98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR:


there are 11 languages that are derived from latin
The Spanish speaking people in the America's (most Italians are in Italy) are called Latin Americans I never understood the real reason behind that xD

The idea that a part of the Americas has a cultural affinity with the Romance cultures as a whole can be traced back to the 1830s, in particular in the writing of the French Saint-Simonian Michel Chevalier, who postulated that this part of the Americas were inhabited by people of a "Latin race," and that it could, therefore, ally itself with "Latin Europe" in a struggle with "Teutonic Europe," "Anglo-Saxon America" and "Slavic Europe."[4] The idea was later taken up by Latin American intellectuals and political leaders of the mid- and late-nineteenth century, who no longer looked to Spain or Portugal as cultural models, but rather to France.[5] The actual term "Latin America" was coined in France under Napoleon III and played a role in his campaign to imply cultural kinship with France, transform France into a cultural and political leader of the area and install Maximilian as emperor of Mexico.
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Quoting JLPR:


there are 11 languages that are derived from latin
The Spanish speaking people in the America's (most Italians are in Italy) are called Latin Americans I never understood the real reason behind that xD

me either and most Carribean Spanish Speaker I know resent that trem because The Romans are Italian and the Romans spoke Latin.The word Hispanic makes no sense because Hispanics can be from multiple races.
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310. JLPR
Quoting Hurricane009:
where do you live??


Carolina, PR
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
308. JLPR
Power came back after a huge thunder xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
307. JLPR
Quoting gator23:

Italian is also derived from Latin so I guess Italians are Latin American too


there are 11 languages that are derived from latin
The Spanish speaking people in the America's (most Italians are in Italy) are called Latin Americans I never understood the real reason behind that xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
alright guys, im out!

time to play some volleyball :)

have a good one, see y'all tonight
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Quoting JLPR:


nope Spanish speaking people in this side of the world are known as Latin American
since Spanish is derived from Latin

I had left the computer and this message was un posted lol

Italian is also derived from Latin so I guess Italians are Latin American too
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Quoting leftovers:
interesting is we are getting to the time of yr carib. is favorable


the carib is favorable all season long, not this season, but in a normal season, the W Caribbean is always favorable from June to October.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting iceman55:
@^@


Hey, Ice! What does that symbol mean? @^@? Tired are we?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
300. beell
Possibly a t-wave missing off the surface charts. Along 57W, S of 20N. Interacting with the ULL just to the W. Very weak turning at/near 19N 58W and a little bit of an inverted V on visible and on the MIMIC-TPW product.

NAM wants to close off this wave on Wednesday near western Cuba. No other model support for this.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16732
Quoting Hurricane009:
hows everybodys local weather??


well you heard mine, but ill share again haha

Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Sep 20, 3:54 pm EDT

A Few Clouds

76 °F
(24 °C)
Humidity: 62 %
Wind Speed: E 13 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1014.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 62 °F (17 °C)
Heat Index: 78 °F (26 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
fred is dead
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Fred seems doomed to a life of being small, but I'm not so sure about this thing entering the GOM from the southeast. It has good lower level convergence, and very good upper level divergence. The models generally ignore this curious feature. Any thoughts from the gallery?




Any info on the pressures falling in the region? Think I'll take a look at the buoy info. I hate those things when they go through there!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
i do not think we will see any more name storms in SEP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting Hurricane009:
i said Mt. Baker at over 1000 inches


Look at post 282
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Fred seems doomed to a life of being small, but I'm not so sure about this thing entering the GOM from the southeast. It has good lower level convergence, and very good upper level divergence. The models generally ignore this curious feature. Any thoughts from the gallery?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
on a side note, and yes off topic, but for those of you from the Houston area, your Texans are involved in one of the most intense games ive seen in awhile. they are playing in some rain, that is left over from the GOM low from last week (thats my weather input)
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Quoting Grothar:


you get 1/2 a cookie. At least you were in the correct mountain range!!


yes! ha like the pun ;)
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha alright, ill let him get it, you got this Hurricane009


you get 1/2 a cookie. At least you were in the correct mountain range!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Quoting Grothar:
Weather records that include the size of a snowfall have been kept for only about 100 years, so we don't know the size of the heaviest snow of all time.
But in 1921, the heaviest daily snow on record struck Silver Lake, Colorado, dumping 76 inches of snow on that town in 24 hours!
The largest single snowstorm on record, though, fell on parts of Alaska in 1955. This storm lasted five days, and left over 175 inches of snow on the ground %u2014 that's more than 141/2 feet!
And if you don't like snow, stay away from Mt. Rainer, in the state of Washington. During the early 1970s, the heaviest annual snow on record, 1,224 inches, fell there in a 12-month period.


holy cow. and I'm happy when I get 6 inches of snow!
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Quoting Seasidecove:


I think I know where they turned it back on at! LOL


I know...I shouldn't complain at all on a tropics site, eh. Sorry, hope it's not too bad. Around here, we get our share of BAD flooding, too and I feel the pain for all.
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Weather records that include the size of a snowfall have been kept for only about 100 years, so we don't know the size of the heaviest snow of all time.
But in 1921, the heaviest daily snow on record struck Silver Lake, Colorado, dumping 76 inches of snow on that town in 24 hours!
The largest single snowstorm on record, though, fell on parts of Alaska in 1955. This storm lasted five days, and left over 175 inches of snow on the ground — that's more than 141/2 feet!
And if you don't like snow, stay away from Mt. Rainer, in the state of Washington. During the early 1970s, the heaviest annual snow on record, 1,224 inches, fell there in a 12-month period.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Quoting Grothar:


Wrong!!! But getting warmer. That was an official at one time. Besides, this is for Hurricane009. lol


haha alright, ill let him get it, you got this Hurricane009
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, like 1140 inches in one year


Wrong!!! But getting warmer. That was an official at one time. Besides, this is for Hurricane009. lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Quoting juslivn:
Yes, it's been 18 days here since it has rained. Someone turned off the spicket from earlier this summer when it rained every other day.


I think I know where they turned it back on at! LOL
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Mt. Baker, Washington???


yeah, like 1140 inches in one year
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Quoting beell:


maybe so, let it snow, let it snow


Hmmmm, close

"But the fire is so delightful,"
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
The only person repsonding to Drak posts are Taz and WeatherStudent.

Taz, Drak and WeatherStudent are the same person. Drak and WS a definetly the same person.



am not WS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting juslivn:
Northern Suburbs of Chicago 8 miles from WI border by the Chain o Lakes (Pistakee Bay).


ah ok, we arent too far apart

Quoting Hurricane009:
I live in Burgaw, NC. Trust Me, your rain is coming.


yeah I know
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Quoting Hurricane009:
I do too. Especially when it snows or ices a lot!


Hurricane, know what the record snowfall is for the U.S? If you guess, right you should be a meterologist?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
271. beell
Quoting PcolaDan:

Think this was meant as a joke.

"The weather outside is frightful..."


maybe so, let it snow, let it snow
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16732
Northern Suburbs of Chicago 8 miles from WI border by the Chain o Lakes (Pistakee Bay).
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catfish

I was joking
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267. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWO
ZONE PERTURBEE 02-20092010
16:00 PM Reunion September 20 2009
===================================

A 12:00 PM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather 02R (1008 hPa) located at 11.0S 84.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-southwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: 1.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.7S 82.5E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
Convection has dissipated equatorward but remains strong poleward. The system is still tracking west-southwest and is expected to encounter unfavorable conditions for further intensification on and after tonight (decreasing equatorward low level inflow and cooler sea surface temperatures).

THIS IS THELAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION

---
Number 2 already.. It must be almost winter again for northern hemisphere.. =P
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Quoting Catfish57:
Thanks, but I thought that rule only applied to "active periods" of hurricane season. When did this change take effect?

Think this was meant as a joke.

"The weather outside is frightful..."
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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