarrass yourselves further.


Patrick
You have mail. Thanks.
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Quoting HellaGoose:
What is going on east of the Yucatan? Is the circulation going to make it into the GOM or going inland into mexico?


remnants from an upper low, now just weak mid-level cyclonic turning dominates the area. with upper diffluence and interaction with a near by trough helping to generate showers.

expected to move inland
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Press...we got 7-8 bridges running from north to south, kinda. Expected the first to shut around 10pm. But it went down around 6pm. It was Dec 22 or 23...then bing bang boom, only two bridges left, the two southern ones. I was working on the wrong side of the river, at the next to last bridge, then they shut it down. Was around 9pm, boss trying to get eight of us across the river, said "leave, go now, hurry and catch the last bridge.." about 10 miles further south.

Convoy, me in front (I was the only one who knew the way) eight cars, middle car an 18 year old who only got her license three days earlier. Dark. Icey. Sleeting. My temp gauge going up, up, car overheating, me praying SO HARD, God let me get these people home...

Temp cooled off, got to the last bridge, cops there. We were the last people to cross that bridge.

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Quoting IKE:


Heck, I don't see half of the posts. Thanks to the ignore feature..lol.


And, depending on your setting of the filter, sometimes you think you're talking to yourself...

Just to keep this post weather related, the season is NOT dead.

I live on the MS gulf coast. I don't unpack my hurricane supplies 'til the end of Nov.
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Quoting Hurricane009:

Look at the BAMD model. Has it crossing the USA to the Atlantic Ocean. If it makes it, may be something to watch after it comes off the coast of North Carolina. That is weird/amazing


Umm you don't think all that Green solid stuff in the Graphics won't have a detrimental effect on it?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Weather456:
Viewed from the Banana River Viewing Site at NASA%u2019s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, space shuttle Discovery arcs through a cloud-brushed sky, lighted by the trail of fire after launch on the STS-128 mission.

August 25



I got to see that launch as well, very beautiful, clear night launch, and the day before my birthday (29th) :)
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Aqua...I think you're right...I was dating a girl from J'ville at the time...she went nhome for a visit and reported that many of thre bridges were closed due to ice...
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Well after he mild season we have had.. the only hope I have for some weather fun is a decent snowfall for Florida :) oh yeah... and the East/West Carols also.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
What is going on east of the Yucatan? Is the circulation going to make it into the GOM or going inland into mexico?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


August 28th actually, scrubbed on the 25th due to weather.
I was there for it, was an amazing way to turn 24 years of age. 11:59 PM EDT August 28th.
Next launch will be the Ares I-X, October 31st.


right, my bad.
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Interesting thought, Taz. I believe it was the winter after Hugo, that we had such an ice and snowstorm for NorthEast Florida. Need to check the facts first...

Yep, we pretty much had to shut down the city.

Does this year's winter set-up compare to 1989?
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carnal camel...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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