98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Agreed. You write very well, by the way!


Thank you WS. Very nice compliment. I try.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
YES!!!!


Read post 349
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting jurakantaino:
I'm glad I started a discussion , and it came out by the way many of the bloggers here refers to other nations that are affected by hurricanes besides the US. Just clarify some points of view in a time that there is nothing going on weather wise. Is always nice to learn something new.


By the way, did you ever look up Pancho Gonzales like I asked you the other night? The tennis player?
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Quoting iceman55:
Tazmanian how ?




2010 is not even here yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting Grothar:
Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, former Greenland are all considered Scandinavian. Because they share a common ancestry, languange, and history. Finland is considered part of Scandinavia, geographically, but they speak an unrelated language, different, ethnicity an culture. They are not Scandinavian by race. When different peoples from the region meet and unsure of the origin, one may ask "Are you Scandinavian" They will normally reply "yes, I am Norwegian, Swedish, etc. No one is offended because the distinction is made for clarity not racial or ethnic segregation. Try going to Italy and tell a northern Italian you are from the south of Italy. It is the same all over the world.

I am German, Norwegian, French, Italian and Greek. If someone makes an ethnic remark. The better watch out. So I would be considered a Teutonic-Scandinavian-Franco-Latin. Relax everybody. We are all just people!! That is the bottom line. Enjoy your ethnicity don't spend time defending it. TO ANYBODY!!!
I'm glad I started a discussion , and it came out by the way many of the bloggers here refers to other nations that are affected by hurricanes besides the US. Just clarify some points of view in a time that there is nothing going on weather wise. Is always nice to learn something new.
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Hopefully the UKMET office will be given much more attention in regards to the Glosea forecast model which is the basis of their predictions.
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Quoting iceman55:
i guess UK Met Office Atlantic Hurricane Season was rigth their said 6 named storms this year imo


Afternoon Folks.....Nice to see the tropics quiet for change in September...I hope that we get at least one more storm this season, hopefully a mild TS or fish storm, or we'll never hear the end of "I told you so's" from Stormt based upon a lucky guess..... :)
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Quoting iceman55:
i guess UK Met Office Atlantic Hurricane Season was rigth their said 6 named storms this year imo


They are extremely accurate - predicted 25 named storms in June 2005, 9 in June 2006, 12 in June 2007, 15 in June 2008.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
According to the CFS the the eastern U.S. and especially southeastern U.S. will have below average temperatures.
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Quoting iceman55:



low sheer in oct and nov wow





here 2010



vary un likey
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, former Greenland are all considered Scandinavian. Because they share a common ancestry, languange, and history. Finland is considered part of Scandinavia, geographically, but they speak an unrelated language, different, ethnicity an culture. They are not Scandinavian by race. When different peoples from the region meet and unsure of the origin, one may ask "Are you Scandinavian" They will normally reply "yes, I am Norwegian, Swedish, etc. No one is offended because the distinction is made for clarity not racial or ethnic segregation. Try going to Italy and tell a northern Italian you are from the south of Italy. It is the same all over the world.

I am German, Norwegian, French, Italian and Greek. If someone makes an ethnic remark. The better watch out. So I would be considered a Teutonic-Scandinavian-Franco-Latin. Relax everybody. We are all just people!! That is the bottom line. Enjoy your ethnicity don't spend time defending it. TO ANYBODY!!!
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Awwww......I wanted snow!!!


Sorry that was up to December this year. If you look further into January and February of next year you have below normal temps. This is an example of 1 model.

Also look at iceman image of the CFS which also agrees. Post 333
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
i think we may see 1 STS in OCT
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Hurricane, i'm back. Mind going on Tropics Chat?
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I want snow too, 009...but it's so rare here...
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343. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
JLPR cold air ;( here


its at 79F here :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Hurricane009:
Wetter as in Snow or Rain?


Read my comment again. I guess I was thinking someone would of ask that question so edited it. :)

I would like to add the climate models dont agree on temperature.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
338. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:



US T2m





that's interesting
we drop to neutral Before October
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting PcolaDan:

The idea that a part of the Americas has a cultural affinity with the Romance cultures as a whole can be traced back to the 1830s, in particular in the writing of the French Saint-Simonian Michel Chevalier, who postulated that this part of the Americas were inhabited by people of a "Latin race," and that it could, therefore, ally itself with "Latin Europe" in a struggle with "Teutonic Europe," "Anglo-Saxon America" and "Slavic Europe."[4] The idea was later taken up by Latin American intellectuals and political leaders of the mid- and late-nineteenth century, who no longer looked to Spain or Portugal as cultural models, but rather to France.[5] The actual term "Latin America" was coined in France under Napoleon III and played a role in his campaign to imply cultural kinship with France, transform France into a cultural and political leader of the area and install Maximilian as emperor of Mexico.
Yes , agree the best example the people of the United States c call themselves 'Americans, but Americans are everybody from this hemisphere, From Alaska to the Patagonia in Argentina. But the most dominant country takes over the name for themselves.
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335. JLPR
Quoting PcolaDan:


Hispanic: Over 2,200 years ago, when the Romans conquered the Iberian Peninsula, they renamed the place Hispania, which is better known now as España, or Spain . By 1500, Spanish Catholics, who had been in the process of reconquering the land from Spanish and North African Muslims, took their fight across the ocean to the Americas . What were Spanish colonies several centuries ago are today Mexico and the Spanish-speaking republics of the Caribbean and Central and South America. As an indicator of a common history and language, many people with roots in the Spanish-speaking Americas are referred to as Hispanic.


yep that's a nicer explanation xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Bordonaro- "you can't leave, all the doors are locked from the outside!"

Hilarious!!
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Expect the Southern United States to be wetter than normal and this typical of El Nino years but also the fact that every long-range model including the ECMWF, CFS, GloSea forecasts this. The northern Caribbean will remain drier than normal.

I've also seen some comments about snow but the temperature forecast for the SE USA seems near normal to slightly warmer than average.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting JLPR:


Hispanic would be from Spain, Spanish speaking people, since Spain was originally known as Hispania (don't know if there is a English translation to that).
If it weren't for Rome Spanish wouldn't exist since they brought Latin to The Iberian Peninsula were over the centuries Spanish was born with some other languages, some that have disappeared.


Hispanic: Over 2,200 years ago, when the Romans conquered the Iberian Peninsula, they renamed the place Hispania, which is better known now as España, or Spain . By 1500, Spanish Catholics, who had been in the process of reconquering the land from Spanish and North African Muslims, took their fight across the ocean to the Americas . What were Spanish colonies several centuries ago are today Mexico and the Spanish-speaking republics of the Caribbean and Central and South America. As an indicator of a common history and language, many people with roots in the Spanish-speaking Americas are referred to as Hispanic.
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330. Relix
Yeah it's been raining the WHOOOLLLEEE day quite hard in some cases here in Levittown PR =P
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328. JLPR
NWS posted this

Statement as of 4:04 PM AST on September 20, 2009

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
the following municipalities

in Puerto Rico
Carolina
San Juan
Loiza

* until 600 PM AST

* at 403 PM AST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
heavy showers and thunderstorms moving across the metropolitan area
this rainfall... in addition to the rainfall that occurred earlier
this afternoon is enough to cause additional flooding on area rivers
and streams in the warned area. Additional rainfall amounts of one
to two inches are possible from these storms.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting gator23:

me either and most Carribean Spanish Speaker I know resent that trem because The Romans are Italian and the Romans spoke Latin.The word Hispanic makes no sense because Hispanics can be from multiple races.


The English term Latin American actually is derived from the Spanish word latinoamericano, which was used by Spain and South Americans to distinguish itself from North America, by the way, it excluded Brazil. The term latino was used by Americans to describe anyone from the central or South American regions. In Spain we were always taught to say in response to the question "Where are you from" to say I am North American not American. norteamericano not americano, because it was an affront to South Americans who also rightly, considered themselves Americans as well. The terms hispanic was used more for census taking than racially segregating a group since North Americans are also multi-racial.
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Quoting gator23:

me either and most Carribean Spanish Speaker I know resent that trem because The Romans are Italian and the Romans spoke Latin.The word Hispanic makes no sense because Hispanics can be from multiple races.
Hispanics are people that come from countries that where once colonies of Espana,(SPAIN) which we inherit ,religion, language and culture.
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the 1856 keys hurricane, galveston in 1900, 1928 in okeechobee... closer to present time = Hugo, Andrew, Ivan, Katrina, Ike.

sure I missed some but those immediately come to mind.
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324. JLPR
Quoting gator23:

me either and most Carribean Spanish Speaker I know resent that trem because The Romans are Italian and the Romans spoke Latin.The word Hispanic makes no sense because Hispanics can be from multiple races.


Hispanic would be from Spain, Spanish speaking people, since Spain was originally known as Hispania (don't know if there is a English translation to that).
If it weren't for Rome Spanish wouldn't exist since they brought Latin to The Iberian Peninsula were over the centuries Spanish was born with some other languages, some that have disappeared.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting JLPR:
Power came back after a huge thunder xD
I was taken branches from my yard,I live in the west side of the Island. We had a very strong thurnder storm.
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Quoting gator23:

Italian is also derived from Latin so I guess Italians are Latin American too
Italians are latins from Europe; Italian , Rumanian , French, Spanish, Portuguese are all Romance languages, and comes from the language of the Empire that came to be THE language of the Catholic church.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Who was the most destructive hurricane ever??


that's too broad, 009. Nargis was horrid. But do you mean lives lost, damage to infrastructure, changes to coastlines?

Way too broad a question.
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Been a long time since I've seen peak season so lame.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.