Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1611 - 1561

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

1611. Grothar
3:43 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
We should not discuss religion on this blog. It is not the correct forum for such discussion. Passions run too deeply in religious matters. If any of you have read my bio, you know I teach Cultural Anthropology, which of course encompasses religious practices. If any of you would like to ask questions, off-blog, I shall be glad to share my papers with you. Most have been written in German, Norwegian or Swedish, but I shall glady translate them. We should NOT discuss anything here on this blog, please. I am sure most of you would agree.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
1609. cchsweatherman
3:39 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1608. Murko
3:36 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Fairly bizarre point of view. IMO.

Even if you're not religious, the 10 commandments are pretty good set of rules to live by. Man is a social animal. Basic decency is required to get along with one another.


The second commandment would not allow for any hurricane tracking: "You shall not make for yourself any carved image, or any likeness of anything that is in heaven above, or that is in the earth beneath, or that is in the water under the earth" LOL.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1607. PensacolaDoug
3:32 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting watcher123:
1582:

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.



Fairly bizarre point of view. IMO.

Even if you're not religious, the 10 commandments are pretty good set of rules to live by. Man is a social animal. Basic decency is required to get along with one another.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
1606. Grothar
3:32 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys


Remember, no "FOWL" language!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
1605. Yalahaman
3:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Thanks Dr. Masters! Tropics are quiet.Local weathermen here in central Fla. are not even mentioning Ex-Fred and it's impact on us.Exactly the reason I come here every morning and eve . I would like to thank all of you on here who help me to learn and understand weather ! You folks rock!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 107
1604. Grothar
3:28 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys


Dude! You're back. You were the topic of conversation this morning! Shows you how bad the tropics are!! We thought you messed-up again.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
1603. Murko
3:27 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting watcher123:
1582:

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.


Don't be rediculous. Morals were around long before religion, and are based on empathy, not some outdated rule book which no one really follows. There are Amazon tribes who have never heard of any god who have similar morals to everyone else. As to your first point, um, the USA?

Sorry, I don't want to clutter the blog with idiot religious rantings. If you want to discuss this, feel free to PM me.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1602. Grothar
3:24 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting watcher123:


1566:

Don't need flying cars, and don't really need a majority of the airline industry. It is a left-over relic of a past age. There is no good reason to have physical business trips when you have internet.

Not unless you have to punch somebody out!!!!
Can't do that electronically.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
1601. tkeith
3:24 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:
Oh boy.. religion and politics... this will turn into a fun Blog to watch today :)
lol
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8926
1600. Orcasystems
3:23 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Oh boy.. religion and politics... this will turn into a fun Blog to watch today :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1599. Patrap
3:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Care of children during disasters is focus of federal report

By Jonathan Tilove
September 20, 2009, 4:30AM


'Disasters don't strike on government's timetable,' said Mark Shriver, chairman of the National Commission on Children and Disasters.

The National Commission on Children and Disasters last week approved its 90-page interim report to President Barack Obama and Congress. The report identifies several shortcomings in disaster preparedness, response and recovery and provides recommendations designed to place children uppermost in future disaster planning efforts.

The recommendations include creating a national evacuee tracking and family reunification system, providing a safe and secure mass shelter environment for children, improving the capacity for child-care services in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, and ensuring that health-care professionals have adequate training in "pediatric disaster medicine."

"The most vulnerable Americans in the most vulnerable settings are made even more vulnerable by government inaction," said Mark Shriver, chairman of the commission. "Disasters don't strike on government's timetable, which means the time for government to act is now."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1598. IKE
3:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1597. lawntonlookers
3:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
For those that are talking about NASA and space flight try this link. A recent hearing on NASA funding and future.

NASASPACEFLIGHT

Link
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
1595. Cavin Rawlins
3:16 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1594. Ameister12
3:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting Hurricane009:
GOOD MORNING ALL!!!

Good morning, Hurricane009.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
1591. Ameister12
3:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Fred is finally dead! I was getting tired of him.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
1590. IKE
3:09 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting swampliliy:
Good morning all!

IKE- thanks VERY much for posting that Neil Young link. Brought back loads of memories. (yes I'm AARP eligible too) LOL


You're welcome.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1589. Ameister12
3:09 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Good morning!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
1588. presslord
3:08 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Pat...that is a sad reality...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
1587. swampliliy
3:08 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Good morning all!

IKE- thanks VERY much for posting that Neil Young link. Brought back loads of memories. (yes I'm AARP eligible too) LOL
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 7 Comments: 7290
1586. Patrap
3:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
98L 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1585. BurnedAfterPosting
3:05 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
98L has not been deactivated as an invest, whoever said that is spewing out incorrect information
1584. Patrap
3:04 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting presslord:
Pat...check out some independent evaluations of that...NASA is hardly an unbiased source...


Well.the option is moot,lag behind in Heavy Launch,or manned flight..and the Chinese will be on the Moon and off to Mars .

Id pick up a good Chinese Linguistics tutor if we go that route.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1582. Murko
3:02 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting watcher123:
1566:

This will give rise to a self organizing, self emergent collective utopia, without the failures or fallacies of communism or socialism.


And the faliures and fallacies of religion?
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1581. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
98L 00 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1579. presslord
2:59 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Pat...check out some independent evaluations of that...NASA is hardly an unbiased source...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
1578. caneswatch
2:58 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting jurakantaino:
Well, shear will kill any attempt for system to form in the tropics. So what will be interesting is to see how can a system develop under this hostile conditions on the final 8 weeks of the hurricane season.


Look at post 1475, the CFS' shear forecast lowers the shear while there's an upward MJO.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1577. Patrap
2:56 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
NASA Publishes Report About International Space Station Science
Thu Sep 10, 2009 10:43am EDT



HOUSTON, Sept. 10 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Advances in the fight against
food poisoning, new methods for delivering medicine to cancer cells, and
better materials for future spacecraft are among the results published in a
NASA report detailing scientific research accomplishments made aboard the
International Space Station during its first eight years.

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20081007/38461LOGO)

The report includes more than 100 science experiments ranging from bone
studies to materials' research.

"This report represents a record of science accomplishments during assembly
and summarizes peer-reviewed publications to date," said Julie Robinson,
program scientist for the station at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston.
"As we enter the final year of station assembly, this report highlights the
capabilities and opportunities for space station research after assembly is
complete."

One of the most compelling results reported is the confirmation that the
ability of common germs to cause disease increases during spaceflight, but
that changing the growth environment of the bacteria can control this
virulence. The Effect of Spaceflight on Microbial Gene Expression and
Virulence experiment identified increased virulence of space-flown Salmonella
typhimurium, a leading cause of food poisoning. New research on subsequent
station missions will target development of a vaccine for this widespread
malady.

Another experiment produced a potential medical advance, demonstrating a new
and powerful method for delivering drugs to targets in the human body.
Microgravity research on the station was vital to development of miniature,
liquid-filled balloons the size of blood cells that can deliver medicine
directly to cancer cells. The research was conducted for the
Microencapsulation Electrostatic Processing System experiment.

One of the most prolific series of investigations aboard the station tests how
spacecraft materials withstand the harsh space environment. The results of the
Materials International Space Station Experiment already have been used to
develop solar cells for future commercial station cargo ships. This experiment
has significantly reduced the time needed to develop new satellite systems,
such as solar cells and insulation materials, and paved the way for materials
to be used in new NASA spacecraft such as the Orion crew capsule.

The report compiles experiment results collected from the first 15 station
missions, or expeditions, from 2000 to 2008. Results of some of the summarized
investigations are complete. Preliminary results are available from other
continuing investigations.

NASA's research activities on the station span several scientific areas,
including exploration technology development; microgravity research in the
physical and biological sciences; human physiology research; Earth science and
education.

The report details 22 different technology demonstrations; 33 physical science
experiments; 27 biological experiments; 32 experiments focused on the human
body; Earth observations and educational activities. In addition to science
important to long-duration human spaceflights, most findings also offer new
understanding of methods or applications relevant to life on Earth.

In 2008, station laboratory space and research facilities tripled with the
addition of the European Space Agency's Columbus Laboratory and the Japan
Aerospace Exploration Agency's three Kibo scientific modules, adding to the
capabilities already provided in NASA's Destiny Laboratory. In 2009, the
number of crew members increased from three to six, greatly increasing crew
time available for research.

The stage is set for increased station scientific return when assembly and
outfitting of the research facility is completed in 2010 and its full
potential as a national and international laboratory is realized. Engineers
and scientists from around the world are working together to refine
operational relationships and build on experiences to ensure maximum use of
the expanded capabilities.

The International Space Station Program Scientist Office at NASA's Johnson
Space Center published the report. A link to the full NASA Technical
Publication, which provides an archival record of U.S.-sponsored research
through Expedition 15, is available at:

http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20090029998_2009030907.pdf

For more information about the space station, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/station

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1576. Murko
2:54 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting jurakantaino:
I agree with Moore's law, even if it sound like science fiction it will be technologically possible.But first humanity need to survive "self destruction quest". The thirst for power and control of the world among the Nations,will eventually take us to dooms day.


Moore's Law doesn't take into account the wavelength of the electrons used to pass information along. There's only so small you can go. They will be running into this problem in less than 10 years.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1575. tornadodude
2:53 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting sebastianflorida:
who will be the next person to give us a situation that if ex fred does this and that he can make it and hit Florida?


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
1574. presslord
2:52 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Dak...LOL...I stand corrected...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
1572. jurakantaino
2:50 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting caneswatch:


I don't see why not.
Well, shear will kill any attempt for system to form in the tropics. So what will be interesting is to see how can a system develop under this hostile conditions on the final 8 weeks of the hurricane season.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
1569. sebastianflorida
2:48 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
who will be the next person to give us a situation that if ex fred does this and that he can make it and hit Florida?
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 710
1568. presslord
2:48 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting Dakster:
I'd say we do it together for the benefit of all.. But that is rational thinking again. Just like the ISS...


the sad fact is that virtually no useful science has come from the ISS...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
1567. Cavin Rawlins
2:47 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Orca,

goat water is a stew made from goat meat but you can use mutton. It is spicy and have the consistency of clam chowder.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1566. Dakster
2:47 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Sorry Presslord. No jetpacks yet. But you can surf for porn 20 times faster than 10 years ago.

I still keep waiting for the car that will fly too.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10313
1564. sebastianflorida
2:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
FRED DIED! this is great news, I am sure we all love it!
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 710
1563. Dakster
2:44 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
I'd say we do it together for the benefit of all.. But that is rational thinking again. Just like the ISS...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10313
1562. jurakantaino
2:42 PM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting Dakster:


Would be neat... But you think it is only 20-30 years away? I would have guessed further away.
I agree with Moore's law, even if it sound like science fiction it will be technologically possible.But first humanity need to survive "self destruction quest". The thirst for power and control of the world among the Nations,will eventually take us to dooms day.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

Viewing: 1611 - 1561

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
75 °F
Scattered Clouds