98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
If we don't get anymore named storms then the Glosea climate forecast model would be confirmed.


yup yup yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Yall have a awesome afternoon
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212. JLPR
Quoting PcolaDan:
from Wikipedia article

Referendum Results (1967, 1993, and 1998)

Electoral results for Puerto Rican Status referenda, recorded as thousands of votes (% total). See page 4 of the Report By the President's Task Force On Puerto Rico's Status (December 2005)(site does't exist) for reference.
1967 1993 1998
Independence 4.2(0.6%) 75.6(4.5%) 39.8(2.5%)
Commonwealth 425.1(60.4%) 826.3 (48.9%) 5.0 (0.3%)
Statehood 274.3 (39.0%) 788.3 (46.6%) 728.2 (46.7%)
None of the above NA NA 787.9 (50.5%)
Electoral turnout 74% 71%


did you notice that None of the above won on the last one
That's the pro Association group, the option had a description of Pro Association they didn't like so they went with None of the Above
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting aquak9:
you were there, grothar? imagining we're close to the same age, then...are you still in Miami area?

Miami Herald used the largest size font on their headline, normally saved for declarations of war.

I wouldn't mind a LITTLE snow, as long as I'm on the same side of the river I live on.


After viewing your avatar, I am sure you are much younger than I. My mother's family settled Hollywood FL in the 20's. Born on Long Island, Lloyd Harbor. I grew up mostly in Europe, but lived in Coconut Grove mostly. I was living in Cutler Bay from 1990-93. Then have lived in Ft. Lauderdale ever since. Coral Ridge Isles.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25339
Even when Fidel dies, Cosmic....with his brother already in charge, I can't see too much changing after Fidel's death.
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207. IKE
12Z ECMWF is showing a change to fall in the next 10 days in the eastern USA.
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Quoting presslord:
OK...I'm confused...and I'm bein' serious here...but...

I thought Puerto Rico wanted US statehood, not independence...

I don't know but I can send a package with USPS there for the same price that I would send next door and get there at the same time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If we don't get anymore named storms then the Glosea climate forecast model would be confirmed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
from Wikipedia article

Referendum Results (1967, 1993, and 1998)

Electoral results for Puerto Rican Status referenda, recorded as thousands of votes (% total). See page 4 of the Report By the President's Task Force On Puerto Rico's Status (December 2005)(site does't exist) for reference.
1967 1993 1998
Independence 4.2(0.6%) 75.6(4.5%) 39.8(2.5%)
Commonwealth 425.1(60.4%) 826.3 (48.9%) 5.0 (0.3%)
Statehood 274.3 (39.0%) 788.3 (46.6%) 728.2 (46.7%)
None of the above NA NA 787.9 (50.5%)
Electoral turnout 74% 71%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR:


nope, statehood has never officially won
Puerto Rico always chooses a Free Association to the US for some reason :|
In other words to remain a Colony, ahh! who understands people lol
It is very simple people are afraid the United States wont accept a latin american state.
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202. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
The island is divided,half and half those that want autonomy and others that one independence,and the those that want statehood. But after 113 years under the american rule, we haven't had the opportunity to decide by a congressional law,what will be our destiny.


Actually with the American influence the Independence party has end up as a minority,
with the Pro statehood and the Pro Association parties having a fight with each other xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting aquak9:
you were there, grothar? imagining we're close to the same age, then...are you still in Miami area?

Miami Herald used the largest size font on their headline, normally saved for declarations of war.

I wouldn't mind a LITTLE snow, as long as I'm on the same side of the river I live on.

They have a font size even larger that they're saving for the day Fidel passes.
.
.
btw....the really teeny energy center from Fred-ex lives on at 25N, 73W. Viva Fred!!!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5525
Quoting JLPR:


Make that the smaller of the Greater Antilles only lol
we aren't part of the Lesser Antilles =P
it depends on the optical, if you look at Puerto within the larger antilles we are the smallest among the lesser we are the larger,that's a personal view, not the oficial.
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Quoting juslivn:


Since it was brought up, I have to say it...I live very close to where Groundhogs day was filmed. The B & B, square, and gazebo are in Woodstock, IL :)


Didn't know that, interesting. I figured it had to be some place nice. I don't remember Punxsutawney being that picturesue. No offense to our PA friends here!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25339
Quoting presslord:
OK...I'm confused...and I'm bein' serious here...but...

I thought Puerto Rico wanted US statehood, not independence...
The island is divided,half and half those that want autonomy and others that one independence,and the those that want statehood. But after 113 years under the american rule, we haven't had the opportunity to decide by a congressional law,what will be our destiny.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you were there, grothar? imagining we're close to the same age, then...are you still in Miami area?

Miami Herald used the largest size font on their headline, normally saved for declarations of war.

I wouldn't mind a LITTLE snow, as long as I'm on the same side of the river I live on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Every see the movie "Groundhog Day" Cold with intermittent snow and the same tomorrow. That is unless you live in "sunny South Florida"

There are some interesting thoughts on the winter this year.


Since it was brought up, I have to say it...I live very close to where Groundhogs day was filmed. The B & B, square, and gazebo are in Woodstock, IL :)
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Quoting aquak9:
thanks grothar, and keeper as well.

By the way, Keeper, Miami had snow in 1977.


I was here! In North Miami at the time. It was enough to stick on the grass. All the neighbors went outside and tried to make snowballs. I think the largest they got was enough to make a one frozen margarita!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25339
Quoting JLPR:
Its so quiet, that its creepy =P


Yes, but I'm enjoying the lack of wishcasting today. Talk of winter and independence days is easy on the eyes reading the blog today.
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Quoting Patrap:
NASA Flight 911 is now Airborne again


Good to see Discovery airborne again (although on a 747)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting presslord:
OK...I'm confused...and I'm bein' serious here...but...

I thought Puerto Rico wanted US statehood, not independence...
isn't it dependence
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
188. JLPR
Its so quiet, that its creepy =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
thanks grothar, and keeper as well.

By the way, Keeper, Miami had snow in 1977.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:



Flagged, banned, and reported. He terminado contigo de una buena vez por todas, infeliz.
Bye, bye to you too!
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185. JLPR
Quoting presslord:
OK...I'm confused...and I'm bein' serious here...but...

I thought Puerto Rico wanted US statehood, not independence...


nope, statehood has never officially won
Puerto Rico always chooses a Free Association to the US for some reason :|
In other words to remain a Colony, ahh! who understands people lol
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


You got it... Well done! LOL


Ive got more but dont think the good Doc would appreciate the other ones.... So Ill keep it clean
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183. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
Congratulations on your Independence DAY CELEBRATIONS, Saint Kitts and Nevis set a great example for many of us in the caribbean that are still a colony of a larger metropoly. IN my case, Puerto Rico, we still a colony of the most formidable super power that the world have ever known, after the Roman empire, the United States of America. I dream someday to join all the sister nations of the Caribbean and that the largest of the lesser antilles and the smallest of the larger antilles find redemption and freedom as well. Congratulations again !!!


Make that the smaller of the Greater Antilles only lol
we aren't part of the Lesser Antilles =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Grothar:


Airplane??


You got it... Well done! LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


Airplane??


yes, hilarious movie
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting presslord:
OK...I'm confused...and I'm bein' serious here...but...

I thought Puerto Rico wanted US statehood, not independence...


I went down there a couple of years ago and asked some people how they felt.. Unofficial survey of about 10 people and it was split down the middle.. So I think everyone is confused.. Not sure I would want to be a state of the US right now either.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Surely you cant be serious???? Yes Im serious... and quit calling me Sherly


Airplane??
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25339
OK...I'm confused...and I'm bein' serious here...but...

I thought Puerto Rico wanted US statehood, not independence...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Surely you cant be serious???? Yes Im serious... and quit calling me Sherly
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Quoting Weather456:
For those who missed it. My country celebrated 26 years of independence which makes it the youngest/newest country in the Americas.

I celebrated this my including 2 blogs this weekend

History

Today

And a special blog

Photo Gallery



Congratulations on your Independence DAY CELEBRATIONS, Saint Kitts and Nevis set a great example for many of us in the caribbean that are still a colony of a larger metropoly. IN my case, Puerto Rico, we still a colony of the most formidable super power that the world have ever known, after the Roman empire, the United States of America. I dream someday to join all the sister nations of the Caribbean and that the largest of the lesser antilles and the smallest of the larger antilles find redemption and freedom as well. Congratulations again !!!
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thank you, StormWatch.
No problem.
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Quoting aquak9:
Thanks for reading, Press. Like many others, I often feel like I am talking to myself. Sometimes, tho, the conversation seems more intelligent that way...

And that is why I asked, what this winter's set-up might be like.


Every see the movie "Groundhog Day" Cold with intermittent snow and the same tomorrow. That is unless you live in "sunny South Florida"

There are some interesting thoughts on the winter this year.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25339
172. beell
don't let this calm cool exterior fool you.
Any second...i could POP! Any second...yup...

Hey, aq/tk!
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Are you Taz?



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Note that I will not post Jeanne here please view it and comment at
My blog
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


You are a stange young fella.


I belief Pat made him an offer he couldn't refuse.
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Quoting presslord:
Is 'gecko' the Spanish word for 'schizo'?
This is one of the better quotes of the day. LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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