Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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1261. Dakster
Quoting presslord:
Why don't you go over to bridge City, TX, and look up a friend of mine named Dicki Uzzle? He's the Fire Chief there...tell HIM Ike was not a major hurricane...


Knowing Fire Chiefs and with a name like Dicki Uzzle, I would like to see that meeting. Heck, I'd bring a video camera to that...and a floor scraper.
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Why don't you go over to bridge City, TX, and look up a friend of mine named Dicki Uzzle? He's the Fire Chief there...tell HIM Ike was not a major hurricane...
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1259. Dakster
KerryinNOLA: LOL...

Every once in awhile I get my neighbors going by putting up the shutters and taking out gas cans, test firing the generator..
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1258. Patrap
FredEx 00 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
1257. Grothar
Quoting Seasidecove:
Since 1953, the following seasons have had no names retired from that season: 1953, 1956, 1958, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1993, 1994, 1997 and 2006.


Seasidecove, you and I must have attended the same school? Do you count 18 as well? If we must play by the rules, wouldn't one assume the answer should be correct when given?
For instance, when a question is posed on how long the "100 years War lasted, the correct answer would be 116 years, precisely. Shall we move on?
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1256. Dakster
NHC's Mission:
Mission
(Why We Exist)
To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic

efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings,

forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical

weather, and by increasing understanding

of these hazards through global outreach.

Cater to the Users of WeatherUndergroud.
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Quoting presslord:


Did you miss the whole Ike thing last year? Really...get some help...


or Hurricane Gustav?
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1252. Patrap
FredEx 00 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
1251. JLPR
98L looking really sad before blackout =P
lets see how it looks after it


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1250. Dakster
Quoting Skyepony:
or this trough.. we've had really neat clouds, sunset color was a rare shade..


Yeah, the colors in South Florida have been neat. Although tonight it looked like Tornado weather. The color was so surreal.

It was a break from the RAIN ALL DAY LONG here.
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Quoting reedzone:


You could be right, even though it's yet again blowing new convection, it just isn't going. It would put the blog to rest :)
The NHC is not in the business of "doing this blog a favor."
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1248. Patrap
98L 00 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
1247. Skyepony (Mod)
or this trough.. we've had really neat clouds, sunset color was a rare shade..
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1246. Skyepony (Mod)
I thought that may be chaff.. Surprised the local (MLB) confirms..

ONLY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER EC FL AND ADJACENT ATLC ARE
NON-PRECIPITATION ECHOES AT THIS TIME. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SMOKE
PLUME ACROSS NW VOLUSIA/N LAKE AND EASTERN MARION FINALLY APPEARS TO
BE THINNING. AND ECHOES OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY ARE LIKELY CHAFF.
HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE INTERIOR BUT KEPT A 20% POP FOR
THE COAST AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLC
PREFERABLY ALG CONVERGENT LINES...AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING A
FEW TO THE COAST.

$$

KELLY


I'm using restraint in not ranting about having clouds of god knows what being sprayed about.. Wonder if it has anything to do with Fred-ex..
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Quoting Seasidecove:
BahaHurican--

"Storms change names from ATL to PAC because it is a different basin. Storms that pass from EPac to CPac to WPac generally keep the same name. Best example I can remember is the longlived hurricane John of 1994. Here is what I found at wikipedia abt this storm."


Thanks for the info, I didn't know, that as althought it is the Pacific Basin as a whole.

As to whether since we had East Pacific, Central Pacfic, and Far East Pacific Cyclone offices, as to whether the East/Central might be different as far as naming goes from that of the Far East Pacific. Thankx Again! :-)
I know each area operates its own list of names. But when one crosses into the other[s], the name is continued. I suppose it would be true of the ATL / EPac, but most of the time storms just don't survive the crossing. So they get redesignated...
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Quoting IKE:
In all seriousness, the NHC would do this blog a big favor by dropping the remnant trough on the next TWO. There's nothing left to keep giving it a yellow circle.


You could be right, even though it's yet again blowing new convection, it just isn't going. It would put the blog to rest :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1242. Patrap
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.

Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

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During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.


98L 00 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Quoting WeatherStudent:
It's absolutely surreal to think that this country might go 4 consecutive years, back-to-back without receiving the direct impact of a major cane; however, when we are finally threaten by a major hurricane, I dred and fear to say, that it'll prob be a catastrophic one. A final FYI: of course, the last major cane to affect the Conus was Hurricane Wilma, on Oct. 21st, 2005, which affected SW Florida, as we all remember. In closing, time will tell, we'll see what materializes. This period of extraordinary luck will end, my fear is that when it does come to an end, when ever that just happens to be that is, it'll be in a very, very big way. Thoughts, everyone?


Did you miss the whole Ike thing last year? Really...get some help...
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1240. Dakster
IKE - Either that or color the WHOLE basin in yellow. Afterall, yellow means 0%-30%.
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1239. IKE
In all seriousness, the NHC would do this blog a big favor by dropping the remnant trough on the next TWO. There's nothing left to keep giving it a yellow circle.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


YOur an example why i hate many on the F'n blog!
don't worry about him tampa; he has been singling u out since yesterday for some reason? he never has any decent ?'s or facts to add to this blog. hopefully admin will ban him soon!
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 104
1236. Grothar
Theoretically, a hurricane or tropical storm of any strength can have its name retired; retirement is based entirely on the level of damage caused by a storm. However, until 1972, no Category 1 hurricane had its name retired, and no named tropical storm had its name retired until 2001. This is at least partially due to the fact that weaker storms tend to cause less damage, and the few weak storms that have had their names retired caused most of their destruction through heavy rainfall rather than winds.

Since 1953, 73 storms have had their names retired. Of these, two (Carol and Edna) were reused after the storm for which they were retired but were later retroactively retired, and two others (Hilda and Janet) were included on later lists of storm names but were not reused before being retroactively retired. Historical records are unclear on the status of Gracie from the 1959 season. The official NHC site does not report Gracie as a retired name,[2] but it is widely referred to as retired, including by other official sources.[3]

If all the names on a season's normal list are used up, storms are then named after the letters of the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc.) Unlike the normal names, these cannot be retired. If a storm with a Greek name manages to reach the strength and have the impact that would otherwise lead to retirement, the Greek letter would be listed among the retired names with a footnote stating that the name would still be in use for future storms.

Since 1953, the following seasons have had no names retired from that season: 1953, 1956, 1958, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1993, 1994, 1997 and 2006.

Count em 18 not 17
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1235. Dakster
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
So you're saying exFred is going to pull a Katrina? What do you base this on? Should I go to Home Depot for supplies now? Why are the local mets saying nothing?


Ummm. The j/k at the end means JUST KIDDING. Ike and I were having a little tit for tat...
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Since 1953, the following seasons have had no names retired from that season: 1953, 1956, 1958, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1993, 1994, 1997 and 2006.
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1231. will40
IKE check mail
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
Is there a link to see spaghetti model tracks for the three invests?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes in the GOM....Its just my opinion...there is a cold front coming that will erode the West side of the High and also a MidLevel spin coming out of the Caribbean into the GOM about the same time.....as those that have read my WebSite update the combination of the 3 i am calling the minature Perfect Storm.


and if this was to happen, you would say it would go to the eastern or western side of the GOM?
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1228. Grothar
Quoting AllStar17:
***9/19/2009 Tropics Question of the Day FINAL RESULTS***
A - 3
B - 6 (Majority = Final Answer)
C - 3
D - 1



Want to look over the answer again Allstar?
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1226. will40
Ha Ha Ike
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
1225. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Wow.. You are taking it seriously, evacuating all the way back to the United States...


Yup...we're lettin em have it.


Quoting will40:
Dont bring you know who bud with ya lmao


He's the only one left in south Florida. He's sitting in a lounge chair on the beach waiting for it.
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1224. Jerrob
Quoting IKE:
Buoy 41047, right near the remnant, is capturing the full effects of the remnant trough/artist, formerly known as Fred....

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 84 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.9 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.2 %uFFFDF




I wonder if Floridians are putting up their shutters tonight?
LOL! no we are not!
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Fred = Pop-up Thunder showers, typical coastal afternoon shower. They pop up rain heavy for about 30 min to an hour then disappear, only to reappear the next day around the same time.

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Quoting tacoman:
reed you still trying to pull fred from his grave let him RIP..
i see pink taco still has nothing informative to type.
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 104
1221. IKE
Last visible before blackout. Fred is the baby spec, centered near 26N and 71W. I zoomed in for the full effects....

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1220. will40
Quoting IKE:


Yup...they all headed to Tennessee and points north. I've boarded up and will be leaving early AM.
Dont bring you know who bud with ya lmao
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
***9/19/2009 Tropics Question of the Day FINAL RESULTS***
A - 3
B - 6 (Majority = Final Answer)
C - 3
D - 1

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1218. Dakster
Quoting IKE:


Yup...they all headed to Tennessee and points north. I've boarded up and will be leaving early AM.


Wow.. You are taking it seriously, evacuating all the way back to the United States...
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1216. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
IKE - Only for those that have an insurance mitigatrion inspection...

Have they started evac'ing your area for Cat 5 Fred yet?


Yup...they all headed to Tennessee and points north. I've boarded up and will be leaving early AM.
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1214. Dakster
IKE - Only for those that have an insurance mitigatrion inspection...

Have they started evac'ing your area for Cat 5 Fred yet?
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Dakster..cute.. Ike, I am not :p
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ok baha and grother give me an example of one going from the atlantic into the pacific and what that does with the name change. Thanks you guys are helping me learn and making me laugh all at the same time!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.